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Mlle. Zabzie

Covid Your Mouth When You Sneeze (Corona Virus/Covid-19 # 2)

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Bolded - just like seasonal flu then.

 

I really hate this line that it's not so bad because it's old folk and those with co-morbidities that are dying A] as if that makes it OK then; and B] so if we take that out for COVID19, but not for anything else (eg flu) - then it's about as deadly as the comparitor.

Apples vs Oranges.

If you're going to look at the mortality rate in the under 60s for COVID, to compare it to 'flu; then you HAVE to make the comparison to 'flu in the under 60s (fun fact, 90% of the those who die from 'flu are over 65). Same story for co-morbidities.

Well yes, but the point is seasonal 'flu doesn't cause massive socioeconomic upheavals precisely because of the demographic pattern of the fatalities.

If people are trying to catastrophise the potential long term socioeconomic impacts of Coronavirus by making it deem like a possibility it'll kill 1% of everyone it infects across all demographics, then unfortunately you have to look dispassionately at the demographics of the fatalities and conclude that the concentration of fatalities to over 60s and co-morbidities means that while it's shit for people in those demographics, that's not a long term world shattering case fatality distribution because the Disability-Adjusted Life Year burden created by fatalities in these groups is not all that significant. If you are trying to "science the shit" out of what might be the future with this disease you can't be getting emotional about the at risk groups. The time to get emotional is after you've done the cold science and you use it to start making decisions on public health measures and public spending priorities. That's when you can tell the difference between the arseholes and the decent folks.

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Posted (edited)

Fair - but don't go around saying things like "for the vast majority of the population (i.e. 60yrs of age and under) the fatality rate right now is much lower than 1%, and more like the seasonal 'flu 0.1% kind of level, but it's a real killer for the over 60s." Because that's an apples to oranges comparison.

If you're going to break one down into aged groupings, then you have to do so with both, or it renders your comparison meaningless. As far as I can tell, COVID19 and 'flu target exactly the same demographic groupings - for exactly the same reasons; COVID19 is simply 10x more deadly in each grouping.

You've also got to remember that COVID19 isn't replacing 'flu - it's AS WELL AS 'flu.

 

If you're going to be cold and calculating, then be cold and calculating - not going overly dramatic because it's interesting; but also not under-selling the impact just because you see others over-selling. A false sense of secuirty is just as dangerous as a false sense of danger (possibly more so)


Incidentally, the WHO have released a recommended home-made hand sanitiser recipe here: https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_Local_Production.pdf
Which looks a LOT better than most of the home-made recipes I've seen being put out there, and typically amounting to 40-50% alcohol content.
It also looks pretty harsh on the skin, especially the first option at 83% alcohol - but then, replacing some of the water & glycerin with things like Aloe Vera gel and shea/coconut butter
could help with that; whilst (in theory at least) not chaning the efficacy

Edited by Which Tyler

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Fair - but don't go around saying things like "for the vast majority of the population (i.e. 60yrs of age and under) the fatality rate right now is much lower than 1%, and more like the seasonal 'flu 0.1% kind of level, but it's a real killer for the over 60s." Because that's an apples to oranges comparison.

If you're going to break one down into aged groupings, then you have to do so with both, or it renders your comparison meaningless. As far as I can tell, COVID19 and 'flu target exactly the same demographic groupings - for exactly the same reasons; COVID19 is simply 10x more deadly in each grouping.

You've also got to remember that COVID19 isn't replacing 'flu - it's AS WELL AS 'flu.

 

If you're going to be cold and calculating, then be cold and calculating - not going overly dramatic because it's interesting; but also not under-selling the impact just because you see others over-selling. A false sense of secuirty is just as dangerous as a false sense of danger (possibly more so)

It is also important to remember that the number of cases that require hospitalization is much higher than with the flu, which in the case of a massive epidemic (pandemic) will collapse any health system in the world, which will be a disaster in itself. It also seems to be more contagious than the flu.

 

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Latest data I am seeing is that WHO says 3.4%, but a Hong Kong university study says 1.4%. US officials are saying less than 1%. Shows you that the data are not great yet. The middle here (1.4) would suggest an infection less deadly than 1918 flu but more deadly than H1N1. This isn’t the flu. We should stop talking about it like it is the flu. In a lot of ways it is more dangerous because so many people appear to have such mild cases so spread it. The burden on health systems is real and we in the states aren’t prepared. 

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I would just like to remind everybody that over half the infected people have already recovered. 
So while it is important to take steps to contain the virus, recovery should be a  part of the discussion that is now centered around death. I know that’s scary and serious and nobody wants this epidemic to be fatal for x% of the elderly people contracting it.
But there is recovery and that seems to be completely lost among the news of death and rising cases and economic disaster and crippled health systems and panic shopping and all. 
I know it’s difficult to keep up one’s spirits while all we see is the disastrous impact of the epidemic on the world. And I know we as individuals and as nationalities and as the collective human race must do our best to contain it. But while we prepare for the worst, it is also important to hope for the best. Such frantic fear and panic will not help anybody to do their best. 
 

Currently we count 4 infected patients who are all said to have contracted the virus abroad. 

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Posted (edited)

quietly spreading in major US population centers for some time (I'd guess 4-6 weeks at a minimum). 

this has become my suspicion.  in new orleans, am thinking that tourism and conventions and international commerce have been bringing the virus around town for a while.

Edited by sologdin

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4 minutes ago, sologdin said:

quietly spreading in major US population centers for some time (I'd guess 4-6 weeks at a minimum). 

this has become my suspicion.  in new orleans, am thinking that tourism and conventions and international commerce have been bringing the virus around town for a while.

Oh definitely.  The US solution to COVID-19 thus far has been to make sure that there are very few people being tested, and thus only a small number of confirmed cases.  As a result, people who are sick and suspect they might have coronavirus are just told to go home.  Which of course means infecting a bunch of other people.  We can only speculate and make educated guesses about how many US cases there are, but I've seen credible people estimating the number in the range of 5k-20k (many of them are not yet exhibiting symptoms).  And since we aren't doing anything to keep those people isolated and to find and isolate the people they've been in contact with, we should assume that number will continue to skyrocket in the next few weeks.

It's almost as if ignoring the problem isn't working? 

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21 minutes ago, sologdin said:

quietly spreading in major US population centers for some time (I'd guess 4-6 weeks at a minimum). 

this has become my suspicion.  in new orleans, am thinking that tourism and conventions and international commerce have been bringing the virus around town for a while.

We just had a case in Ontario from someone who came back from Las Vegas. 

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20 minutes ago, sologdin said:

quietly spreading in major US population centers for some time (I'd guess 4-6 weeks at a minimum). 

this has become my suspicion.  in new orleans, am thinking that tourism and conventions and international commerce have been bringing the virus around town for a while.

Completely (my husband is actually there now for a conference....but whatever).  There are some schools in Manhattan that are closed today because of parental exposure from travel.  Basically, the cat is out of the bag, the milk is spilled, the barn door is open and the horse is gone....pick your aphorism.

8 minutes ago, sologdin said:

ostrich heads can't get infected if they're buried in sand. it is known.

And not only are we not testing, we CAN'T because we don't have enough tests.  It's very frustrating.

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14 minutes ago, sologdin said:

ostrich heads can't get infected if they're buried in sand. it is known.

Trump is of course to blame. But so are a lot of the bureaucratic staff at the CDC and elsewhere. If they think political decisions are putting people at risk, they need to speak up; staying silent is only making the problem worse. And if there are also bureaucratic decisions at play here, then they are directly to blame as well.

E.g. That DHS employee a month or so ago who was told to come to work when she requested to self-quarantine since she just came back from Wuhan. I don't think that can be put on Trump, that's a fucking stupid middle manager.

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3 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Latest data I am seeing is that WHO says 3.4%, but a Hong Kong university study says 1.4%. US officials are saying less than 1%. Shows you that the data are not great yet. The middle here (1.4) would suggest an infection less deadly than 1918 flu but more deadly than H1N1. This isn’t the flu. We should stop talking about it like it is the flu. In a lot of ways it is more dangerous because so many people appear to have such mild cases so spread it. The burden on health systems is real and we in the states aren’t prepared. 

A global average mortality rate is also a bit meaningless when there are some significant regional variations based on various other factors such as age demographics, general health of the populace etc.

The only reason for the 0.5%, 1%, 3.4$ numbers are to grossly compare with SARS etc., and even then I'd only compare them if those mortality rates are spread apart . If they are a factor of 2 or so apart for all practical purposes I'd consider them essentially identical.

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I heard an interview with a Canadian researcher on Wednesday who said that they had been given numbers by the Chinese that showed the fatality rates as being: 1% if you are under 50, 2% as soon as you cross 50, going up gradually so that it's basically 5% over 60, 10% over 70 and 15% over 80.

I don't really care about trying to figure out what the overall rate is, this breakdown is far, far more important.

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I found this quite informative by someone who is actually qualified to talk about these things - the whole thread is quite good

 

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I recall that 3.4% figure is from a particular set of data. The most comprehensive and trustworthy testing we've seen in any country in South Korea, where it's about 0.6%. Non-Hubei provinces in China are at about 0.7%. 

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Oh definitely.  The US solution to COVID-19 thus far has been to make sure that there are very few people being tested, and thus only a small number of confirmed cases.  As a result, people who are sick and suspect they might have coronavirus are just told to go home.  Which of course means infecting a bunch of other people.  We can only speculate and make educated guesses about how many US cases there are, but I've seen credible people estimating the number in the range of 5k-20k (many of them are not yet exhibiting symptoms).  And since we aren't doing anything to keep those people isolated and to find and isolate the people they've been in contact with, we should assume that number will continue to skyrocket in the next few weeks.

It's almost as if ignoring the problem isn't working? 

That seems low. The average person in a city directly interacts with an average of three new people per day, and the number of indirect interactions could be in the hundreds. Given the increased rate of positive diagnoses  combined with poor testing, the number could be way higher than that.

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

That seems low. The average person in a city directly interacts with an average of three new people per day, and the number of indirect interactions could be in the hundreds. Given the increased rate of positive diagnoses  combined with poor testing, the number could be way higher than that. 

It could be, but remember this is a new virus, and there is a long period after you contract the virus where you aren't even infectious yet.  That slows the spread a good bit. 

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20 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I heard an interview with a Canadian researcher on Wednesday who said that they had been given numbers by the Chinese that showed the fatality rates as being: 1% if you are under 50, 2% as soon as you cross 50, going up gradually so that it's basically 5% over 60, 10% over 70 and 15% over 80.

I don't really care about trying to figure out what the overall rate is, this breakdown is far, far more important.

That's basically this one: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
 

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
 
8.0%
60-69 years old
 
3.6%
50-59 years old
 
1.3%
40-49 years old
 
0.4%
30-39 years old
 
0.2%
20-29 years old
 
0.2%
10-19 years old
 
0.2%
0-9 years old
 
no fatalities

 

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1 hour ago, sologdin said:

ostrich heads can't get infected if they're buried in sand. it is known.

This is Trump's new urs-Skiotha STD prevention campaign

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