Covid Your Mouth When You Sneeze (Corona Virus/Covid-19 # 2)

[Fragile Bird]

5 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

That's basically this one: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
 

AGE	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old	21.9%	14.8%
70-79 years old		8.0%
60-69 years old		3.6%
50-59 years old		1.3%
40-49 years old		0.4%
30-39 years old		0.2%
20-29 years old		0.2%
10-19 years old		0.2%
0-9 years old		no fatalities

 

Ah, thanks for that!

You can extropolate that the death rate creeps up the older you get. I'm probably at the 4.5/5% range.

eta:  shit, 22% above 80 is a heck of a lot scarier than the scary 15%.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It could be, but remember this is a new virus, and there is a long period after you contract the virus where you aren't even infectious yet.  That slows the spread a good bit. 

Sure, but just look at the XFL concessions worker. How many people did he/she serve? How many fellow servers did they interact with, who then went on to serve people. That’s why I was saying yesterday that the service industry is how this could really spread quickly, though it will take some time to know the exact damage, and that’s assuming the government gets its act together.

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sure, but just look at the XFL concessions worker. How many people did he/she serve? How many fellow servers did they interact with, who then went on to serve people. That’s why I was saying yesterday that the service industry is how this could really spread quickly, though it will take some time to know the exact damage, and that’s assuming the government gets its act together.

The major clusters in Korea related to a religious cult that had big community meetings, presumably at Christmas, because they are Christians, and they ate meals together. I heard that authorities thought it spread so fast because of the group meals.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The major clusters in Korea related to a religious cult that had big community meetings, presumably at Christmas, because they are Christians, and they ate meals together. I heard that authorities thought it spread so fast because of the group meals.

Exactly, but that’s on a small scale. Think about large sporting venues. The food can get contaminated quickly, and even if you don’t eat it, in a big moment you might spontaneously high five a bunch of strangers.

And the biggest tournament in the country, which spans across the entire nation, starts in two weeks.

[IheartIheartTesla]

nvm, made a math error

[Fragile Bird]

An older friend of mine sent me an e-mail to remind me of a story he told a long time ago. He and his family lived through the brutal flu season of 1957. Everyone was terribly sick. A neighbor brought over a pot of stew, but they were so sick they couldn't cook and all his dad could do was open a can of peas each day and add it to the stew. A bit of stew was all they ate each day, and at the end of the week it was pretty grim.

His advice - make sure you have a fever thermometer and stock some canned and frozen goods!

[Kalbear]

Finally, ECCC has been postponed. Fucking hell, it took them long enough. Try and find small vendors who were going and buy their merch online!

[Frey family reunion]

Does it seem odd that there are no fatalities among children?

[HexMachina]

Our firm continuing to be proactive/cautious - next week will see a test of our remote working systems by having the entire office work from home. This will be spread over a couple of days so that one day is office A, the next office B. It feels pretty sensible without being overly dramatic to me. 

 

Ventured to the supermarket after work too and it was pretty barren. The same was true in the smaller shops I tried on the way home to get what I couldn't in the big store

[Kalbear]

48 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Does it seem odd that there are no fatalities among children?

There are some, but none for younger kids. And not really given how it infects. We will likely get one soon though. Especially given how blase people are in the US. 

[Zorral]

SXS canceled.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/media/sxsw-preparation-coronavirus/index.html

[Werthead]

10 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

I would just like to remind everybody that over half the infected people have already recovered. 
So while it is important to take steps to contain the virus, recovery should be a  part of the discussion that is now centered around death. I know that’s scary and serious and nobody wants this epidemic to be fatal for x% of the elderly people contracting it.
But there is recovery and that seems to be completely lost among the news of death and rising cases and economic disaster and crippled health systems and panic shopping and all. 

Well, that's not the end of the matter. There are reports (though only a few) that people have been re-infected after recovering from the virus, suggesting that one exposure to the illness is not enough to confer any kind of immunity.

[Zorral]

Here we are in an information rich society and we just don't know!  We don't know Enough! 

And this thing about which we don't know and don't know enough is affecting every aspect of our lives right now and Nobody Knows either for how long this will be the case and how very severe it will be for us as individuals, as a community, a nation, the world.

And this puts us all in a state of extreme anxiety.  Well, at least it has me extremely anxious, which I'm trying to combat in every way available to me, which included laying in supplies of flu and cold remedies such as aspirin and tissues. (Today I discovered among the clutter of the throw it in there ,because I don't know what else to do with it, an unopened package of the recommended gloves to wear in public spaces, etc. and another package of face masks -- though not effective sorts, just for opening long sealed boxes of books and sweeping up plaster after a repair).

Drinking to excess is a means available, of course, but I'm not going there -- same frequent convivial intake with dinner and friends, or a really good program to watch before bed. 

Still seeing friends and going out to hear music -- but not going to movie theaters.

We don't know though, for how long the university will continue to hold classes.  There's been no discussion so far about shutting down the school, which they've done only for some weeks in the wake of 9/11.

Believe me I know in how much better of a place I am positioned than so many, particularly when it comes to work and finances (though it is impacting the latter already, but still, I will keep a roof and meals).

[Castellan]

On 3/6/2020 at 9:13 AM, Castellan said:

Whenever I see those headlines I am disappointed by the story/video. One billed as a fight was just footage of a large man getting a lot of toilet paper in his trolley. Apparently someone elsewhere was tasered by police but that was because he found empty shelves and was abusive to staff and threw boxes of tissues at them. I don't know why he didn't buy the tissues.

It seems to have become real now! Videos of women pushing each other and yelling which I will not attach. 

My husband predicts a channel devoted to 'Australian toilet paper wars' will pop up soon.

It seems to be that if there is none left on the shelves and a woman sees somebody's trolley has what they perceive as 'more than their share' they just try to take it.

I don't know if there is any real element to toilet paper shortages or if its all panic induced. I thought toilet paper was one thing we do make in Australia.

 

[Jeor]

58 minutes ago, Castellan said:

I don't know if there is any real element to toilet paper shortages or if its all panic induced. I thought toilet paper was one thing we do make in Australia.

I heard a stat that 80% of toilet paper is actually produced in Australia. As a pseudo-prepper myself who has more than ample supplies of everything (I have an overwhelming urge to bulk buy whenever stuff is on special) this mass panic is actually not all that surprising.

These days with the information overload, anxiety is higher, or much more visible, or both - so mass panics are bound to be worse. Toilet paper is funny and a mild inconvenience, but if there were actual things like runs on the bank, bottled water, fuel or food shortages, then we're really going to be in for it. We haven't yet seen a run on a bank, and there isn't a direct effect on the financial system (mostly indirect based on uncertainty), but I wonder if at some point this is going to transition into a financial crisis as well as a health one.

[BigFatCoward]

There was not a single empty shelf in the supermarket just now. And checking peoples baskets/trolleys there was no mass buying of particular items. Maybe the tories are secretly looking after their heartlands or something. 

[DaveSumm]

3 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

There was not a single empty shelf in the supermarket just now. And checking peoples baskets/trolleys there was no mass buying of particular items. Maybe the tories are secretly looking after their heartlands or something. 

I went yesterday (UK as well) and they had no toilet paper or pasta of any kind, and obviously no hand sanitiser and no anti-bacterial hand wash. I think this will fizzle out a little over the course of the coming week (I mean the panic buying, not the virus) when people realise that the supermarkets can restock pretty swiftly. I still don’t get the toilet paper thing though.

This guy I found quite reassuring:

Basically, this is a winnable war, some people would have you believe we’re all fucked so why bother, but there are clearly nations that are having more success than others. We should be emulating them. I do worry a bit about the lag built in to all this, if it’s takes a week or two to show symptoms, than say a day to get tested, and maybe 48h to show up in the stats, that means we could be 17 days behind with our actions. And how much of a shit did everyone give 17 days ago? It was pretty much business as usual, at least here in the UK.

[Jeor]

56 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

Basically, this is a winnable war, some people would have you believe we’re all fucked so why bother, but there are clearly nations that are having more success than others. We should be emulating them.

I think one of the things that Western governments are grappling with is that it's now becoming clearer that, for all the criticisms that have been levelled at it, China looks like it's getting things under control. They bought the rest of the world a few weeks' grace by taking such draconian action, but it's also helped themselves as it looks like they're now back in the driver's seat. Following that blueprint is tough for liberal democracies. 

There's also a lot of delay built into the system. The Atlantic (limited clicks) is reporting that only 1895 people have been tested in the USA so far. That's pretty mind-boggling considering a nation like South Korea has, according to Bloomberg news, apparently tested (limited clicks) 140,000 people already. Pretty big misstep by the American health system and it means it's only going to get worse.

[Derfel Cadarn]

My local supermarket is short (but not empty) of soap, pasta and toilet roll. Not helped by the supernarket putting all that stuff on special offer!

[Isis]

13 hours ago, Werthead said:

Well, that's not the end of the matter. There are reports (though only a few) that people have been re-infected after recovering from the virus, suggesting that one exposure to the illness is not enough to confer any kind of immunity.

Haven't seen any mention of that and it seems very unlikely. 

What I am most curious about right now is how many asymptomatic/sub-clinical cases there have been. Obviously we'll have to wait for that data. But I'd love to do a big serological study in 6-12 months from now, see how many people were exposed but never showed any symptoms.