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If Ashara =Lemore, what's the sequence of events?


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Hmm, there seems to be a relevant historical parallel.
Brandon Stark + Wylla Fenn = Lonnel Snow

So perhaps something like this is true?
Brandon Stark + Wylla = Jon Snow

Wylla may have hidden as the Fisherman's Daughter and was said to be Jon's mother.
Lemore hides as a Merchant's Daughter and seems to have Dark Brown hair like Jon. 

Ashara was said to have Dark hair while Lyanna likely had Brown hair. 
Which makes it seem like we are supposed think Jon's mother was either Ashara or Lyanna, if there isn't actually another woman named Wylla.

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3 hours ago, Narsil4 said:

Hmm, there seems to be a relevant historical parallel.
Brandon Stark + Wylla Fenn = Lonnel Snow

So perhaps something like this is true?
Brandon Stark + Wylla = Jon Snow

Wylla may have hidden as the Fisherman's Daughter and was said to be Jon's mother.
Lemore hides as a Merchant's Daughter and seems to have Dark Brown hair like Jon. 

Ashara was said to have Dark hair while Lyanna likely had Brown hair. 
Which makes it seem like we are supposed think Jon's mother was either Ashara or Lyanna, if there isn't actually another woman named Wylla.

I think it's safe to say Lyanna is the mother of Jon Snow.  Brandon, I suspect, is the father.  Jon is much older.  Lyanna had a second baby bastard at the TOJ and that one did not live. 

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On 2/25/2020 at 6:28 PM, lehutin said:

This is basically the Order of the Greenhand's theory, and it's terrible. The motivation for Jon's Dalla-Gilly baby swap is clear:

  1. Jon tells Gilly that Dalla's son is at risk of being given to Melisandre's flames.
  2. Gilly requests that she take both babies away with her.
  3. Jon explains that she can't do that because then the Queen's Men will hunt her down and burn all 3 of them.
  4. So the baby swap works because Melisandre and the Queen's Men are expecting 1 baby to stay at Castle Black, but they aren't sure which baby is which.

In contrast, the Order of the Greenhand's baby swap is completely gratuitous and unnecessary. If the objective is to protect "R+L=YG," then why is a baby swap needed at all? Just give "R+L=YG" to Howland Reed, who

  • lives in the North
  • in a castle that moves
  • with no maester, knights, or master-at-arms

Simple and safe. Ned can even visit his "nephew" from time-to-time on the pretext of talking to an old friend/vassal.

 

The only reason for the YG + Jon baby swap is that the Order of the Greenhand needs a way to get "R+L=YG" from Dorne to Essos. The swap is just a conceit to make their headcanon work, nothing more.

Sending a Targaryen bastard to live among the Frogeaters is highly inappropriate.  Look, maybe Ned wasn't exactly down with the plan but went along for the sake of his love for Ashara.  He's thinking, what harm can it do.  Robert is a strong man and the future young man is no threat from across the sea.  He has little resources to work with.  I would also not put it past Ashara to promise that no claim would be made.  At least, not from the young man under her charge.  That would of course change if Ned and Robert were to die.  Ashara Lemore has her game while Varys, Oberyn, Sealord, and Willem Darry have theirs.  The men owed nothing to Ned and cared little for Robert.  So yes, they would put forth their own claim, or that of Viserys rather.  The death of Ned Stark released Ashara from this promise.  At least in her mind.  

Behavior has a pattern.  Ned Stark risked his own family in order to avoid the deaths of Cersei and her children.  Is it not easy to believe this same man would do the same for the Targaryen children years ago?  I say it is.  Ned and Jon, Stark men who saved babies from the Baratheons.  Ned saved the son of a former adversary, Rheagar, from his Baratheon ally. Jon saved the son of Mance, a former adversary, from his Baratheon ally, Stannis.  History repeating itself in a masterfully crafted manner.  

 

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7 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Sending a Targaryen bastard to live among the Frogeaters is highly inappropriate.

Because...why?

 

Honestly it seems like the only reason it's "highly inappropriate" is that the much easier and much safer solution of sending YG to Howland Reed conflicts with your (and the Order's) headcanon of a gratuitous babyswap whose only purpose is to get YG from Dorne to Essos.

7 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Look, maybe Ned wasn't exactly down with the plan but went along for the sake of his love for Ashara.

Right, Ned loved Ashara so much that...he never, ever thinks of her in any of his POV chapters. Not once. Not even in his final chapter in the Black Cells when he dreams of the Tourney at Harrenhal.

 

7 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Ned Stark risked his own family in order to avoid the deaths of Cersei and her children.  Is it not easy to believe this same man would do the same for the Targaryen children years ago?

Of course it's easy to believe that. Ned Stark raised R+L=J as his own "bastard" son.

 

But see the difference between what happened and your headcanon? Ned Stark brought Jon back to Winterfell with him and watched over him until Jon went to the Night's Watch. Jon was safe with Ned.

 

If the problem/concern was that YG's Targaryen look makes Ned claiming fathership too farfetched, then send. The. Kid. To. Howland. Reed. Who lives in the North (like Ned). In a floating castle that moves. With no maester, men-at-arms, or knights.

 

"Frogeater" is a derogatory slur against the Crannogmen that Ned personally would never use, so really, your claim of "inappropriateness" is ridiculous on its face.

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On 2/27/2020 at 3:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

My suspicion is that there is a secret tied in with Ashara and Starfall that Eddard is keeping which may very well be in addition to the truth of Jon's parentage.

Glad someone here agrees with my logic here!  I am trying to stay on topic, so I won't elaborate in this thread on my irresponsible speculations as to exactly what that might be save to say that, I find the idea of 2 northmen and a baby traversing the prince's pass  and then the mountains without any Dornishmen in their party to be somewhat unlikely. 

On 2/27/2020 at 4:05 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

If Ashara was the one who informed Ned where he could find Lyanna, he might feel especially honor-bound to inform her of how he and Howland killed her brother. I do expect though that she knew about Jon Snow, since Ned would have brought him from the tower and left with Wylla as his wetnurse.

Yes I do believe it possible that she made contact with Eddard earlier in the war.  I don't take it for granted that Arthur was killed though.  Certainly Jon was part of it all. 

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On 2/25/2020 at 7:28 PM, lehutin said:

This is basically the Order of the Greenhand's theory,

:uhoh:

On 2/25/2020 at 7:28 PM, lehutin said:

and it's terrible.

Not surprising, all their stuff is just terrible and complete nonsense. 

On 2/25/2020 at 7:28 PM, lehutin said:

The motivation for Jon's Dalla-Gilly baby swap is clear:

  1. Jon tells Gilly that Dalla's son is at risk of being given to Melisandre's flames.
  2. Gilly requests that she take both babies away with her.
  3. Jon explains that she can't do that because then the Queen's Men will hunt her down and burn all 3 of them.
  4. So the baby swap works because Melisandre and the Queen's Men are expecting 1 baby to stay at Castle Black, but they aren't sure which baby is which.

In contrast, the Order of the Greenhand's baby swap is completely gratuitous and unnecessary. If the objective is to protect "R+L=YG," then why is a baby swap needed at all? Just give "R+L=YG" to Howland Reed, who

  • lives in the North
  • in a castle that moves
  • with no maester, knights, or master-at-arms

Simple and safe. Ned can even visit his "nephew" from time-to-time on the pretext of talking to an old friend/vassal.

 

The only reason for the YG + Jon baby swap is that the Order of the Greenhand needs a way to get "R+L=YG" from Dorne to Essos. The swap is just a conceit to make their headcanon work, nothing more.

:agree:

The suggested baby swap doesn’t work at all, it’s just contrived fan fic. But some readers are sooooooo desperate for an(y) alternative to R+L=J that they’re willing to twist the story into a pretzel and go through absurd amounts of mental gymnastics, as long as the result is anything but Rhaegar being Jon’s father. Even totally ridiculous ideas, like Brandon and Lyanna are Jon’s parents have been put forth and, worse, have support among readers. As long as there’s no precious Targ blood in Jon. :lol:

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8 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Not surprising, all their stuff is just terrible and complete nonsense. 

See, you lose me when you use superlatives like all.  Yes, most of their theories are just completely wrong-headed, but some of their insights and the connections they make sometimes are pretty good even if they fumble it on the 10 yard-line by making bassackward conclusions just to be unique or to fit their predetermined conclusion.  Sometimes they get it right, though.  Their Littlefinger series is actually pretty good.     

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On 2/25/2020 at 6:28 PM, lehutin said:

This is basically the Order of the Greenhand's theory, and it's terrible.

I'd try a more conciliatory approach.  Note that I agree with you on the substance of your arguments.  But the thing is, you don't need to convince me, you need to convince people who likely had watched TOotGH's vid and agreed with it.  Do you really think that starting your argument like this is going to convince those people?  No, it is only going to upset them and put them on the defensive.  I get it; they make a lot of videos seemingly for the purpose or being different for different's sake, rather than to find the truth buried in the text.  

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11 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

:uhoh:

Not surprising, all their stuff is just terrible and complete nonsense. 

:agree:

The suggested baby swap doesn’t work at all, it’s just contrived fan fic. But some readers are sooooooo desperate for an(y) alternative to R+L=J that they’re willing to twist the story into a pretzel and go through absurd amounts of mental gymnastics, as long as the result is anything but Rhaegar being Jon’s father. Even totally ridiculous ideas, like Brandon and Lyanna are Jon’s parents have been put forth and, worse, have support among readers. As long as there’s no precious Targ blood in Jon. :lol:

This.  The contingent of people on this board who want so badly for R+L=J to not be true are desperate for any alternative, no matter how absurd.  I've yet to come across any alternative theory that wasn't complete and utter wishful thinking.  It's comical at this point, because R+L=J is a certainty....it's not a theory at this point.

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52 minutes ago, acwill07 said:

This.  The contingent of people on this board who want so badly

You're not going to convince them by pointing and laughing.  Engage or don't.  Your post only makes it clear to me that you don't understand why they support the ideas they support.  Try some empathy.  They may teach you something, and by engaging in the conversation, you may be able to break through to them too.  

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6 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

See, you lose me when you use superlatives like all.  Yes, most of their theories are just completely wrong-headed, but some of their insights and the connections they make sometimes are pretty good even if they fumble it on the 10 yard-line by making bassackward conclusions just to be unique or to fit their predetermined conclusion.  Sometimes they get it right, though.  Their Littlefinger series is actually pretty good.     

I said “all” because I meant “all”. It was poorly phrased, however, because I haven’t watched all their videos. So, the proper way to put it would be, out of the ones I did watch, all were absurdly terrible. 

2 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

You're not going to convince them by pointing and laughing.  Engage or don't.  Your post only makes it clear to me that you don't understand why they support the ideas they support.  Try some empathy.  They may teach you something, and by engaging in the conversation, you may be able to break through to them too.  

Have you considered the possibility that maybe  @acwill07 wasn’t trying to convince anyone? I’d also argue that you’re being a bit conceited when you say, “your post only makes it clear to me that you don’t understand why they support the ideas they support”. I mean, you’re doing the same thing you’re accusing acwill07 of doing. 

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12 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

Do you really think that starting your argument like this is going to convince those people?  No, it is only going to upset them and put them on the defensive.

 

9 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

You're not going to convince them by pointing and laughing.  Engage or don't.  Your post only makes it clear to me that you don't understand why they support the ideas they support.

I've engaged with fans of the Order before. You can't meaningfully have a discussion with them. They either start lying or start making up new headcanon the same way the Order does (maybe this happened, I have no supporting text, but you can't say it didn't happen, so I'm gonna go with it).

 

And let me be 100% clear, the lying part was quite surprising to me because it was from a person who challenged me on reddit to a Discord "debate" about R+L=J. I accepted and despite the guy's extremely rude reddit posts, I found him to be a very pleasant, polite person over Discord. There was no shouting, no name-calling, no disrespect. Just a very nice fan-to-fan talk. Exactly the type of engagement you have in mind.

 

Yet a short while later back on reddit, the same guy claimed that I had never answered one of the questions he asked me ("how can Rhaegar be Jon's father if Ned hadn't thought of Rhaegar in years?"). Which was a total lie because it was the first question he asked me, I made sure to give a fully detailed answer, and he accepted my answer on Discord. So if the guy wasn't lying, then he had a really terrible memory, and either way, you can't engage with such a person.

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On 2/29/2020 at 7:52 AM, lehutin said:

Because...why?

 

Honestly it seems like the only reason it's "highly inappropriate" is that the much easier and much safer solution of sending YG to Howland Reed conflicts with your (and the Order's) headcanon of a gratuitous babyswap whose only purpose is to get YG from Dorne to Essos.

Right, Ned loved Ashara so much that...he never, ever thinks of her in any of his POV chapters. Not once. Not even in his final chapter in the Black Cells when he dreams of the Tourney at Harrenhal.

 

Of course it's easy to believe that. Ned Stark raised R+L=J as his own "bastard" son.

 

But see the difference between what happened and your headcanon? Ned Stark brought Jon back to Winterfell with him and watched over him until Jon went to the Night's Watch. Jon was safe with Ned.

 

If the problem/concern was that YG's Targaryen look makes Ned claiming fathership too farfetched, then send. The. Kid. To. Howland. Reed. Who lives in the North (like Ned). In a floating castle that moves. With no maester, men-at-arms, or knights.

 

"Frogeater" is a derogatory slur against the Crannogmen that Ned personally would never use, so really, your claim of "inappropriateness" is ridiculous on its face.

You specifically said "YG." Now, a handsome blonde lad would stick out like a sore thumb in the Reed household.  That's suicide.

So, do we get every minute of Ned's thoughts in his POVs?  The author only gives us the bits to move the plot along. Just because we don't have a Ned POV sweetly dreaming about Ashara does not mean there was no feelings there.  

 

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19 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Have you considered the possibility that maybe  @acwill07 wasn’t trying to convince

Yes of course.  I was just giving them the benefit of the doubt.  The alternative is that they were piling on with out having any intention of adding anything useful.   I guess I am naive, but I thought that the idea of a forum like this is open exchange of ideas.  To judge people and ascribe your own explanation for why they believe a certain theory is just something I detest.  At worst it is bullying; at best it is simply adding nothing to the narrative.

To be perfectly clear, I am focusing my comment above on this statement:

23 hours ago, acwill07 said:

are desperate for any alternative, no matter how absurd

Unless one personally has had long conversations with the person's who are subject of that phrase, there is no way this statement can be justified. We simply don't know their motives and experiences that led them to those views.  I find sticking to the supporting details and not making the judgemental statements is best.  

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13 hours ago, lehutin said:

You can't meaningfully have a discussion with them

I think you mean "some" of them. They are not a monolith. I actually am a fan of some of their ideas even if most of their conclusions are way off base. 

Still I take you point.  Ignoring and constantly countering evidence can be quite frustrating.  Lying about your personal experience with each other sucks so I definitely feel you you in that anecdote.  

As to the substance of Ned not having thought of Rhaegar in years, I still do wonder about that statement in his POV  ... What was the answer you gave, if you don't mind me asking?  I have always taken it to mean that Ned hadn't thought of the type of man Rhaegar was or maybe his personality in years.  Clearly Ned had discussed him several times recently with Robert, so the statement itself can't mean he'd never thought of Rhaegar in the past fifteen years until that moment.

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9 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

You specifically said "YG." Now, a handsome blonde lad would stick out like a sore thumb in the Reed household.  That's suicide.

Right, the Reed household...which according to Meera in Bran IV (ACOK),

Quote

We have no knights at Greywater. No master-at-arms, and no maester.

So let's see, no knights, no master-at-arms, and no maester. And you're afraid of YG "sticking out"? To whom?

9 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

So, do we get every minute of Ned's thoughts in his POVs?  The author only gives us the bits to move the plot along. Just because we don't have a Ned POV sweetly dreaming about Ashara does not mean there was no feelings there.  

 

I don't require Ned "sweetly dreaming about Ashara." I just need one instance in any of his POV chapters where Ned "thinks" of Ashara. Or even anything related to Ashara, like purple or a dance.

 

So I'm setting the bar very, very low. And despite that, you still can't clear it. The only time Ashara's name comes up throughout all of Ned's chapters is when Cersei mentions Ashara's name in Eddard XII. And Ned has no reaction to that, internally or externally.

 

In contrast, when Cersei mentions Lyanna's name in the same chapter/conversation, Ned has an immediate, intense, and painful internal reaction:

Quote

Ned Stark thought of pale blue roses, and for a moment he wanted to weep.

There is no actual evidence that Ned Stark had romantic feelings for Ashara Dayne. As I've said again and again, Ned Stark himself never even "thinks" of Ashara or anything related to her, not once in any of his chapters.

 

So all you have to link the two are statements from other characters. And how strong are these statements, actually?

  • Cat heard the rumor from her "maids," who themselves heard it from Ned's "soldiers." I mean, come on, it's pretty obvious what happened here: Ned's soldiers made up a story to glorify how badass their lord is to get in the skirts of the maids. None of these people actually know anything intimate about Ned and Ashara.
  • Cersei...let's just stop right there.
  • The Order makes a big deal out of how Edric Dayne believes Ned and Ashara were in love with each other. But in one of the many examples of how uninformed and/or dishonest they are, they neglect to mention that Edric Dayne actually believes Wylla is Jon Snow's mother (and that it isn't a secret or a big deal).
  • Meera never actually says Ned and Ashara had any feelings for each other. Rather, she says that Ned was too shy to leave his bench and that Brandon asked her to dance with Ned. That's some "serious" passion.
  • Lastly, Harwin tells Arya that he heard the rumor as a child at Winterfell, doesn't believe it's true, and explains to Arya that even if it were true, so what? Ned wasn't betrothed to Cat at Harrenhal; Brandon was. So Ned didn't break his marital vows even if he had sex with Ashara, which again Harwin doesn't believe happened.

So if you really lay it all out, there's nothing of substance in the text to actually back N+A=J, and of course there's even less (as in zero) text to support a gratuitous babyswap between Jon and YG where Ashara takes YG and becomes Lemore. 

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7 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

As to the substance of Ned not having thought of Rhaegar in years, I still do wonder about that statement in his POV  ... What was the answer you gave, if you don't mind me asking?  I have always taken it to mean that Ned hadn't thought of the type of man Rhaegar was or maybe his personality in years.  Clearly Ned had discussed him several times recently with Robert, so the statement itself can't mean he'd never thought of Rhaegar in the past fifteen years until that moment.

I don't mind at all, always happy to answer it. First, your last sentence is actually the key to my answer, which I thank you for. One must recognize that one cannot interpret "remember" to mean "think":

  1. Eddard VIII: "Suddenly, uncomfortably, he found himself recalling Rhaegar Targaryen."
  2. Eddard IX: "For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen."

Not only are these back-to-back Ned POV chapters, but it's just a matter of hours that separate the end of VIII and the start of IX. Therefore, it should be clear that it is not correct to interpret "remember" as "think."

 

So here's the punchline: "remember" must have some other meaning besides just "think." Now one R+L=J interpretation is that this is indeed the first time in years that Ned is remembering Rhaegar as Jon's father. However, I admit that that interpretation is a bit hindsight biased and requires you to already buy in to R+L=J.

 

If one does not, the only thing I can say is that it's clear that "remember" cannot be interpreted simply as "think." Ned thought of Rhaegar in literally the previous POV chapter. But even this much weaker statement is enough to debunk the Order's "smoking gun."

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27 minutes ago, lehutin said:

So if you really lay it all out, there's nothing of substance in the text to actually back N+A=J, and of course there's even less (as in zero) text to support a gratuitous babyswap between Jon and YG where Ashara takes YG and becomes Lemore.

I agree w/ your whole post. The other thing that is often left out of N+A=J is, why the secrecy then? And that’s not even going into creating a scenario where Ned and Ashara meet during the rebellion, since Jon cannot have been conceived during the Harrenhal tourney. The only thing this idea has going for it is that it’s less absurd than Brandon or Rickard fathered Jon on Lyanna. 

 

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16 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The other thing that is often left out of N+A=J is, why the secrecy then?

You've been a fan longer than I have :D, so this is my guess as a more recent entrant to the fandom. From what I can tell, your question was a big reason why N+A=J fell by the wayside for many years. If Jon really is just Ned's bastard with Ashara, so what? What's the big deal?

 

The answers I've heard are that Ned was "ashamed" of his fling with Ashara, or that Ned wanted to "protect/preserve" Ashara's "memory." Both of which are really weak answers. Ned condemns his bastard son to a childhood of never knowing who his mother is and causes a rift in his marriage to Cat for these reasons? Nah.

 

In fairness to @The Green Bard, despite my dislike of the Order, I admit that they at least try to address your question. Why the secrecy? Because Ned and Ashara were actually married! dun dun dun Jon is the trueborn eldest son of Ned Stark and thus the rightful heir to Winterfell! Ned keeps it a secret to keep the peace with Cat and their children. 

 

From what I can tell, this seems to be current fashion among the N+A=J holdout crowd: the secret N+A marriage explains the J parentage secrecy. Of course despite addressing your question, that opens up a new can of worms. So Ned Stark isn't a loving and honorable husband and father? He's actually a two-timing bigamist who scammed his eldest son out of his rightful inheritance? Huh, whodathought.

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