Jump to content

UK Politics: Drawing Priti Patterns


mormont

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

"I see your horse has bolted - now, let's see what we can do about this door"

Meh. As it stands there's clearly a limited capacity for testing. Once it's gone beyond the stage of being contained there's obviously going to have to be choices made about how to prioritise the use of that capacity. People who are isolating themselves at home aren't the priority. Knowing whether or not they've actually had the virus is useful information though and if you could test them at a stage when they aren't a risk to infect other people that's even better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Telling people to avoid pubs and theatres but not officially telling pubs and theatres to close is a bit shit, because if they now choose to close they won’t be able to claim on their insurance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

Telling people to avoid pubs and theatres but not officially telling pubs and theatres to close is a bit shit, because if they now choose to close they won’t be able to claim on their insurance. 

Which is obviously why they said it that way.

Shocking statement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It does seem that despite all their talk the Government seem to be ending up taking many of the same measure as European countries, they're just procrastinating about them for a few days first. They're still holding firm on the schools staying open but at the rate they're changing their positions I'm not sure that policy will make it to the weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, williamjm said:

It does seem that despite all their talk the Government seem to be ending up taking many of the same measure as European countries, they're just procrastinating about them for a few days first. They're still holding firm on the schools staying open but at the rate they're changing their positions I'm not sure that policy will make it to the weekend.

And a 24 hour delay leads to a 40% higher level of infection / hospitalisation / death (IIRC)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, williamjm said:

It does seem that despite all their talk the Government seem to be ending up taking many of the same measure as European countries, they're just procrastinating about them for a few days first. They're still holding firm on the schools staying open but at the rate they're changing their positions I'm not sure that policy will make it to the weekend.

... which is exactly what I expected to happen, actually...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/pm-tells-britons-to-avoid-non-essential-contact-with-others is explaining why the government has switched strategy:

Quote

 

If the government had stuck to the plans announced last week, Covid-19 could have cost 260,000 lives, according to teams of modellers from Imperial College who have run computer predictions of the impact of different interventions. The government’s strategy is based on their work and similar modelling from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial and colleagues call that scenario 1, the mitigation strategy. It was not until they received new and sobering data from Italy, where the health service is struggling to save lives, that they understood the potential death toll and the horrendous impact on the NHS of that strategy, which allowed people to mix as usual. In Italy, 30% of patients with the virus have needed intensive care. The NHS would not have been able to cope.

Instead of letting social contact at pubs, clubs, restaurants and the theatre continue, and people to travel and go to work, they modelled scenario 2, which they call suppression. Under that strategy, the number of deaths would be driven down to 20,000 or lower – possibly even a few thousand. But the social restrictions the government has now announced will have to stay in place for at least five months and maybe longer.

 

While I'm not looking forward to month after month of restrictions if making this a marathon rather than a sprint saves quarter of a million lives then we don't really have an alternative.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m still fairly agnostic about Boris’s handling of it, but a lot of people are reaching for the worst possible interpretation of this. It’s not really a U turn, they said they’d wait until implementing the tough measures, they waited, now they have. And I don’t believe that at yesterday’s Cobra meeting they suddenly said “oh shit, we’re still looking at viral pneumonia!” This will have been a constantly changing model, based on VP when they started and know nothing, and gradually changing based on the data. This has just moved the timetable up a bit.

Again, I’m open to the idea they did get it wrong and change tact, but I don’t think these actions are evidence of that necessarily.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Werthead said:

Yup, the government has seen sanity, although they still need to go further. But this is a reasonable start.

Just a pity that it's a week too late; and may well put us in the "worst of both worlds" for the modelling.

Not that we have any way of knowing, given the absence of testing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...