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Kalbear

US Politics: Pandemic Political Petard

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Uniting around Biden is itself a terrible idea.  He was always more than a little off, but he looks like he's really lost his shit.  Dog faced pony soldier, Fat, going to appoint first woman African American Senator.  He might as well have a second head and third arm, he has no capacity left for wielding power.

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1 minute ago, mcbigski said:

Dog faced pony soldier, Fat, going to appoint first woman African American Senator.

I get the other two, but what is "Fat" here?  Musta missed that one.

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22 minutes ago, DMC said:

Plus, I guess you get more time to complain about Sanders until the overwhelming likelihood/inevitability that he's the nominee is realized.  I like how Steyer was the only one to drop out last night - and he came in a solid third!  Now Bloomberg gets to come in and split up the anti-Bernie vote so as to ensure Biden won't be able to match Sanders' delegate count - effectively doing the exact opposite of his ostensible reason for running.

If anti-Sanders Democrats were serious, they’d unite around Biden right now - How are Bernie Sanders’s elite Democratic opponents this incompetent?

 

The only answer I have to this is just to point out how completely uninspiring Biden is as a candidate. No passion. No vision.  No agenda beyond trying to go back to the good old days. He hasn't looked to healthy or sharp either.

All I wanted this election was a decent candidate who wasn't pushing 80 years old. Good Lord even if Sanders or Biden win does anyone see either of them running in 2024. Hope their VP knows how to campaign. This year's Democratic field in retrospect is looking incredibly weak. I have never been so dejected about a nominee since Al Gore and that year I voted Nader. We all know how that turned out.

Vox is right. The rally around Biden should have begun weeks ago. Rally around a near dead moderate. What an awful set of circumstances we find ourselves in. The three worst candidates are our only real choices

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2 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

The only answer I have to this is just to point out how completely uninspiring Biden is as a candidate. No passion. No vision.  No agenda beyond trying to go back to the good old days. He hasn't looked to healthy or sharp either.

Y'all aren't gonna get me to defend Joe Biden as a candidate.  But if you want to prevent Sanders, he's the Obi-Wan.

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4 minutes ago, DMC said:

I get the other two, but what is "Fat" here?  Musta missed that one.

Wasnt that how he was addressing the octogenarian he wanted to challenge to a push up contest or whatever.  

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1 minute ago, mcbigski said:

Wasnt that how he was addressing the octogenarian he wanted to challenge to a push up contest or whatever.  

I thought that's when he called him "a damn liar?"  I don't remember him calling the guy fat - I think he might have suggested he was "sedentary."  Could be wrong though.  Anyway, I thought the "damn liar" pushback was fine politically (although the challenge to a push-up contest would ideally be avoided).

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Did Tulsi stop running or has DNC just completely unpersoned her?

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Did Tulsi stop running or has DNC just completely unpersoned her?

I don't think anyone "unperson"s you when you're polling below 1%

 

There is still a small faction of the quackier left who think she's going to be Sanders VP pick, lol

Edited by larrytheimp

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1 hour ago, larrytheimp said:

I don't think anyone "unperson"s you when you're polling below 1%

 

There is still a small faction of the quackier left who think she's going to be Sanders VP pick, lol

But she has cross-over appeal to wacky right libertarians, so any day now she's gonna surge!!

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Okay, I already know that I'm just going to get accused of sour grapes, but I just have to say how disgusted I am by media coverage, and I completely understand the conservative impulse to surround one's self in a media bubble.

A week ago, major news anchors were implying that Sanders was going to be rounding them up in death camps in Central Park. Sanders cruises to a 27% victory in Nevada, and a thousand think pieces decry him as a dangerous candidate, ignoring every single piece of polling evidence that Democratic voters largely like him.

Meanwhile, Biden finishes 4th, 5th, a district 2nd in Nevada, and then "crushes" Sanders by 28% in South Carolina, and is essentially being anointed the savior of the Democratic party. Meanwhile, there's no context given that Sanders raised $46 million in February, that Biden had only spent $900,000 in Super Tuesday states as of last week, has virtually no field offices in any Super Tuesday state, is being crushed by Sanders in California where 70% of votes have already been cast, etc. 

Biden won big last night, and I'm not taking anything away from that. But the media desperately needs a horse race, and it's doing it's damndest to create one, and that's bullshit.

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So, how would Trump evade term limits, assuming he lasted that long? Interesting article, but not sure any of these strategies really apply here in the U.S. Only the court option is something that could even remotely happen. 

One thing comes to mind. Family. They could 16 more years in power out of Jivanka alone.

 

The World Is Experiencing a New Form of Autocracy
Today’s authoritarians use legal measures to subvert constitutional constraints on their power.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/new-authoritarianism/607045/

Quote

 

This is how authoritarianism looks today. Our original study documents all term-limit-evasion strategies worldwide since the year 2000. We found that presidential-term-limit evasion is exceedingly common: About one-third of all presidents who reached the end of their term made a serious attempt to overstay. Two-thirds of those who made the attempt succeeded.

What’s particularly interesting is not only that so many presidents try to evade term limits, but that they are more and more sophisticated and legalistic in how they do so. Whereas leaders once used unmistakably authoritarian actions to stay in power, such as banning opposition parties or dismissing the legislature, today’s heads of state instead use democratic institutions and legal measures to subvert constitutional constraints on their power. More specifically, we found that there are four basic strategies for evading term limits, none of which violates a constitution outright: adding constitutional amendments, rewriting the constitution, using the courts to reinterpret the constitution, and appointing a placeholder president.

 

 

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1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Okay, I already know that I'm just going to get accused of sour grapes, but I just have to say how disgusted I am by media coverage, and I completely understand the conservative impulse to surround one's self in a media bubble.

Methinks you have part of that exactly backwards.  Unless to stretch the metaphor, the bubble is floating in the lefty sympathizing media ocean.  But at least you re now a fish that's discovered water.  You've taken your first step into a larger world.

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Just now, mcbigski said:

Methinks you have part of that exactly backwards.  Unless to stretch the metaphor, the bubble is floating in the lefty sympathizing media ocean.  But at least you re now a fish that's discovered water.  You've taken your first step into a larger world.

Ha. You’re funny. Is this part of your stand up?

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3 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Methinks you have part of that exactly backwards.  Unless to stretch the metaphor, the bubble is floating in the lefty sympathizing media ocean.  But at least you re now a fish that's discovered water.  You've taken your first step into a larger world.

I'm not the bubble, you're the bubble!

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1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Biden won big last night, and I'm not taking anything away from that. But the media desperately needs a horse race, and it's doing it's damndest to create one, and that's bullshit.

I agree with you that the media focuses on the horse race and tries to simplify contests to mano-a-mano. The media constantly underestimated Sanders to its peril particularly in a divided field.  But I don't agree with your inference that the motive is bias for or against Sanders.  It's just the need to tell a simple story.  It could have been Pete who was the beneficiary of this attention but for the hijinks at the Iowa caucus. 

 

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Wasn't it the latinx vote in Nevada, not the African American vote, that put Sanders so far ahead in Nevada?

So, one is interested in California and Texas results, which has very significant numbers of voters from all the various latinx, African American -- and Asian American -- voters. And Middle Eastern too, particularly in Texas due to the oil bidness.

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Silver has five different stories about the South Caroline results.  My gut is that #2 is the most likely, but who knows.  

 

Quote

 

Hypothesis No. 2: The disparate results so far are simply reflective of the geographic and demographic strengths and weaknesses of the candidates. The notion of “momentum” is mostly a mirage.

If this is the case, you could wind up with a very regionally-driven primary, with Biden doing well in the South but perhaps not so well everywhere else. This is more or less what our model expects to happen, for what it’s worth; it now has Biden favored in every Southern Super Tuesday state except Texas, and he’s an underdog everywhere outside of the South.

The counter to this: Biden clearly did much better in South Carolina counties and precincts that weren’t as emblematic of his base than he had in those kinds of districts in other states. The counter to the counter: Geographic factors pick up a lot of information that demographics alone miss. So his strong performance in certain parts of South Carolina may bode well for how he’ll do in Alabama or North Carolina or Georgia. It may not say much about his performance in Michigan or California, however.

Degree of concern for Sanders if this hypothesis is true: Low to moderate. Sanders led Biden by about 12 points in national polls heading into South Carolina. Moreover, our model — which uses demographics in its forecast — has Sanders ahead. So although Biden has some strong groups and regions, Sanders’s coalition looks as though it’s slightly bigger and broader overall — although a post-South Carolina bounce for Biden or swoon for Sanders could eat into that advantage.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Muaddibs_Tapeworm said:

Looks like all those Latin Americans that would never vote for Bernie because something-something-Castro-Venezuela are pushing him over the edge in Texas

Did people argue this? Castro mostly matters only to older Cubans. I expect most Central and South Americans don't give a damn. Venezuela matters to older Cubans too, due to the socialist thing, and I suppose ex-pat Venezeulans may care a little more about it, but I'm not sure there's going to be much of a feeling about it elsewhere.

Personally, I'm starting to lean towards Biden for our primary in Florida. Warren is nearer my ideal as a candidate, but I'm pragmatic about these things, and right now when I look at SC and the fact that the turnout was so heavy, but that new voters preferred Biden to Sanders, it makes me think a bit about the bigger picture. There's a narrative that Sanders is going to be the guy to bring about fresh turnout, but mostly these primaries have not supported that notion.

The ideal situation, either way, is no brokered convention. Fingers crossed.

Edited by Ran

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We were operating two precincts at our polling place yesterday.  Sanders won one precinct and came in second in the other by 26 votes.

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It would be interesting to find out how many of Sanders votes in SC actually did come from Republicans. As dominant as Biden was, it's possible he would have been even more dominant had Republicans not been able to vote in the Democratic primary. And can you imagine what the news channels would have looked like over the last month or two if SC had been the first state to vote? Starting with Iowa and New Hampshire, states that look nothing like America as a whole, is garbage.

Any indication that the young voters we are supposed to depend on to propel Bernie to victory are getting out in higher numbers?

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