The Fourth Aegon and the Sixth

[Megorova]

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Why would Maelys hand over his family to Silvertongue rather than let his own lieutenants take care of such matters?

Did any of his lieutenants had a mansion or a house in Tyrosh, or some other settlement in Essos? Did Golden Company had a base in Essos? Where was it? The thing is is that when Rohanne and Daemon's children escaped from Westeros, they went back to Rohanne's home, which was in Tyrosh. But based on GC seizing Tyrosh as part of their conquest in 259, it seems that even if Tyrosh was GC's temporary base in the beginning, while they were commanded by Bittersteel, it seems likely that after his death they lost that base, and were evicted from the city by local authorities. So later they weren't against going back to Tyrosh to seize it. Though they seized that city for Silvertongue, so he's the one who had control over it. Thus his mansion was the safest place in Tyrosh. Furthermore, most likely all of Maelys' people went with him to fight at Stepstones, while Silvertongue, for whom Tyrosh was his native city, had there not only a house, but also servants who were not military like Maelys' people, and thus Silvertongue's servants remained in Tyrosh, while Maelys' people went with him.

Furthermore, if Serra was Daemon's child, then it's likely that there were disputes between members of Golden Company. It's likely that not all of them were Ok with Maelys becoming their leader the way he did. Maybe some of them wanted to take Serra and leave Golden Company to create a new Blackfyre group. Thus Maelys didn't trusted to any of his people, and instead left his family with Silvertongue, who, based on his nickname, was a very persuasive talker.

Even if Serra wasn't Daemon's child, even if both Varys and Serra were Maelys' children, there's still a possibility that some members of Golden Company wanted to get rid of Maelys, and instead wanted for Blackfyre line to continue from those children, only without Maelys' influence.

Also it's likely that if one of those children was not Maelys', then later he could have killed that child, for his own child to be the sole representative of Blackfyre family. It seems that Maelys was a bit crazy, he was very cruel. So maybe some members of GC were worried that Maelys' child is also crazy, thus they wanted to keep the other Blackfyre child alive, and for Blackfyre line to continue from that child and not from Maelys' child.

Or could be that Maelys was willing for his child (Varys) to marry with Daemon's child (Serra) and for the Blackfyre line to continue from both of them. Though because Maelys was crazy, his people didn't wanted his crazy genes thru Varys to mingle with Serra's healthy genes and polluting entire Blackfyre line.

So, if any of my speculations are correct, then Maelys didn't left those children with his own people, based on two reasons - 1. unlike Silvertongue, none of them had a base in Tyrosh; 2. Maelys didn't trusted his own people. 

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

And if Silvertongue was using them as leverage over the GC, why would he sell that leverage into slavery and lose it?

Maybe he became too confident in his control over Golden Company. If for those 7 (6,5) years they were serving to him, doing whatever he ordered them to do, even things that they didn't wanted to do, even if he made them to commit horrible antrocities and butcher entire cities, and so on, so he got used to them obeying to him, and sort of forgot that the source of his power over Golden Company are those children, and that without them GC won't serve to him.

Have you watched TV-show Muhteşem Yüzyıl (The Magnificent Century)? It's based on historical events.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhteşem_Yüzyıl

There was a character, Ibrahim. He was Sultan's best friend since their youth, later he married with Sultan's most beloved sister, and Sultan made him Grand Vizier, so Ibrahim became second most powerful person in Ottoman Empire. Eventually Ibrahim was blindsided by power and became too full of himself. He forgot that it's Sultan who is the source of his power, that without Sultan he is nothing. He said about Sultan (it did happened in real world, and there was records of this events, because at that time Ibrahim was visited by foreign ambassador and their conversation was written down):

"It is I who govern this vast empire. What I do is done; I have all the power, all offices, all the rule. What I wish to give is given and cannot be taken away; what I do not give is not confirmed by any one. If ever the great Sultan wishes to give, or has given anything, if I do not please it is not carried out. All is in my hands, peace, war, treasure. I do not say these things for no reason, but to give you courage to speak freely.

My master has two seals, of which one remains in his hands and the other is confided to me, for he wishes no difference between him and me; and if he has garments made for himself, he orders the same for me; he refuses to let me expend anything in building; this hall was built by him.

The fiercest of animals, the lion, must be conquered not by force, but by cleverness; by the food which his master gives it and by the influence of habit. Its guardian should carry a stick to intimidate it, and should be the only one to feed it. The lion is the prince. The Emperor Charles is a lion. I, Ibrahim Pasha, control my master, the Sultan of the Turks, with the stick of truth and justice. Charles’ ambassador should also control him in the same way.

The mighty Sultan of the Turks has given to me, Ibrahim, all power and authority. It is I alone who do everything. I am above all the pashas. I can elevate a groom to a pasha. I give kingdoms and provinces to whom I will, without inquiry even from my master. If he orders a thing and I disapprove, it is not executed; but if I order a thing and he disapproves, it is done nevertheless. To make war or conclude peace is in my hands, and I can distribute all treasure. My master’s kingdoms, lands, treasure, are confided to me."

And then Sultan executed him.

So maybe Silvertongue, same as Ibrahim, forgot whose the real ruler of Golden Company, that Golden Company is serving to Blackfyres and not to him.

Or maybe when Golden Company was sent by Silvertongue to one of his assignments, something bad happened to them, and back in Tyrosh reached rumors that GC was defeated and all of them got killed. So Silvertongue thought that he doesn't need those children anymore, because with Golden Company gone, they were useless to him. So he sold them to slavery, and then their mother poisoned him. And later it turned out that GC wasn't obliterated, that it was only a rumor. Same as there were rumors that GC supposedly died in the Narrow Sea, while they were going to Westeros in span between ADWD and TWOW. While what actually happened is that they lost only some of their ships and elephants. The rumors about their demise were exagerated. Could be that previously in history of ASOIAF something like that has happened before.

Or maybe my theory, that the children of Silvertongue's queen were Varys and Serra, is totally wrong. I just thought that this option could be a viable explanation of Varys' origin, his connection to GC, and how did he became a slave, and why does he care about fAegon, who is also a Blackfyre.

[FictionIsntReal]

5 hours ago, Megorova said:

The thing is is that when Rohanne and Daemon's children escaped from Westeros, they went back to Rohanne's home, which was in Tyrosh. But based on GC seizing Tyrosh as part of their conquest in 259, it seems that even if Tyrosh was GC's temporary base in the beginning, while they were commanded by Bittersteel, it seems likely that after his death they lost that base, and were evicted from the city by local authorities. So later they weren't against going back to Tyrosh to seize it. Though they seized that city for Silvertongue, so he's the one who had control over it.

The fact that they took part in seizing Tyrosh doesn't mean they'd been evicted. Having a base of operations there would assist in launching a coup.. And they were willing to seize it because the Band of Nine were willing to seize many places so they could all have kingdoms.

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Also it's likely that if one of those children was not Maelys', then later he could have killed that child, for his own child to be the sole representative of Blackfyre family. It seems that Maelys was a bit crazy, he was very cruel. So maybe some members of GC were worried that Maelys' child is also crazy, thus they wanted to keep the other Blackfyre child alive, and for Blackfyre line to continue from that child and not from Maelys' child.

Maelys didn't have any sons, the Blackfyre name would die with him.

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Maybe he became too confident in his control over Golden Company. If for those 7 (6,5) years they were serving to him, doing whatever he ordered them to do, even things that they didn't wanted to do, even if he made them to commit horrible antrocities and butcher entire cities, and so on, so he got used to them obeying to him, and sort of forgot that the source of his power over Golden Company are those children, and that without them GC won't serve to him.

The entire basis of his supposed "confidence" in your hypothetical was his leverage, and if he got rid of that he could no longer be confident. Nor would anyone simply forget that.

[Lord Varys]

On 3/14/2020 at 5:01 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

It occurs to me now that he would have even better odds if he skipped the step of actually impregnating all those women and instead just sent people to look for kids already born with the right appearance (as Varys allegedly did with the "pisswater prince", although without the time constraint of the sack or the need to trick people by swapping it in for someone already known). Then he could also get around the age thing. If "Serra" never existed, that would fit this story best.

That would be a scenario where Illyrio isn't the father - which is not impossible but less likely, in my opinion, considering that there are clues that Illyrio is very much emotionally attached to 'the lad' as well as a clue that Aegon might not be eighteen years old but rather 15-16.

The 'pisswater prince' is a pretty weird story, one that's hardly believable even in a scenario where Aegon is really Rhaegar's son because the chance that such a child would have Valyrian features is pretty low. I expect that the point of this story is to instill a sense of responsibility/devotion/duty towards the smallfolk of KL/Westeros in Aegon. If Varys saved Rhaegar's son he would have likely used a slave child from Essos with Valyrian features - there might be quite a few of those available with the slavers Illyrio to purchase the little birds.

On 3/14/2020 at 5:01 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

We learn what Cersei's children were after Ned investigates and Cersei confirms in the same book in which all the characters are introduced. I don't think there's space in the books for anyone to do a similar investigation of this surprise reveal character and then confront anyone about it like Ned did with Cersei.

There is no need for an investigation. All we need is that characters who know start to talk/behave in a certain manner. Illyrio has told us that he will join the gang in KL - if Aegon takes the Iron Throne in TWoW (which is pretty likely) Illyrio is going to join him a couple of days later. And then things might start to unravel - Jon and Arianne might overhear something or might notice things that is going to change their perspectives on Aegon.

Aegon himself might be told the truth by Varys and Illyrio - and this might change his views and behavior, etc.

One of the early threads I started after ADwD was about what Aegon might do if he found out who he was - a plot I think is in the waiting since the beginning of the series and also relevant in relation to Jon Snow eventually. And it is clear that George is saving this kind of plot for later since he deliberately chose to not use and play out this plot with Joffrey - he never learned who his true father was as far as we know nor did this trigger some kind of response on his part. Tommen and Myrcella might learn the truth before their deaths but they are not really in a position to influence policy - Aegon could. And I think this might become significant.

On 3/14/2020 at 5:01 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

It was Robert who passed out from drinking, Cersei terminated a pregnancy if it wasn't from Jaime, and it seems like we're supposed to believe in the fantasy genetics of the Baratheon look.

Sure, sure, the point is just that there is no absolute knowledge in those books. Cersei/Jaime merely believe Jaime is the father of Cersei's children - they cannot know. Especially since we don't even know whether Jaime and Robert were Cersei's only sex partners in those days (very likely but not confirmed yet).

On 3/14/2020 at 5:01 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

Does Illyrio really need to make up such a story and put on an act to manipulate Tyrion? It seems like a risk that Tyrion could find out that he was never married to any such woman, no hands in his bedchamber and there wasn't any such rift with the Prince of Pentos. Illyrio already had the locket on him, rather than something he whipped up after Tyrion got mopey about Tysha. On the other hand, Tyrion finds out that Littlefinger framed him and nothing came of that.

It is quite clear that Illyrio uses his sad story about the whore he fell in love with and married as a means to bond with Tyrion - Tyrion has just murdered his whore-mistress and once fell in love/married a whore, too. Illyrio realizes/knows that Tyrion is suicidal/very depressed and has to get his act together if he is going to play a role as a piece in his game.

There is no way Tyrion could see through any of Illyrio's lies considering the fact that he is effectively a prisoner in the manse and can only interact with Illyrio's own people.

Illyrio has a picture of a woman he calls 'Serra' - but it could just as well be a portrait of Daenerys.

And to be sure - the Serra woman might have existed and Illyrio may have married her, but I doubt he ever fell in love with her.

Although the idea that Lemore is Aegon's mother also makes some sense - she was pregnant once and why the hell did we get that hint if not to introduce the possibility that she might be his mother?

On 3/14/2020 at 5:01 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

In addition to marrying Serra, he'd have to acknowledge Young Griff as their son somehow, which would conflict with also claiming he's Aegon.

Not really. He could be 'Aegon Mopatis' insofar as the Pentoshi state is concerned and 'Aegon Targaryen' insofar as Connington and the Golden Company are concerned. The idea would be that Illyrio married the Serra woman after she gave birth to Aegon and they lived together at Pentos as a family for a couple of years before the toddler was handed to Connington.

In fact, it could be part of 'the cover story' that Aegon was disguised as Illyrio's son before he was given to Connington.

On 3/14/2020 at 5:01 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

That's my preference, but I also dislike R+L=J and prefer if Jon Snow is really just a bastard important due to his actions rather than his secret parentage.

At this point nothing Jon did had anything to do with his secret parentage, and I very much doubt that anything he will ever do is going to be something only a Targaryen can do (aside from, perhaps, mounting a dragon, but if that's going to happen it will happen near the end of the story).

On 3/14/2020 at 5:01 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

Are the GC even aware of Varys' involvement? Illyrio doesn't hold public office, so he can take trips to Westeros, but it would be trickier for Varys to go over to reassure the GC everything is on the up and up.

Varys went personally to Lys for the secret conference where Aegon was handed to Connington - confirmed to have been there are Varys, Illyrio, Connington, and Myles Toyne.

How much Strickland and the other guys know is unclear at this point, but they do know pretty much.

On 3/14/2020 at 5:01 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

If they were that far away or disposable to the GC, then how do they later convince the GC of their heritage in order to have a "hold over" them?

Because they were able to establish their identity in convincing fashion? They could have known stuff, could have resembled their Blackfyre parents and grandparents, could have had Blackfyre tokens, etc.

And to be sure - this hold is a contract written in blood as per Illyrio. What this exactly means is unclear. It is, however, not unbelievable that a man as vile and despicable as Maelys the Monstrous would sell his close kin into slavery.

[Frey family reunion]

On 3/7/2020 at 11:12 AM, Lord Varys said:

Since people start to complain that very few people talk new things or do not give interesting quotes, I have this little piece to offer here.

Some people might know that I propose the idea that Prince Aegon, if he is the son of Illyrio Mopatis, isn't some 'love child' he had with the Serra woman, but rather the child with Valyrian features Illyrio picked from all the children he fathered on a dozen or a score of Lysene whores with Valyrian features to increase his chances to get a son who could pass as Rhaegar's Aegon (who did inherit Valyrian features). He would also only have married the Serra woman to ensure that Aegon could inherit his Pentoshi estates should he, Illyrio, die unexpectedly before the Aegon plan was implemented and the Iron Throne won.

If you consider this footnote from FaB

it seems George is very aware of the fact that limited choices (or only one) do not exactly necessitate or guarantee that the outcome you prefer is a given. This goes both for the seduction of Jaehaerys I and for the conception and birth of a male child with Valyrian features which could convincingly impersonate a royal prince.

What do you think - does this kind of thing increase the chance that Serra's son - if she existed - was just the lucky guy picked by Illyrio while the other children he may have had lived and died in slavery, or is this nonsense?

I think this is certainly a possibility.  It very well may be that Illyrio consigned his other children into a life of being Varys' little birds.

I'm not so sure that I would limit it to Illyrio's biological children, if in fact he could father children.  The fact that he did have a previous marriage, yet we hear of no legitimate children of Illyrio makes me wonder.  Add in the fact that Illyrio is often so eager to provide some of his guests with carnal knowledge of his servant girls, makes me wonder if Illyrio's plan was to introduce bed slaves to guests with a dragon bloodline or other kingsblood.  

I'm not so sure that Illyrio is just trying to get "the right look" but he may also be trying to get the right bloodline, in case dragons do return, he would need someone capable of riding them.

The fact that Illyrio was fond of Young Griff, in my mind, is not necessarily dispositive that Young Griff is his biological child.  After all Young Griff was probably raised in his manse for a number of years, and if Serra is Young Griff's mother, he at least appears very fond of her.  It's not inconceivable that Illyrio would have an attachment to Young Griff without being his actual biological father.

[Frey family reunion]

As an amusing as aside, speaking of Illyrio and Young Griff, puts to mind the following quote from Illyrio:

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"Griff is different.  He has a son he dotes on.  Young Griff, the boy is called.  There never was a nobler lad."

George probably lifted that last bit straight from Tristan and Iseult

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So the marshal and his folk went back to the shore, and Tristan and his governor remained alone on the ship.  And if the story tells true never was there a nobler lad than Tristan,

(This quote comes while Tristan has boarded a ship where the merchants on the ship teach him to play chess, where he promptly picks it up so well he beats all the merchants).

I say amusing, because the origin story of Tristan is the very close parallel to the presumptive tale of Jon as the legitimate son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, (with a little bit of Robb and Jeyne thrown in).

In the origin tale of Tristan, a knight, Rivalain, sets sail to the kingdom of Mark of Cornwall.  There he is invited to a May Day feast where he meets King Mark's sister, Blanchefleur.  Rivalain wins all the knightly games, and Blanchefleur becomes an admirer.  They fall in love at during the celebration but keep their love a secret.  Then one day an enemy (Morgan) attacks Cornwall and Rivalain aids in their defense.  He is wounded in battle, and while he is convalescing, Blanchefleur sneaks in and helps tend to him. 

They then decide to run off to Rivalain's kingdom without her brothers knowledge and get married.  Another war with Morgan occurs, however and Rivalain is slain.  Blanchefleur shortly thereafter gives birth to their son Tristan and dies during childbirth. 

Rivalain's marshall Ruan is forced to make peace with Morgan, but to keep Tristan's true identity secret, he claims Tristan as his and his wife's own natural son.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think this is certainly a possibility.  It very well may be that Illyrio consigned his other children into a life of being Varys' little birds.

That would entail that he cared what happened to them after he discarded them. Could be, but I'd be surprised if he did.

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I'm not so sure that I would limit it to Illyrio's biological children, if in fact he could father children.  The fact that he did have a previous marriage, yet we hear of no legitimate children of Illyrio makes me wonder.  Add in the fact that Illyrio is often so eager to provide some of his guests with carnal knowledge of his servant girls, makes me wonder if Illyrio's plan was to introduce bed slaves to guests with a dragon bloodline or other kingsblood.

Well, that doesn't strike me as that odd considering that said cousin of the Prince of Pentos was likely little more than a wife to give Illyrio legitimacy and prestige. Considering the kind of business he and Varys were in chances are not that bad that her father/she was blackmailed into marrying him, meaning that this wouldn't have been a happy union.

But it is an interesting fact that Illyrio doesn't have any children (aside from, perhaps, Aegon). But there are quite a few people who could have children who don't.

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I'm not so sure that Illyrio is just trying to get "the right look" but he may also be trying to get the right bloodline, in case dragons do return, he would need someone capable of riding them.

If he himself was a Blackfyre descendant than his son would have the right blood. And I daresay the child of every Lysene whore with Valyrian features likely also could become a dragonrider. The blood of the dragon might be precious in Westeros, but it comes very cheap in Essos.

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

The fact that Illyrio was fond of Young Griff, in my mind, is not necessarily dispositive that Young Griff is his biological child.  After all Young Griff was probably raised in his manse for a number of years, and if Serra is Young Griff's mother, he at least appears very fond of her.  It's not inconceivable that Illyrio would have an attachment to Young Griff without being his actual biological father.

Sure, that is possible. At this point you cannot make a conclusive case one side or another. Aegon could be Rhaegar's son or not. But the hints for 'the fake version' indicate Illyrio could be his father - and if this was the case it could also help explain why they care about Aegon and Westeros at all.

But one doesn't have to go that route. It is inconclusive so far.

Didn't know about the Tristan quote. That seems to fit far too well to be unintentional. Great find.