US Politics: Pandemic Political Petard

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Steyer advertised a lot in South Carolina though, on par with what Bloomberg did in other states. I think the name recognition was comparable at least, and he flopped compared to his poll numbers.

Huh?  Steyer's final RCP average for SC was 11.7%.  He got 11.3%.  Same story in Nevada (he barely registered in NH and IA regardless).  I don't see what "flop" you're talking about here.  

[Fez]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

Huh?  Steyer's final RCP average for SC was 11.7%.  He got 11.3%.  Same story in Nevada (he barely registered in NH and IA regardless).  I don't see what "flop" you're talking about here.  

Yeah, the final polls got Steyer right, I didn't see that there were a bunch of last minute polls. My point was more that up until about 5 days before the vote his average was 15% and a bit before that he was at 18% and in second place. So I guess there was enough polling of the state to capture the movement away from him.

But with Bloomberg, the news has been moving even faster, and there hasn't been nearly as much polling. So I wouldn't be surprised if he underperforms the polls from a week ago even more than Steyer did.

[Maithanet]

My bold, totally not based on any polling prediction is that Warren wins more delegates than Bloomberg tonight. 

[Fragile Bird]

Hey guys! There’s an economic crisis going on in the US, the Fed cut the rate by 50 basis points! Even while Powell says the US economy is strong and unemployment at a 50 year low. 
 

Trump has already been tweeting that the Fed did not cut enough and he wants the return of quantitative easing.

Trump wants negative interest rates, because he thinks the banks would then pay him to borrow money! Can he be so damn stupid he doesn’t understand that it means the central bank does not pay interest to financial institutions for storing excess funds at the central bank? Financial institutions have to pay the central bank to store their money.

No bank in the US will lend money to Trump, let alone pay him to borrow.

Imagine, we had a discussion here many times about the debt people carry. You won’t be paid to borrow money, you will just have the habit of saving totally destroyed because there is no incentive whatsoever.

Btw, the big jump in the Dow yesterday was in reaction to the anticipated cut. For the first half hour today the markets jumped back and forth, up and down. Now everything is down, the Dow by 380. But it’s a long day, who knows what will happen.

[DMC]

16 minutes ago, Fez said:

My point was more that up until about 5 days before the vote his average was 15% and a bit before that he was at 18% and in second place.

Fair point, he did drop significantly in the last round of polls.  But, just cuz I'm bored and don't wanna write my lecture for tomorrow, we do have kind of a last round between the Data for Progress and Swayable polls, so let's take a look.  Bloomberg at least hits viability in CA, TX, NC, VA, TN, MA, CO, AL, AK, UT, and ME.  So, probably gonna have a good chunk that fucks Biden up.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

They just don't do anything. They don't talk about it, they don't make it an issue, they don't get voters worried about it. They talk about Bernie Sanders and set their media underlings out on that, however. Think, if half the time spent bitching about Bernie (bitching about Bernie, that's the new Democrat slogan--up there with a better deal) was spent on an issue like voter suppression, it might be on people's minds. Just a theory.

Maybe I’m reading this out of context, but what are you talking about? Every single Democrat talks about voter suppression.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Serious question, does Bloomberg really matter, and what does a typical Bloomberg voter look like and think at this point.

I mean the moderate Democrats, who don't feel the Bern, should really be able to read the writing on the wall at this point. If you want to stop Sanders from getting the nomination, you have to vote Biden.

The Warren voter is probably like I don't particularly like either Sanders or Biden as a candidate, but I will vote for them in the GE regardless.

I just have no idea how to describe a Bloomberg voter. Is this the I am actually a Republican, but the orange monster is just too much, you can just call me Mitt btw. voter?

[Fez]

Last minute MA poll just dropped: Warren 28, Biden 26, Sanders 26, Bloomberg 15. Biden had been in single digits before recent events. 

Another sign that the range of possibilities for tonight is extremely vast.

[Fragile Bird]

Start thinking about thread titles!

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

what does a typical Bloomberg voter look like and think at this point.

Looking over the Data for Progress crosstabs, such as they are, Bloomberg voters are almost all over 45, and yeah tend to be moderate - but not any more moderate than Biden's coalition (in fact even less so).  Education is a mixed bag, but my prior would be these are low-information middle-of-the-road voters that see him on the TV a lot and are like "sure sounds good."

[SpaceChampion]

8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Start thinking about thread titles!

Fear vs Anger

Contested Conversation

Billionaire's Follies

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

Looking over the Data for Progress crosstabs, such as they are, Bloomberg voters are almost all over 45, and yeah tend to be moderate - but not any more moderate than Biden's coalition (in fact even less so).  Education is a mixed bag, but my prior would be these are low-information middle-of-the-road voters that see him on the TV a lot and are like "sure sounds good."

A pity, I was basically starting to picture Mitt Romney with a fake mustache and a stetson hat caucassing for Bloomberg at a Democrat primary.

I mean I kinda get why Bloomberg can't let go of his run. This is pretty much his one and only shot at the presidency. He can't possibly run for the GOP in the future, his opposition to the orange one has probably closed off that path for good. And without the orange one in the oval office, Democrats probably wouldn't have much time for him either.

[Fez]

So the Dow skyrocketed yesterday on vague promises that central banks would act to protect the economy against coronavirus disruptions, and it is down 350 points right now today after the Fed actually cut interest rates. I will never understand the market.

Also, Powell apparently coughed during his statement. Almost certainly nothing. But in the movie version of all this, it would be the ominous sign that even the highest levels of government are falling victim.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

19 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Start thinking about thread titles!

A bilionaire jackass in the running or the elephant at the convention.

 

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, Fez said:

So the Dow skyrocketed yesterday on vague promises that central banks would act to protect the economy against coronavirus disruptions, and it is down 350 points right now today after the Fed actually cut interest rates. I will never understand the market.

Also, Powell apparently coughed during his statement. Almost certainly nothing. But in the movie version of all this, it would be the ominous sign that even the highest levels of government are falling victim.

Yesterday was a relief rally. Hold onto your horses, there will be many wild days over the next three to six months.

[Kalbear]

2 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

They just don't do anything. They don't talk about it, they don't make it an issue, they don't get voters worried about it. They talk about Bernie Sanders and set their media underlings out on that, however. Think, if half the time spent bitching about Bernie (bitching about Bernie, that's the new Democrat slogan--up there with a better deal) was spent on an issue like voter suppression, it might be on people's minds. Just a theory.

What has sanders done about it?

 

eta - if you actually cared about this more than today, you would have been supporting harris, castro and Buttigieg, who talked about this every time they got a chance. The reason the media doesnt talk about it as much is the same reason you dont.

[Raja]

14 minutes ago, Fez said:

Almost certainly nothing. But in the movie version of all this, it would be the ominous sign that even the highest levels of government are falling victim. 

This exact thing happened in Iran, so not the just the movie version!