US Politics: Pandemic Political Petard

[Larry of the Lawn]

Fuck GE.  They are everything wrong with corporate America.  They poisoned the Hudson River, profit immensely from imperialism and war, evade taxes, take advantage of labor all over the world, and helped give us Reagan.  Not going to shed any tears over Jack Welch.

[Zorral]

One might think this would have far greater and impact on primaries than Buttigieg's withdrawal:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/02/texas-polling-sites-closures-voting

Quote

 

In 2012, there was one polling place for every 4,000 residents. By 2018 that figure had dropped to one polling place per 7,700 residents. A 2019 paper by University of Houston political scientists found that after the county’s transition to vote centers, more voting locations were closed in Latinx neighborhoods than in non-Latinx neighborhoods, and that Latinx people had to travel farther to vote than non-Hispanic whites.

Some counties closed enough polling locations to violate Texas state law. Brazoria county, south of Houston, closed almost 60% of its polling locations between 2012 and 2018, causing it to fall below the statutory minimum, along with another county. In a statement, Brazoria county clerk Joyce Hudman said the closures were inadvertent, and that this would not happen again in 2020.

A Guardian analysis based on that report confirms what many activists have suspected: the places where the black and Latinx population is growing by the largest numbers have experienced the vast majority of the state’s poll site closures.

 

 

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't think Buttigieg's withdrawal indicates anything other than trying to maintain goodwill with the Democratic organization - which certainly is very rationale for an emergent 38 year old politician.  Its effect on tomorrow's results are very likely to be minimal at best: (1) he's doesn't have much support nationally or in most states competing tomorrow anyway; (2) as other have mentioned, his support is likely to be parceled out fairly evenly among the remaining candidates; (3) early voting mitigates any potential effects even after considering (1) & (2).

I think this is selling short the impact.  Yes, Buttigieg was polling in the 5-10% range in all the Super Tuesday states, and thus was unlikely to meet the 15% threshold for most districts.  But just because his support is indeed fairly well split between other candidates doesn't mean it won't have an impact.  Let's look at the following scenario for Texas, based on the thresholds on 538.

Buttigieg in race:  Sanders 30%, Biden 30%, Bloomberg 14%, Warren 13%, Buttigieg 8%, others 5%.

Approximate Delegates:  Biden 114, Sanders 114

Buttigieg drops out:  Sanders 32%, Biden 32%, Bloomberg 16%, Warren 15%, others 5%

Approximate Delegates:  Biden 76, Sanders 76, Bloomberg 38, Warren 38

 

That's a big difference.  Even more so in places where it's Biden crossing over the 15% threshold as a result of gaining a percentage or two.  Thanks to Buttigieg dropping out, Biden will probably cross the 15% threshold more or less nationwide (except VT). 

[Maithanet]

Amy Klobuchar also dropping out, endorsing Biden.

Super Tuesday is going to have a lot fewer candidates than we'd expected. 

[Rhom]

7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Amy Klobuchar also dropping out, endorsing Biden.

Super Tuesday is going to have a lot fewer candidates than we'd expected. 

Saw the same thing.  It frustrates me to no end that we essentially decide elections before anyone has really voted.  It’s clear the Dem establishment pushed both out.  Reports are that Pete got a call from Obama and then you’ve got Joe praising him and saying he’d love to have him in his administration.  

 I’m not a registered Dem, but I watched the debates with genuine interest.  It’s amazing to me that out of all the candidates, I thought Bernie and Biden performed the worst.  Biden by a country mile.  A week ago, all I heard from the media was that Biden was finished but acknowledged he would win South Carolina... a week later, he wins as predicted and now we’re all back on the Biden train?!!?

Give me a F’ing break.

[Fez]

7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Amy Klobuchar also dropping out, endorsing Biden.

Super Tuesday is going to have a lot fewer candidates than we'd expected. 

Well, she achieved her true goal of lasting longer than Buttigieg, so I guess it makes sense.

Still a bit surprised though; I thought she'd stay in through Super Tuesday to try to block Sanders in Minnesota. Maybe she was in danger of losing and didn't want that; or decided the benefits to Biden elsewhere would make it worthwhile.

[Zorral]

Aren't they already on the ballot though, no matter what, as they are registered candidates?  Or, what am I not knowing here?

Ah, the good boys and girls and dogs dropping out to please the party.

 

 

[lancerman]

1 minute ago, Zorral said:

Aren't they already on the ballot though, no matter what, as they are registered candidates?  Or, what am I not knowing here?

 

Yes and many people already voted early on them 

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, Zorral said:

Aren't they already on the ballot though, no matter what, as they are registered candidates?  Or, what am I not knowing here?

 

Yep, they're registered and people can vote for them. But most of the people who will vote are going to vote for someone actually running. 

[Fez]

1 minute ago, Zorral said:

Aren't they already on the ballot though, no matter what, as they are registered candidates?  Or, what am I not knowing here?

 

Any state that has finalized their ballots, yeah (a place like DC, that doesn't vote until June, they probably won't be on the ballot). But primary voters are more engaged than general election voters, most will hear this news and vote for someone else.

The bigger issue is the early voters who voted for one of them; those votes are set and now wasted. And are why, much as I support early voting in general, I think its a bit of a mistake to do it in a primary.

[Zorral]

1 minute ago, lancerman said:

Yes and many people already voted early on them 

Thank you!

As with Nevada's early voting prior to the debate where Warren did so well, I am not in favor of early voting.

[Guy Kilmore]

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

Well, she achieved her true goal of lasting longer than Buttigieg, so I guess it makes sense.

Still a bit surprised though; I thought she'd stay in through Super Tuesday to try to block Sanders in Minnesota. Maybe she was in danger of losing and didn't want that; or decided the benefits to Biden elsewhere would make it worthwhile.

Or keeping to the middle, endorsing Biden to maintain a relationship there, and to get out of the way, because isn't Bernie favored to win Minnesota? If so it maintains a relationship there.

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Saw the same thing.  It frustrates me to no end that we essentially decide elections before anyone has really voted.  It’s clear the Dem establishment pushed both out.  Reports are that Pete got a call from Obama and then you’ve got Joe praising him and saying he’d love to have him in his administration.  

I dunno about this.  The party wants to unify and winnow the field, and if your results in the first 4 states are bad and you're polls are going nowhere, it's time to drop out.  Could you elaborate on why you want candidates who are polling well below the 15% threshold nationally to stick around?  What purpose does that serve?  I mean, I'm really frustrated that our choices have shrunk to this pool of four white septugenarians, and my frustration will go up 10X once Warren drops out, but that's a problem with who voters are choosing to support, not with people dropping out too early.   

Quote

 I’m not a registered Dem, but I watched the debates with genuine interest.  It’s amazing to me that out of all the candidates, I thought Bernie and Biden performed the worst.  Biden by a country mile.  A week ago, all I heard from the media was that Biden was finished but acknowledged he would win South Carolina... a week later, he wins as predicted and now we’re all back on the Biden train?!!?

I assume you aren't including Bloomberg in that, because his debates were on a whole new level of awful.  Biden was easily the worst aside from Bloomberg.  I personally find Sanders to be a poor debater (repetitive, grating, and vague), but other people more enamored with him seem to think he's a solid debator.  He's better than Biden regardless. 

But I agree that being a good debator is not a useful metric for this primary since Warren, Buttigieg and Booker were the strongest in that regard, and look what happened to them. 

[Fez]

News now that Mayor Pete is endorsing Biden; which is not unexpected.

Also, Harry Reid is endorsing Biden. Not sure how much that matters, especially since Nevada already voted, but it is another sign of consolidation. Guess we'll see if "the party decides" still holds true or not for Democrats.

[Kalbear]

I think Klobuchar was basically in it only to smack Buttigieg around, and once she couldn't throw things at him her fire ran out. 

[Raja]

[lancerman]

13 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Thank you!

As with Nevada's early voting prior to the debate where Warren did so well, I am not in favor of early voting.

I am. People have things to do. I am booked all day tomorrow. I would not be voting if I couldn’t vote early. Blame people like Buttigieg and Klobuchar who were callous and waited last minute 

[Zorral]

The various ways in which a politician can be effective; a detailed account of what and how Bernie accomplishes, which isn't the zero that his opponents claim:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/what-bernie-sanders-really-got-done-in-his-29-years-in-congress?

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

In news that I'm sure everyone here will appreciate, Public Enemy has fired Flavor Flav (not sure why the Guardian spelt the first name that way) "following a dispute over the group performing at a Bernie Sanders rally". I presume he wanted money for the appearance and Chuck D didnt.

[Paladin of Ice]

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Acknowledging that that Coronavirus is almost assuredly going to get worse in America over the next month is not "rooting for it".  I am very concerned about the health of my family and friends.  I am also very angry about the Trump administration's incompetent response/coverup of the virus, and hope that this becomes a larger political problem for him. 

Thanks very much for writing this. I couldn’t immediately go back to respond or edit my post, but as someone who does work in a medical lab I find the idea of “rooting for” a potentially lethal virus abhorrent.

 I think it’s probably inevitable that it’s going to spread more, particularly the mini-outbreak in the Pacific Northwest where the headlines were talking about people walking around with it for weeks, meaning that everyone who went to school, work, a gym, movie theater, club, restaurant, bar, concert, etc.,etc. had a chance to spread it around the public.

 I can acknowledge those facts and the social and economic issues are going to make containment more difficult in the US, (like people who don’t get or can’t afford to get care when sick, people who live paycheck to paycheck and can’t take weeks to self quarantine when they get cold symptoms, etc.) without rooting for it to kill hundreds of thousands of people. Similarly, because of the statements and actions by Trump, I can say I can see how he can get a lot of blame if things do get bad without saying “Ooh, if 10,000 people die maybe Trump’s approval rating will fall in swing states! Oh boy oh boy!”

3 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

You're making a distinction without a difference.  No one is required to vote the way they did in 2016.  Claiming that all Republicans are going to line up behind Trump is defeatist and counter to reality.

And even if Republicans do all line up, Trump may well not get the same benefit of the doubt he enjoyed with independent and low information voters. Not to mention the Democrats that (hopefully) won’t be voting third party or leaving the spot for president blank on their ballots, or staying home instead.