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Love in the Time of Coronavirus (#3)


Mlle. Zabzie

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5 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Look, guys, I don’t mean to be depressing (*warning sirens go off*) but it’s been 17 years since the start of SARs and there still is no vaccine. Not for MERs either.

I have great doubts about a Covid-19 vaccine coming along any time soon.

That's more because of a lack of interest and resources. Those stopped being an issue quickly and the funding dried up. It wasn't necessarily an issue with the science. There were some early difficulties, by any vaccine research might have that. And, by contrast, the H1N1 vaccine was ready in only around 6 months.

Also, I suspect there will be more resources (both hours and money) poured into finding a vaccine for COVID-19 than possibly any other infectious disease in human history. 

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7 minutes ago, Fez said:

The problem is, if we're actually effective at social distancing; then whenever we stop is the time when the hospitals will get overrun. Unless we really spread this all out over a long enough period. 

On top of that, there's really far too many unknowns still to assess the risks remaining. We don't know what longterm health problems may stem from the virus, or how common those problems will be (There's been early suggestions that some people may have permanently reduced lung capacity; but will that be 0.05% of people; 2%; 10%?) We also don't know much of anything about the risk of reinfection yet. There's been more than 100 cases of reinfection in China so far, but its unknown if they are actually reinfected or if they were declared free of the virus earlier than they should've been.

Maybe at a certain point we decide the cure is worse than the disease and just starting living with the virus. But that's a death sentence for an awful lot of people over age 70.

 

Not to be depressing, but we are going to have to live with this, and we are going to have to accept that there are going to be deaths.  This sounds terribly depressing, but there is a limit to how long these social distancing measures are sustainable.  That’s why it is important to do it now, which hopefully will give us some time to expand hospital capacity.  (Not that I have any faith that this will be done, but the supply is only static in the short term, not in the medium term, if we were actually disciplined about this).

6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Look, guys, I don’t mean to be depressing (*warning sirens go off*) but it’s been 17 years since the start of SARs and there still is no vaccine. Not for MERs either.

I have great doubts about a Covid-19 vaccine coming along any time soon.

I disagree.  The efforts were both abandoned because the outbreaks disappeared as abruptly as they arrived.  They were both MUCH deadlier at an individual case level, which is why they could be managed differently.  This has a much greater impact on the world, and think there will be more will to invest in a vaccine.  

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4 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Not to be depressing, but we are going to have to live with this, and we are going to have to accept that there are going to be deaths.  This sounds terribly depressing, but there is a limit to how long these social distancing measures are sustainable.  That’s why it is important to do it now, which hopefully will give us some time to expand hospital capacity.  (Not that I have any faith that this will be done, but the supply is only static in the short term, not in the medium term, if we were actually disciplined about this).

I disagree.  The efforts were both abandoned because the outbreaks disappeared as abruptly as they arrived.  They were both MUCH deadlier at an individual case level, which is why they could be managed differently.  This has a much greater impact on the world, and think there will be more will to invest in a vaccine.  

 

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

That's more because of a lack of interest and resources. Those stopped being an issue quickly and the funding dried up. It wasn't necessarily an issue with the science. There were some early difficulties, by any vaccine research might have that. And, by contrast, the H1N1 vaccine was ready in only around 6 months.

Also, I suspect there will be more resources (both hours and money) poured into finding a vaccine for COVID-19 than possibly any other infectious disease in human history. 

I don't mean to be depressing either, but even though I agree that there will probably be a lot of resources put into creating a vaccine, that doesn't mean there will be one soon. I think one of the unknowns about this is how easy it will be to create a vaccine for this particular virus and how effective it will be when it's done. There are some problems that can't be quickly fixed just by throwing a lot of money at them. 

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Will respond to quotes when I have the time, but great, they think it’s in the hospital now and are setting up quarantine testing. FML.

On the shopping note, I go every Monday and Thursday to a smaller high end store. There was nothing unusual Monday. Yesterday was shocking. All the soap, sanitizer, TP and wipes were gone. And so was the water @Ormond.

(okay that’s not 100% true. The overpriced Fiji water was still there)

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11 minutes ago, Ormond said:

 

I don't mean to be depressing either, but even though I agree that there will probably be a lot of resources put into creating a vaccine, that doesn't mean there will be one soon. I think one of the unknowns about this is how easy it will be to create a vaccine for this particular virus and how effective it will be when it's done. There are some problems that can't be quickly fixed just by throwing a lot of money at them. 

Certainly true. Although Israeli scientists seem to think they may already have a vaccine; albeit one that needs to go through an awful lot of testing before its confirmed as safe and effective.

There's also a fast-tracked clinical test of a vaccine already recruiting in the Seattle area; they skipped animal testing and went straight to humans (not sure how they got permission for that). It is a 14-month trial, starting in April, so it's not like it'd be ready this summer, but that's some pretty significant progress.

The Israeli research is using a customizable vaccine that they've been working on for years; which, back in December, they started focusing on how it could be customized to COVID-19. The Moderna Research one is using an artificial replica of the viral RNA rather than using a weak/dead version of the virus. No idea if either will work, I'm no scientist. But both are innovative idea; and I'm sure there's a lot of other innovative ideas, as well as more traditional research, being pursued.

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7 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is the age of the Italian population the explanation for the 6.7% death rate in Italy?  Or is there some other reason?

Question or calling for speculation?

I can only speculate.

Age + quantitative impact on health service quality, are likely the most direct factors. 

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14 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Brave new world on this front.  Maybe better for the gallow-humor thread, but my husband, who is a litigator who does a lot of securities cases/stock drop cases on the defense side thinks he’s going to be REALLY busy (he’s already busy).  

How is that even possible? Certainly there must be case law and precedent to go off of.

And your other gallows joke was better. :P

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2 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Question or calling for speculation?

I can only speculate.

Age + quantitative impact on health service quality, are likely the most direct factors. 

I've read that factors that may contribute to higher fatality in Italy being: age of population, prevalence of smokers, culture of close contact (Italians hug and kiss each other a lot), and a pretty cavalier attitude to the seriousness of the disease in early going.

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Just now, DanteGabriel said:

a pretty cavalier attitude to the seriousness of the disease in early going.

I saw an article where Italians basically said it was mad to expect them them to give up getting a coffee at a cafe or taking a pre-dinner aperitivo in a bar.

They definitely did not take it as seriously as they should be.

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14 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is the age of the Italian population the explanation for the 6.7% death rate in Italy?  Or is there some other reason?

According to a blogger who lives in Milan with her Italian husban and writes articles about the quarantine, it is largely because of their aged population and partly because of how lightly citizens took initial warnings and restrictions. She claimed that many of the critical cases escalated because people waited to seek medical help until it was (Nearly) too late. This is completely unofficial and not scientific information. 

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1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Both.  Doesn’t Italy have a decent health care system?

I don't know, can't speak to that.

But whether they do or not, there's only so many beds and health care professionals. System gets stressed, many stay away, some aren't treated at all, spread continues, further overwhelming the system, and so on and so forth. Too many sick at once risk creating a cascade. 

Come on man, you're not dumb. This isn't rocket science.

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4 minutes ago, Ran said:

I saw an article where Italians basically said it was mad to expect them them to give up getting a coffee at a cafe or taking a pre-dinner aperitivo in a bar.

They definitely did not take it as seriously as they should be.

But these are all reasons to spread wider, not to rise the share of fatalities, right?

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Just now, 3CityApache said:

But these are all reasons to spread wider, not to rise the share of fatalities, right?

Yes, that was just a side bar to the question of Italian fatality rate.

The Italian death rate is basically where it could have ended up in Hubei if Hubei had a population as old as Italy. China's population is people 65 or older is just short of 12%; in Italy, it's 22%. Part of the reason Hubei had massive problems compared to the rest of China was that it didn't have as high quality health care facilities, perhaps, but mostly it's that it went around for weeks unchecked. Italy basically failed wildly at containing and then mitigating, whereas in Wuhan and the wider Hubei they too initially failed containment and mitigation... and then shut down an entire province and locked it up tight to contain it.

That's my take, anyways.

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France is shutting down. No gathering of more than a hundred people, most public activites (sports, associations... ) suspended until further notice....
Public transportation is maintained for the time being though, as well as local elections on sundays. But with schools closed, many people will have to stop work to take care of their kids. People are encouraged to work from home if possible, and Macron has announced the state will compensate companies and employees who have to reduce their activity. The healthcare system is on full alert and all medical personel are being mobilized.
I think the economy should grind to a halt within a few days. Predictions are 2-3 weeks at present, but it could easily be an entire month.

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