The Fourth Aegon and the Sixth

[Lord Varys]

Since people start to complain that very few people talk new things or do not give interesting quotes, I have this little piece to offer here.

Some people might know that I propose the idea that Prince Aegon, if he is the son of Illyrio Mopatis, isn't some 'love child' he had with the Serra woman, but rather the child with Valyrian features Illyrio picked from all the children he fathered on a dozen or a score of Lysene whores with Valyrian features to increase his chances to get a son who could pass as Rhaegar's Aegon (who did inherit Valyrian features). He would also only have married the Serra woman to ensure that Aegon could inherit his Pentoshi estates should he, Illyrio, die unexpectedly before the Aegon plan was implemented and the Iron Throne won.

If you consider this footnote from FaB

Quote

It is said that many years later, when King Aegon IV was in his cups, someone raised the matter in his presence. His Grace supposedly laughed and stated his conviction that if Lord Rogar were no fool he would have instructed all of the maidens sent to Dragonstone in 50 AC to bed the young king, since the Hand could not have known which of them Jaehaerys would prefer. This infamous suggestion has taken root amongst the smallfolk, but it is unsupported by proof of any sort and may be safely dismissed.

it seems George is very aware of the fact that limited choices (or only one) do not exactly necessitate or guarantee that the outcome you prefer is a given. This goes both for the seduction of Jaehaerys I and for the conception and birth of a male child with Valyrian features which could convincingly impersonate a royal prince.

What do you think - does this kind of thing increase the chance that Serra's son - if she existed - was just the lucky guy picked by Illyrio while the other children he may have had lived and died in slavery, or is this nonsense?

[The Lord of the Crossing]

Those traits commonly known as the "Blood Of The Dragon" are very unique.  The probability for a non-Valyrian to father such a child is very low even if Serra was Lyseni.  Yes, the child might come out blonde.  Might even come out with blue yes.  Purple?  Not likely.  But it could happen and maybe it did under the circumstances.  Illyrio was not planning this from the beginning but probably got the idea after seeing how the boy turned out.  He is lying to Varys.  The lad is not Rhaegar's Aegon.  

[Megorova]

Could you give more specific parameters of you theory?

Like - is Illyrio a Blackfyre, or was it Serra who was a Blackfyre? If it's Illyrio, then why in your opinion didn't Golden Company attacked 7K 15-20 years ago? Illyrio seems to be in his 40s, so 20 or so years ago, when he was young, healthy, and a capable fighter, why wasn't he at that time leading Golden Company, and didn't attacked Westeros? If he is a Blackfyre, then how did he ended up as a poor bravo on the streets of Lys?

In parameters of your theory, what's your explanation of this -> why there was 40-years gap in activity of Golden Company in Westeros (last Blackfyre Rebellion happened in 260), if they had a leader all this time, and that leader was Illyrio?

What makes you think that it's Illyrio who's a Blackfyre, and not Varys?

Does septa Lemore has a role in your theory? Is she fAegon's mother, or not?

[The Fattest Leech]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Since people start to complain that very few people talk new things or do not give interesting quotes, I have this little piece to offer here.

Some people might know that I propose the idea that Prince Aegon, if he is the son of Illyrio Mopatis, isn't some 'love child' he had with the Serra woman, but rather the child with Valyrian features Illyrio picked from all the children he fathered on a dozen or a score of Lysene whores with Valyrian features to increase his chances to get a son who could pass as Rhaegar's Aegon (who did inherit Valyrian features). He would also only have married the Serra woman to ensure that Aegon could inherit his Pentoshi estates should he, Illyrio, die unexpectedly before the Aegon plan was implemented and the Iron Throne won.

If you consider this footnote from FaB

it seems George is very aware of the fact that limited choices (or only one) do not exactly necessitate or guarantee that the outcome you prefer is a given. This goes both for the seduction of Jaehaerys I and for the conception and birth of a male child with Valyrian features which could convincingly impersonate a royal prince.

What do you think - does this kind of thing increase the chance that Serra's son - if she existed - was just the lucky guy picked by Illyrio while the other children he may have had lived and died in slavery, or is this nonsense?

I think, honestly, we readers are never going to have it confirmed if Aegon VI is actually the son of Rhaegar or Illyrio, etc (depending on ones preferred theory). I tend to think the lad is the son if Rhaegar and Lyanna, but only about 90% convinced and won't be surprised if not because his actual lineage isn't what the story needs. He is a mummer's dragon, real or not. That is also the future tragedy of it. He is the VI, and Daenerys will be coming as the 7th- and that serves the narrative purpose of bringing all of these name, number, and symbolism threads together.

Does Illyrio have other children that may have lived and died in slavery? Probably. That I would not put past him. He seems to be a tad prophecy minded which could be why he and Drogo made a "trade". Dany was wanted for her looks but more importantly her blood. But we readers know how trying to control "prophecy" will burn you in the ass instead.

• A Game of Thrones - Daenerys I

  "That would be most fitting," Magister Illyrio said. Dany saw the smallest hint of a smile playing around his full lips, but her brother did not notice. Nodding, he pushed back a curtain and stared off into the night, and Dany knew he was fighting the Battle of the Trident once again.

  The nine-towered manse of Khal Drogo sat beside the waters of the bay, its high brick walls overgrown with pale ivy. It had been given to the khal by the magisters of Pentos, Illyrio told them. The Free Cities were always generous with the horselords. "It is not that we fear these barbarians," Illyrio would explain with a smile. "The Lord of Light would hold our city walls against a million Dothraki, or so the red priests promise … yet why take chances, when their friendship comes so cheap?"

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Since people start to complain that very few people talk new things or do not give interesting quotes, I have this little piece to offer here.

Some people might know that I propose the idea that Prince Aegon, if he is the son of Illyrio Mopatis, isn't some 'love child' he had with the Serra woman, but rather the child with Valyrian features Illyrio picked from all the children he fathered on a dozen or a score of Lysene whores with Valyrian features to increase his chances to get a son who could pass as Rhaegar's Aegon (who did inherit Valyrian features). He would also only have married the Serra woman to ensure that Aegon could inherit his Pentoshi estates should he, Illyrio, die unexpectedly before the Aegon plan was implemented and the Iron Throne won.

If you consider this footnote from FaB

it seems George is very aware of the fact that limited choices (or only one) do not exactly necessitate or guarantee that the outcome you prefer is a given. This goes both for the seduction of Jaehaerys I and for the conception and birth of a male child with Valyrian features which could convincingly impersonate a royal prince.

What do you think - does this kind of thing increase the chance that Serra's son - if she existed - was just the lucky guy picked by Illyrio while the other children he may have had lived and died in slavery, or is this nonsense?

 

7 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

He seems to be a tad prophecy minded which could be why he and Drogo made a "trade". Dany was wanted for her looks but more importantly her blood. But we readers know how trying to control "prophecy" will burn you in the ass instead

I think this supports LV's theory in a way. 

Dany was wanted for her looks, which would be the same thing Illyrio 'chose' fAegon for. 

 

[FictionIsntReal]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Some people might know that I propose the idea that Prince Aegon, if he is the son of Illyrio Mopatis, isn't some 'love child' he had with the Serra woman, but rather the child with Valyrian features Illyrio picked from all the children he fathered on a dozen or a score of Lysene whores with Valyrian features to increase his chances to get a son who could pass as Rhaegar's Aegon (who did inherit Valyrian features). He would also only have married the Serra woman to ensure that Aegon could inherit his Pentoshi estates should he, Illyrio, die unexpectedly before the Aegon plan was implemented and the Iron Throne won.

This is an interesting theory that I wasn't familiar with earlier but I'm not sure about that timing. He couldn't have known far in advance that Aegon would be a candidate for such a swap, and having it happen too late would make Young Griff too young to be credible (here having more candidates does increase the odds that he gets one early). Do we know when he married Serra? It was a matter of public information, since it put him on the outs with Pentoshi high society. We also know that he has not currently acknowledged Young Griff as his son, since he's currently being presented as "Griff's" or Rhaegar's. I guess he could have it in his will.

10 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Those traits commonly known as the "Blood Of The Dragon" are very unique.  The probability for a non-Valyrian to father such a child is very low even if Serra was Lyseni.  Yes, the child might come out blonde.  Might even come out with blue yes.  Purple?  Not likely.  But it could happen and maybe it did under the circumstances.  Illyrio was not planning this from the beginning but probably got the idea after seeing how the boy turned out.  He is lying to Varys.  The lad is not Rhaegar's Aegon.  

The odds for any particular pregnancy is low, but @Lord Varys is suggesting he just recruited more women to multiply those odds. I have also heard the theory that there was a double-swap: Varys sent the actual Aegon to Illyrio in Pentos, and then Illyrio betrayed him by swapping Aegon out with his own child. There's also the theory that they lied to the Golden Company because neither of them care about Targaryen or Blackfyre bloodlines, although the question is why the GC would accept any such claim without something like an artwork's "proof of custody". That's also why I don't believe Varys or Serra are themselves acknowledged female-line Blackfyres: if the GC or other Blackfyre supporters thought they were important, they wouldn't have permitted either to be sold into slavery.

10 hours ago, Megorova said:

Could you give more specific parameters of you theory?

Like - is Illyrio a Blackfyre, or was it Serra who was a Blackfyre? If it's Illyrio, then why in your opinion didn't Golden Company attacked 7K 15-20 years ago? Illyrio seems to be in his 40s, so 20 or so years ago, when he was young, healthy, and a capable fighter, why wasn't he at that time leading Golden Company, and didn't attacked Westeros? If he is a Blackfyre, then how did he ended up as a poor bravo on the streets of Lys?

In parameters of your theory, what's your explanation of this -> why there was 40-years gap in activity of Golden Company in Westeros (last Blackfyre Rebellion happened in 260), if they had a leader all this time, and that leader was Illyrio?

What makes you think that it's Illyrio who's a Blackfyre, and not Varys?

I didn't see him mention any Blackfyres above, although it's possible he did somewhere else where he discussed this theory.

As for the gap in GC activity, they weren't passive in Essos, as they actually spend most of their time just being a mercenary company. But they also weren't all that likely to be successful. Their actual invasions of Westeros ended after Bittersteel died, Maelys was part of a larger plot with the Band of Nine and died on the Stepstones without ever reaching Westeros.

9 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

I think, honestly, we readers are never going to have it confirmed if Aegon VI is actually the son of Rhaegar or Illyrio, etc (depending on ones preferred theory). I tend to think the lad is the son if Rhaegar and Lyanna, but only about 90% convinced and won't be surprised if not because his actual lineage isn't what the story needs. He is a mummer's dragon, real or not.

I basically agree.

Quote

He seems to be a tad prophecy minded which could be why he and Drogo made a "trade". Dany was wanted for her looks but more importantly her blood. But we readers know how trying to control "prophecy" will burn you in the ass instead.

• A Game of Thrones - Daenerys I

  "That would be most fitting," Magister Illyrio said. Dany saw the smallest hint of a smile playing around his full lips, but her brother did not notice. Nodding, he pushed back a curtain and stared off into the night, and Dany knew he was fighting the Battle of the Trident once again.

  The nine-towered manse of Khal Drogo sat beside the waters of the bay, its high brick walls overgrown with pale ivy. It had been given to the khal by the magisters of Pentos, Illyrio told them. The Free Cities were always generous with the horselords. "It is not that we fear these barbarians," Illyrio would explain with a smile. "The Lord of Light would hold our city walls against a million Dothraki, or so the red priests promise … yet why take chances, when their friendship comes so cheap?"

I have a different interpretation: Illyrio believes in bribery rather than the Red God. The latter just happens to be popular enough in Pentos for Illyrio to present that assurance as the popular opinion there. Note also that it's a "promise" rather than a "prophecy", although it could be there is some relevant prophecy in that religion we just haven't heard of.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I guess my question would be timing.  Did Varys go to Westeros with the intention of swapping a baby male Targ with Ilyrios son all along?  Seems doubtful though technically possible.  So did he do this once the rebellion started, or once the real Aegon was killed/sent to him?  The timing is what always made it seem like something that fell into their hands, though Tyrion did comment on an age difference.  It is pretty unfair to expect someone to get someone's age exactly correct, aside from a newborn.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

8 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I guess my question would be timing.  Did Varys go to Westeros with the intention of swapping a baby male Targ with Ilyrios son all along?  Seems doubtful though technically possible.  So did he do this once the rebellion started, or once the real Aegon was killed/sent to him?  The timing is what always made it seem like something that fell into their hands, though Tyrion did comment on an age difference.  It is pretty unfair to expect someone to get someone's age exactly correct, aside from a newborn.

I may be misunderstanding but I don't think this theory requires a baby swap at all. The real Aegon died, fAegon is Illyrio's son 

[The Bard of Banefort]

I don't think we'll ever know for sure who fAegon's real mother is. But George isn't immune to extreme instance of happenstance; to this day, I still don't understand the logic behind Cersei's plan to kill Robert, which seems to have been to get him drunk enough that he would be mortally wounded by a wild animal before one of his kingsguard could save him.

[dsjj251]

On 3/7/2020 at 12:25 PM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Those traits commonly known as the "Blood Of The Dragon" are very unique.  The probability for a non-Valyrian to father such a child is very low even if Serra was Lyseni.  Yes, the child might come out blonde.  Might even come out with blue yes.  Purple?  Not likely.  But it could happen and maybe it did under the circumstances.  Illyrio was not planning this from the beginning but probably got the idea after seeing how the boy turned out.  He is lying to Varys.  The lad is not Rhaegar's Aegon.  

They are unique in Westeros, not in cities like Lys. 

 

[Megorova]

8 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I still don't understand the logic behind Cersei's plan to kill Robert, which seems to have been to get him drunk enough that he would be mortally wounded by a wild animal before one of his kingsguard could save him.

He could have fallen from his horse and broke his neck or spine, or could have been crushed by horse. Genghis Khan also died in a horse accident. There's a list of people, real life and fictional characters, who died in horse accidents:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_horse_accidents

In The Lord of the Rings (which is one of GRRM's favourite books) King Theoden was crushed by his horse and died.

So even without the addition of the wild boar into the mix, being drunk while horse riding is life-threatening.

[The Bard of Banefort]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

He could have fallen from his horse and broke his neck or spine, or could have been crushed by horse. Genghis Khan also died in a horse accident. There's a list of people, real life and fictional characters, who died in horse accidents:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_horse_accidents

In The Lord of the Rings (which is one of GRRM's favourite books) King Theoden was crushed by his horse and died.

So even without the addition of the wild boar into the mix, being drunk while horse riding is life-threatening.

I see what you mean, but Robert was an alcoholic. He undoubtedly went hunting while drunk all the time. Cersei got extremely lucky here.

[Lord Varys]

On 3/7/2020 at 7:25 PM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Those traits commonly known as the "Blood Of The Dragon" are very unique.  The probability for a non-Valyrian to father such a child is very low even if Serra was Lyseni.  Yes, the child might come out blonde.  Might even come out with blue yes.  Purple?  Not likely.  But it could happen and maybe it did under the circumstances.  Illyrio was not planning this from the beginning but probably got the idea after seeing how the boy turned out.  He is lying to Varys.  The lad is not Rhaegar's Aegon.  

The context here is that we presuppose that Aegon is Illyrio's son for the sake of the argument. If this were so it feels very odd to me that characters who are written the way Illyrio and Varys are would 'take their chances' that just one Lysene whore with the right features impregnated by Illyrio Mopatis would produce a boy with the right features.

And the point of the footnote is that George himself is aware of this kind of reasoning and has Aegon IV - a witty and smart fat guy, like Illyrio and George himself - come up with a similar argument in case of the attempted seduction of young Jaehaerys I.

Illyrio and Varys could not be sure Serra would produce a boy with the correct features, and they could not afford to impregnate her or another woman after they had tried the first time since they would lose nine months each time they waited for a child to be born. Instead, Illyrio would have impregnated a dozen or a score of whores would would have then all given birth around the same time and they would have picked the child who looked the most like Rhaegar's Aegon.

On 3/7/2020 at 7:48 PM, Megorova said:

Could you give more specific parameters of you theory?

Like - is Illyrio a Blackfyre, or was it Serra who was a Blackfyre? If it's Illyrio, then why in your opinion didn't Golden Company attacked 7K 15-20 years ago? Illyrio seems to be in his 40s, so 20 or so years ago, when he was young, healthy, and a capable fighter, why wasn't he at that time leading Golden Company, and didn't attacked Westeros? If he is a Blackfyre, then how did he ended up as a poor bravo on the streets of Lys?

In parameters of your theory, what's your explanation of this -> why there was 40-years gap in activity of Golden Company in Westeros (last Blackfyre Rebellion happened in 260), if they had a leader all this time, and that leader was Illyrio?

What makes you think that it's Illyrio who's a Blackfyre, and not Varys?

Does septa Lemore has a role in your theory? Is she fAegon's mother, or not?

This is all irrelevant for this theory since it is just about the how of Aegon's creation, not how the parents are related to historical figures. The only thing that's presupposed here is that Illyrio Mopatis is the father of 'the lad'.

On 3/7/2020 at 8:01 PM, The Fattest Leech said:

I think, honestly, we readers are never going to have it confirmed if Aegon VI is actually the son of Rhaegar or Illyrio, etc (depending on ones preferred theory). I tend to think the lad is the son if Rhaegar and Lyanna, but only about 90% convinced and won't be surprised if not because his actual lineage isn't what the story needs. He is a mummer's dragon, real or not. That is also the future tragedy of it. He is the VI, and Daenerys will be coming as the 7th- and that serves the narrative purpose of bringing all of these name, number, and symbolism threads together.

Not sure how Daenerys is a seventh Aegon, but that aside I'm very sure we will learn who and what Aegon actually is. At least in the same way we learn who and what Cersei's children actually are. Whether it will be publicly revealed or believed by all of Westeros is another question as is what crucial people like Aegon himself, Connington, Arianne, etc. will choose to believe.

Whether this will give us *absolute certainty* is a separate question - on that level we also don't have confirmation about the parentage of Cersei's children (perhaps Robert fathered them all while Cersei was sleeping and didn't wake up while she was raped by him?), etc.

On 3/7/2020 at 8:01 PM, The Fattest Leech said:

Does Illyrio have other children that may have lived and died in slavery? Probably. That I would not put past him. He seems to be a tad prophecy minded which could be why he and Drogo made a "trade". Dany was wanted for her looks but more importantly her blood. But we readers know how trying to control "prophecy" will burn you in the ass instead.

There is no indication that prophecy played a role in that whole Dothraki business. In fact, the whole Aegon plan reeks of political pragmatism and opportunism and is a great 'fuck you' to morons believing in prophecy. Varys and Illyrio wanted to create their own dragon king from scratch, they don't care about fulfilling ancient prophecies, real or imagined.

And while it is an interesting question why Drogo wanted a Targaryen princess for a bride we have as yet not slightest clue what his reasons were - although I've a feeling TWoW is going to answer this question. If I had to guess it was because of the Targaryen name - they were the last dragonlords out there and there are pretty strong hints in TWoIaF that the Dothraki both feared and admired the dragonlords of Valyria (else no Dothraki khal would have liked a title like 'the Dragon of the North').

On 3/8/2020 at 3:52 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I think this supports LV's theory in a way. 

Dany was wanted for her looks, which would be the same thing Illyrio 'chose' fAegon for.

If Drogo had just wanted some little girl looking Valyrian, he could have married some Lysene whore. He did not want Dany for her looks, he wanted Dany for her name and family tree. At least that's what I assume so far - it could also play in for him insofar as prophecies are concerned if the prophecy of the Stallion Who Mounts the World was saying something about dragons or dragonlords - which the dosh khaleen didn't reveal so far to any POVs.

Aegon had to impersonate a dead prince, so his looks were important, of course.

On 3/8/2020 at 6:14 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

This is an interesting theory that I wasn't familiar with earlier but I'm not sure about that timing. He couldn't have known far in advance that Aegon would be a candidate for such a swap, and having it happen too late would make Young Griff too young to be credible (here having more candidates does increase the odds that he gets one early). Do we know when he married Serra? It was a matter of public information, since it put him on the outs with Pentoshi high society. We also know that he has not currently acknowledged Young Griff as his son, since he's currently being presented as "Griff's" or Rhaegar's. I guess he could have it in his will.

The overall idea here is that I also assume that tyrion is correct and Young Griff is 2-3 years younger than Rhaegar's Aegon, meaning he was only conceived after the Sack. Then the death of the real Aegon would have been what triggered the Aegon plan in the first place, because Varys realized that the way in which this prince died would allow them to eventually convince a significant number of people that said prince hadn't actually died because the corpse could not be convincingly identified as the real Prince Aegon.

The idea that they would have just worked with one woman to create a boy with Valyrian features is insane, though, for the very reasons the Unworthy puts forth - Varys and Illyrio couldn't know that the Serra woman would produce a boy resembling Rhaegar's Aegon. Thus they would have been forced to work with more than just woman. Which, in turn, would mean that Serra was just the lucky whore they picked in the end (if she existed at all) and the whole love story was just BS Illyrio used to manipulate Tyrion.

I buy that Illyrio married Serra because that would make it easier for Aegon to inherit Illyrio's estates if he were to die too early (or the plan would be scrapped and the boy subsequently be told the truth) but, strictly speaking, we have no evidence but Illyrio's word that Serra existed, looked Valyrian, that they married, that the Prince of Pentos got pissed, that Illyrio loved her, and that she died of the Grey Plague.

On 3/8/2020 at 6:14 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

The odds for any particular pregnancy is low, but @Lord Varys is suggesting he just recruited more women to multiply those odds. I have also heard the theory that there was a double-swap: Varys sent the actual Aegon to Illyrio in Pentos, and then Illyrio betrayed him by swapping Aegon out with his own child. There's also the theory that they lied to the Golden Company because neither of them care about Targaryen or Blackfyre bloodlines, although the question is why the GC would accept any such claim without something like an artwork's "proof of custody". That's also why I don't believe Varys or Serra are themselves acknowledged female-line Blackfyres: if the GC or other Blackfyre supporters thought they were important, they wouldn't have permitted either to be sold into slavery.

That double-swap idea sounds like nonsense to me. The idea that Varys and Illyrio both play the Golden Company (indicating Aegon is a Blackfyre descendant) and the Targaryen loyalists like Connington (claiming he is Rhaegar's son) is something I like, since, from a story-telling point of view I find it the most satisfying plot if Aegon were just a pisswater prince with no noble blood whatsoever.

But there are still hints that Varys/Illyrio do have some kind of meaningful connection to and hold over the Golden Company. But this could just as well work if Varys was a Blackfyre descendant or Blackfyre bastard. He is still alive, although unable to continue the bloodline.

The idea that the Golden Company would be able to prevent or care to prevent it that Blackfyres or Blackfyre descendants are sold into slavery isn't really convincing. For one, said Blackfyres/Blackfyre descendants might not have been with the company but instead in thousands of miles away in a different Free Cities because that's where Haegon or Bittersteel married one of his sisters or nieces or daughters. Further, though, we do know that Maelys the Monstrous cruelly murdered his cousin Daemon (IV) Blackfyre, confirming that the Blackfyres weren't exactly all on the same page in the 250s (or whenever that happened exactly). We have no idea who took over the Golden Company after Bittersteel's death - it is possible there was even more infighting there between the last surviving sons of Daemon I or some other grandsons. In any case, Daemon (IV) could have had children, siblings, nieces, and nephews - and Maelys the Monstrous could have decided to sell some of them into slavery. Since he was leading the Golden Company his men wouldn't have objected to that (or if they did, they wouldn't have been able to stop him).

And Varys wouldn't have been a Blackfyre descendant who was sold into slavery but was instead born a slave in Lys, if we can believe Pycelle. This would mean that Varys' hypothetical Blackfyre mother had been sold into slavery at some point in the 250s.

[It all would work perhaps much better if Varys was just a Targaryen or Blackfyre bastard - then his mother would have been just some slave whore.]

On 3/8/2020 at 6:14 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

I have a different interpretation: Illyrio believes in bribery rather than the Red God. The latter just happens to be popular enough in Pentos for Illyrio to present that assurance as the popular opinion there. Note also that it's a "promise" rather than a "prophecy", although it could be there is some relevant prophecy in that religion we just haven't heard of.

Yeah, that just cynicism/political pragmatism. Illyrio doesn't give a damn about gods or religion.

We will eventually learn where the dragon eggs came from and how he got them if they were Elissa's (which is pretty much implied) and whether he believed Dany would or could hatch them, but that's a different question.

On 3/8/2020 at 3:17 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I guess my question would be timing.  Did Varys go to Westeros with the intention of swapping a baby male Targ with Ilyrios son all along?  Seems doubtful though technically possible.  So did he do this once the rebellion started, or once the real Aegon was killed/sent to him?  The timing is what always made it seem like something that fell into their hands, though Tyrion did comment on an age difference.  It is pretty unfair to expect someone to get someone's age exactly correct, aside from a newborn.

I don't buy it at this point that there was some kind of weird plan involving a child before the Sack. That doesn't make much sense. Chances are pretty good that Varys would have been able and willing to swap Rhaegar's child for some other to protect him, but that would be a different scenario. However, it makes no sense that the plan to shape a king in secret, etc. came up before the very specific manner of 'Aegon's death' prevented them with a unique opportunity. If there had been a swap and Robert/the Lannisters had never seen through the deception and had sent him to the Wall or killed him in a manner that allowed people who knew him to properly identify him and proclaim him dead then it would have become much more difficult to implement any kind of Aegon plan - regardless whether Illyrio/Varys had the real Aegon or a fake one, simply because people would have been less willing to believe in 'the miraculous return of Aegon Targaryen'.

And as for Tyrion's guess of the age - this is not conclusive but if Aegon turns out to be a fake this is likely an early hint that he is not just a fake but a child who was conceived and born only after the Sack. And that was the point of my original post.

1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I see what you mean, but Robert was an alcoholic. He undoubtedly went hunting while drunk all the time. Cersei got extremely lucky here.

She might also have been extremely desperate, grasping at straws. I'm inclined to believe the real 'strongwine plan' was the melee plan at the tourney. Get Robert really, really drunk before the melee and then you don't really need some catspaw to kill him in the fighting but can hope he gets himself severely injured just by accident - and once he is injured he is at the mercy of Pycelle, who will see to it that he never recovers. We can be pretty confident that Robert just getting a bad but non-lethal wound in the Kingswood could also have led to his death if he had been treated by Pycelle afterwards.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

21 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If Drogo had just wanted some little girl looking Valyrian, he could have married some Lysene whore. He did not want Dany for her looks, he wanted Dany for her name and family tree. At least that's what I assume so far - it could also play in for him insofar as prophecies are concerned if the prophecy of the Stallion Who Mounts the World was saying something about dragons or dragonlords - which the dosh khaleen didn't reveal so far to any POVs.

Aegon had to impersonate a dead prince, so his looks were important, of course.

Yeah, I don't think it's real clear cut why Dany was chosen. I do think there was a reason Drogo was seemingly willing to give an army to Viserys for Dany's hand in marriage, so she seems to have been coveted by Drogo, at least. 

My point was only that if Dany was, as the poster said, wanted for her looks, this sets a precedence for your theory in a small part because that would have been Illyrio's main goal - to make a child with a particular set of looks. 

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Yeah, I don't think it's real clear cut why Dany was chosen. I do think there was a reason Drogo was seemingly willing to give an army to Viserys for Dany's hand in marriage, so she seems to have been coveted by Drogo, at least. 

The idea that Drogo did not also very much want the last Targaryen princess for a bride makes no internal sense. He wasn't keen to go to war across the Narrow Sea, but he still agreed to help Viserys III with that, agreeing to give him part of his khalasar as an invasion force (although he originally never intended to go to war in Westeros himself with his full strength). He wouldn't have made any such promises if he didn't want to marry the last Targaryen princess.

This is something I think George is going to and has to elaborate on when he revisists the Dothraki in TWoW. Dany was in no position to know all the plotting and negotiating Illyrio and her brother did to arrange the wedding (and neither did Jorah know any of that), but some of Drogo's old people (like Jhaqo and Pono) as well as the dosh khaleen and some of the other khals might know stuff about that.

I'd expect that the natural plot of Dany's emancipation story would be to get over the 'my sun-and-stars' nonsense to understand what machinations behind the scenes led to her marriage to Khal Drogo.

3 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

My point was only that if Dany was, as the poster said, wanted for her looks, this sets a precedence for your theory in a small part because that would have been Illyrio's main goal - to make a child with a particular set of looks. 

Oh, yeah, I understood that part. Just wanted to point out that I don't think Dany's looks were Drogo's deciding motivation. Sure, his final decision to marry her was likely made when she was presented to him early on in ADwD and one imagines that looking Valyrian was part of the package to a point, but if the last Targaryen princess had looked more like Alysanne or Alyssa Targaryen he would have taken her, too.

[aryagonnakill#2]

19 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I may be misunderstanding but I don't think this theory requires a baby swap at all. The real Aegon died, fAegon is Illyrio's son 

Yes it's just that if they wanted to have a baby the exact correct age ready to go, that baby would have had to have been (roughly a year?) old when KL fell in order for the ages to match.  So it seems like they would either have gotten lucky or already been planning a child swap, or not started until afterwards where the child would be roughly 2 years to young.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Drogo did not also very much want the last Targaryen princess for a bride makes no internal sense. He wasn't keen to go to war across the Narrow Sea, but he still agreed to help Viserys III with that, agreeing to give him part of his khalasar as an invasion force (although he originally never intended to go to war in Westeros himself with his full strength). He wouldn't have made any such promises if he didn't want to marry the last Targaryen princess.

Absolutely, I agree. He was agreeing to a steep price for nothing if being the last Targaryen princess meant nothing to him. It must've. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

This is something I think George is going to and has to elaborate on when he revisists the Dothraki in TWoW. Dany was in no position to know all the plotting and negotiating Illyrio and her brother did to arrange the wedding (and neither did Jorah know any of that), but some of Drogo's old people (like Jhaqo and Pono) as well as the dosh khaleen and some of the other khals might know stuff about that.

I'd expect that the natural plot of Dany's emancipation story would be to get over the 'my sun-and-stars' nonsense to understand what machinations behind the scenes led to her marriage to Khal Drogo

Yeah I hope we get some of that info. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, yeah, I understood that part. Just wanted to point out that I don't think Dany's looks were Drogo's deciding motivation. Sure, his final decision to marry her was likely made when she was presented to him early on in ADwD and one imagines that looking Valyrian was part of the package to a point, but if the last Targaryen princess had looked more like Alysanne or Alyssa Targaryen he would have taken her, too.

Right, I agree. I think looking Valyrian was the icing on the cake but not a deal breaker if she didn't. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

47 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Yes it's just that if they wanted to have a baby the exact correct age ready to go, that baby would have had to have been (roughly a year?) old when KL fell in order for the ages to match.  So it seems like they would either have gotten lucky or already been planning a child swap, or not started until afterwards where the child would be roughly 2 years to young

I don't know if I'm understanding fully. I'm saying there would not need to be a child swap. The baby that was killed during the sack was the true Aegon, son of Rhaegar & Elia. 

Illyrio slept with numerous Lysene whores with Valryian looks  to create a male child with Valryian looks - to be able to pass him off as a Targaryen. He then had him raised with the teachings & such he thinks a 'good' King needs. Now that that child is coming of age, he has been presented as Aegon, son of Elia & Rhaegar with the back story that Varys carried out this baby swap - but in reality he is not the son of Rhaegar & Elia, he is the son of Illyrio & a Lysene whore, & there never was any baby swap. 

This could have been planned upon finding out Aegon was killed or could have been put in motion prior to that. We don't know what hand Illyrio or Varys may have played in causing the chaos that the realm was in but it's possible one or both of them saw the need to have a 'hidden Targ' prior to Aegon being killed. That was just the opportunity that presented itself. They likely knew the Targaryen reign was coming to an end, so whether or not they could have predicted Aegon's death, they could have foreseen a possible future advantage of holding the 'last' true born Targaryen. 

The age difference wouldn't make a lot of difference now. A new born infant & a two year old are very distinguishable from each other. A 10 & 12 year old, 12 & 14 year, or 14 & 16 year old etc are not. 

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that the Golden Company would be able to prevent or care to prevent it that Blackfyres or Blackfyre descendants are sold into slavery isn't really convincing. For one, said Blackfyres/Blackfyre descendants might not have been with the company but instead in thousands of miles away in a different Free Cities because that's where Haegon or Bittersteel married one of his sisters or nieces or daughters. Further, though, we do know that Maelys the Monstrous cruelly murdered his cousin Daemon (IV) Blackfyre, confirming that the Blackfyres weren't exactly all on the same page in the 250s (or whenever that happened exactly).

Maelys was the last known leader of Golden Company. He made a union with 8 other people, Ninepenny Kings. After the Band of Nine was created, first of all they attacked Tyrosh. As result of that attack Alequo Adarys, nicknamed the Silvertongue, became ruler of Tyrosh. When Maelys was killed at Stepstones, the rest of Ninepenny Kings survived and got away. 7 of them were defeated 6 months later, but Silvertongue ruled in Tyrosh for another 6 years, and then was poisoned by his "queen" in 267 (the War of Ninepenny Kings happened in 260, all members of the Band of Nine, except Silvertongue, were defeated additional 6 months later, and Silvertongue ruled in Tyrosh for another 6 years after that, thus the year of his death is 267, not 266 <- calculations in AWOIAF-Wikia possibly are incorrect).

Based on that information I made conclusion that prior the Band of Nine went to attack Westeros, Silvertongue persuaded Maelys to leave his (Maelys') woman at Tyrosh, in Silvertongue's household. That woman possibly was Varys' and Serra's mother. Then after Maelys' death Silvertongue sort of kept that woman and her children as hostages or leverage against Golden Company. Same as he persuaded the Band of Nine to first of all seize Tyrosh for him, and then persuaded Maelys to leave his woman  and Blackfyre-children under Silvertongue's care, same way afterwards he persuaded Golden Company that because it was supposedly Maelys' wish for his woman and Blackfyre-children to remain in Tyrosh in Silvertongue's household, thus now Golden Company are obliged to serve to Silvertongue, because he is taking care of Blackfyre-children, supposedly for the sake of Golden Company. So he continued ruling in Tyrosh, and was using Golden Company as his enforcers. Probably he was dispatching them here and there all over Essos on various missions that kept them away from Tyrosh and Blackfyre-children. And then Silvertongue sold those children into slavery. Varys got sold to traveling mummers, and Serra was bought by a pillow house, at that time they were approximately 7 years old. Or, if Serra was Daemon's child, then she wasn't Varys' sister (she was his cousin), and she was older than 7.

I think that Maelys' woman/Silvertongue's queen/Varys' mother was Jenny of Oldstones, she was kidnapped by Blackfyres during burning of Summerhall. If my guess about Varys' mother is correct, then there's a possibility that one of Jenny's children was Duncan the Small's child, and at the time of her kidnapping she was pregnant, and later gave birth, most likely, to Varys. So Varys is a Targaryen, and Serra is his younger half-sister and her father was Maelys Blackfyre. Or Serra was Daemon's child (born by some other woman, not Jenny), thus to Varys, who possibly is a Targaryen, she was some sort of distant cousin.

Varys' possible mother, Jenny, could be daughter of Rohanne Webber-Lannister, whose nickname was the Red Widow. So Varys is a Spider because his maternal grandmother was also a "spider". Rohanne could be the Ghost of High Heart, so the reason why Maelys kidnapped Jenny and impregnated her, is because of her magic-blood. For that same reason (magic-blood) Varys was used as a blood sacrifice during fire-magic ritual. Probably there was some sort of prophecy that was known to Blackfyres, the prophecy that if a Blackfyre will have a child with Jenny, then that child will finally get Iron Throne for Blackfyres, and Varys will accoplish that, by making fAegon to become the King of 7K. Or something like that.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 3/9/2020 at 11:36 AM, Lord Varys said:

The context here is that we presuppose that Aegon is Illyrio's son for the sake of the argument. If this were so it feels very odd to me that characters who are written the way Illyrio and Varys are would 'take their chances' that just one Lysene whore with the right features impregnated by Illyrio Mopatis would produce a boy with the right features.

It occurs to me now that he would have even better odds if he skipped the step of actually impregnating all those women and instead just sent people to look for kids already born with the right appearance (as Varys allegedly did with the "pisswater prince", although without the time constraint of the sack or the need to trick people by swapping it in for someone already known). Then he could also get around the age thing. If "Serra" never existed, that would fit this story best.

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Not sure how Daenerys is a seventh Aegon, but that aside I'm very sure we will learn who and what Aegon actually is. At least in the same way we learn who and what Cersei's children actually are. Whether it will be publicly revealed or believed by all of Westeros is another question as is what crucial people like Aegon himself, Connington, Arianne, etc. will choose to believe.

We learn what Cersei's children were after Ned investigates and Cersei confirms in the same book in which all the characters are introduced. I don't think there's space in the books for anyone to do a similar investigation of this surprise reveal character and then confront anyone about it like Ned did with Cersei.

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Whether this will give us *absolute certainty* is a separate question - on that level we also don't have confirmation about the parentage of Cersei's children (perhaps Robert fathered them all while Cersei was sleeping and didn't wake up while she was raped by him?), etc.

It was Robert who passed out from drinking, Cersei terminated a pregnancy if it wasn't from Jaime, and it seems like we're supposed to believe in the fantasy genetics of the Baratheon look.

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The idea that they would have just worked with one woman to create a boy with Valyrian features is insane, though, for the very reasons the Unworthy puts forth - Varys and Illyrio couldn't know that the Serra woman would produce a boy resembling Rhaegar's Aegon. Thus they would have been forced to work with more than just woman. Which, in turn, would mean that Serra was just the lucky whore they picked in the end (if she existed at all) and the whole love story was just BS Illyrio used to manipulate Tyrion.

Does Illyrio really need to make up such a story and put on an act to manipulate Tyrion? It seems like a risk that Tyrion could find out that he was never married to any such woman, no hands in his bedchamber and there wasn't any such rift with the Prince of Pentos. Illyrio already had the locket on him, rather than something he whipped up after Tyrion got mopey about Tysha. On the other hand, Tyrion finds out that Littlefinger framed him and nothing came of that.

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I buy that Illyrio married Serra because that would make it easier for Aegon to inherit Illyrio's estates if he were to die too early (or the plan would be scrapped and the boy subsequently be told the truth) but, strictly speaking, we have no evidence but Illyrio's word that Serra existed, looked Valyrian, that they married, that the Prince of Pentos got pissed, that Illyrio loved her, and that she died of the Grey Plague.

In addition to marrying Serra, he'd have to acknowledge Young Griff as their son somehow, which would conflict with also claiming he's Aegon.

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The idea that Varys and Illyrio both play the Golden Company (indicating Aegon is a Blackfyre descendant) and the Targaryen loyalists like Connington (claiming he is Rhaegar's son) is something I like, since, from a story-telling point of view I find it the most satisfying plot if Aegon were just a pisswater prince with no noble blood whatsoever.

That's my preference, but I also dislike R+L=J and prefer if Jon Snow is really just a bastard important due to his actions rather than his secret parentage.

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But there are still hints that Varys/Illyrio do have some kind of meaningful connection to and hold over the Golden Company. But this could just as well work if Varys was a Blackfyre descendant or Blackfyre bastard. He is still alive, although unable to continue the bloodline.

Are the GC even aware of Varys' involvement? Illyrio doesn't hold public office, so he can take trips to Westeros, but it would be trickier for Varys to go over to reassure the GC everything is on the up and up.

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The idea that the Golden Company would be able to prevent or care to prevent it that Blackfyres or Blackfyre descendants are sold into slavery isn't really convincing. For one, said Blackfyres/Blackfyre descendants might not have been with the company but instead in thousands of miles away in a different Free Cities because that's where Haegon or Bittersteel married one of his sisters or nieces or daughters. Further, though, we do know that Maelys the Monstrous cruelly murdered his cousin Daemon (IV) Blackfyre, confirming that the Blackfyres weren't exactly all on the same page in the 250s (or whenever that happened exactly). We have no idea who took over the Golden Company after Bittersteel's death - it is possible there was even more infighting there between the last surviving sons of Daemon I or some other grandsons. In any case, Daemon (IV) could have had children, siblings, nieces, and nephews - and Maelys the Monstrous could have decided to sell some of them into slavery. Since he was leading the Golden Company his men wouldn't have objected to that (or if they did, they wouldn't have been able to stop him).

If they were that far away or disposable to the GC, then how do they later convince the GC of their heritage in order to have a "hold over" them?

On 3/9/2020 at 1:46 PM, Megorova said:

Based on that information I made conclusion that prior the Band of Nine went to attack Westeros, Silvertongue persuaded Maelys to leave his (Maelys') woman at Tyrosh, in Silvertongue's household. That woman possibly was Varys' and Serra's mother. Then after Maelys' death Silvertongue sort of kept that woman and her children as hostages or leverage against Golden Company. Same as he persuaded the Band of Nine to first of all seize Tyrosh for him, and then persuaded Maelys to leave his woman  and Blackfyre-children under Silvertongue's care, same way afterwards he persuaded Golden Company that because it was supposedly Maelys' wish for his woman and Blackfyre-children to remain in Tyrosh in Silvertongue's household, thus now Golden Company are obliged to serve to Silvertongue, because he is taking care of Blackfyre-children, supposedly for the sake of Golden Company. So he continued ruling in Tyrosh, and was using Golden Company as his enforcers. Probably he was dispatching them here and there all over Essos on various missions that kept them away from Tyrosh and Blackfyre-children. And then Silvertongue sold those children into slavery. Varys got sold to traveling mummers, and Serra was bought by a pillow house, at that time they were approximately 7 years old. Or, if Serra was Daemon's child, then she wasn't Varys' sister (she was his cousin), and she was older than 7.

Why would Maelys hand over his family to Silvertongue rather than let his own lieutenants take care of such matters? And if Silvertongue was using them as leverage over the GC, why would he sell that leverage into slavery and lose it?