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Mlle. Zabzie

Love in the Time of Coronavirus (#3)

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5 minutes ago, Chad Vader said:

My town and all towns around me have cancelled school for minimum 2 weeks. Luckily I am off till April 1st so I can stay with my kids but what do people do who can’t take the time off? It feels like an apocalypse, the shop rite in my town had lines all the way to the meat dept. 

You get your grandparents to look after them... oh! 

(maybe closing schools isn't such a good idea)

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Posted (edited)

I went to Kroger yesterday on my lunch break, fully expecting the store to be ransacked. In fact it wasn't that bad at all. There were more people shopping than usual, but not that many more. The shelves were a bit picked over but otherwise stocked decently enough. Bottom line was I found everything I needed, including toilet paper (I was down to two rolls at home). I must confess that I've never bought hand sanitizer in my life and didn't think to look yesterday, so I have no idea if they were out of that or not. 

What I focused on buying was non-perishable foodstuffs. I normally keep about a week's worth of canned goods in my pantry for emergencies. Now I've got 2-3 weeks' worth. I figure if the shit really hits the fan for longer than that, we'll all have bigger problems to deal with. 

I'm frankly a bit surprised that there hasn't been more panic-buying here, considering that any time there's a quarter inch of snow in the weather forecast the stores here run out of everything.  :lol: 

Edited by Ferrum Aeternum

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1 hour ago, sologdin said:

doesn't in the slightest change the fact, that most big supermarkets are out of it for days now.

standard capitalist practice is export for profit that causes internal famine.

What does that say for Marx’s ideas about global economics.  If localities hoard how does that work?

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10 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Well, I don’t think quarantines etc are the new normal until there is a vaccine.  The more depressing thought is that in fact it will run through the population over the next several months and we have to hope that it doesn’t mutate the other direction so that we have a second wave reinfecting people who have recovered.  Right now we are, I think, in a position where we just want to blunt the impact on hospitals as best as possible.  But there will inevitably come a time when we all know someone who was definitively diagnosed and/or have had it.......  Think that happens before a vaccine, and schools etc will not remained closed fro 18 mo- 2 years.

The problem is, if we're actually effective at social distancing; then whenever we stop is the time when the hospitals will get overrun. Unless we really spread this all out over a long enough period. 

On top of that, there's really far too many unknowns still to assess the risks remaining. We don't know what longterm health problems may stem from the virus, or how common those problems will be (There's been early suggestions that some people may have permanently reduced lung capacity; but will that be 0.05% of people; 2%; 10%?) We also don't know much of anything about the risk of reinfection yet. There's been more than 100 cases of reinfection in China so far, but its unknown if they are actually reinfected or if they were declared free of the virus earlier than they should've been.

Maybe at a certain point we decide the cure is worse than the disease and just starting living with the virus. But that's a death sentence for an awful lot of people over age 70.

 

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Look, guys, I don’t mean to be depressing (*warning sirens go off*) but it’s been 17 years since the start of SARs and there still is no vaccine. Not for MERs either.

I have great doubts about a Covid-19 vaccine coming along any time soon.

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5 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Look, guys, I don’t mean to be depressing (*warning sirens go off*) but it’s been 17 years since the start of SARs and there still is no vaccine. Not for MERs either.

I have great doubts about a Covid-19 vaccine coming along any time soon.

That's more because of a lack of interest and resources. Those stopped being an issue quickly and the funding dried up. It wasn't necessarily an issue with the science. There were some early difficulties, by any vaccine research might have that. And, by contrast, the H1N1 vaccine was ready in only around 6 months.

Also, I suspect there will be more resources (both hours and money) poured into finding a vaccine for COVID-19 than possibly any other infectious disease in human history. 

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7 minutes ago, Fez said:

The problem is, if we're actually effective at social distancing; then whenever we stop is the time when the hospitals will get overrun. Unless we really spread this all out over a long enough period. 

On top of that, there's really far too many unknowns still to assess the risks remaining. We don't know what longterm health problems may stem from the virus, or how common those problems will be (There's been early suggestions that some people may have permanently reduced lung capacity; but will that be 0.05% of people; 2%; 10%?) We also don't know much of anything about the risk of reinfection yet. There's been more than 100 cases of reinfection in China so far, but its unknown if they are actually reinfected or if they were declared free of the virus earlier than they should've been.

Maybe at a certain point we decide the cure is worse than the disease and just starting living with the virus. But that's a death sentence for an awful lot of people over age 70.

 

Not to be depressing, but we are going to have to live with this, and we are going to have to accept that there are going to be deaths.  This sounds terribly depressing, but there is a limit to how long these social distancing measures are sustainable.  That’s why it is important to do it now, which hopefully will give us some time to expand hospital capacity.  (Not that I have any faith that this will be done, but the supply is only static in the short term, not in the medium term, if we were actually disciplined about this).

6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Look, guys, I don’t mean to be depressing (*warning sirens go off*) but it’s been 17 years since the start of SARs and there still is no vaccine. Not for MERs either.

I have great doubts about a Covid-19 vaccine coming along any time soon.

I disagree.  The efforts were both abandoned because the outbreaks disappeared as abruptly as they arrived.  They were both MUCH deadlier at an individual case level, which is why they could be managed differently.  This has a much greater impact on the world, and think there will be more will to invest in a vaccine.  

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4 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Not to be depressing, but we are going to have to live with this, and we are going to have to accept that there are going to be deaths.  This sounds terribly depressing, but there is a limit to how long these social distancing measures are sustainable.  That’s why it is important to do it now, which hopefully will give us some time to expand hospital capacity.  (Not that I have any faith that this will be done, but the supply is only static in the short term, not in the medium term, if we were actually disciplined about this).

I disagree.  The efforts were both abandoned because the outbreaks disappeared as abruptly as they arrived.  They were both MUCH deadlier at an individual case level, which is why they could be managed differently.  This has a much greater impact on the world, and think there will be more will to invest in a vaccine.  

 

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

That's more because of a lack of interest and resources. Those stopped being an issue quickly and the funding dried up. It wasn't necessarily an issue with the science. There were some early difficulties, by any vaccine research might have that. And, by contrast, the H1N1 vaccine was ready in only around 6 months.

Also, I suspect there will be more resources (both hours and money) poured into finding a vaccine for COVID-19 than possibly any other infectious disease in human history. 

I don't mean to be depressing either, but even though I agree that there will probably be a lot of resources put into creating a vaccine, that doesn't mean there will be one soon. I think one of the unknowns about this is how easy it will be to create a vaccine for this particular virus and how effective it will be when it's done. There are some problems that can't be quickly fixed just by throwing a lot of money at them. 

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Is the age of the Italian population the explanation for the 6.7% death rate in Italy?  Or is there some other reason?

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Will respond to quotes when I have the time, but great, they think it’s in the hospital now and are setting up quarantine testing. FML.

On the shopping note, I go every Monday and Thursday to a smaller high end store. There was nothing unusual Monday. Yesterday was shocking. All the soap, sanitizer, TP and wipes were gone. And so was the water @Ormond.

(okay that’s not 100% true. The overpriced Fiji water was still there)

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Ghjhero said:

Bolsonaro is confirmed to have tested positive with coronavirus

Is it possible we're in the best timeline.

Edited by JEORDHl

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Oh great. The President and CEO of the entire networked just sent a company wide notice that we’re all considered low risk for exposure now.

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11 minutes ago, Ormond said:

 

I don't mean to be depressing either, but even though I agree that there will probably be a lot of resources put into creating a vaccine, that doesn't mean there will be one soon. I think one of the unknowns about this is how easy it will be to create a vaccine for this particular virus and how effective it will be when it's done. There are some problems that can't be quickly fixed just by throwing a lot of money at them. 

Certainly true. Although Israeli scientists seem to think they may already have a vaccine; albeit one that needs to go through an awful lot of testing before its confirmed as safe and effective.

There's also a fast-tracked clinical test of a vaccine already recruiting in the Seattle area; they skipped animal testing and went straight to humans (not sure how they got permission for that). It is a 14-month trial, starting in April, so it's not like it'd be ready this summer, but that's some pretty significant progress.

The Israeli research is using a customizable vaccine that they've been working on for years; which, back in December, they started focusing on how it could be customized to COVID-19. The Moderna Research one is using an artificial replica of the viral RNA rather than using a weak/dead version of the virus. No idea if either will work, I'm no scientist. But both are innovative idea; and I'm sure there's a lot of other innovative ideas, as well as more traditional research, being pursued.

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7 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is the age of the Italian population the explanation for the 6.7% death rate in Italy?  Or is there some other reason?

Question or calling for speculation?

I can only speculate.

Age + quantitative impact on health service quality, are likely the most direct factors. 

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2 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Question or calling for speculation?

I can only speculate.

Age + quantitative impact on health service quality, are likely the most direct factors. 

Both.  Doesn’t Italy have a decent health care system?

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14 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Brave new world on this front.  Maybe better for the gallow-humor thread, but my husband, who is a litigator who does a lot of securities cases/stock drop cases on the defense side thinks he’s going to be REALLY busy (he’s already busy).  

How is that even possible? Certainly there must be case law and precedent to go off of.

And your other gallows joke was better. :P

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2 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Question or calling for speculation?

I can only speculate.

Age + quantitative impact on health service quality, are likely the most direct factors. 

I've read that factors that may contribute to higher fatality in Italy being: age of population, prevalence of smokers, culture of close contact (Italians hug and kiss each other a lot), and a pretty cavalier attitude to the seriousness of the disease in early going.

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Just now, DanteGabriel said:

a pretty cavalier attitude to the seriousness of the disease in early going.

I saw an article where Italians basically said it was mad to expect them them to give up getting a coffee at a cafe or taking a pre-dinner aperitivo in a bar.

They definitely did not take it as seriously as they should be.

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14 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is the age of the Italian population the explanation for the 6.7% death rate in Italy?  Or is there some other reason?

According to a blogger who lives in Milan with her Italian husban and writes articles about the quarantine, it is largely because of their aged population and partly because of how lightly citizens took initial warnings and restrictions. She claimed that many of the critical cases escalated because people waited to seek medical help until it was (Nearly) too late. This is completely unofficial and not scientific information. 

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