Guest Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 I think this win probably stems the bleeding, and keeps Sanders from being the only candidate to break the 15% vote threshold in California. It maybe puts him* over the top in Texas. But I don't think there's any way Sanders is not the delegate leader after Super Tuesday. It's just a question of by how much. *Biden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Looks like Sanders getting a massive boost from the Republican chaos voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshwater Spartan Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Multiple news outlets reporting that Steyer is dropping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Hmmm...suspiciously few Nazi comparisons tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Warren comes out swinging after South Carolina drubbing She hits all her rivals, including Bernie Sanders, who she said "fails to get things done." https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/29/elizabeth-warren-south-carolina-118374 Quote “This crisis demands more than a senator who has good ideas, but whose 30-year track record shows he consistently calls for things he fails to get done, and consistently opposes things he nevertheless fails to stop,” Warren said in her toughest assessment of the Vermont senator during a speech in Houston Saturday night. Quote “Let’s be blunt,” Warren said. “This crisis demands more than a former vice president so eager to cut deals with Mitch McConnell and the Republicans that he’ll trade good ideas for bad ones,” she said of Joe Biden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 1, 2020 Author Share Posted March 1, 2020 So @DMC, what do I win for my prognosticating skills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 CNN has just pointed out that after SC, Biden has 27.8% of the popular vote, Bernie with 24.8% of the popular vote. And so far Bernie was bragging he had the popular vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Weird double post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Kalbear said: So @DMC, what do I win for my prognosticating skills? He'll kill you last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 8 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: And I just read a post from one of the chat rooms I frequent blaming the Chinese citizens themselves for not ousting their totalitarian government and using this as a basis to reel against immigration in general. I am sad to say I know this person to be genuine in his views. We have a heavy loon population in Northern Wisconsin as well, and I'm not just referencing the kind on the lakes. For instance, I overheard a woman in the break room saying she believes that the stock market sell off and the Coronavirus stories are all just an attempt to make Trump look bad. She wishes people would just stop talking about. I spent most of that afternoon trying to imagine how much beer that particular coworker must swill nightly to come to such a mindset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 1, 2020 Author Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said: He'll kill you last. We definitely know that's a lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 5 hours ago, Kalbear said: So @DMC, what do I win for my prognosticating skills? He will predict future elections by reading them from your bones. I almost said his last human sacrifice outlived his usefullness, but I guess they already did when he sacrificed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 8 hours ago, Kalbear said: So @DMC, what do I win for my prognosticating skills? Plus, I guess you get more time to complain about Sanders until the overwhelming likelihood/inevitability that he's the nominee is realized. I like how Steyer was the only one to drop out last night - and he came in a solid third! Now Bloomberg gets to come in and split up the anti-Bernie vote so as to ensure Biden won't be able to match Sanders' delegate count - effectively doing the exact opposite of his ostensible reason for running. If anti-Sanders Democrats were serious, they’d unite around Biden right now - How are Bernie Sanders’s elite Democratic opponents this incompetent? Quote If swing-district House members and party elites really want to stop Sanders, their next steps are obvious. The Clintons, Pelosi, and Schumer, and all the Bloomberg backers among the frontline House Democrats, should formally endorse Biden as the best hope for defeating Sanders. They should hit the campaign trail and hold rallies convincing rank-and-file Democrats that the Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg campaigns aren’t viable options, and Biden is the only moderate capable of holding up against Sanders. They should have done this weeks ago, if their intention was really to stop Sanders, but at the very least they should do so before post-Super Tuesday high-delegate races in Florida, Illinois, Ohio, New York, and Pennsylvania. Looks like this will be the third straight competitive cycle in which the likely nominee will be clear by early March, but at least one strong rival stays in the race way too long. This is what happens when the party no longer decides. Makes one wonder about all the anti-democratic harping about superdelegates, caucuses, delegate apportionment, etc. The reality of increased "democracy" does not seem to be a normative improvement to me. That being said, last night did raise serious questions about Sanders' campaign. After appearing to make inroads with black voters in Nevada, there seemed to be a backlash in SC - if the polls are correct it was Biden and not Sanders that got a bounce from Nevada last week. Sanders' weakness with older black voters is a very serious concern. They are an essential demo for any Dem nominee, and the last one to do anywhere near this poorly with them - especially if such results are replicated in all those Southern states on Tuesday - was Dukakis in 1988. And he had Jackson as a main rival, plus obviously that's not the general election result you wanna shoot for - that's the last time the Republican won the popular vote by a substantial margin. 14 hours ago, Triskele said: Did projections that Clinton was going to win help Trump win? Maybe. @DMC bait ETA: Slate, free clicks From the link: Quote “We cannot say with certainty,” Sean Westwood, one of the authors, said in an email. “But given how close the election was in some states, it is entirely possible that forecasts could have flipped the election in favor of Trump.” Yeah, the election was so close myriad factors can be identified as potentially, or even probably, significant enough to change the outcome. One "fun" paper I've always enjoyed is this one showing how much simply bad weather - not huge storms, mind you, but just a bit of rain or snow - can adversely effect turnout (and help the Republicans). Quote “Humans just cannot process probabilities accurately,” Westwood said. “Even though they make for dramatic headlines, the research shows it is nearly impossible to convey probabilities in a way that does not generate confusion.” I think this is the main takeaway. IIRC, Silver's final forecast in 2016 gave Hillary a 70 percent chance of winning. I distinctly remember the conversation I had with my brother that morning/afternoon when he was taking me to class: Brother - "So you agree with Silver?" Me - "Sure, sounds about right." Brother - "So, there's no reason to be worried then." Me - "Well, I wouldn't say that." Brother - "But you just said..." Me - "Even if Hillary was at 75%, that still means Trump has a 1 in 4 chance of winning. So he has the same chance as if you flipped a coin twice and it came up heads each time. That happens all the time, right?" Brother - "......well, shit." Probability is hard to get your head around, and not just for laymen. That's why graduate programs spend weeks going over it. Like @Ormond said, I don't blame Silver for this. He's always tried to be as clear as possible, plus his model was quite prudent compared to others in 2016. I do blame the Princeton group mentioned in the article which put her chances at 99%. That's obviously click bait for the media to pick up and lead to vast overconfidence. Plus, the way they did it was just wrong - they cut off the tails of their distribution, which is essentially ignoring any chance of error and just..no, that's not how you do things. I remember when that figure came out my mother called me and I tried to explain to her it was bullshit. She still blames me for Trump. Anyway, that was incredibly irresponsible for one of the best universities in the country (or the world). But in general, I think any "blame" here resides with the media and pundits spouting off these numbers like they were gospel. 8 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said: He'll kill you last. I don't kill anybody - that's what I have you for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcbigski Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Uniting around Biden is itself a terrible idea. He was always more than a little off, but he looks like he's really lost his shit. Dog faced pony soldier, Fat, going to appoint first woman African American Senator. He might as well have a second head and third arm, he has no capacity left for wielding power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, mcbigski said: Dog faced pony soldier, Fat, going to appoint first woman African American Senator. I get the other two, but what is "Fat" here? Musta missed that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshwater Spartan Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 22 minutes ago, DMC said: Plus, I guess you get more time to complain about Sanders until the overwhelming likelihood/inevitability that he's the nominee is realized. I like how Steyer was the only one to drop out last night - and he came in a solid third! Now Bloomberg gets to come in and split up the anti-Bernie vote so as to ensure Biden won't be able to match Sanders' delegate count - effectively doing the exact opposite of his ostensible reason for running. If anti-Sanders Democrats were serious, they’d unite around Biden right now - How are Bernie Sanders’s elite Democratic opponents this incompetent? The only answer I have to this is just to point out how completely uninspiring Biden is as a candidate. No passion. No vision. No agenda beyond trying to go back to the good old days. He hasn't looked to healthy or sharp either. All I wanted this election was a decent candidate who wasn't pushing 80 years old. Good Lord even if Sanders or Biden win does anyone see either of them running in 2024. Hope their VP knows how to campaign. This year's Democratic field in retrospect is looking incredibly weak. I have never been so dejected about a nominee since Al Gore and that year I voted Nader. We all know how that turned out. Vox is right. The rally around Biden should have begun weeks ago. Rally around a near dead moderate. What an awful set of circumstances we find ourselves in. The three worst candidates are our only real choices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said: The only answer I have to this is just to point out how completely uninspiring Biden is as a candidate. No passion. No vision. No agenda beyond trying to go back to the good old days. He hasn't looked to healthy or sharp either. Y'all aren't gonna get me to defend Joe Biden as a candidate. But if you want to prevent Sanders, he's the Obi-Wan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcbigski Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, DMC said: I get the other two, but what is "Fat" here? Musta missed that one. Wasnt that how he was addressing the octogenarian he wanted to challenge to a push up contest or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, mcbigski said: Wasnt that how he was addressing the octogenarian he wanted to challenge to a push up contest or whatever. I thought that's when he called him "a damn liar?" I don't remember him calling the guy fat - I think he might have suggested he was "sedentary." Could be wrong though. Anyway, I thought the "damn liar" pushback was fine politically (although the challenge to a push-up contest would ideally be avoided). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcbigski Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Did Tulsi stop running or has DNC just completely unpersoned her? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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