Formula One 2020

[Winterfell is Burning]

Haven't seem more than a few laps of this race, but from the looks of it, I'm glad I didn't waste my time.

[williamjm]

3 hours ago, polishgenius said:

Absolute disasterclass from Ferrari today.

They must be dreading Monza next weekend. Perhaps its best for them that there won't be any Tifosi in attendance.

[Werthead]

The midfield battle was excellent. If that had been the battle for first, it would have been a great race. Gasly's amazing performances in that car are really embarrassing Kvyat though, and they really need to get rid of him. If that means bringing someone else in from outside the Red Bull programme, fuck it and go for it.

Albon did well today, but was screwed by Red Bull's strategy rather than any of his own problems.

Interesting discussion with Steiner before the race where he admitted they are looking at changing one or both drivers, and have had discussions with Hulkenberg. He also seemed to hint that Haas was basically going to quit, but the new concorde agreement has made staying more attractive.

There does seem to be a general consensus that this is looking like Ferrari's worst season in 40 years, which I thought was hyperbole but looking at the stats, the last time Ferrari finished below 4th was 1981, and the last time lower than 5th was in 1980. Although they did come 10th in 1980, so it is physically impossible for them to do worse than that, at least.

There is a very real chance that Ferrari could come 7th this year, with only Haas, Williams and Alfa Romeo being worse than them. And even that's not a given. The big problem with the Ferrari seems to be the huge amount of drag the car generates, which their engine overcame with brute force in the last three seasons. With the engine apparently nerfed, the drag is now destroying them, and that's not something they can fix without a massive mid-season redesign which I don't think would be allowed in the rules.

The only other thing they can do is turn up the engine to the maximum it can go and run it at the highest power they can for as long as they can, and if that means burning through 10 engines and taking the penalties they could just say sod it and do it. Leclerc still driving the wheels off the thing today, with that early attacking charge knowing he couldn't sustain it remotely but going for it anyway.

Really interesting discussion on the BBC F1 podcast where apparently the scuttlebutt behind the scenes was that F1 basically did not negotiate the concorde agreement; they held firm to all their positions and everyone, even Ferrari and Mercedes, caved in rather than fulfil their bluff that they were going to walk away from the sport. If they'd met the big teams even halfway on exceptions on the spending cap, it would have made a mockery of the spirit of the new deal, and there seems to be renewed respect for Liberty and Chase Carey for hardballing the deal.

[Werthead]

Sir Frank and Claire Williams step down from the Williams F1 team.

This seemed likely to happen ever since the buy-out, but still sad times. Williams haven't had a long run of success for a while, but they did mount a credible campaign in 2014-15 (coming 3rd for two years in a row, with multiple podium finishes, and beating Ferrari in 2014 and Red Bull in 2015) and a solid performance in 2016-17, coming 5th in both years. Nine constructors championships with seven drivers is nothing to sneeze at.

Still, they hadn't had a win since that very weird fluke win by Maldonado in 2012, and they haven't won a constructor's or driver's championship since 1997.

[Toth]

So it's official now, all we need for an exciting race is Hamilton to give everybody a 30 seconds headstart and Bottas to have his engine burn up.

[polishgenius]

2 hours ago, Toth said:

Bottas to have his engine burn up.

 

Mercedes have clearly built the car with the assumption that they'll always be frontrunning- Hamilton although he got through well enough eventually had the exact same issue while he was running through the pack where he couldn't slipstream coz it was cooking his engine, kept losing time by peeling off to the side.

Anyway delighted for Gasly, a year after being shunted out of Red Bull. Great decision to gamble on the yellow flags becoming a safety car and really paid off when the pit lane closed. That was just sloppy by Mercedes.

[Werthead]

It's always fun to see the running order mixed up and unusual cars in winning places. This was the first time since Australia 2013 (when Raikkonen won for Lotus) that a race was won by a car other than a Ferrari, Mercedes or Red Bull, which is quite insane when you think about it. 

I do think Mercedes and Hamilton can feel a bit aggrieved: the pit entry lights are in a really weird place in Monza (on the wrong side of the track and way off the driver's eyeline) and the initial problem simply wasn't worth a safety car in the first place (it's also unclear why they didn't run the Haas off the track through the gap in the fence just a few metres before where it stopped, rather than manually pushing it all the way back to the pits, which was bizarre). So it was a fun result, but it was the result of a really weird set of circumstances.

Red Bull should be careful because Gasly's outstanding performances are going to make other teams very interested in him. I suspect the teams that would be most interested in poaching him (Williams, Haas and maybe Alfa Romeo) would not be of interest to Gasly, but if Renault decide to dispense with a slightly underperforming Ocon after next year (if he doesn't pick up), that could be an issue for them. The only reason they might not swap Gasly for Albon is because for all Albon's woes, he is still performing better than Gasly did at Red Bull last year, but all it could take is a couple of really poor weekends for Albon's seat to be in danger.

[polishgenius]

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

that a race was won by a car other than a Ferrari, Mercedes or Red Bull, which is quite insane when you think about it. 

 

When was the last time none of the three even podiumed?
 

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I do think Mercedes and Hamilton can feel a bit aggrieved: the pit entry lights are in a really weird place in Monza (on the wrong side of the track and way off the driver's eyeline)

Hamilton can feel aggrieved and not have seen the signs, but the teams got the notification about the pit lane the same time as they did about the safety car apparently- they should never have told him to box in the first place.

[Werthead]

9 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

When was the last time none of the three even podiumed?

2012 Hungary. Won by Hamilton for McLaren, Raikkonen and Grosjean second and third for Lotus. Before that was 2012 Canada, where the lineup was McLaren-Lotus-Sauber. But you have to go back a long time before that for another one, 2009 Singapore (McLaren-Toyota-Renault), Malaysia (Brawn-Sauber-Toyota) and Australia (Brawn-Brawn-Toyota). And obviously before that Red Bull weren't quite at their competitive best and in that season Mercedes didn't exist (well, not in F1 for a long, long time).

[williamjm]

13 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

Hamilton can feel aggrieved and not have seen the signs, but the teams got the notification about the pit lane the same time as they did about the safety car apparently- they should never have told him to box in the first place.

It was the same for every team (although admittedly Mercedes had less time to react) and only Alfa Romeo made the same mistake.

It was a great victory for Gasly. Of course he benefited from the Mercedes mistake but even without that he'd likely have finished second which would still have been a great result. Carlos Sainz got a bit unlucky with the timing of the safety car but still had a great day, although he must be a bit nervous about his Ferrari contract for next year.

It's hard to think of a worse race for Ferrari in recent history, just about everything that could go wrong went wrong but the biggest concern is probably even if none of those things had gone wrong they'd probably still have been nowhere in the race. Miserable race for Red Bull as well. It was also a bit bizarre how far Bottas was off the pace, this was his opportunity to take a step back into the title fight but he ended up only making up a handful of places.

[Werthead]

I did spot this during qualifying yesterday and thought F1 might be a bit premature there.

 

[Werthead]

There we go. Perez is out of Racing Point. Vettel expected to be named his replacement in a matter of days. Vettel counting down the days until he can roar past a Ferrari with a raised finger.

Interestingly, this might spark a silly season bidding war down the line. Kimi is reported to be mulling over his options but was volubly telling people in the last couple of weeks that he's not happy trundling around the back for Alfa. Haas are also keen to get rid of at least one and potentially both their drivers. Hulkenberg has been in talks with Haas and Alfa, and now Perez is available as well: good, well-proven mid-field workhorses. There's also interest in Gasly, although none of the other teams can really make Gasly an offer he'd find tempting (Gasly would look at Racing Point, McLaren or Renault, who are now all full, he's not going to be looking at anything further back).

ETA: Ha, someone had an idea of demoting Albon back to AlphaTauri but not promoting Gasly; have them duke it out for a season. Fire Kvyat, he's clearly never going to be good enough to do anything, and have Perez or Hulkenberg in the #2 seat at Red Bull just to see if a proven, experienced driver can fare any better with that insane setup.

[Loge]

The Vettel-Aston Martin deal is official.

When was the last time Red Bull hired a driver from outside? And if they wanted to, why take Perez and not Vettel? Doesn't look like they are going to ditch Albon.  His results are good enough to put Red Bull in second position in the constructors championship. Albon also has Thai citizenship, as have Red Bulls majority owners (Mateschitz runs the show but only owns 49%). If he doesn't improve they'll want a stronger driver in 2022, when they actually might have a shot at the title. They'll probably want to promote a junior driver to Alfa Tauri. Tsunoda could make it, if he ends up high enough in the Formula 2 championship to get a super license. He also has a favourable citizenship. Honda would certainly like to see a Japanese in Formula 1.

Ferrari has three young hopefuls in F2 with Ilott, Schumacher and Shwartzman. They'll want to promote at least one of them. That should fill one of the Alfa Romeo seats. Maybe they can place another driver at Haas. That doesn't leave that many free seats. Doesn't look good for the Hülkenberg. Or Kimi. I guess Perez can get a seat at Haas, but that's not a particularly thrilling prospect. 

 

[Loge]

On 8/30/2020 at 3:19 PM, Winterfell is Burning said:

The Globo network, that shows F1 races in Brazil since 1972, announced they won't renew their contract to next year due to the prices asked by Formula One Management being considered excessive after the pandemic. And considering they are by far the biggest network in the country (they also have the rights to cable and pass it in their sports channel), it's clear there won't be any races on TV anywhere in Brazil either for the first time since 1969 (1970 being the year Emerson Fittipaldi debuted). 

Add that to the fact there was already a real possibility of no Brazilian GP in 2021 even if the pandemic ends,  and without any TV it's extremely unlike most, if any local sponsors will be interested.  And considering there doesn't seem to be any Brazilian pilot with a real possibility of making the grid in the next year or two, let alone being a top competitor, the future for Brazilian automobilism, which has 8 titles (and Massa nearly added to that as recently as 2008) looks very, very bleak.

That's interesting. Formula One will also disappear from free TV in Germany after the 2020 season. There's still cable (Sky), but F1 will probably lose 90% of its audience here. For all his greed, Ecclestone has always refused to make F1 cable only in Germany because he thought losing that much of an audience would outweigh the increase in TV revenue.

[Werthead]

 

Quote

When was the last time Red Bull hired a driver from outside? And if they wanted to, why take Perez and not Vettel? Doesn't look like they are going to ditch Albon.  His results are good enough to put Red Bull in second position in the constructors championship. Albon also has Thai citizenship, as have Red Bulls majority owners (Mateschitz runs the show but only owns 49%). If he doesn't improve they'll want a stronger driver in 2022, when they actually might have a shot at the title. They'll probably want to promote a junior driver to Alfa Tauri. Tsunoda could make it, if he ends up high enough in the Formula 2 championship to get a super license. He also has a favourable citizenship. Honda would certainly like to see a Japanese in Formula 1.

Red Bull's young driver programme is on thin ice at the moment. No drivers with superlicence points to be elevated to F1 (that might change next year) has created a logjam, as otherwise Kvyat would not be in that seat, he's just too poor. Red Bull are also never going to do anything to disrupt Max's position in the team. They know bringing back Vettel would risk doing just that, whilst bringing someone competent-but-not-outstanding like Perez in on a 1 or 2-year contract to keep the seat warm for their young driver programme does make sense (although Perez's temperament is also not great at being a #2 driver, a steadier Hulkenberg makes more sense).

To be clear, I don't think either is remotely likely, it was just an idea someone floated on another website that made for an interesting thought experiment. In reality, they'll most likely keep Albon to the end of the season, assess his performance and make a decision on swapping him for Gasly at the end of the season.

There's a strong possibility that Kimi retires of his own volition, and what happens at Haas remains up in the air. Gunther has already said the options are to keep both drivers (which I can't see happening, as they're both too weak to get the most out of the car), get rid of one of them or get rid of both of them. As far as I can tell what's kept them both in the team is a bit of decision paralysis: Magnussen is the better driver overall but still only medicore, but he's also an arsehole with a poor reputation in the paddock for blocking and fighting too hard for positions he can't maintain; Grosjean is reportedly much better at technical feedback and development, and has been a good drivers' representative (a job he does alongside Vettel). He's also a good driver if he's having a good day, but those days have become few and far between, and on a bad day he's quite reckless and does inexplicably weird things like crashing whilst going slow before a restart lap.

The only reason I can see one or both staying at Haas is if Haas is unable to tempt another driver into the team. Hulkenberg I think would accept an offer, Perez might take it reluctantly. They're both at an awkward stage of being too young to retire of their own volition, too good to say get rid of them, but too old to excite the top teams into taking them, although Wolff has said he once saw Hulkenberg as a replacement for Bottas if Bottas hadn't come back from his diabolical form in 2018.

[williamjm]

6 hours ago, Loge said:

Ferrari has three young hopefuls in F2 with Ilott, Schumacher and Shwartzman. They'll want to promote at least one of them. That should fill one of the Alfa Romeo seats. Maybe they can place another driver at Haas. That doesn't leave that many free seats. Doesn't look good for the Hülkenberg. Or Kimi. I guess Perez can get a seat at Haas, but that's not a particularly thrilling prospect.

Have Williams confirmed their driver line-up for next year yet? I'm sure they'd want to keep George Russel but maybe the second seat could be suitable for a return for Hulkenberg or maybe recruiting Perez?

[Loge]

8 hours ago, williamjm said:

Have Williams confirmed their driver line-up for next year yet? I'm sure they'd want to keep George Russel but maybe the second seat could be suitable for a return for Hulkenberg or maybe recruiting Perez?

Williams have confirmed both drivers for 2021.

[lmanion]

I can see Kimi walking away and Alfa going with a line up of hulk and Schumacher which is the biggest rumour I have seen. Perez and Grosjean at Haas which would be a shame because Perez deserves better than that. Then tsunoda getting kvyats seat at alpha tauri depending on where he ends the season in F2.

[Toth]

Have I mentioned before that I think if Darth Vader drove Formula 1, his car would certainly look exactly like Hamilton's?

[Werthead]

Full-on insane race. Eight retirements (and I'm bemused it wasn't more, Vettel and Grosjean in particular were lucky to be able to continue) and twelve drivers were issued with formal warnings for conduct. However most of the drivers fired back and Bottas and Hamilton, who had sight of the safety car, said the accident was caused by confusion over what the car was doing: they'd been told over the radio the SC was coming in but it had kept its lights on so they assumed it was staying out for another lap (apparently this has happened before, if a marshal tells race control at the last second that they've just spotted some more debris on track and there's no time to tell the drivers, the SC just stays out), then it switched off its lights quite late and came into the lane, so Bottas had to use more of the start/finish straight to warm up his tyres before firing it up. The stewards seemed to think that was BS though.

It wasn't quite a record-setting carnage race though. The record for fewest finishers is 3 (Monaco 1996) and 41 races have had 6 finishers or fewer (only one this century, Australia 2008 though), so this was a long way off that.

Good to see Albon on the podium, but I feel sorry for Ricciardo missing out on 3rd by just a couple of seconds and Bottas losing the win through the restarts. If they hadn't had those, he'd almost certainly have won. If it hadn't been for the second restart, Russell would have scored a point as well.

I'm going to hazard a guess the drivers will be glad not to come back to Murgello next year. Spectacular race, but it felt a bit more dangerous than F1 is used to. Stroll's tyre exploding at over 160mph would have been much worse if it had happened virtually anywhere else on the circuit. You could tell he was quite shaken by that one.