Covid Your Mouth When You Sneeze (Corona Virus/Covid-19 # 2)

[Platypus Rex]

1 hour ago, Toth said:

That was not my intention, certainly Italy is the main transmitter, but you could do this number-crunching game the other way as well. If we replace "Confirmed Infections" with "Confirmed Deaths" the US suddenly appears on place 6.

You make a good point, I think, when you say that death totals might be a more meaningful indication of spread than case totals.  Though of course, death totals can also be under-reported.

I think, though, that you have ignored my point about taking into account the population of the nation in question, when considering the extent that the virus has spread within that population.  If you were to compare "confirmed deaths" to population size, the US would come in lower than #6.

I'm not sure (for instance) it is fair to compare 21 deaths in the entire United States, to the 19 deaths in France and 17 deaths in Spain. 

[Datepalm]

Who knows, but West Africa probably isn't messing around either - my colleague for a Liberia trip just bailed because she's coming from the US and its an automatic quarantine for anyone arriving from countries with 200+ cases. Have anecdotally heard that Ebola protocols are dusted off and running - airport temperature tests, government quarantines.

[Kalbear]

The US is doing an incredibly shitty job, and the numbers are almost certainly absurdly underreported. Mostly due to Trump wanting the numbers to be underreported.

In other news (though related), this woman couldn't get tested despite a) being at the actual site of the major outbreak, b) having symptoms, and c) GOING TO MY SONS' GYMNASTICS MEET THE PREVIOUS DAY.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/press-3-for-coronavirus-even-a-woman-at-outbreaks-epicenter-cant-cut-through-bureaucracy-to-get-tested/

So yeah, that is the criteria on our testing. 

[maarsen]

There are other issues that pee rex doesn't deal with. We have now had two cases in Ontario that came from people who had only travelled to the US. One in Las Vegas and one just today coming back from Colorado. The US has unreported centres of infection and no plan about how to deal with it. 

[Consigliere]

We've got three confirmed cases in South Africa - two in Kwazulu-Natal and one in Gauteng. All three were part of a group of ten people who had travelled to Italy. The remaining members of the travel party remain in isolation while awaiting test results. The first person is now asymptomatic. His wife is the third case but their kids have tested negative however the family will remain under self quarantine until the parents test negative after which the children will be tested again.

[Ran]

Been pointed to this article that debunks some of the crazier China stuff we've seen, from a WHO doctor who's been to China and seen the test centers and hospitals for himself. Behind a paywall, being NYT, but still, if you can read it, I'd recommend it. Dispells some notions I had seen, like there being masses of super-mild cases that weren't being detected, and explains the high CFR in the Wuhan province as being due to how flat-footed they were caught and the length of time it took from infection to hospitalization (at the start of the outbreak, people were ill for as much as two weeks before being hospitalized or quarantined, which explains why it spread so wildly to start with; by now, they have it down to two days, greatly reducing the risk of spread and exposure to the vulnerable).

[Platypus Rex]

2 hours ago, Ran said:

That's exactly what I said. Our first apparent infection brought from the US rather than from Italy or Iran. Others understood this.

That's fine.  I assume you have no objection to my clarification, just in case different others did not understand it.

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The issue is not making the US a scapegoat, except in the sense that the US has widespread community spread because of its failures and is now causing infections in other countries (Canada, as well, has suffered from this), whereas Sweden has been able to trace (nearly) everything to people who have been to or in contact with those who have been to Italy or Iran and so far as I know no one outside of Sweden has been infected by someone bringing it from Sweden as of yet. Fingers crossed that this remains the case. 

It is not clear to me that Sweden claims to have traced all of its local infections only to Iran and Italy (and now 1 from the USA).  But I bow to your superior knowledge of local Swedish news sources.

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The reason information is being shared as to source of infections coming into countries is to better be able to manage the spread of the contagion. It is proper and transparent to say that China, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and the US are among countries that are spreading or have spread the illness to other countries. Doubtless there are others now, but those are the sources that are most well-known at this time, I think.

Well, okay, but you left out:

4 from Egypt (3 to USA; 1 to Canada).

3 from France (1 to Argentina; 1 to Cameroon; 1 to Denmark).

3 from Israel (all to Greece).

3 from Germany (1 to Poland, 1 to Egypt, 1 to Hungary).

2 from Japan (both to Philippines).

2 from Spain (1 to Portugal; 1 to Algeria).

2 from Switzerland (1 to Leichtenstein; 1 to Russia).

2 from UK (1 to USA; 1 to Vietnam)

1 from Austria (to Slovenia).

1 from Iraq (to Saudi Arabia).

1 from Taiwan (to Philippines).

1 from Oman (to India).

Which is of course an incomplete list, since many cases are ascribed to foreign travel without specifying the source country.

If you consider the relative size of the USA and its population, to many of the countries listed above, I don't think it is fair, in light of the above list, to count 2 cases ascribed to foreign travel from the USA as an indication that the USA is a particularly virulent source of infection.  But who knows?  More data comes in by the minute.

[Filippa Eilhart]

Poland has 8 cases, 1 got infected by a visitor from the US. 

eta: also over a 1000 negative tests

[Platypus Rex]

33 minutes ago, Ran said:

Been pointed to this article that debunks some of the crazier China stuff we've seen, from a WHO doctor who's been to China and seen the test centers and hospitals for himself. Behind a paywall, being NYT, but still, if you can read it, I'd recommend it. Dispells some notions I had seen, like there being masses of super-mild cases that weren't being detected, and explains the high CFR in the Wuhan province as being due to how flat-footed they were caught and the length of time it took from infection to hospitalization (at the start of the outbreak, people were ill for as much as two weeks before being hospitalized or quarantined, which explains why it spread so wildly to start with; by now, they have it down to two days, greatly reducing the risk of spread and exposure to the vulnerable).

The W.H.O. has been rather blatantly kissing China's ass throughout this entire outbreak.  Dr. Bruce Aylward (the WHO doctor you refer to above) is a particularly eager ass-kisser. 

The W.H.O. is the same organization that recommended against any travel restrictions whatsoever, because they were so eager to parrot the position of President Xi and the Chinese Communist party.  Thankfully for the world, leaders of foreign countries (the semi-sane ones) just rolled their eyes and instituted travel restrictions anyhow, to protect their people.  Which has no doubt had some effect (however temporary) in slowing the inevitable spread of the virus, and allowing nations time to get in gear.

The WHO also refuses to list Taiwan as a "country" on their official website.  No doubt to appease China.

[Werthead]

21 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

 The WHO also refuses to list Taiwan as a "country" on their official website.  No doubt to appease China.

They're not exactly alone in that. Only 15 countries and a small number of international organisations recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country, ~190 countries do not, including the United States. In fact the United States (along with the rest of the UN) withdrew its recognition of Taiwan in 1971 specifically to "appease China."

[Ran]

You can't be taken seriously, so I will ignore your yammering about someone who has worked for decades for the betterment of humanity.

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The W.H.O. is the same organization that recommended against any travel restrictions whatsoever, because they were so eager to parrot the position of President Xi and the Chinese Communist party.  Thankfully for the world, leaders of foreign countries (the semi-sane ones) just rolled their eyes and instituted travel restrictions anyhow, to protect their people.  Which has no doubt had some effect (however temporary) in slowing the inevitable spread of the virus, and allowing nations time to get in gear.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/23/virus-travel-bans-are-inevitable-but-ineffective/

This excellent article explains why travel restrictions can exacerbate issues, including giving perverse incentives to countries because of the fear of economic backlash if they admit they have an outbreak. 

These people save lives by figuring this stuff out. These are longstanding policies that have nothing to do with China and fly in the face of the natural inclinations of many countries (communist, democratic, and everything in between) but are proven best practices.

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The WHO also refuses to list Taiwan as a "country" on their official website.  No doubt to appease China.

As many other countries around the world fail to do. In the case of W.H.O this is because it is more important for W.H.O. to be on good terms with as many nations as possible so as to be able to do its job than to lose access to some countries to appease self-righteous asshats who spend too much time reading Breitbart or whatever.

[Lady Anna]

Here in Portugal we have 30 confirmed cases so far. The more recent patients were people who came into contact with the first patients who were people who returned from trips to Spain and Italy. Some schools have been closed (at least one of the patients is a teenager, if i'm not mistaken), events cancelled, and visits to hospitals, retirement homes, prisons, have been restricted.

[Fez]

Apparently Ted Cruz briefly met, and shook hands with, the guy at CPAC who later tested positive for COVID-19.

It was 10 days ago, and Cruz is self-quarantining for the next 4 days; though he says that the medical advice he's received is that he almost certainly did not catch the virus. And also that testing would not be effective before he shows any potential symptoms.

For once, I am wishing for his best health. Because if he was an asymptomatic carrier than basically the entire senate could have it right now. 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Been pointed to this article that debunks some of the crazier China stuff we've seen, from a WHO doctor who's been to China and seen the test centers and hospitals for himself. Behind a paywall, being NYT, but still, if you can read it, I'd recommend it. Dispells some notions I had seen, like there being masses of super-mild cases that weren't being detected, and explains the high CFR in the Wuhan province as being due to how flat-footed they were caught and the length of time it took from infection to hospitalization (at the start of the outbreak, people were ill for as much as two weeks before being hospitalized or quarantined, which explains why it spread so wildly to start with; by now, they have it down to two days, greatly reducing the risk of spread and exposure to the vulnerable).

Apparently 80% of cases are mild and some people even completely asymptomatic. It's very likely that most mild cases are not detected because these people are not getting fevers, which is the primary method of mass screening, so they are not being put into the testing system, unless they show up at a medical facility with a bit of a headache and feeling a bit blah and the facility is still testing these people (which I doubt). All official numbers of all large scale diseases are significantly under-reported, and when a disease has presentations ranging from no signs of disease at all through to death, missing a whole bunch of not / not very sick people will happen.

My guess is that given 80% of cases are mild to sub-clinical that you can probably quadruple the official number and that will better approximate the true number of people who became infected.

[Ran]

17 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Apparently 80% of cases are mild and some people even completely asymptomatic.

This is addressed by Dr. Aylward:

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Do we know what this virus’s lethality is? We hear some estimates that it’s close to the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 2.5 percent of its victims, and others that it’s a little worse than the seasonal flu, which kills only 0.1 percent. How many cases are missed affects that.

There’s this big panic in the West over asymptomatic cases. Many people are asymptomatic when tested, but develop symptoms within a day or two.

In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. 

There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.

Once we can test antibodies in a bunch of people, maybe I’ll be saying, “Guess what? Those data didn’t tell us the story.” But the data we have now don’t support it.

 

[Fragile Bird]

That nursing home in Washington had 120 residents. 16 have died. 45 are in hospitals being treated. 

70 out of 180 employees are showing coronavirus symtoms. Several have been hospitalized. They have not received enough kits to test everyone, they only got 45 of them. You would think they could send enough kits to ground zero in the state.

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

You would think they could send enough kits to ground zero in the state.

There aren't enough kits.  And the ones that the white house minions have made available are faulty.  Many links and quotes about this situation -- which is why the contagion can't and won't be contained here -- the process of how it happened, have been put up on this thread and others too, for that matter.  This country is utterly unprepared to deal with this, and moreover, long even before t -- the budgets for public health and disaster have been cut, cut, cut, cut, cut.  Woefully unprepared doesn't  begin to cover the disaster that this nation hating taxes and the public good has committed against itself and others.

 

[Fragile Bird]

29 minutes ago, Zorral said:

There aren't enough kits.  And the ones that the white house minions have made available are faulty.  Many links and quotes about this situation -- which is why the contagion can't and won't be contained here -- the process of how it happened, have been put up on this thread and others too, for that matter.  This country is utterly unprepared to deal with this, and moreover, long even before t -- the budgets for public health and disaster have been cut, cut, cut, cut, cut.  Woefully unprepared doesn't  begin to cover the disaster that this nation hating taxes and the public good has committed against itself and others.

 

Well, that was the first go-round, the new test kits are good, and a million have gone out this week and 4 million are going out next week. Washington state should have received a plentiful supply, enough to test everyone in the nursing home.

[Kalbear]

47 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Well, that was the first go-round, the new test kits are good, and a million have gone out this week and 4 million are going out next week. Washington state should have received a plentiful supply, enough to test everyone in the nursing home.

No, a million have not gone out. A million test capability has gone out (maybe). And that's samples, which means since you ahve to test twice you can do 500,000 tests. 

But Washington hasn't seen those and is using primarily the test kits that they developed in house at UW. Maybe we will get to some in the future, but that hasn't happened yet.

[Fragile Bird]

16 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

No, a million have not gone out. A million test capability has gone out (maybe). And that's samples, which means since you ahve to test twice you can do 500,000 tests. 

But Washington hasn't seen those and is using primarily the test kits that they developed in house at UW. Maybe we will get to some in the future, but that hasn't happened yet.

'sigh'

They never make these things clear. Pence said a million and a half test kits went out and 4 million will go out at the end of next week.