Jump to content

US Politics: Pandemic Political Petard


Kalbear

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I cant quite figure out how to make up those 12 ECs. Maybe move IA to tossup, but cant see any other combination giving up 6 ECs (of course, I am assuming a generic D would carry all Sanders states) 

I would assume it is Arizona plus ME-2. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm really wondering if even a big Biden win on Saturday will help him out much on Super Tuesday. Three days isn't much time to craft a "Comeback Kid" narrative, and the last article I read on the subject said that Biden barely has a presence in any Super Tuesday state, and has only spent about $900,000 in ad buys.

Doubtless having his best debate performance and Rep. Clyburn's heartfelt endorsement of Biden played a big role in his bounceback in SC, but there won't be another debate before Super Tuesday, and I don't think there is any Super Tuesday state where one person's endorsement could have that significant of an impact.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have this weird scenario forming in my head.

The stock market continues to fall until people decide it's fallen enough, the bargains are too compelling. This fall has been the fastest correction (a drop of 10% or more) in history, but as I mentioned already, it may fall another 15% to bring it to reasonable valuation levels.

I wonder if that will happen once bad news starts rolling out. Watching the way the cases of the virus have rapidly multiplied and then peaked in China, I think the fall will stop because the market will decide the bad news is out and has been priced in and it's safe to buy.

Then the question is, will market madness return, will people be buying with both hands? I don't think it will go up as fast as it went down because most people will be busy with making sure they don't catch the virus and maybe there will be lay-offs and school and business closings. And they will be wary. Even though the market went up steadily after 2009, it was mainly driven by pros, the public did not start participating until the Dow got well over 20,000 and then really got into it the last two years. I mean, the markets were up 30% in the last year.

The rise happens over the summer. This may be the dead cat bounce. In September third quarter numbers roll out and the bad news is really ugly, even though people knew the numbers had to be bad. Rinse and repeat.

The Dow Jones was at 17,148 at the start of January, 2016. While I don't see it falling that far, it could flirt with dropping below 20,000, wiping out most of the gains during the Trump presidency. That would be an utter disaster for Trump.

And he is very very angry at the markets right now.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Didn't see this before.  Yes, in that case I'm sorry for being a dick.  Usually when I'm really a dick I'll either apologize for it or know it the next morning/afternoon when I wake up.  Even here, any time I can provide information that might be useful, sober me does want to do that, so again, sorry, and feel free to pm me or whatever on that front.

No worries, guess who else might act like a dick sometimes? (Hint: me) Thanks for hearing me out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Working on my gerontocracy themed concept album in anticipation of a receptive audience come November, on which a secret track will advocate nominating the frozen head of Ted Williams in 2028.

Can we at least unfreeze the Splended Splinter?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

This Biden parody account is a thing of beauty

I've always thought that it would be funny if Hillary had made a twitter account that just pretended to be from the timeline where she's president for the last four years.  Go all in on it, and just give statements re-assuring the public, directing public policy, all that.  But never ever mention Trump.  Except maybe as a one off with regards for his conviction as a russian asset or something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This national popular vote thing seems to be gaining enough momentum to annoy the RNC chair.  Wonder if there is any chance it'll come to pass this election, and if the SC will nix it in a hurry?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/gop-chairwoman-suggests-rnc-plans-to-get-litigious-over-push-for-national-popular-vote/ar-BB10wOWD?ocid=msnclassic

"I think it is devastating to our country to get rid of the electoral vote. This is what the founders intended for every state to have representation," McDaniel told attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference during a panel with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

 

"Stay tuned because the RNC is not going to let this go, and there's something coming," she added.

"Let me just say, I have an intention to be the most litigious chair in history," McDaniel said. "I think what Democrats have done systematically to take away our rights, to rig the election system, and this, to take away our votes, our Electoral College votes, and have California and New York dictate who the next president of the United States ..."

Cruz said the push would "probably" be unconstitutional.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

States get to decide how they award their EC votes, no?  That's why Maine can divvy them up individually, and most choose to award them based on who wins the state.  If enough states pass laws to award them based on popular vote, and they have enough EC votes to win a majority, what could the SC possibly do?  It's almost like the GOP only likes states rights when it serves their purpose, or something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, aceluby said:

States get to decide how they award their EC votes, no?  That's why Maine can divvy them up individually, and most choose to award them based on who wins the state.  If enough states pass laws to award them based on popular vote, and they have enough EC votes to win a majority, what could the SC possibly do?  It's almost like the GOP only likes states rights when it serves their purpose, or something.

That's not what states rights mean, you silly goose!

 

(Tongue firmly in cheek).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Probably got a few boarder's here that will take serious issue with this article, but what the heck;

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/a-poll-from-trumps-favorite-network-has-him-losing-to-his-most-likely-2020-opponents/ar-BB10wrT4?ocid=msnclassic

The charts are interesting

I think almost everyone here believes that if the popular vote counted for anything, Trump would very likely lose to basically anyone running.    The concern is whether someone like Sanders could can keep the high turnout of suburbanites and moderates in electorally strategic locations who brought Dems victory in 2018.   I think even the most Sanders skeptical among us anticipate he’ll win the popular vote.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

This national popular vote thing seems to be gaining enough momentum to annoy the RNC chair.  Wonder if there is any chance it'll come to pass this election, and if the SC will nix it in a hurry?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/gop-chairwoman-suggests-rnc-plans-to-get-litigious-over-push-for-national-popular-vote/ar-BB10wOWD?ocid=msnclassic

 

 

Quote

"Let me just say, I have an intention to be the most litigious chair in history," McDaniel said. "I think what Democrats have done systematically to take away our rights, to rig the election system, and this, to take away our votes, our Electoral College votes, and have California and New York dictate who the next president of the United States ..."

The irony in that McDaniel quote is killing me

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...