Roose Bolton's Contingency Plan

[The Lord of the Crossing]

I believe Roose Bolton started plotting against the Starks before the Red Wedding.  He was sparing his own men and putting the other northmen in harm's way.  One could say this is what a responsible lord would do.  Look out for the welfare of his own men and preferentially protect them over the men from the other houses.  But he cannot explain away the release of Jaime Lannister.  He fell into Roose Bolton's hands.  Roose lets him go and promised to "give Jaime's regards to Robb Stark."  Roose is Tywin's man.  At the very least, it should be clear where his loyalties are not.  The Starks rebelled and for all the world knew, Ned Stark is a criminal who betrayed King Joffrey Baratheon.  That would be enough justification for any house to fight against the Starks.  Somehow, though, I do not think Roose was acting on principle.  

Roose is not a fortune teller.  He could not have predicted that the Starks would break their sacred oaths and insult House Frey.  So what were his contingency plans to survive after betraying the Starks?  He has to make sure the Starks lose the war.  It was very risky even if he might be able to explain his battle decisions to the slow-headed Starks and their other bannermen.  Helping Jaime escape?  Even a smart man like Roose can't explain that one and too many people knew for it to remain secret for long.

[Trigger Warning]

One of the first things that happens when Jaime enters Harrnehal is Aenys Frey kicking off about Starks, oaths and betrayal. 

But outside of that when Winterfall is sacked, Moat Cailin is taken, Stannis is smashed and routed and all the power of Highgarden has aligned itself with the Lannisters I think you're putting too much emphasis on the importance of the Freys. Even if Roose didn't know about it and didn't have Freys within Harrenhal to conspire with I think it's pretty safe to assume that he would have still believed the war to be lost. 

[Arthur Peres]

Roose cleary betrayed Robb after blackwater, before even getting knews of the broken marriage pact, but his betrayl could have started much earlier... I for once, think that Roose was already sabotaging Robb's war at the greenfork.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

24 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Roose cleary betrayed Robb after blackwater, before even getting knews of the broken marriage pact, but his betrayl could have started much earlier... I for once, think that Roose was already sabotaging Robb's war at the greenfork.

It's hard to say given that at the green fork he did exactly what Robb said and that his sole mistake of rushing the Lannisters could be explained by his trying to gain the element of surprise. As for loses remember due to Roose's management the Northmen loses though serious were not that bad.

[John Suburbs]

13 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

I believe Roose Bolton started plotting against the Starks before the Red Wedding.  He was sparing his own men and putting the other northmen in harm's way.  One could say this is what a responsible lord would do.  Look out for the welfare of his own men and preferentially protect them over the men from the other houses.  But he cannot explain away the release of Jaime Lannister.  He fell into Roose Bolton's hands.  Roose lets him go and promised to "give Jaime's regards to Robb Stark."  Roose is Tywin's man.  At the very least, it should be clear where his loyalties are not.  The Starks rebelled and for all the world knew, Ned Stark is a criminal who betrayed King Joffrey Baratheon.  That would be enough justification for any house to fight against the Starks.  Somehow, though, I do not think Roose was acting on principle.  

Roose is not a fortune teller.  He could not have predicted that the Starks would break their sacred oaths and insult House Frey.  So what were his contingency plans to survive after betraying the Starks?  He has to make sure the Starks lose the war.  It was very risky even if he might be able to explain his battle decisions to the slow-headed Starks and their other bannermen.  Helping Jaime escape?  Even a smart man like Roose can't explain that one and too many people knew for it to remain secret for long.

Of course he started plotting before the Red Wedding. He didn't switch sides only once the crossbolts started flying. So the question is when he turned his cloak. Some say it was all the way back at the Green Fork, where as you noted, he preserved his own troops while sacrificing others. But I wouldn't call this an outright betrayal at this point -- more like Roose hedging his bets a little. Regardless of who wins the war, the more men he has in the end compared to the other northern lords, the better.

So I'm with @Trigger Warningthat the actual decision to betray happened somewhere between the fall of Winterfell and the news of Robb's marriage, with Tywin's victory on the Blackwater as a major deciding factor. By then, it was all but certain that Robb would lose, and this was well before Roose sent Jaime back to King's Landing.

[Loose Bolt]

To me sacking of Winterfell was the moment when Roose had already made his mind to betray Starks. After all Boltons did that under their own banners and there were survivors from many houses and so Roose had to kill Robb and wipe out Starks ability to strike back b4 Robb finds out what really happened during that sacking.

[Curled Finger]

Though I tend to agree with most of those who believe the fall of Winterfell was the deciding factor in Roose's complete betrayal, he sure made out well in the aftermath of Robb's war.   Could Ramsay really dream up the plan to take Winterfell?   Sure seems like a thing devious Roose would come up with.   Roose and Ramsay are akin to the difference between psychological torture and breaking an arm, a switchblade or a mace.  There is no love lost between Bolton and Stark so what says Roose wasn't in touch with Tywin as soon as Ned was named Hand of the King?   Seems like a good arrangement to make at the time if the fall of Winterfell is the ultimate goal?  

[Finley McLeod]

He didn't need a Plan B.  Being the smart guy that he was, Roose reckoned the outcome would be a victory for the Lannisters.  The North had a lot going against them in this fight.  Roose put his money and his neck on a Lannister victory.  

[Eternally_Theirs]

*drops in*

Who are Roose's liege lords again? Do we know?

Oh, wait, we do. It's the Starks.

[James Steller]

22 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

It's hard to say given that at the green fork he did exactly what Robb said and that his sole mistake of rushing the Lannisters could be explained by his trying to gain the element of surprise. As for loses remember due to Roose's management the Northmen loses though serious were not that bad.

Are you kidding? The casualties of the Green Fork are atrocious. The biggest one sided defeat in the books as far as I can tell! Tywin has around 20,000 men, Roose has just under 18,000. We don’t know how many men Tywin loses, but given that he’s described as maintaining the number of 20,000, we can assume his casualty list was light (granted, there’s room for the survivors of Jaime’s shattered army to boost Tywin’s forced back to 20,000, but still). Roose, meanwhile, loses thousands of men, to the point that he’s down to 10,000 when next we see him in the books! That’s almost half his army gone, after Roose did the exact thing that Robb feared Greatjon might do: lead the Northmen in a desperate race without sleep, and charge into a battle while throwing away all their advantages. Roose orders his Northmen to blow horns when they approach the Lannister’s, undoing all their forces march by alerting the enemy to their presence. Then they take position on a hill but charge down it out of formation when there’s thousands of cavalry waiting for them at the bottom! The fact that Roose wasn’t dismissed from command and even court martialed is a minor miracle. Robb likely never heard all the details, or else he’d definitely have been in his rights to relieve Roose of his independent command.  

[The Commentator]

Rooose was disloyal from the very start but he had deniability.  He had deniability until the Jaime part at Harrenhal.  He could always say he made battle mistakes.  Mistakes are not treason.  

[Skahaz mo Kandaq]

On 3/10/2020 at 9:01 PM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

I believe Roose Bolton started plotting against the Starks before the Red Wedding.  He was sparing his own men and putting the other northmen in harm's way.  One could say this is what a responsible lord would do.  Look out for the welfare of his own men and preferentially protect them over the men from the other houses.  But he cannot explain away the release of Jaime Lannister.  He fell into Roose Bolton's hands.  Roose lets him go and promised to "give Jaime's regards to Robb Stark."  Roose is Tywin's man.  At the very least, it should be clear where his loyalties are not.  The Starks rebelled and for all the world knew, Ned Stark is a criminal who betrayed King Joffrey Baratheon.  That would be enough justification for any house to fight against the Starks.  Somehow, though, I do not think Roose was acting on principle.  

Roose is not a fortune teller.  He could not have predicted that the Starks would break their sacred oaths and insult House Frey.  So what were his contingency plans to survive after betraying the Starks?  He has to make sure the Starks lose the war.  It was very risky even if he might be able to explain his battle decisions to the slow-headed Starks and their other bannermen.  Helping Jaime escape?  Even a smart man like Roose can't explain that one and too many people knew for it to remain secret for long.

His contingency plan is be on the winning side.  Better if he could rid himself of the Starks though.  He had a succession problem and needed to make legit his bastard.  

[Eternally_Theirs]

If his plan was to stay on the winning side, he should have stayed with Robb.

Many say that Robb was losing on the battlefield, but I disagree. He was winning, and it was because he was winning that Tywin had to resort to getting rid of him outside the battlefield, because he knew he would lose otherwise. IMO, Roose should have stayed on Robb's side for this very reason.

[Trigger Warning]

33 minutes ago, Eternally_His said:

If his plan was to stay on the winning side, he should have stayed with Robb.

Many say that Robb was losing on the battlefield, but I disagree. He was winning, and it was because he was winning that Tywin had to resort to getting rid of him outside the battlefield, because he knew he would lose otherwise. IMO, Roose should have stayed on Robb's side for this very reason.

 

Robb had lost access to the North, the Freys and the Karstarks and now faced a coalition that brought a huge fleet and anywhere between 50,000 to 70,000+ fresh troops into the Lannister's power already mustered and ready to fight. In what world was Robb in a favourable position at this point, he's surrounded and outnumbered with a burnt out Riverlands as his only source of supply. 

[Brandon Ice-Eyes]

On 3/11/2020 at 1:01 AM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

I believe Roose Bolton started plotting against the Starks before the Red Wedding.  He was sparing his own men and putting the other northmen in harm's way.  One could say this is what a responsible lord would do.  Look out for the welfare of his own men and preferentially protect them over the men from the other houses.  But he cannot explain away the release of Jaime Lannister.  He fell into Roose Bolton's hands.  Roose lets him go and promised to "give Jaime's regards to Robb Stark."  Roose is Tywin's man.  At the very least, it should be clear where his loyalties are not.  The Starks rebelled and for all the world knew, Ned Stark is a criminal who betrayed King Joffrey Baratheon.  That would be enough justification for any house to fight against the Starks.  Somehow, though, I do not think Roose was acting on principle.  

Roose is not a fortune teller.  He could not have predicted that the Starks would break their sacred oaths and insult House Frey.  So what were his contingency plans to survive after betraying the Starks?  He has to make sure the Starks lose the war.  It was very risky even if he might be able to explain his battle decisions to the slow-headed Starks and their other bannermen.  Helping Jaime escape?  Even a smart man like Roose can't explain that one and too many people knew for it to remain secret for long.

I doubt it, he’s an opportunist who saw an opportunity to take control of The North and snatched at it. People over think his intentions and just how smart he is but in reality he’s just looking to strengthen House Bolton as much as possible and when the opportunity arose to betray House Stark for supreme power in The North, he seized it.

[Darth Sidious]

On 3/12/2020 at 6:08 PM, Trigger Warning said:

 

Robb had lost access to the North, the Freys and the Karstarks and now faced a coalition that brought a huge fleet and anywhere between 50,000 to 70,000+ fresh troops into the Lannister's power already mustered and ready to fight. In what world was Robb in a favourable position at this point, he's surrounded and outnumbered with a burnt out Riverlands as his only source of supply. 

Correct me if I'm mistaken but aren't we to look at Roose Bolton's intentions at the beginning of the campaign?  Before the Lannister victory was assured?  

I don't know.  It can be as simple as Roose having the military expertise to think the Starks would lose the war.  That puts him in the lonely corner.  All the other lords thought they could bring Joffrey to his knees.  Wouldn't a smart guy like Manderly arrive at the same conclusion?

[Loose Bolt]

6 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Correct me if I'm mistaken but aren't we to look at Roose Bolton's intentions at the beginning of the campaign?  Before the Lannister victory was assured?  

I don't know.  It can be as simple as Roose having the military expertise to think the Starks would lose the war.  That puts him in the lonely corner.  All the other lords thought they could bring Joffrey to his knees.  Wouldn't a smart guy like Manderly arrive at the same conclusion?

I assume that Robb and most of his lords thought that they would have active support of Vale. After all they were allies of his father during the rebellion and their actual leader was his aunt. If that had happened Starks and Tullys would have very good chances of smashing Lannisters.

So Roose could not have betrayed Starks b4 he was sure that Vale stays "neutral" and do not send any troops into Riverlands.

[Darth Sidious]

On 3/14/2020 at 3:04 AM, Loose Bolt said:

I assume that Robb and most of his lords thought that they would have active support of Vale. After all they were allies of his father during the rebellion and their actual leader was his aunt. If that had happened Starks and Tullys would have very good chances of smashing Lannisters.

So Roose could not have betrayed Starks b4 he was sure that Vale stays "neutral" and do not send any troops into Riverlands.

So, on this topic, it is hard to fault Lysa for keeping the Vale out.  What she knew was what everybody else knew.  That would be Ned Stark being accused of treason.  

[The Lord of the Crossing]

On 3/11/2020 at 12:05 AM, Trigger Warning said:

One of the first things that happens when Jaime enters Harrnehal is Aenys Frey kicking off about Starks, oaths and betrayal. 

But outside of that when Winterfall is sacked, Moat Cailin is taken, Stannis is smashed and routed and all the power of Highgarden has aligned itself with the Lannisters I think you're putting too much emphasis on the importance of the Freys. Even if Roose didn't know about it and didn't have Freys within Harrenhal to conspire with I think it's pretty safe to assume that he would have still believed the war to be lost. 

The Freys made it possible to remove the rebels without too much trouble.  The war would have continued and the victory uncertain without them.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

On 3/13/2020 at 8:28 AM, Brandon Ice-Eyes said:

I doubt it, he’s an opportunist who saw an opportunity to take control of The North and snatched at it. People over think his intentions and just how smart he is but in reality he’s just looking to strengthen House Bolton as much as possible and when the opportunity arose to betray House Stark for supreme power in The North, he seized it.

He made opportunities.  Waiting for an opportunity is passive.  Roose was active in reducing the number of men available to the Starks.