Formula One 2020

[red snow]

16 hours ago, Werthead said:

Ferrari do seem to be heading in the right direction. Raw power is still down, but the aero package on the car has improved markedly and they're heading in the same design direction as Red Bull. If they can get a stronger aero package in place for 2021 they could do reasonably well, but they're unlikely to give Mercedes or Red Bull any headaches.

I think 2021 will be a rinse repeat of this year, hopefully with Red Bull a bit closer, but it should be a lock for Hamilton to get another 7-10 wins (to get to around 100) and an eighth championship next year. 2022 will be the big reset and we'll see what happens then.

Mclaren would have to be sitting on an amazing chassis for them to be up there with mercedes using the same engine. That said I could imagine Ricciardo causing headaches for Bottas next year if the Mclaren is "best of the rest" but probably more likely to be on par with Aston Martin/racing point. I think Hamilton will walk it but the fight for second and possibly the constructors could be much closer. especially with Vettel, Alonso, Le clerc and ricciardo in cars with similar performance.

15 hours ago, williamjm said:

I have liked the new tracks this year. I do agree about the DRS, it's a pity because when drivers didn't breeze past easily there were a few scraps that went on for several corners after the first one which were a lot more fun to watch than an overtake on the straight.

I guess there's no reason why DRS has to be available on long straights? Especially when it detracts from more interesting/challenging overtake maneuvers.

 

I also read that F1 is to introduce a team cap of £30 million (maybe $) for drivers. Which might push Hamilton into signing a 3 year deal pretty sharpish because if he does he's guaranteed to keep whatever they pay him. If he doesn't he'll be bound by those rules next year.

Personally, I think it's a stupid rule. Teams rarely go for two top tier drivers and it simply means that even more drivers with benefits will get to race over genuinely skilled drivers. We could end up losing a lot of world class drivers due to the rule and wind up with more maldonados and Strolls (I'm not saying stroll is bad but there are much better drivers out there)

[Werthead]

18 minutes ago, red snow said:

I guess there's no reason why DRS has to be available on long straights? Especially when it detracts from more interesting/challenging overtake maneuvers.

DRS increases the top speed of the car on straights but is a hindrance in cornering (as it removes drag but also downforce). That limits the effectiveness of the DRS system to straights. The alternative is not to have a DRS zone on a track at all. I don't believe there's a legal requirement to have DRS at every track.

[red snow]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

DRS increases the top speed of the car on straights but is a hindrance in cornering (as it removes drag but also downforce). That limits the effectiveness of the DRS system to straights. The alternative is not to have a DRS zone on a track at all. I don't believe there's a legal requirement to have DRS at every track.

They should definitely drop it on the straight if they revisit Portugal in future.

 

[williamjm]

3 hours ago, red snow said:

They should definitely drop it on the straight if they revisit Portugal in future.

I think they could probably reduce the time it can be used on that straight so it's less powerful. To be fair, it must be difficult to work out how best to set it up on a new track.

[Werthead]

2 hours ago, williamjm said:

I think they could probably reduce the time it can be used on that straight so it's less powerful. To be fair, it must be difficult to work out how best to set it up on a new track.

Yeah, if you look at where they started using DRS on tracks in 2011 (I'm surprised it's been that long, I thought it was a couple of years after that) and how they tweaked them incrementally over the following years, gradually adding new DRS zones and moving the existing ones, you can see they learn by doing.

Since it may be years or never before we got back to Portugal, it's a bit of a moot point now.

[Werthead]

Silly season is starting to get really silly now.

So, Raikkonen and Giovanazzi have been confirmed to stay at Alfa Romeo and Latifi and Russell for Williams, so no change in either case, whilst Gasly has signed for AlphaTauri.

This leaves five seats* officially open but we can dismiss Mercedes straight away, so it's four: the #2 seats at Red Bull and AlphaTauri, and both Haas seats.

There are two veteran F1 candidates in the mix: Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez. There's also two existing Red Bull drivers, Alexander Albon and Daniil Kvyat to consider. There's also two Ferrari juniors in F2 in the hunt - Mick Schumacher and Callum Ilott (Robert Schwartzman is also technically on the radar but considered an outside shot at the moment) - and another F2 driver who's had a reasonable season, Nikita Mazepin, who comes in with substantial financial backing. There's also a Red Bull junior in the hunt, Yuki Tsunoda. Eight into four obviously doesn't go.

The obvious first casualty is Kvyat, whose early solid form at Toro Rosso didn't translate to Red Bull and his performances at Toro Rosso/AlphaTauri since then have been indifferent. Today was literally his best qualifying performance in a full year. He's been completely and totally destroyed by his team-mate Gasly. He's widely considered lucky to have stayed in F1 and only did so because the Red Bull young driver programme hit a roadblock. So Kvyat is gone, possibly bar him winning the race tomorrow (weirder things have happened).

Albon also needs to win the race tomorrow to have a serious chance of keeping his seat, or getting a podium to stay in the conversation. Qualifying sixth, way behind Verstappen, that seems improbable unless the Mercedes take one another out on the first corner or something. So he's likely gone from Red Bull. Normally he'd be a lock for going to AlphaTauri, but that's suddenly a lot less likely than it seemed even a few days ago.

According to Helmut Marko, Tsunoda will get the second seat at AlphaTauri if he gets his superlicence points (which he will if he finishes in the top six in F2, and he's 3rd with two races to go, so that seems probable). So if Albon doesn't keep his Red Bull seat, he may be booted from F1 altogether. Even by Red Bull standards, that's cold. There seems to be some internal debate at Red Bull objecting to this, pointing out that they'd rather keep Tsunoda for a second season in F2 to mature and arguing that Albon was promoted too fast from junior categories, and it's stupid to do the same thing again. In addition, the rush to get Tsunoda into F1 was to make Honda happy, which is no longer an issue. Whoever is pushing that argument (Horner?) they seem to be losing, but it's possible that argument and a strong finish tomorrow could give Albon a reprieve and he might just be dropped to AlphaTauri instead, with Tsunoda to wait another year.

The serious considerations for the #2 seat at Red Bull are Perez and Hulkenberg. There's not much to choose between them - Perez's sponsorship money really isn't an issue for Red Bull - except that they can see what Perez is doing at the moment race to race. That's good on one level, but bad on another: him crashing into Verstappen last week isn't likely to have helped his case. Hulkenberg may be considered to be more measured and calmer; maybe marginally less likely to chase a gap, but also slightly less reckless, whilst generally being as fast. Hulkenberg and Verstappen also have a pretty good relationship off-track and reportedly Verstappen has told Red Bull that, although he doesn't care too much, his preference would be for Hulkenberg. So whilst all the smart money was on Perez, it's possible that Hulkenberg is starting to starting to edge it.

That leaves Haas, who apparently have been told by Ferrari to take whomever wins the F2 championship out of Schumacher and Ilott, and only one of them. The smart money is on Schumacher, who is leading at the moment. Apparently there has been some discussion in favour of Ilott, whose long-term performance over several junior seasons and categories is much stronger, but Ferrari consider the Schumacher name to be too good for PR. Ilott's only in with a shot if he overtakes and beats Schumacher this season. That could be a really awful move for Ilott, who doesn't have the sponsorship money to stay in F2 next season, whilst Schumacher does. If Haas promote Schumacher, Ilott will have to go hunting for another category and might drop out of F1 contention altogether.

The second seat at Haas is likely then a fight between Mazepin and Perez; if Red Bull takes Perez, Haas's financial situation would likely mean that Hulkenberg wouldn't be a contender. Mazepin comes with a shit-ton of money and his father (basically a Russian Lawrence Stroll) might even be interested in buying the team, but there's a slight problem in that Mazepin is a fucking lunatic: he physically attacked Ilott, twice, a couple of years ago after coming off worse in an on-track battle and has been engaged in a nasty hate campaign against George Russell's live-streaming and Twitch activities this year. He's considered a bit of a liability since the stuff he's gotten away with in junior categories would not fly for a second in F1, and Haas have been advised not to take him but he has a ton of money behind him and Haas are in dire straits.

*Technically five but Hamilton signing for Mercedes is a formality. The real question is whether it will be a 1 or 2-year deal, or possibly 3 years to overcome the driver budget cap limitation. 

[lmanion]

That's a pretty good round up. I was quite surprised about Alfa resigning both drivers, I thought Raikkonen and Schumacher would be the line up but oh well. It's a shame for Ilott that he's had some issues this year in F2 that have lined up nicely for Schumacher finding form because I think on outright speed Ilott is probably the faster of the 2. 

I would like to see Albon go back to Alpha Tauri to go head to head with Gasly and red bull put Hulk in with Max next year. I would imagine Perez would then take his $$$ to Haas to partner the winner of Ilott and Schumacher.

Also I really love the tracks we have been thrown this year, mugello, Nurburgring, portimao and Imola are awesome racetracks. There really should be some consideration from the powers that be in F1 for getting some of these tracks back regularly without bankrupting them

[Wilbur]

9 hours ago, lmanion said:

...Also I really love the tracks we have been thrown this year, mugello, Nurburgring, portimao and Imola are awesome racetracks. There really should be some consideration from the powers that be in F1 for getting some of these tracks back regularly without bankrupting them

I agree, the tracks in this year's season have been MILES better than the dross in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, etc.

[williamjm]

16 hours ago, Werthead said:

The obvious first casualty is Kvyat, whose early solid form at Toro Rosso didn't translate to Red Bull and his performances at Toro Rosso/AlphaTauri since then have been indifferent. Today was literally his best qualifying performance in a full year. He's been completely and totally destroyed by his team-mate Gasly. He's widely considered lucky to have stayed in F1 and only did so because the Red Bull young driver programme hit a roadblock. So Kvyat is gone, possibly bar him winning the race tomorrow (weirder things have happened).

Albon also needs to win the race tomorrow to have a serious chance of keeping his seat, or getting a podium to stay in the conversation. Qualifying sixth, way behind Verstappen, that seems improbable unless the Mercedes take one another out on the first corner or something. So he's likely gone from Red Bull. Normally he'd be a lock for going to AlphaTauri, but that's suddenly a lot less likely than it seemed even a few days ago.

If this race was going to be important for their prospects then it's been a disaster for Albon, much slower than his team-mate before spinning on his own. Kvyat had a much better day with a late charge to one of his best finishes, but I suspect not enough to save his F1 career.

Perez certainly didn't do his chances any harm even if his team's pit-stop tactics seemed to deny him a podium opportunity.

It would be a shame if Albon has to drop out of F1, but I think it's difficult to argue that he's a better option for Red Bull than either Perez or Hulkenberg.

[williamjm]

The grid for the Turkish Grand Prix wasn't one I was expecting. It looked like Verstappen was going to dominate throughout the session but in the end couldn't quite match Lance Stroll's time. I feel Verstappen might be favourite for tomorrow unless Mercedes starts working better in the race than it did in qualifying, it's not very often that Hamilton never even looks like challenging for pole.

[Werthead]

That was bonkers. Even without the rain the track looked borderline undrivable. If there's rain again tomorrow (40% chance, apparently), Stroll and Perez might fight for the win, without that the superiority of the Red Bull should tell. And Hamilton has to be capable of getting at least onto the podium unless he just fails to get to grips with the circuit.

[williamjm]

1 minute ago, Werthead said:

That was bonkers. Even without the rain the track looked borderline undrivable.

It was amazing how tentative they were driving round the last couple of corners, even after the worst of the rain has past. It's not often you see a F1 car looking so awkward.

[Werthead]

2 hours ago, williamjm said:

It was amazing how tentative they were driving round the last couple of corners, even after the worst of the rain has past. It's not often you see a F1 car looking so awkward.

It could be a dull race tomorrow, although it should improve as they put rubber down.

[polishgenius]

13 hours ago, Werthead said:

It could be a dull race tomorrow, although it should improve as they put rubber down.

 

I'm glad you got this so badly wrong.



Also I gotta say I've been saying in the past that Hamilton lacks truly insane driving moments compared to Schumi but that part where he got into the lead and then smashed out a twenty second gap in what felt like no time at all was one of the best bits of driving instances I've ever seen. That's an all-time drive, especially considering that the Merc is pretty clearly brutal on its tyres in conditions that aren't ideal.

 

[TheLastWolf]

If only Lewis had won 2016, it would have meant 7 straight titles and ahead of Schumi's 5 straight. But it's not too late even now. Hamilton just has to win next year too to equalize. And it's all too likely. Man, that Briton goes on breaking every record of the German. 

[Werthead]

9 hours ago, TheLastWolf said:

If only Lewis had won 2016, it would have meant 7 straight titles and ahead of Schumi's 5 straight. But it's not too late even now. Hamilton just has to win next year too to equalize. And it's all too likely. Man, that Briton goes on breaking every record of the German. 

He was one iffy pitstop (and one irate team-mate) in 2007 from winning in his debut season as well, and was in the mix in 2010 until the last few races. He may have also been in the mix in 2012 if he hadn't had a shocking run of reliability issues (with five retirements).

[Werthead]

Looking at Hamilton's records, they are quite impressive:

• Most championships: 7 (tied with Michael Schumacher)
• Most wins: 94 (and counting)
• Most wins at the same grand prix: 8 (Hungary, tied with Michael Schumacher in France)
• Most pole positions: 97 (and counting)
• Most pole positions at the same grand prix: 8 (Australia, tied with Ayrton Senna at San Marino and Michael Schumacher at Japan)
• Most podium finishes: 163 (and counting)
• Most podium finishes in a single season: 17 (tied with Schumacher and Vettel)
• Most consecutive starts: 264 (and counting)
• Most races with a single engine manufacturer: 264 (Mercedes)
• Most points: 3,738
• Most races finished in the points: 227
• Most consecutive points finishes: 47 (and counting)
• Most consecutive points scored: 973 (and counting)
• Most points in a season: 413 (he can't increase this in 2020 even if he wins all three remaining races with fastest lap)
• Most consecutive race finishes: 47 (and counting)
• Most races where he led every lap: 22
• Most races where he has led at least one lap: 161
• Longest distance as race leader: 25,597km
• Most pole-win conversions: 57
• Fewest seasons in F1 before becoming champion: 2 (tied with Jacques Villeneuve; Hamilton very nearly beat this in 2007
• Highest rookie championship finishing position: 2 (tied with Jacques Villeneuve)
• Most wins in a rookie season: 4 (tied with Jacques Villeneuve)
• Most different Grand Prix won: 28
• Most wins at different circuits: 29
• Most wins with the same constructor: 73 (Mercedes)
• Most wins at home Grand Prix: 7
• Most consecutive podium finishes starting from debut: 9
• Most pole positions in a debut season: 6
• Most pole positions at most different Grands Prix: 26
• Most poles at different circuits: 28
• Most consecutive seasons with at least one pole: 14

Next year Hamilton should (barring a total Mercedes collapse) tie Schumacher's records for most consecutive seasons with at least one Grand Prix win (15), and I imagine would exceed that if he stays for 2022.

There are also several records that Hamilton cannot win because of the sheer volume of F1 races now compared to the 1950s, such as percentages of wins and pole positions.

Records that Hamilton could still possibly achieve:

• Most consecutive pole positions at the same grand prix: Hamilton is on 6 in Australia, needs 7 to match Senna's record in San Marino
• Most wins in the same season: Hamilton is on 11, behind Sebastian Vettel and Michael Schumacher who are tied on 13.
• Most pole positions in a single season: Hamilton is on 12, behind Senna and Prost on 13, Mansell on 14 and Vettel on 15.
• Total number of fastest laps: Hamilton is on 53, second to Schumacher on 77; this may be a bit more speculative.
• Most fastest laps in a season: Hamilton is on 8, behind Hakkinen on 9 and Raikkonen and Schumacher on 10.
• Most consecutive podium finishes: Hamilton is on 16, behind Schumacher on 19 (his current streak is 6)
• Most consecutive podium finishes in a single season: Hamilton is on 9, tied with Vettel, Rosberg and Alonso; Schumacher is on 17.
• Most races finished: Hamilton is currently on 237, tied with Schumacher and behind Alonso (245) and Raikkonen (257)
• Most laps led in total: Hamilton is on 5,043, second to Schumacher on 5,111
• Most pole-win conversions in a season: Hamilton is on 8, behind Vettel and Mansell tied on 9 (Hamilton is on 7 this year, so can theoretically beat this record if he gets pole and wins in all three remaining races)
• Most hat-tricks (pole-win-fastest lap): Hamilton is on 18, behind Schumacher on 22.
• Most grandslams (pole-win-fastest lap-lead every lap) Hamilton is on 6, behind Jim Clark on 8.
• Most consecutive championships: Hamilton is tied with Vettel and Fangio on 4, and one behind Schumacher on 5. He can equal this next and year and beat it in 2022.

It is interesting, for all the talk of Hamilton's dominance, is that he's still two race wins behind Vettel and Schumacher for the highest number of races won in a single season; and way, way behind on percentages (he's eighth, behind Ascari, Schumacher (twice), Clark (twice), Vettel and Fangio).

Most surprisingly he's never won more than 5 Grands Prix in a row, which is really surprising. Schumacher has him beat twice (6 wins in 2000 and 2001, and 7 in 2004), Ascari has won 7 in a row (in 1952-53) and Vettel has won 9 in a row (in 2013). More startlingly, Rosberg won 7 races in a row in 2015-16.

[williamjm]

On 11/15/2020 at 12:11 PM, polishgenius said:

I'm glad you got this so badly wrong.

Also I gotta say I've been saying in the past that Hamilton lacks truly insane driving moments compared to Schumi but that part where he got into the lead and then smashed out a twenty second gap in what felt like no time at all was one of the best bits of driving instances I've ever seen. That's an all-time drive, especially considering that the Merc is pretty clearly brutal on its tyres in conditions that aren't ideal.

It was an appropriate way for Hamilton to win the championship, it would have been a bit underwhelming if he'd done it by finishing 5th. A bit like Schumacher you can never really count him out no matter what position he is in (as long as the car is still running).

Behind him some drivers had really good days and some had awful days. I don't know whether Bottas had anything wrong with the car but if not that's perhaps his worst performance. Verstappen looked like a possible favourite to win at one point but had an uncharacteristically scruffy drive. Stroll definitely had a race of two halves, serene until the pitstop but he went backwards quickly after that. Albon didn't do too badly but probably needed to do better given that this was the perfect opportunity to grab a podium. On the other hand, Perez must have done himself plenty of favours with a strong second place even if he only just held on at the end. It would be a bit of a travesty if he didn't have a drive next year.

[polishgenius]

1 hour ago, williamjm said:

I don't know whether Bottas had anything wrong with the car

There were reports that his steering broke, which is why he couldn't correct spins before they happened. All things considered not implausible. Similarly Racing Point claim Stroll's undercarriage was damaged and the resulting downforce issues were what led to the graining that killed his fresh tyres so fast.

Perez's tyre management is incredibly good, it feels like nearly all his podium finishes happen because he managed to race competitively to the end on tyres that should have expired with half an hour to go.

[Werthead]

3 hours ago, williamjm said:

Behind him some drivers had really good days and some had awful days. I don't know whether Bottas had anything wrong with the car but if not that's perhaps his worst performance. Verstappen looked like a possible favourite to win at one point but had an uncharacteristically scruffy drive. Stroll definitely had a race of two halves, serene until the pitstop but he went backwards quickly after that. Albon didn't do too badly but probably needed to do better given that this was the perfect opportunity to grab a podium. On the other hand, Perez must have done himself plenty of favours with a strong second place even if he only just held on at the end. It would be a bit of a travesty if he didn't have a drive next year.

Verstappen's biggest weakness is the frustration that gets the better of him and makes him make idiotic mistakes, and it's even worse when he doesn't understand what's going on. When he knows why the car is underperforming he's capable of saying fair enough and driving with composure to the best result possible, but in this race he just couldn't get a grip on the car and made errors much more characteristic of his early years.

It's hard to know what's going on in the driver's market. Perez at one point was the most feted man on the grid but the excitement seemed to cool abruptly over the start of the autumn. There were rumours that Red Bull had a big split on what to do, with disagreements between Horner and Marko on promoting Tsunoda or leaving him in F2 for another year (amidst the argument they may have promoted Albon and Gasly too soon to F1, let alone to Red Bull), which in turn impacts on keeping Albon in the big team or dropping him to AlphaTauri or just ejecting him from F1 altogether and bringing in Perez (Verstappen has apparently said he prefers Hulkenberg, but Perez has far more data from this season to make a decision about).

It feels like Albon has underperformed but he's not that bad a driver and he might benefit like Gasly from going back to AlphaTauri. But if the calculation is that Gasly's not going to be re-promoted to Red Bull, then neither will Albon (given he's been given much more of a chance to shine), so what's the point in keeping him around?