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Kalbear Total Landscaping

US Politics: Pandemic Political Petard

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Unless the Democrats elect the president, then I'd say Buttigieg is easily the winner of these primaries. His run was clearly to make a name for himself state and nationally wise, and in that regard he was an astonishing success.

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538 thinks Pete dropping out increases the chances of a contested convention, since it increases the chance of Warren and Bloomberg getting over the 15% delegate cut-off in various places.

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Why Elizabeth Warren thinks she can still win the nomination
The senator might end Super Tuesday having not won a single of the 18 states that have voted. But she insists she's not going anywhere.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/01/warren-hail-mary-strategy-nomination-118319

Quote

 

“[A]s the dust settles after March 3, the reality of this race will be clear: no candidate will likely have a path to the majority of delegates needed to win an outright claim to the Democratic nomination,” Lau predicted in a memo released Sunday. “In the road to the nomination, the Wisconsin primary is halftime, and the convention in Milwaukee is the final play.”

Biden’s dominant performance in South Carolina, however, could imperil that strategy if voters flock to him as the most viable alternative to Sanders. As results from the Nevada caucus results came in last weekend, Lau also predicted that Biden’s distant second-place finish was “further evidence of his steep decline.” Lau added on Twitter: “As we’ve said previously, further Biden collapse makes the race even more fluid.”

Instead, Biden won South Carolina by more than 28 points.

Still, the Warren campaign has long anticipated Biden would do well on Super Tuesday, with another memo earlier this month predicting he would be viable in 96% of districts.

After raising over $29 million in February, Warren probably can afford to let her strategy play out. The campaign has also gotten a major boost from a shadowy super PAC that has swooped in to provide over $14 million in air cover. Based on publicly available data, she has more resources than any candidate besides Sanders and Mike Bloomberg — certainly more than Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

Unless the Democrats elect the president, then I'd say Buttigieg is easily the winner of these primaries. His run was clearly to make a name for himself state and nationally wise, and in that regard he was an astonishing success.

Definitely in terms of national exposure.

If a Democrat wins the presidency there's also the prospect of many of these contenders, Buttigieg included, serving in a Democratic administration. There's talk of Kamala Harris being either Biden's running mate or a potential Attorney-General, etc.

It's all a moot point, though, as I doubt we'll see a Democratic president in the next four years.

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42 minutes ago, Jeor said:

Definitely in terms of national exposure.

If a Democrat wins the presidency there's also the prospect of many of these contenders, Buttigieg included, serving in a Democratic administration. There's talk of Kamala Harris being either Biden's running mate or a potential Attorney-General, etc.

It's all a moot point, though, as I doubt we'll see a Democratic president in the next four years.

you underrate Trumps ability to shoot himself in the foot

 

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13 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

And you overestimate the public's actual caring.

Exactly. Trump had scandal after scandal on his way to the Presidency. At the end of the day he is going to be an incumbant with a strong economy going against an extremely fractured Democratic Party. 

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26 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Exactly. Trump had scandal after scandal on his way to the Presidency. At the end of the day he is going to be an incumbant with a strong economy going against an extremely fractured Democratic Party. 

Of course. The odds of him losing aren’t great. More Democrats should recognize this instead pretending this uncomfortable truth isn’t so.

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5 minutes ago, Triskele said:

But there's a legit chance that coronavirus could cause a recession or expedite one that was overdue anyway.  

That Don Jr. statement has an element of truth to it.  Not necessarily that Dems want people to die, but there is the possibility of tragedy being a thing that hurts Trump.

That said, I've seen a counterargument that it could help Trump in the sense that it could help build antiglobalist sentiment.  

Trump could just fear monger and say he's banning all foreigners from coming in and then the Democrats would be stuck arguing against it

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23 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Trump could just fear monger and say he's banning all foreigners from coming in and then the Democrats would be stuck arguing against it

Which is what right-wing autocrats are already doing in Europe.

I mean if he did change his message the vast majority of his supporters would not bat an eye.

Edited by Varysblackfyre321

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3 hours ago, lancerman said:

Trump could just fear monger and say he's banning all foreigners from coming in and then the Democrats would be stuck arguing against it

So?  A receding or even stagnant economy will still hurt an incumbent's reelection chances, according to, like, every presidential election ever.  Dismissing everything as "Trump could just _________" smacks of a pointlessly defeatist attitude.

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7 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

Klobuchar drops out Wednesday?

Almost certainly. It's hard to envision her doing particularly well almost anyplace besides Minnesota, and harder to imagine that she has the funds, organization, or coordination to take the campaign further.

7 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

Anyone think Bloomberg will drop out before Tuesday?

I would be shocked. Bloomberg is in a life and death struggle against the progressive left. I've no doubt that he genuinely despises Trump on both a personal and professional level and likely thinks Trump is a danger to the country, but he utterly hates the people who want to raise his taxes or make him put up with racial and other minorities. A guy who literally said his first goal is to defend the banks, and who responded to questions about the rise of the far right internationally including white supremacists and white nationalists by saying "The left is just as scary. Elizabeth Warren on one side, whoever you want to think of from the Republicans on the other side." (See this article and go about 12:15 into the soundcloud file in it.)

For whatever reason, Bloomberg lost faith in the idea that Biden could weather these political storms and come out on top. So that means, in his arrogant mind, it's up to him to do it right. I'm inclined to think that after coming this far and sticking his foot into things, something big would have to happen for him to decide to suddenly drop out, put all his faith in the moderate candidate again, and be willing to throw money at the problem from the sidelines.

Which is fine by me, cause Bloomberg doesn't seem likely to win anything, and as long as Bloomberg is in he takes away from Biden's chances, and increases the odds for those in the progressive lane, so run Mike, run.

7 hours ago, Fez said:

And who knows or cares what Tulsi Gabbard will do.

Basically. Gabbard could just as easily end her campaign tomorrow or try to storm the stage at the convention, but the one thing that is certain is that nobody will care.

7 hours ago, Zorral said:

Buttigieg has pretty clearly been smarming for VP spot with both Biden and bloomb.

I'm pretty sure that Buttigieg is all about his own personal ambition and nothing more. (Basically, he's Hamilton's depiction of Aaron Burr, at least with what I've seen so far.) My first thought was that he was just calling a halt because he can't win but still has his profile raised and hasn't lost yet or said anything that would taint him or come back to haunt him in a later election.

But apparently his folding was even more sudden than it seemed. According to the news, he was supposed to give a speech in Dallas, and they were already there and the stage was set before he put out that info about suspending his campaign. That does lend some credence to the idea of someone promising him a position, or maybe support in a future political campaign. Time will tell.

Quote

Trump had scandal after scandal on his way to the Presidency. At the end of the day he is going to be an incumbant with a strong economy going against an extremely fractured Democratic Party. 

Those are a lot of assumptions though. Will the economy still be strong when you have multiple companies already predicting that there will be zero profits for the year and key sectors hurting even before this latest blow?

COVID-19 is in the US, and probably much more widespread than we know right now, because we're barely testing for it. But you have both travelers from abroad and American tourists who visited countries before they knew there was an outbreak there walking through airports and into cities with cold and flu symptoms for weeks now, you have it being found in public places like schools in Oregon and people in Manhattan. You have healthcare workers sick in California from treating patients. It's out in the country, and when it gets spread more and gets more bad headlines, Trump's handling and decisions in the lead up are going to look like the sort of shortsighted incompetence/ignorance that no politician wants in an election year.

And if Democrats don't mess things up too badly, the whole "vote blue no matter who" thing might win out and heal (or at least cover up) a lot of those fractures. But again, time will tell.

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I don't think the coronavirus is as clearly a negative for the Trump administration as some people think it is. Firstly, at a fundamental level his supporters (and some moderates) can correctly claim that, out of all the things he's started, this one genuinely isn't down to him - the coronavirus is just a freak external thing that happened on his watch.

Of course, how the federal government responds to the crisis is still something Democrats can hammer him on, but that is more a messaging thing and we know how good the Dems are at that...

Their best chance is probably to keep banging on about healthcare in general, especially in light of coronavirus where people will think it could happen to them and they might need a functioning health system, but while the debate is still raging on the left about Medicare for all vs other systems, the messaging gets cluttered and isn't as easy a sell as it should be.

Edited by Jeor

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So it's getting to the point where it looks like it will be Biden vs Bernie. A moderate versus a Progressive. That will be a real contest. since until now the moderate vote has been split.

Much as I love Bernie and all he's stood for, maybe it would be better if Biden won. He could truly unite the party behind him, along with all the "Never Trump" neocons. Progressives simply do not like his record and may not turn out for him, but he might have a good chance of winning the states where Hillary lost as they seem to see him as one of their own, as opposed to Hillary who was a typical coastal elite.

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2 hours ago, Darryk said:

So it's getting to the point where it looks like it will be Biden vs Bernie. A moderate versus a Progressive. That will be a real contest. since until now the moderate vote has been split.

Much as I love Bernie and all he's stood for, maybe it would be better if Biden won. He could truly unite the party behind him, along with all the "Never Trump" neocons. Progressives simply do not like his record and may not turn out for him, but he might have a good chance of winning the states where Hillary lost as they seem to see him as one of their own, as opposed to Hillary who was a typical coastal elite.

I don’t think either will unite the Party. I’ve also heard the song about Republicans defecting. Never happens. They’ll slam Biden on the Ukraine and shit and that will be their excuse 

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9 hours ago, lancerman said:

Exactly. Trump had scandal after scandal on his way to the Presidency. At the end of the day he is going to be an incumbant with a strong economy going against an extremely fractured Democratic Party. 

I'm not a huge Bill Maher fan, but I did catch some of his show this weekend, and he made an interesting point that Coronavirus may be the one thing he can't lie his way out of. I guess it depends, but if it gets half as bad as some people are worrying about, it would be difficult for Trump to wave his hand and say "fake news" when people are dying in the U.S. Though as I type this, wtf? Of course he can and will do this, and of course it will work. 

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7 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

I'm not a huge Bill Maher fan, but I did catch some of his show this weekend, and he made an interesting point that Coronavirus may be the one thing he can't lie his way out of. I guess it depends, but if it gets half as bad as some people are worrying about, it would be difficult for Trump to wave his hand and say "fake news" when people are dying in the U.S. Though as I type this, wtf? Of course he can and will do this, and of course it will work. 

If COVID-19 gets truly bad, I don't think so. Much like the opioid epidemic ravaging white America forced a lot of Republicans to become supportive of substance use treatment programs (and for Congressional Republicans to reject out of hand Trump's attempts to cut funding); if the virus spreads rapidly and is serious it'll force another reckoning.

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21 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

I'm not a huge Bill Maher fan, but I did catch some of his show this weekend, and he made an interesting point that Coronavirus may be the one thing he can't lie his way out of. I guess it depends, but if it gets half as bad as some people are worrying about, it would be difficult for Trump to wave his hand and say "fake news" when people are dying in the U.S. Though as I type this, wtf? Of course he can and will do this, and of course it will work. 

The thing that gives me pause is that Trump fans are among those who claimed Sandy Hook never happened.  Whats to stop them from doing the same thing here?

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Remember I said the markets wouldn’t like Trump’s Covid-19 press conference on Friday? 
On the weekend the futures showed a Monday opening down 750 points, but yesterday they started to rise and did a +1,000 point swing, showing up 250. This was due, apparently, to widespread rumors the Fed would’ve immediately announcing a 50 basis point cut in interest rates.

The Dow did open up 250, struggled for a while to cross 300, then has been slowly slipping down, up 163 as I write, oops...up 98 as I write, now 130. It will be an interesting day.

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4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The thing that gives me pause is that Trump fans are among those who claimed Sandy Hook never happened.  Whats to stop them from doing the same thing here?

Even among Trump supporters that's gotta be a small fraction of people.  Like a handful of Alex Jones freaks.

And even a fractured Dem party should be united against Trump, unless we're all full of shit.  Biden or Sanders can beat Trump, they might not be '08 Obama 'good candidates' but I think they either would out perform Clinton.

 

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