UK Politics: Drawing Priti Patterns

[Heartofice]

I think that Telegraph article by Matt Hancock is an example of where the gov is doing a quite poor job reassuring the public and communicating what it is doing and what it plans on doing.

To have plans to quarantine over 70s be revealed online by Robert Peston and then later on in an article by Hancock behind a paywall is pretty shocking actually. 

There is talk that they should be doing daily briefings. I think that sounds like a good idea. Obviously there is a need to squash public panic but I don't think that's working because the internet is a powerful beast.

 

[Werthead]

This commentary by an epideiologist is interesting, and identifies why the UK approach is flawed. The herd immunity idea is fine, but expected to take care of itself. The additional measures carried out in other countries are necessary to protect the at-risk groups.

Particularly interesting is noting how Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and even South Korea have gotten a handle on the situation and South Korea has already moved into a recovery mode despite the heavy outbreak there. Singapore and Hong Kong are small and easier to manage, but Taiwan and South Korea are more comparable as geographically limited countries with large populations with comparable (or better) health care where they managed to get a handle on the disease despite heavy outbreaks or outbreaks in neighbouring countries. Those are the responses we should be emulating.

Agreed on the biggest problem being whether to shut primary schools or not. Children are mostly unaffected, but can carry the virus keeping them open may spread the diseases. On the other hand, shutting them is difficult as it would pull parents in essential jobs out of the workforce when they are badly needed, and for obvious reasons the old stand-bys of getting someone to look after several children at once or calling in grandparents to help may be ill-advised.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Will be interesting to see how long they propose to self-isolate thr over 70’s. My father-in-law is 70, and he and my m-i-l always spend 4-6 weeks in Israel every summer, so that may be up in the air.

My wife’s a nurse and i’m police staff, so from the work point of view we’re pretty secure. Must be horrible for all those not only facing uncertainty over their health and the availability of food etc, but if they’ll continue to have jobs paying them to buy it.

[ljkeane]

3 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Will be interesting to see how long they propose to self-isolate thr over 70’s. My father-in-law is 70, and he and my m-i-l always spend 4-6 weeks in Israel every summer, so that may be up in the air.

Israel's already requiring everyone coming into the country to self quarantine for two weeks anyway. So I'd suggest it's probably not on the cards this year.

[Which Tyler]

 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

next weekend its mothers day,  one of the busiest days of the year for restaurants when a lot of places cram extra tables in while people take their elderly mothers out.    this is a recipe for a big spike in infections after.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

next weekend its mothers day,  one of the busiest days of the year for restaurants when a lot of places cram extra tables in while people take their elderly mothers out.    this is a recipe for a big spike in infections after.

Restaurants might very well get shut down by then. Take a look at Austira, Italy, and Madrid.

I think the UK (or at the very least London) might take a similar path. Quesitons is just whether it is before mother's day. But that's basically the rock and the hard place for politiicans atm.

If they effectively shut down public events, and then restaurants, they are not just increasing anxiety among the population, but it's also a tough blow for the businesses involved. Which restaurant can afford to close down for likesay 3-4 weeks without generating any income, while they still have to pay their rent and untility bills. The central banks can do very little about that. Interest rates are effectively zero, but they can't generate extra demand.

[DaveSumm]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

This commentary by an epideiologist is interesting, and identifies why the UK approach is flawed. The herd immunity idea is fine, but expected to take care of itself. The additional measures carried out in other countries are necessary to protect the at-risk groups.

Particularly interesting is noting how Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and even South Korea have gotten a handle on the situation and South Korea has already moved into a recovery mode despite the heavy outbreak there. Singapore and Hong Kong are small and easier to manage, but Taiwan and South Korea are more comparable as geographically limited countries with large populations with comparable (or better) health care where they managed to get a handle on the disease despite heavy outbreaks or outbreaks in neighbouring countries. Those are the responses we should be emulating.

Agreed on the biggest problem being whether to shut primary schools or not. Children are mostly unaffected, but can carry the virus keeping them open may spread the diseases. On the other hand, shutting them is difficult as it would pull parents in essential jobs out of the workforce when they are badly needed, and for obvious reasons the old stand-bys of getting someone to look after several children at once or calling in grandparents to help may be ill-advised.

I’m still not sure I understand what happens when these countries we’re supposed to be emulating lift the restrictions. He mentions a second wave next winter, but there’s nothing guaranteeing a seasonal pattern to Covid19, so I don’t see why this second wave wouldn’t come immediately. I’m not sure what the long-term strategy is for these countries, beyond waiting on some good news about seasonality / anti-virals. And if it really came to asking the British public to properly lock down throughout the summer, I think they may have a point that there is a limit to how much they would comply. We aren’t like these other countries. I think there’s still a small window where we could lock down maybe this week, and have a moderate wave of infections. But if we completely eliminated cases, and then opened up again, then locked down again, then again, people would just stop paying attention to them.

[Heartofice]

Isnt the point also that we really don’t want a second wave to hit the UK during the winter flu season?

[Chaircat Meow]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

This commentary by an epideiologist is interesting, and identifies why the UK approach is flawed. The herd immunity idea is fine, but expected to take care of itself. The additional measures carried out in other countries are necessary to protect the at-risk groups.

Particularly interesting is noting how Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and even South Korea have gotten a handle on the situation and South Korea has already moved into a recovery mode despite the heavy outbreak there. Singapore and Hong Kong are small and easier to manage, but Taiwan and South Korea are more comparable as geographically limited countries with large populations with comparable (or better) health care where they managed to get a handle on the disease despite heavy outbreaks or outbreaks in neighbouring countries. Those are the responses we should be emulating.

Agreed on the biggest problem being whether to shut primary schools or not. Children are mostly unaffected, but can carry the virus keeping them open may spread the diseases. On the other hand, shutting them is difficult as it would pull parents in essential jobs out of the workforce when they are badly needed, and for obvious reasons the old stand-bys of getting someone to look after several children at once or calling in grandparents to help may be ill-advised.

I don't think the article is great.

Herd immunity would take care of itself but some countries are pursuing a strategy designed to ensure it doesn't happen, i.e. China. The UK idea is to not do that.

As for the at-risk groups it looks like there is a plan for this; the at-risk groups are going to be told to self-isolate for months while the disease is allowed to hit the young and the healthy middle-aged in a managed way. 

I'm totally OK with the idea we've chosen poorly and other countries will turn out to have a better response but some of the current critique seems kneejerk and unfair. 

[DaveSumm]

Really, it’s a gamble. If some anti-viral medication turned out to deal with the critical phase where the immune system over reacts, in theory the death rate would plummet. If Britain goes with its current plan and then that medication shows up, and our death toll is way higher than other nations, it’d be a straight resign for Boris I think.

[BigFatCoward]

Nearly 400 deaths in Italy alone today. 

[Chaircat Meow]

The government is still refusing to countenance a delay to Brexit. Surely this can't last. I don't even think we'll be able to meet to conduct the negotiations. We don't want any disruption at all at the end of 2020 because this is when the dreaded second peak is supposed to be coming at us. 

Brexit is a faith-based business though; the government is capable of rational thought when it comes to the Coronavirus but sweet reason has to be dragged kicking and screaming out of hiding when it comes to Europe. 

[Werthead]

Quote

 

As for the at-risk groups it looks like there is a plan for this; the at-risk groups are going to be told to self-isolate for months while the disease is allowed to hit the young and the healthy middle-aged in a managed way. 

 

 There is a plan, but this plan, like most of Boris's, is not even tenuously connected to reality. Letting the virus spread at will through the general population will ensure the at-risk groups are absolutely hit no matter what precautions are taken. There is no way to "manage" it, and it is preposterous to think it is possible to do so.

We either adopt stricter and more stringent measures for the entire country like Taiwan and South Korea, or we agree to say fuck it and let it go wild and see what happens (and what happens is we get Italy and increasingly Spain).

I'm also baffled as to this idea that we cannot try these measures because there will be widespread disobedience because of the implication that we're independently-minded, frontier-spirited freedom loving white folk who will ignore common sense even if it kills a lot of people, unlike the Asian drones who do as they are programmed (which, amongst other things, demonstrates some ignorance towards both how independent and democratic Taiwan and South Korea operate). As people like to point out every five seconds, we put up with much worse during the Blitz and they didn't even have Netflix to keep them occupied.

Quote

 

I'm totally OK with the idea we've chosen poorly and other countries will turn out to have a better response but some of the current critique seems kneejerk and unfair. 

 

I'm glad you're okay with it. There will be thousands and tens of thousands of people who are very much not going to be okay with it, because they will be dead.

1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

The government is still refusing to countenance a delay to Brexit. Surely this can't last. I don't even think we'll be able to meet to conduct the negotiations. We don't want any disruption at all at the end of 2020 because this is when the dreaded second peak is supposed to be coming at us. 

Brexit is a faith-based business though; the government is capable of rational thought when it comes to the Coronavirus but sweet reason has to be dragged kicking and screaming out of hiding when it comes to Europe. 

I think if the situation escalates then it will be hard to avoid at least a 6-12 month moratorium. Neither the UK nor the EU will have the bandwidth to deal with it on top of everything else.

[ljkeane]

9 minutes ago, Werthead said:

 There is a plan, but this plan, like most of Boris's, is not even tenuously connected to reality. Letting the virus spread at will through the general population will ensure the at-risk groups are absolutely hit no matter what precautions are taken. There is no way to "manage" it, and it is preposterous to think it is possible to do so.

We either adopt stricter and more stringent measures for the entire country like Taiwan and South Korea, or we agree to say fuck it and let it go wild and see what happens (and what happens is we get Italy and increasingly Spain).

Come on. I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan by any means but it's pretty clear this is being driven by the government's public health officials and science advisors. They may well turn out to be wrong, there's obviously a lot of guess work involved, but they're, more than likely, far more qualified to have an opinion on the subject than you, me or anyone else on the board.

 

[DaveSumm]

18 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I'm glad you're okay with it. There will be thousands and tens of thousands of people who are very much not going to be okay with it, because they will be dead.

I assume the poster meant that they’re open to the concept that Boris is wrong, not that they’re totally OK with the deaths.

[Ser Reptitious]

Honest question from an outsider: could it also be that the current UK government simply feels instinctively inclined to do the opposite of what EU countries are doing?

[Heartofice]

42 minutes ago, Ser Reptitious said:

Honest question from an outsider: could it also be that the current UK government simply feels instinctively inclined to do the opposite of what EU countries are doing?

Nope. 
 

... a little less flippantly. These are not party political decisions that are being made, Boris is taking advice from UK experts and following their lead.

On that, I find any attempt to score partisan political points at this time pretty low, as I’ve seen elsewhere 

[HexMachina]

6 hours ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

next weekend its mothers day,  one of the busiest days of the year for restaurants when a lot of places cram extra tables in while people take their elderly mothers out.    this is a recipe for a big spike in infections after.

I think a lot will have cancelled or not show of their own accord actually. 

We have stocked my grandmother up as best as we can and have agreed we will drop any groceries and other bits she needs outside for her and she can use her walking frame to come out and get them. I'm most worried about loneliness though. Her husband, my granddad, died 5 years ago and she took it hard. She gradually got to a place where she accepted it, and she did have carers coming in to take care of her needs four times a day. That has now stopped as of tomorrow (not corona related, just coincidentally she had her review and was judged to no longer need them). I'm just worried how she will fare mentally without one of us there every day if she has to isolate. I will ring her every day of course but I still worry

[DaveSumm]

51 minutes ago, Ser Reptitious said:

Honest question from an outsider: could it also be that the current UK government simply feels instinctively inclined to do the opposite of what EU countries are doing?

I know a lot of people disagree with Boris’s strategy, but I think with something of this magnitude you can only have one goal: kill as few as your population as possible. No other metric will matter when this is finished, everyone will know precisely what proportion of the population was lost to this virus, and how well we did ranked against every other nation. The economy could be completely in the toilet but if you saved a noticeable chunk of lives, that’s the kind of thing that could put a Prime Minister in the history books. I can totally accept he might be wrong, but I really can’t buy into any grander reasoning like he’s spiting the EU / he wants to save his friends some cash / he wants to save money buy killing off people who claim a pension. I’m hoping his reputation means more to him than that.