If Ashara =Lemore, what's the sequence of events?

[The Green Bard]

On 3/2/2020 at 9:20 AM, kissdbyfire said:

why the secrecy then

This is devil's advocate.  I don't ship N+A, nor do I believe R+L=YG for a minute.  Still, my interpretation under that hypothetical is that it wouldn't be to protect not Jon, but the secrecy around the other baby.  It's not great logic, since we know Ned's feelings about Varys, but there it is.    

[The Green Bard]

Thanks!

On 3/2/2020 at 8:55 AM, lehutin said:

If one does not, the only thing I can say is that it's clear that "remember" cannot be interpreted simply as "think." Ned thought of Rhaegar in literally the previous POV chapter. But even this much weaker statement is enough to debunk the Order's "smoking gun."

Yes, agreed that it is in no way a smoking gun, I never bought that argument from the beginning.  Still, though, whatever truth there is in not remembering Rheagar for 15 years tells me that Ned has a lot of repressed memories when it comes to Rheagar/Lyanna and all that. 

Extending that implication to Ned's lack of thoughts of Ashara Dayne, memories of which might also contain a lot of pain, I do question your "low bar" logic.

On 3/2/2020 at 8:47 AM, lehutin said:

I don't require Ned "sweetly dreaming about Ashara." I just need one instance in any of his POV chapters where Ned "thinks" of Ashara. Or even anything related to Ashara, like purple or a dance.

 

So I'm setting the bar very, very low.

To me, even if he never had a romantic relationship with her, there is enough implication for me to wonder if he'd been burned by something there and repressed it.  Painful repressed memories don't always come back. 

Back to Rheagar.  

On 3/2/2020 at 8:55 AM, lehutin said:

I admit that that interpretation is a bit hindsight biased and requires you to already buy in to R+L=J.

I consciously try to avoid confirmation bias to self preserve the whatever mystery remains around even the most likely theories, so I guess that hindsight bias eludes me to some degree.  My prior problems with R+L=J defenses are 3-fold 1) the complete lack of effort at eliminating Brandon as Jon's "Stark" parent (most defenses eliminate Ned, which I buy, then jump directly to Lyanna, something I consider confirmation bias, especially after ADwD was published), 2) the complete dismissal of lemongate, and 3) Ned's dreams of broken promises.  Still, at this point I think that any alternative to R+L=J/A+R=D is very low probability. 

GRRM's May 2019 blog post "An ending" convinces me that the assumption of 1) was right, even if the write-ups lacked exhaustive logic.    

I still don't discard lemongate, likely never will unless GRRM changes my mind in the text of TWoW/ADoS, but I have some other tinfoil that suggests to me the idea of Viserys and Dany being separated once they reached the Braavosi coastline.  Even though I think it completely shortsighted to discard lemongate because "they" think it threatens A+R=D, I can reconcile this, because I don't need to discard it to buy in to the parentage theories.    

I still have a problem with Ned's dreams of broken promises, so I am still holding onto some doubt about the generally accepted order of things, but not enough to strongly question this parentage scenario.  That said, I'd really appreciate Bran shedding some light on the promises he made Lyanna.

[Angel Eyes]

Here's my suggestion: After Ned returns Dawn to Starfall and departs with Howland Reed and Jon Snow, Varys arrives with Aegon son of Rhaegar. He persuades her to take the identity of a septa and fake her death. Ashara writes a suicide note, tosses a pair of shoes out the window, and takes on the identity of Septa Lemore.

[The Green Bard]

On 3/2/2020 at 9:44 AM, lehutin said:

In fairness to @The Green Bard, despite my dislike of the Order, I admit that they at least try to address your question. Why the secrecy? Because Ned and Ashara were actually married!

Lol, speaking of repressed memories, I actually had forgotten this.  I am also going to back away a bit from the idea that I think they have some good logic if not good conclusions.  I was reading on a couple less traffic'd forums recently and came across some of the ideas in old posts that predated the Order's published theory, so some of those good ideas were likely poached / uncredited good ideas of others in the fandom.  

On 3/2/2020 at 9:44 AM, lehutin said:

He's actually a two-timing bigamist who scammed his eldest son out of his rightful inheritance? Huh, whodathought.

Yes, they then take it further and say that this makes Robb, Sansa, Arya, Bran, and Rickon bastards. Which makes the theory all the more preposterous, in the end, to me.  I see a lot of people arguing that certain theories completely change Ned's personality.  Mostly I find this argument hyperbolic. Not here.  I never bought this from the very beginning. 

Still, the idea that Jon having a claim to Winterfell being one more reason for secrecy and the Tully reaction to it is real.  We need only to see how Cat treats Jon, and how Hoster treated Lysa to know that that house is very prickly about such things.

Still, I wonder if they somehow got it completely wrong but somehow partially right and backward.  I saw it implied somewhere that Robb is actually Brandon's son.  Now, I had always thought that there was nothing to this because Ned took her maidenhead.  Not necessarily:

Quote

I gave Brandon my favor to wear, and never comforted Petyr once after he was wounded, nor bid him farewell when Father sent him off. And when Brandon was murdered and Father told me I must wed his brother, I did so gladly, though I never saw Ned's face until our wedding day. I gave my maidenhood to this solemn stranger and sent him off to his war and his king and the woman who bore him his bastard, because I always did my duty.

A google search gives you this dictionary entry:

 

Quote

 

maid·en·hood

/ˈmādnˌho͝od/

noun

1. the fact or condition of being a young, unmarried woman.

    

   Similar:

   virginity

    

    

   purity

    

    

   chastity

    

    

   virtue

    

    

   honor

    

    

   celibacy

    

    

   cherry

    

    

   maidenhead

    

   • a girl's virginity.

     "she had forsworn that her maidenhood would be kept sacred"

 

1. •  

So definition 1 is about being married, not the loss of the hymen.  It's pretty slim, but it is food for thought.  Is George's use of the term here analogous to marriage but not necessarily virginity?  The term maidenhead would be definitive that she was a virgin on their wedding night.  Coupled with this, Brandon is even mentioned in the same paragraph, adding to the intrigue for me at least. 

Still this next use of the term claims Robb was made by Ned and Cat:  

Quote

She remembered her own childish disappointment, the first time she had laid eyes on Eddard Stark. She had pictured him as a younger version of his brother Brandon, but that was wrong. Ned was shorter and plainer of face, and so somber. He spoke courteously enough, but beneath the words she sensed a coolness that was all at odds with Brandon, whose mirths had been as wild as his rages. Even when he took her maidenhood, their love had more of duty to it than of passion. We made Robb that night, though; we made a king together. And after the war, at Winterfell, I had love enough for any woman, once I found the good sweet heart beneath Ned's solemn face. 

This time sex is clearly implied as being part of taking the maidenhood,and she insists in her mind that the made Robb.  Conversely, it continues to tickle my brain that 1) she still uses that term, maidenhood, 2) that Brandon is mentioned again, and 3) that she was somehow disappointed in his performance.  She was certainly obsessed with Brandon (also thinking of him in the only contemporary chapter where Ned and Cat have sex). Earlier sex with him would explain this.  I also can't help but to think that she shouldn't have had any experience to measure Ned's performance against.  Still, they ought to be able to count months at Riverrun, although Lysa seems to hate Cat.  Could she think that Robb was Littlefingers?  LF's purported bedding of her was much closer in time to Brandon's only opportunity. 

Preposterous tinfoil I know ... and the odds of getting a payoff from it are slim to none, even if true, but I can't shake it!! 

[The Green Bard]

On 3/2/2020 at 10:25 AM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

There are those who absolutely want to see Jon the next wielder of Dawn.

Guilty.  I still think he might.  Still though, inheritance and familial identity is so screwed up in this story that I can see Jon getting it this sword no matter who his parents were. Dyanna Dayne is in the Targ tree... and the originaly weilder of Dawn may actually have been a Stark, who sent it south for safekeeping.  

[Alexis-something-Rose]

10 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

Guilty.  I still think he might.  Still though, inheritance and familial identity is so screwed up in this story that I can see Jon getting it this sword no matter who his parents were. Dyanna Dayne is in the Targ tree... and the originaly weilder of Dawn may actually have been a Stark, who sent it south for safekeeping.  

Sure. He very well could end up wielding Dawn, but Ashara doesn't have to be his mother for that. It's possible that Dyanna Dayne was placed in the Targaryen tree for that reason. Jon was basically one degree removed from her while he was around Maester Aemon.

[The Green Bard]

On 3/2/2020 at 10:41 AM, Frey family reunion said:

For the author to steer Jon's arc to the Iron Throne, for example, does nothing to further Jon's internal conflict set up in the series, in fact it would distract from it.

I think and have always that the idea of R+L=Jon's wouldn't concern political inheritance so much the magical inheritance of the Targ kingsblood combining with the First men Kingsblood of the Starks.  The last combination of it brought us the last greenseer, Bloodraven.  

On 3/2/2020 at 11:13 AM, The Map Guy said:

Even Ned and his gang kicked Arthur's ass at TOJ.

 Seems presumptuous.  Of the outcome, we know only that Ned and Howland survived and that:

Quote

"The finest knight I ever saw was Ser Arthur Dayne, who fought with a blade called Dawn, forged from the heart of a fallen star. They called him the Sword of the Morning, and he would have killed me but for Howland Reed." Father had gotten sad then, and he would say no more. 

We actually have no confirmation that any of the 3 KG died.  If you disagree, please provide the proofs. 

On 3/2/2020 at 11:13 AM, The Map Guy said:

Unless Dawn can summon meteors to fall from the sky to fight the zombies and the Long Night, Jon "Dayne-Stark" wielding Dawn is nothing special.

Well, the meteors hitting the wall would have quite the opposite effect IMO, so I don't see your point here, especially since dragons are already available for the role you place in the meteors. 

As to Dayne-Stark wielding Dawn, well, to me, the implication is that in the first long-night Dawn was used by such a person.  I'd even suggest to you that it was taken south to Starfall for safe-keeping in case it was needed for such again.  Besides, House Dayne's genes ARE in Jon under RLJ through Dyanna Dayne. 

On 3/2/2020 at 11:13 AM, The Map Guy said:

Even if Jon is the wielder of Dawn, he has Longclaw already. Will he double-wield Dawn and Longclaw fighting zombies?

Please.  Giving it back to Jorah Mormont seems much more likely in the event that Dawn comes into his hand.

On 3/2/2020 at 2:19 PM, Therae said:

made her way to wherever she spent the time until YG was handed off to JonCon (this is also problematic; what did she do in the meantime?)

While I am also very skeptical of A=L, I had an earlier post that suggested how this timeline might work (on p.2).

[The Green Bard]

20 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

It's possible that Dyanna Dayne was placed in the Targaryen tree for that reason.

I find that highly likely!

[The Green Bard]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

Varys arrives with Aegon son of Rhaegar. He persuades her to take the identity of a septa and fake her death. Ashara writes a suicide note, tosses a pair of shoes out the window, and takes on the identity of Septa Lemore.

Seems too early.  I would think Varys down't get into it until around the time JonCon left the golden company. 

[lehutin]

1 hour ago, The Green Bard said:

Still, though, whatever truth there is in not remembering Rheagar for 15 years tells me that Ned has a lot of repressed memories when it comes to Rheagar/Lyanna and all that. 

Extending that implication to Ned's lack of thoughts of Ashara Dayne, memories of which might also contain a lot of pain, I do question your "low bar" logic.

I agree that some of Ned's memories about Lyanna and Rhaegar may be very painful and unpleasant. However, despite that, Ned does think of Lyanna and Rhaegar quite often, both before and after Eddard IX. 

 

So all I require is one, just one, instance of Ned thinking about Ashara Dayne or even anything related to Ashara. Purple, a dance, something. In any of his POV chapters. But there's nothing. Ashara is mentioned only once across all of Ned's chapters (by Cersei), and Ned has no reaction to it, internally or externally.

 

There's nothing from Ned's own POV chapters that support any sort of connection between him and Ashara, much less a connection as deep as Ashara being the mother of their son.

1 hour ago, The Green Bard said:

My prior problems with R+L=J defenses are 3-fold 1) the complete lack of effort at eliminating Brandon as Jon's "Stark" parent (most defenses eliminate Ned, which I buy, then jump directly to Lyanna, something I consider confirmation bias, especially after ADwD was published)

Brandon can be pretty easily eliminated. It all gets back to the same question, "why the secrecy?"

 

If Jon is just Brandon's bastard (with Ashara or whomever), why does Ned lie and falsely claim Jon as his own bastard? Cat herself tells Robb in ASOS that "a bastard cannot inherit," so there should be no fear that bastard Jon may have a better claim to Winterfell than Robb.

 

Also, all Ned needs to do is tell Cat, "this is Jon. He's all I have left of Brandon," and I bet Cat would hold nothing against Jon, and there would be no rift in Ned and Cat's marriage.

 

Now as @Frey family reunion mentioned, there is the possibility of "Starkcest." But it's just that. A possibility. With no textual support whatsoever. It appears to have developed from a meta perspective:

1. R+L=J is "too obvious."
2. But we have to explain why Ned keeps Jon's parents a "secret."
3. How about Starkcest?

I consider it a "theory" at the level of a porn script.

 

Moving on, what if Jon is Brandon's trueborn son? Well, first, there's zero evidence of that in the text; and second, GRRM has said in a So Spake Martin that it's "absolutely clear" Brandon had "no legitimate children."

 

At least to me, all of that rules out Brandon Stark as a candidate for Jon Snow's father.

1 hour ago, The Green Bard said:

2) the complete dismissal of lemongate

I'm totally on board with the idea that we don't know everything about Dany's past. But where do you want to go with lemongate? The path of R+L=D?

 

I can tell you why I think R+L=D is an awful theory if that's the path you want to go from lemongate.

 

1 hour ago, The Green Bard said:

3) Ned's dreams of broken promises.

I acknowledge that it's not clear what "broken promises" Ned is referring to in his final POV chapter. But I don't think that necessarily weakens R+L=J. IMO, if you pick any parentage theory, it doesn't explain the "broken promise."

 

For example, going back to R+L=D (which I'm not sure you had in mind from lemongate), one of the misconceptions that underlies the theory is the false claim that "promise me, Ned" is strongly connected to Dany.

 

That's simply not true. There are numerous chapters when 

• Ned thinks of "promise me, Ned" but not Dany.
• Ned thinks of Dany but not "promise me, Ned."
• Even when the two phrases occur in the same chapter, they never occur in the same context.

So in the case of Eddard XV, Ned thinks of "broken promises" but not Dany. He has the opportunity to ask Varys about "the Targaryen girl/princess," but he doesn't do so.

 

Instead, Ned painfully rues that he can't speak to Jon, and feverishly dreams of Rhaegar and Lyanna.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

13 minutes ago, lehutin said:

Instead, Ned painfully rues that he can't speak to Jon, and feverishly dreams of Rhaegar and Lyanna.

You can add to that Bran's dream about Ned being in the crypts, following his death, and his sadness over Jon.

[The Green Bard]

24 minutes ago, lehutin said:

Ashara is mentioned only once across all of Ned's chapters (by Cersei), and Ned has no reaction to it, internally or externally.

I'd say his reaction is to think of protecting children, connecting his wish to protect Jon and Dany to Cersei's own children.

26 minutes ago, lehutin said:

Brandon can be pretty easily eliminated.

I don't buy any of your arguments there, but the point is moot because I do agree that Jon isn't his son.   

Starkcest has much less reason behind it than B+A=J, just from the text, if one has not yet heard the SSM's about Brandon's children.  I've heard there is also an SSM saying he had no sons, which would eliminate B+A=J or Starkcest involving Brandon.  Regardless, at this point I do still think B+A a potential thing, though not tied to Jon.  Allyria Dayne or Meera Reed being the most likely babes. 

Someone impregnated Ashara Dayne, and I don't buy that it was as simple as she and Howland fell in love as Robert from InDeepGeek seems to assume.  Barristan certainly thinks she was dishonored and looked to Stark.  Since he shows no dislike to Ned, Brandon is most likely.  Still, Gyanna Reed is a good secret identity for her if she survived and isn't Lemore.  Lemore is more likely if the babe died.  Heck, it's even possible that she became Gyanna Reed and then heard of YG=Aegon 4 years later (after Jojen's birth) and fucked off from the neck to Essos.  That would explain the time that passes after Ned's visit and when JonCon leaves the golden company.       

34 minutes ago, lehutin said:

But where do you want to go with lemongate? The path of R+L=D?

No, been there, done that.  Anything but Dany being Rhaella's daughter makes very little sense once we know that Lyanna is Jon's mother. 

Besides. it isn't where I want to go with it that matters.  It is where the author wants to go with it; he is the one that makes it clear lemon's don't grow at that lattitude.  As much as I can tell, lemongate simply explains Dany's vastly different experiences that Viserys (he is elitist, and she is more grounded, at least until she hatches dragons).  It also may explain things we don't yet know about houses Dayne and Martell, and the actions Illyrio/Varys, and, yes, Ned and the ToJ cast. 

Quote

Ser Willem Darry and four loyal men had broken into the nursery and stolen them both, along with her wet nurse, and set sail under cover of darkness for the safety of the Braavosian coast.

If these 4 loyal men existed, who were they?  Also, where did the boat come from? (answer: not Dragonstone.) That is what I want to know about it, because if Viserys lived in Braavos, and she lived in Dorne, then it implies that some or all of them took her back to Dorne, splitting at the Braavosian coast, leaving at least Darry and Vis to remain in Braavos.  I discuss it a bit more in the ongoing Dany post at LH (note that the essayist markg171 has not responded to me):

http://thelasthearth.com/post/70312/thread

56 minutes ago, lehutin said:

I acknowledge that it's not clear what "broken promises" Ned is referring to in his final POV chapter.

I also agree with you that Ned's thoughts about these promises don't give coherent support of any theory.  At the same time, while Ned makes other promises, I don't for a second think that the ones he dreams / broods over in the black cells are anything but his promises to Lyanna that you mention and which come up all over his POV (8 discrete times IIRC).  One thing people sometimes overlook is that his promises to Lyanna are plural. ... It's so mysterious and such great writing to keep us wondering about them even this late! 

[kissdbyfire]

@lehutin, I’m out the door so can’t get into it properly but wanted to leave this here irt Brandon as Jon’s dad and also the possibility of Starkcest. First, Jon would have to be older than Robb by quite a few months, and I don’t believe that would fly. No one is going to buy into Ned’s story if the babies aren’t close enough in age IMO. 

As to Brandon and Lyanna... well, I suppose it is possible just because it isn’t impossible? But again, Jon’s age becomes a possible issue. Then, as you said, the absolute and complete lack of evidence or clues. If that is the reason for Ned to keep it from everyone, to the point where it becomes an issue in his marriage, why doesn’t he think about it, even in a very subtle way? Not ever, not once. And I think Martin would have left a few clues, or it becomes a terrible asspull. Not his style IMO. And there’s another reason some support this idea... lots of Targ fans are desperate to insert icky sibling-fucking type incest into the Stark family tree. Mind you, I am not talking about @Frey family reunion; we disagree on a few things but he’s not a mindless hater.

 

[The Map Guy]

5 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

We actually have no confirmation that any of the 3 KG died.  If you disagree, please provide the proofs. 

"And now it begins," said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.
"No," Ned said with sadness in his voice. "Now it ends." As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, [...]

[...]

It would have to be his grandfather, for Jory's father was buried far to the south. Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest. Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed. He did not think it omened well that he should dream that dream again after so many years. {Eddard X AGOT}

Seven Combatants vs. Three Combatants = 2 Survivors + X Dead
10 = 2 + X
X = 8
eight cairns = 8 Dead ... Check

If you think the 3 KG of TOJ are alive, please provide the proofs.

5 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

Quote

"The finest knight I ever saw was Ser Arthur Dayne, who fought with a blade called Dawn, forged from the heart of a fallen star. They called him the Sword of the Morning, and he would have killed me but for Howland Reed." Father had gotten sad then, and he would say no more. 

 

Many read this line as if Howland Reed saved Ned at TOJ.
I read this as Ser Arthur Dayne, the guardian of TOJ, would have hypothetically killed Ned for letting Howland do something he shouldn't have done ... perhaps breaking a promise ... making Ned sad.

So what did Howland do that would have pissed off Arthur?

With R+L=J ... it is still a mystery

With a certain alternative to R+L=J ... it answers all the questions

When the (S)nows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives.

Well at least Ned allowed Jon Snow to stay at Winterfell with the rest of the wolf-pack Robb, Sansa, Bran, Arya & Rickon ... but damn it Ned for that single lone wolf separated from the pack.

5 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

Well, the meteors hitting the wall would have quite the opposite effect IMO, so I don't see your point here, especially since dragons are already available for the role you place in the meteors.

As to Dayne-Stark wielding Dawn, well, to me, the implication is that in the first long-night Dawn was used by such a person. I'd even suggest to you that it was taken south to Starfall for safe-keeping in case it was needed for such again. Besides, House Dayne's genes ARE in Jon under RLJ through Dyanna Dayne.

 

The meteors wouldn't hit the Wall. (The Wall won't physically fall anyways)

The meteors would hit the Others & zombies at a battle at the Trident, while human armies are south of the river.
Admit it guys, you would rather see the Long Night end like this instead of the way it did on HBO.

If GRRM's intentions is to get Dawn into Jon's hands, and he ends the Long Night by swinging the blade ... I think that is lazy writing.

5 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

Please. Giving it back to Jorah Mormont seems much more likely in the event that Dawn comes into his hand.

Jorah is in Essos. Dawn is in Starfall. Jon is at the Wall. That is a lot of geography between the three, assuming the Daynes would allow Dawn to leave Starfall to begin with.

 

7 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

2) the complete dismissal of lemongate

An alternative ... Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy ... a theory so good, it left people speechless

ANYONE WHO THINKS ASHARA = LEMORE ... EXPLAIN TO ME THIS:
"Under Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch. The storm lord drank down the knight of skulls and kisses in a wine-cup war. The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench. {Bran II ASOS}

Jon Con and Septa Lemore are hanging out with each other in ADWD. How come Jon Con never thinks about it?

It would be the same category as Tyrion not mentioning Septa Lemore's eye color ... it is cheap and unearned writing.

 

Let Ashara be ... she is dead.

 

And no she is not Jyana Reed. We know nothing of Jyana ... Meera and Jojen mentions nothing about her. Don't let fan-fic clog your brains if you can't back up your claims. The only thing we know about Jyana, "mother" to Meera & Jojen, that is INDISPUTABLE is that Jyana rhymes with Lyanna.

[The Green Bard]

8 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away

How can we be sure that the "They" includes the seven and the three?  If "they" refers only to the seven, then the "two" who "lived to ride away" would be of the seven and not necessarily reflective of the fate of the other three.  Further, living to "walk away" or to be "carried away" is not precluded by this statement.  It only means that Ned and Howland were the only ones who lived AND rode away. 

Willam Dustin, for instance, may have been injured and couldn't ride away, but survived.  We know he didn't ride away on his horse, of course since Ned brought it back to his widow, without him on it.  

So, GRRM gave himself 2 linguistic loopholes should he have meant for any of them to have survived at the time or even if wanted to leave himself the wiggle room to decide later that any of the 3 KG survived.  

9 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

eight cairns = 8 Dead ... Check

They don't need to be full.  Logically, if you wanted people to think you'd buried eight bodies, you would build eight cairns. 

What you are saying is the equivalent of:

"If they built 8 cairns, then 8 people must have died".  It is a logical fallacy.  

I love that you thought algebra would somehow persuade me, though.  Props for originality!  However, they taught me logic in math class the same year they taught me algebra; I got an A+.  Therefore, I must grant that you've given proof that Martyn Cassel is in one of the cairns.  Logically, the use of "with the rest" in your quote means that at least 2 more died as well.  The quantity of "the rest" is up to interpretation and debate, but it is definitely plural.  So I can only conclude that a minimum of 3 bodies are buried in those 8 cairns.  I'd guess 4 is more likely.  Anything beyond that would take more evidence to convince me beyond a reasonable doubt.   

9 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

If you think the 3 KG of TOJ are alive, please provide the proofs.

Here's the thing.  In the comment you made earlier, you suggested that the KG, one of them wielding Dawn, got their asses handed to them by the 7 folks mentioned above.  In order to use that as a fact for purposes of evidence, the burden of proof is on you.  I need only cast reasonable doubt on it.  You may disagree that I have succeeded in doing so, but that is as far as it goes.  

I am not claiming that I know something, merely pointing out that we can't know it.  I cannot possibly prove that we know something that I am claiming isn't known.  It is a paradox.  Now, if you want to go further down the rabbit hole, I can give you links to the circumstantial cases for Arthur = Mance, Gerold = Qhorin, and Oswell = Oswell, but I am nowhere near sure of any of those theories.  All are more unlikely than likely if I had to guess at probabilities.     

30 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

Many read this line as if Howland Reed saved Ned at TOJ.
I read this as Sir Arthur Dayne, the guardian of TOJ, would have hypothetically killed Ned for letting Howland do something he shouldn't have done ... perhaps breaking a promise.

So what did Howland do that would have pissed off Arthur?

With R+L=J ... it is still a mystery

With a certain alternative to R+L=J ... it answers all the questions

I really have no idea what you're referring to here.  If it is in the stuff you crossed off, ... well, if you mean it, say it.  

[The Map Guy]

26 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

How can we be sure that the "They" includes the seven and the three?  If "they" refers only to the seven, then the "two" who "lived to ride away" would be of the seven and not necessarily reflective of the fate of the other three.  Further, living to "walk away" or to be "carried away" is not precluded by this statement.  It only means that Ned and Howland were the only ones who lived AND rode away. 

Willam Dustin, for instance, may have been injured and couldn't ride away, but survived.  We know he didn't ride away on his horse, of course since Ned brought it back to his widow, without him on it.  

So, GRRM gave himself 2 linguistic loopholes should he have meant for any of them to have survived at the time or even if wanted to leave himself the wiggle room to decide later that any of the 3 KG survived.

 Going off topic here, but I'll be quick about it.

He dreamt an old dream, of three knights in white cloaks, and a tower long fallen, and Lyanna in her bed of blood.
In the dream his friends rode with him, as they had in life. Proud Martyn Cassel, Jory's father; faithful Theo Wull; Ethan Glover, who had been Brandon's squire; Ser Mark Ryswell, soft of speech and gentle of heart; the crannogman, Howland Reed; Lord Dustin on his great red stallion. Ned had known their faces as well as he knew his own once, but the years leech at a man's memories, even those he has vowed never to forget. In the dream they were only shadows, grey wraiths on horses made of mist.
They were seven, facing three. In the dream as it had been in life. Yet these were no ordinary three. They waited before the round tower, the red mountains of Dorne at their backs, their white cloaks blowing in the wind. And these were no shadows; their faces burned clear, even now. Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, had a sad smile on his lips. The hilt of the greatsword Dawn poked up over his right shoulder. Ser Oswell Whent was on one knee, sharpening his blade with a whetstone. Across his white-enameled helm, the black bat of his House spread its wings. Between them stood fierce old Ser Gerold Hightower, the White Bull, Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. {Ned X AGOT}

There are seven horses, at least.

yet only two had lived to ride away

So you are telling me that Ned and Howland were the only two healthy enough to ride horses away from TOJ? And the other injured combatants just walked away? Look at a map of TOJ, where would they walk to?

How about the five remaining horses then? Why won't the injured just take a horse? It is better than walking.

32 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

They don't need to be full.  Logically, if you wanted people to think you'd buried eight bodies, you would build eight cairns. 

Who are looking for these bodies? Has anyone even tried after Ned and Howland left?

34 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

Gerold = Qhorin

Qhorin died. What would be the point? And who would reveal this anyways?

38 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

Oswell = Oswell

Cobblepot?? I meant Kettleblack??

 

40 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

I really have no idea what you're referring to here.  If it is in the stuff you crossed off, ... well, if you mean it, say it.  

The stuff that was originally "strike-through" in the last post was a glitch in the website, I had to correct it using unorthodox techniques

Anyways the thing I was referring to is an alternative to "R+L=J" discovered by ... well ... unorthodox techniques

On this website, there are a few taboo things that are not discussed here

• The HBO Show (moderator rules)
• Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon & Meera (voluntarily)

R+L=J&M takes you to a darker side of ASOIAF that few have explored over the decades.
You think the Others are evil and dark? We have someone even darker.

There are certain endgame predictions that have failed us.
We should have known that there were terrible people plotting to destroy GRRM's ASOIAF.
There are theorists and fan-fics where in ADOS, Empress Daenerys is evil.
BUT from our point of view, R+L is evil.
And don't worry, we are not lost ... we have a map. 

[lehutin]

18 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

You can add to that Bran's dream about Ned being in the crypts, following his death, and his sadness over Jon.

Never made that connection before, thanks!

17 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

I'd say his reaction is to think of protecting children, connecting his wish to protect Jon and Dany to Cersei's own children.

Prior to Cersei mentioning Ashara's name, Cersei mentioned Lyanna's name, and Ned had an immediate and intense internal reaction:

Quote

“The night of our wedding feast, the first time we shared a bed, he called me by your sister’s name. He was on top of me, in me, stinking of wine, and he whispered Lyanna.”

Ned Stark thought of pale blue roses, and for a moment he wanted to weep.

That is one of many instances in Ned's chapters where Lyanna is strongly connected to blue flowers.

 

Now, for the only instance throughout all of Ned's chapters when Ashara's name is mentioned, there is no such internal reaction from Ned:

Quote

“...You’ve a bastard of your own, I’ve seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I’m told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole? Tell me, my honorable Lord Eddard, how are you any different from Robert, or me, or Jaime?”

“For a start,” said Ned, “I do not kill children...”

Cersei mentions Ashara's name - again, the only time Ashara's name is ever mentioned across all of Ned's POV chapters - and Ned

1. doesn't think of anything (not purple, not a dance, nothing).
2. doesn't "want to weep" or any similar emotional response.

Ned just ignores the taunt and proceeds to his punchline: "you must be gone." That's why I keep saying that I'm setting the bar very, very, very low, and the N+A=J crowd still can't clear the bar.

17 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

As to Brandon and Lyanna... well, I suppose it is possible just because it isn’t impossible?

Lots of fringe tinfoil theories are based on this type of argument. I don't mind it if the authors are honest and say they're writing elseword-type fanfics, but when the entirety of their arguments are based on

• maybe X happened
• I have no evidence, but you can't prove X didn't happen

it ain't a good theory.

[aryagonnakill#2]

A lot of people on this thread have veered off into talking about Jon being swapped and not being R+L=J.  I will simply remind you all that that is the one person we know for sure, so instead of changing that to fit a theory, you should work backwards from what we know. Could Jon be one of twins, sure.  Could Dany have been swapped, it's possible. Could she have been a twin, sure.  Could Ashara have had a baby with Rhaegar or Aerys?  Yes we don't know that she didn't. Could she have had twins?  Again, yes, it's possible. 

Could Jon be anyone else but R+L=J? No, D&D got his lineage correct before Dance, and they sure as shit didn't go off on some Ashara baby swap limb when they had one chance to impress GRRM.

[The Green Bard]

13 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

So you are telling me that Ned and Howland were the only two healthy enough to ride horses away from TOJ? And the other injured combatants just walked away? Look at a map of TOJ, where would they walk to?

No.  Just, Willam Dustin, actually.  I think it possible he was gravely wounded and couldn't ride (or walk), but did survive, possibly carried away on some kind of cart.  There are several instances of people not being able to ride a horse in this story, most notably Bran Stark.  Without Tyrion Lannister on hand to design him a saddle, it is certainly possible that he could not ride away.   

Basically, I am saying he could be this guy:

Quote

She remembered Ser Willem dimly, a great grey bear of a man, half-blind, roaring and bellowing orders from his sickbed. The servants had lived in terror of him, but he had always been kind to Dany. He called her "Little Princess" and sometimes "My Lady," and his hands were soft as old leather. He never left his bed, though, and the smell of sickness clung to him day and night, a hot, moist, sickly sweet odor.

Anyway, we know his red stallion went away riderless; Ned took that one home.  The rest of the horses really are not important, perhaps the pulled the wagon I just conjured; but the man's ability to ride would be the reason they were not ridden, not the lack of horses.  The KG can ride away with impunity since they aren't included in the "they."

You make a drole s***post about lemongate, writing it up such that both sides look ridiculous and then proposing a possible solution.  I have another solution.  Lemongate is real without the R+L=D.  Dany and Viserys, the 2 heirs, are separated, (just like Bran and Rickon were).  Viserys did live with the real Darry in Braavos.  Dany was in Dorne with the imposter Willam Darry who is really Willam Dustin. 

Note also that Dany's voyage in this scenario would then be very much paralleled by Myrcella's much later voyage to Dorne (or not... recall that there is also a fake Myrcella - Rosamund - involved in the trip too).  

Anyway, last year I wrote a short essay on reddit, "A Simple Connection about Little Dornish Princesses"  TL;DR the phrase "Little Princess" is used a whole bunch in Dorne about Myrcella and Arianne, once at the wall by Jon about Shireen, and by Darry about Dany.  It would fit the pattern if the house with the red door is in Dorne.   

I admit that it is possible George wrote all that stuff about lemons not growing that far north just to be a jerk to people who subscribe to lemongate, but I also see that your solution is just as deus ex machina as mine.  Obviously I could be wrong.  It's not that I think lemongate is #confirmed.  It's that I can't stomach the complete dismissal of it.   Nuance is everything in these books, so seeing both sides of the thing is extremely important to analysis of them IMHO. 

13 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Who are looking for these bodies?

Uh, nobody.  Like you, they'd count the cairns and be satisfied that they were probably full.  Now, if there were only 5 cairns, then the living KG might be looked for.    

13 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Qhorin died. What would be the point? And who would reveal this anyways?

The point would be that he died so that Jon might live, in fulfillment of his KG vows.  Notably the man who Qhorin was sending Jon to is still alive.  I note that you didn't object to Mance as Arthur, but, being alive, he would be the obvious one to reveal it.

13 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Cobblepot?? I meant Kettleblack??

Or, Chester Copperpot.  Yes, Kettleblack.  TBH I was very skeptical of both of these theories at first, but I read an insane write-up of them by u/M_Tootles on reddit, and I was very surprised at being somewhat convinced of their plausibility.  Cliffnotes is that it makes a lot more sense when you consider that Oswell's "sons" would actually be his nephews who jousted at Harrenhal (their seat).  Lady Chela is supposedly the last of her house, but no explanation is ever given for the disappearance of her sons and of herself, for that matter.  The existence of a plot definitely would be a solution to that mystery.

What he doesn't cover is why this supposedly honorable KG would serve Baelish.  S

hort answer is that this is temporary and working in his favor to get Harrenhal back.  If you consider the historical (cursed) role of the seat of Harrenhal it gets more plausible.  The Strong's for instance played foil to both sides in the Dance with the Dragons.  The Whent's would be doing this against the Lannisters and Baelish in this incarnation of the repeating archtype.  Further, they could also have been the 4 loyal men who helped free Vis and Dany.  Finally, note that Baelish doesn't trust Oswell, but thinks he has it under control by having Brune and him spy on eachother.  I think he's overconfident.  Once he takes up his seat at Harrenhal, I expect Oswell with double cross him (or earlier).  They are playing a long game.  Not sure it Targ restoration is part of it.  

13 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

And don't worry, we are not lost ... we have a map. 

Not sure if I'll be going down this rabbit-hole anytime soon, but thx for trying to explain!

 

[lehutin]

15 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

I have another solution.  Lemongate is real without the R+L=D.  Dany and Viserys, the 2 heirs, are separated, (just like Bran and Rickon were).  Viserys did live with the real Darry in Braavos.  Dany was in Dorne with the imposter Willam Darry who is really Willam Dustin. 

Suppose I accept this as true. How does this work?

1. Rhaella dies giving birth to Dany on Dragonstone.
2. Willem Darry escapes with Viserys but fails to secure Dany.
3. ?
4. Dany ends up with Willam Dustin in Dorne for a few years.

What's step 3?