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Mlle. Zabzie

Love in the Time of Coronavirus (#3)

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7 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 

Re the EU travel ban. Unless the UK has a ban on mainland EU travel, then I guess the main effect of the ban is to help the UK economy by having a bunch of EU travellers having to go to the UK as the leaving point for their flights to the USA. Or is the ban for anyone with a non-UK European passport?

From what I heard today, even Brits who travelled to the continent are banned until they go through 14 days of isolation. So you'd have to travel to the UK and wait 14 days?

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22 minutes ago, Fez said:

I feel like that would honestly be really good if Ohio did have that many infections, since there aren't reports of mass deaths or overwhelmed ICUs there yet. So it would suggest that the virus is behaving rather mildly.

There's typically a couple of weeks between catching the virus and being hospitalised, and with exponential spread the bulk of that estimate is presumably made up of people still in the incubation stage. If the estimate is correct, expect things to get bad over the next week or two. :(

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25 minutes ago, Fez said:

Fucking hell...

Newsom is way worse at this than the other Governors taking major actions, and that includes Republicans like Mike DeWine in Ohio; who's been a pleasant surprise in how serious and proactive he's been.

Hopefully Americans are being sensible and 1) not travelling out of their home city / town in large numbers, and 2) deciding for themselves to avoid places where large crowds gather. Theoretically in a free and well educated country it should not be necessary to put bans and check points in place to control disease. An informed public should have enough people making the right decisions based purely on advice so that "herd immunity" comes into effect, so that even the idiots who ignore all advice are somewhat protected by most people doing the right thing.

The problem is, with vaccination herd immunity only really kicks in at a very high rate of vaccination (90%+ for a disease like measles for instance). My impression is that without hard bans in place in any country, not just USA, we'd probably be lucky to see 50% of people doing the right thing based on advice alone. A bunch of people are likely to also listen to the wrong advice, say Gwyneth Paltrow telling her Goop followers to just steam their junk before leaving home and they will be protected for 24 hrs (not that this is advice she's given anyone).

The USA might be an interesting involuntary experiment into exactly how the disease will run its course with very few effective control measures being put in place to slow down the spread. There will be a lot of other countries in the same situation because of a lack of an organised or effective govt and limited healthcare, but the USA might be the biggest country where there has at least historically been an organised and somewhat effective govt and good healthcare facilities, albeit difficult to access for a lot of people.

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4 minutes ago, felice said:

There's typically a couple of weeks between catching the virus and being hospitalised, and with exponential spread the bulk of that estimate is presumably made up of people still in the incubation stage. If the estimate is correct, expect things to get bad over the next week or two. :(

Is it that long? I know the 2-week quarantine is to be safe because some people take that long. But I thought most people develop symptoms in 5-6 days, and it's not that long after that for the virus to get from the throat to the lungs; if it's going to get there.

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NHL and MLB following the NBA’s lead. Of course it’s the evil NCAA that’s the last to jump.

For the people outside of the U.S., the NCAA is the only sports entity that can rival FIFA when it comes to sheer evilness.

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One of the local universities has now gone to online teaching effective from Monday. And the uni I went to for undergrad has announced that assessments for law students will be done by students in a limited time frame and handed back in. Need to read more because I don't fully know what happening there

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20 minutes ago, Buckwheat said:

You can, they are funny. But I am not sure which ones are Polish and which ones are Czech/Slovak.

My apologies for the thread derail, everybody.

Bolek i Lolek is Polish. I didn’t realise Pat and Mat had names, they’re only known as Neighbours in Poland!

 

All schools closed in Luxembourg and all non-critical EU Commission staff is to telework starting Monday.

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first case in the next suburb along from mine, where I go shopping etc, although I have just switched to ordering online and picking up.

my husband got new glasses the other day. They told him they only had the frames on display, they cannot get any more and will close when they run out.

on tv right now they are debating whether to close various mass events.

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11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

NHL and MLB following the NBA’s lead. Of course it’s the evil NCAA that’s the last to jump.

For the people outside of the U.S., the NCAA is the only sports entity that can rival FIFA when it comes to sheer evilness.

I was hoping that when Kansas joined Duke in pulling out, they would capitulate, but alas....

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35 minutes ago, Fez said:

I feel like that would honestly be really good if Ohio did have that many infections, since there aren't reports of mass deaths or overwhelmed ICUs there yet. So it would suggest that the virus is behaving rather mildly.

I don't know how to square that with what's going on in Italy or Iran though, which would suggest that there should be well over 1,000 Ohioans in critically ill condition with an infection rate that high.

Theoretically in a fairly healthy country with decent healthcare we should see South Korea-like fatality rates. So if Ohio is lucky enough to have those features a 120K infection rate should "only" see 840 deaths if they have South Korea case fatality rates. Currently, using official figures the US CFR is about 2.8%, but that will not be the true CFR since there will be massive under-reporting of the disease with how few diagnostic tests are being carried out. Though if Ohio is a microcosm of the USA as a whole, then 38 deaths nation wide is a stupidly low number, which probably means under-diagnoses, and hence under-reporting of deaths.

With co-morbidities, which is probably where most fatalities are coming from, and not just age, it's quite possible that people will die from co-morbidity complications than from the disease itself. So, if say an asthmatic dies from a massive asthma attack while being moderately sick from undiagnosed Covid-19, then there is a reasonable chance cause of death will be recorded as asthma attack and no testing for coronavirus will be carried out. Theoretically all CoDs that could be coronavirus related should be subject to a post mortem coronavirus test. But to put that in place the relevant regulations would have to be enacted to make it legally binding on medical practitioners, coroners etc.

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5 hours ago, Fez said:

In a tiny bit of lighter news,

Also, good to see that he is apparently able to be up and about on his own.

Hilarious, but the betoota advocate is a satirical news site. Australia's equivalent of the Onion.

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1 hour ago, Buckwheat said:

 

I am partial to that "elbow nod" Pat and Mat tend to do (just the last part of the gif, I cannot find one where they don't shake hands first).

 

 

That reminds me of the growl and fist pump that Captain Shakespeare (Robert De Niro) and his crew use to salute each other in the movie Stardust.

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16 minutes ago, Fez said:

Is it that long? I know the 2-week quarantine is to be safe because some people take that long. But I thought most people develop symptoms in 5-6 days, and it's not that long after that for the virus to get from the throat to the lungs; if it's going to get there.

Disney is closing it's park in California, I expect more to follow. Perhaps the Governor was asked by Disney to hold off while they made arrangements and sent emails?

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I'm in the Netherlands. The government has banned alll gatherings and events which are attended by more more than 100 individuals,, and ordered the closure of all museums and theatres. Universities and colleges are closing down too, but they must provide their classes online. The government also asked people to work at home, avoid large groups, and limit all travel to the absolute minimum. 

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2 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Hilarious, but the betoota advocate is a satirical news site. Australia's equivalent of the Onion.

Even though that is satirical fake news, the question is, why hasn't someone done this already for real?

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14 minutes ago, Fez said:

Is it that long? I know the 2-week quarantine is to be safe because some people take that long. But I thought most people develop symptoms in 5-6 days, and it's not that long after that for the virus to get from the throat to the lungs; if it's going to get there.

Apparently, the median time between first symptom and hospitalisation is 7 days. And that's on top of the incubation period before the first symptom. So presumably the symptoms get worse gradually.

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NCAA canceled.

The mother of one of my closest friends passed today.  I just found out.  It was not corona-related (she had a massive stroke some time ago, and had been in declining health.  However, she now has to think about funeral arrangements etc.  Westchester county.  Awful.

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22 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Hilarious, but the betoota advocate is a satirical news site. Australia's equivalent of the Onion.

Ah. That's a shame. I think a lot of blue checkmark US journalists on Twitter were not aware.

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Today I asked my principal whether we have a plan for homeschooling during a conference. She said we don't...

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58 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Hmmm, distended belly is a symptom of hyperadrenocorticism (too much cortisol in your system), it's normally a kind of permanent state with that condition, but it could initially manifest as distension when there is increased abdominal pressure, such as due to having just eaten. Basically the high amount of cortisol over a long period of time causes weakening of the abdominal muscles. In an unmedicated animal that can have a few causes that you would not like. But in an animal that has had long term steroid use for other problems the steroid treatment can mimic the symptoms. I assume the steroid treatment is anti-imflammatory corticosteroid, and not an anabolic, it typically is for long term disc problems that aren't going to be surgically corrected. Of course I can't diagnose anything over the internet so you should see your vet. But if it is basically a medically induced hyperadrenocorticism, as I suspect it might be, there's not a lot that can be done, because long term steroid treatment is about the only non-surgical option for your dog's disc problems.

Oh, goodness, I would never have thought of that. Thank you so much for sharing your professional insight! I honestly have no idea what kind of steroid treatment it was, I trust the vet chose whichever is suitable to treat his disc problems. I will ask if this might be a side affect of his treatment. 

52 minutes ago, Buckwheat said:

You can, they are funny. But I am not sure which ones are Polish and which ones are Czech/Slovak.

My apologies for the thread derail, everybody.

Please don’t apologize, I think this thread really needs a bit of positive morale, and why shouldn’t that come in the shape of socialist cartoons? 
Little Mole, Cippolino, anybody?

38 minutes ago, Fez said:

Is it that long? I know the 2-week quarantine is to be safe because some people take that long. But I thought most people develop symptoms in 5-6 days, and it's not that long after that for the virus to get from the throat to the lungs; if it's going to get there.

This is what I keep hearing as well. 

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