US Politics: Time to Stock Up

[Mlle. Zabzie]

35 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

On second thought, just suspend them and the campaigns until June. Most experts I’ve heard say this will be a 60-90 day cycle if everything goes mostly right. 90 days from now is mid-June, and that would still leave plenty of time to get the votes in. If we’re not in a good place by mid-June, Idk how you can running a functioning primary with actual turnout, and there’s probably no way you could hold legit conventions.

I’ve personally soft-circled Memorial Day as best case scenario here.  So mid-June sounds do-able.  And I’m in a state where we seem to have proactive leadership, so I think it is reasonable to hold out cautious hope.

[Fez]

34 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

On second thought, just suspend them and the campaigns until June. Most experts I’ve heard say this will be a 60-90 day cycle if everything goes mostly right. 90 days from now is mid-June, and that would still leave plenty of time to get the votes in. If we’re not in a good place by mid-June, Idk how you can running a functioning primary with actual turnout, and there’s probably no way you could hold legit conventions.

I think that 60-90 day thing is more if everything goes right. Which I don't have faith in yet. Although I don't know if things can stay shut down longer than that; even though might need to be.

Also, the answer here is really simple (but apparently not doable): every state implement vote-by-mail like Washington.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I’ve personally soft-circled Memorial Day as best case scenario here.  So mid-June sounds do-able.  And I’m in a state where we seem to have proactive leadership, so I think it is reasonable to hold out cautious hope.

Delaying it creates an interesting wrinkle. I heard a sports hot take yesterday that I didn't even consider. Two teams clearly benefited from the suspension of the NBA season. The Nets and the Sixers are both playoff teams, but each team has an all-star that's projected to miss the rest of the season. If the playoffs are pushed back 2-3 months, there's a decent chance each could make it back. Likewise, the Democratic primary was all but over as of Tuesday evening. However, delaying everything for a few months could change everything. Say Biden gets sick, wouldn't that lead a lot of people to go for Bernie. Or perhaps a nation wide medical scare makes M4A more appealing, and gives it months to sink in.

Just some food for thought.

4 minutes ago, Fez said:

I think that 60-90 day thing is more if everything goes right. Which I don't have faith in yet. Although I don't know if things can stay shut down longer than that; even though might need to be.

Also, the answer here is really simple (but apparently not doable): every state implement vote-by-mail like Washington.

Yeah, that's probably right, but I would like to believe it can be done if Trump just shuts up and goes away. I'm personally not scared at all. I'm 31, fit and healthy with no history of medical issues outside of sports injuries. But I have old parents, and my step-dad is not the healthiest guy. I'd be devastated if I infected either my mom or step-dad, and like I said in the other thread, the hospital I work at now has confirmed cases in the system.

To your second point, sure, in a perfect world, but it's not going to happen in most places and I'm not sure if it could even be done in just a few months.    

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Fez said:

I think that 60-90 day thing is more if everything goes right. Which I don't have faith in yet. Although I don't know if things can stay shut down longer than that; even though might need to be.

I'm in this camp. 2-3 months will be a best-case scenario. I'm thinking more 120-180 days.

[mcbigski]

Really five hours since the last post?  How am I supposed to stoke my righteous rage?!

Kind of wonder how much of the 20 minute rally at the end of the market was day was shorts covering before the weekend.  Tbh Trump sounded more stressed than usual to me so I don't think it moved on his folksy eloquence.

[DMC]

I'm totally not just citing this article because I'm insanely proud my friends got published in WaPo, even if they get too drunk at conferences and need to sleep in my hotel room:  If Biden wins the nomination, will Sanders supporters vote for him?

Quote

Trump supporters: loyal but swayable

Our first experiment in 2016 revealed that Trump supporters were indeed more loyal to him than other Republican primary voters were to other candidates. The figure below shows the percentage of Republicans who said they would leave their favorite candidate to support someone with a better chance of winning. When confronted with the strategic dilemma we gave them (left side of the figure), only 26 percent of Trump voters opted to change their vote to support someone more electable. On average, 55 percent of people who supported other Republican candidates did so.

Trump's rhetoric does encourage open prejudice and bias. We checked.

However, many Trump supporters were open to switching candidates if specifically reminded which parties would likely win and lose should he be nominated. When Trump supporters were told that nominating him would either increase the chances that the Democratic Party would win the 2016 election (center) or hurt the Republican Party’s chances of winning (right), they too were often willing to abandon their first choice to help the party. [...]

Sanders supporters are unlikely to be persuaded by electability arguments

These results are consistent with recent exit polling in New Hampshire, Super Tuesday states and Michigan — which showed that Sanders supporters are more concerned about choosing a candidate with similar policy views than a candidate who is the most electable. Other Democratic candidates’ supporters cared more about nominating someone who can defeat Trump than sticking someone with whom they share similar policy goals — which may explain the sudden tilt to supporting Biden that we’re seeing in recent primary elections.

Here’s what Democrats may wish to keep in mind. While Biden and other Democrats continue to emphasize electability in justifying his nomination, many Sanders supporters are not likely to respond to such appeals. In 2016, many Trump primary voters were poised to come back to the party if their top candidate did not secure his party’s nomination. We found little evidence that Sanders supporters would be as willing to do so in 2020.

That may usually be too much to quote, but Jarrod and Eric can eat it, they both owe me.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

8 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Really five hours since the last post?  How am I supposed to stoke my righteous rage?!

Kind of wonder how much of the 20 minute rally at the end of the market was day was shorts covering before the weekend.  Tbh Trump sounded more stressed than usual to me so I don't think it moved on his folksy eloquence.

I think it moved for the reason you suggested plus the reports that Pelosi and Mnuchin has a deal. If Moscow Mitch pushes it through the Senate promptly Monday then I think we have 24 hours of stability or at least only instability caused by other information. If he whines and grandstands it will be off 5-10 percent and might trip the circuit again.  

[OldGimletEye]

Please lefties, put down Marx for a few and pick up Bagehot.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21178457/1-5-trillion-stimulus-loan-fed-federal-reserve

[Fragile Bird]

Another hybrid Covid-19/politics post.

I see that the CDC has taken down it’s web page that reported how many tests were conducted per day.

Of course, the page was being mocked by many. Showing 0 tests had been performed by the CDC (8 by private testers) one day this week certainly did not help. But just exactly how are we supposed to know how many tests have been performed each day in the US? From reports served up by the White House? Every other country is reporting what they are doing.

’We are doing so incredibly well’ said the Orange one. Right.

[mcbigski]

Read somewhere that the CDC and FDA were in a turf war over who was approving what testing.  Sure they have some ancillary responsibilities right now too, but nice to see them not taking their eyes off the ultimate prize of increased future funding.  Sounds truthy.

[Fragile Bird]

48 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Read somewhere that the CDC and FDA were in a turf war over who was approving what testing.  Sure they have some ancillary responsibilities right now too, but nice to see them not taking their eyes off the ultimate prize of increased future funding.  Sounds truthy.

No no no!

It was Obama's fault!

[Martell Spy]

Does Donald Trump Have the Coronavirus?
The well-being of our hardworking president is too important to take for granted.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/does-donald-trump-have-the-new-coronavirus.html

Quote

When could Trump have potentially contracted the virus?
On March 7, it was announced that an attendee at the Conservative Political Action Conference had tested positive for the new coronavirus. What’s more, this wasn’t just any normal attendee. This person was at least high-profile enough to have come into direct contact with lawmakers Ted Cruz, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, and Doug Collins, as well as American Conservative Union president Matt Schlapp. Schlapp has since self-quarantined, but not before introducing Trump and greeting him with a firm, prolonged handshake.

 

[Fragile Bird]

13 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Does Donald Trump Have the Coronavirus?
The well-being of our hardworking president is too important to take for granted.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/does-donald-trump-have-the-new-coronavirus.html

 

I'm watching CNN right now. They are waiting for the Covid-19 update press conference. Every reporter had to have their temperature taken before they were allowed in the room where the press conference is taking place. One reporter was refused entrance because their temperature was 99.9, out of "an abundance of caution".

I wonder if all WH employees are having their temperatures taken. Except Trump.

[Fragile Bird]

My God, listening to Trump give a press conference just hurts your head, he says so many things that are half-truths, if not outright lies, while sticking knives in. The virus from China. The economy is in great shape, all our foreign trade. Both exports and imports fell in 2019.

I could not keep up with the bs, I'd have to get a video of it and make notes.

And then bragging about the effect on the stock market! "We should do that 5 times a day!" Honey, unless you start delivering test kits that won't work twice. His obsession with the stock market is never-ending!

It sounds like Jerome Powell's job is really on the brink. His other huge obsession, once again, is with negative interest rates. Can no one in his fucking government explain to him what negative interest rates are? He likes to brag that the US economy is doing much, much better than the economy in Europe. When is the penny going to drop?

Oh, he finally took the test last night, all while issuing a WH doctor's letter saying he was showing no signs so he didn't need a test. Why did he not issue a statement instead, even a nice sucky one, saying something like "so many Americans have expressed concern about my health I have decided to take the test" instead of making a bad example and issuing that doctor's letter? So his supporters won't ask for a test and the government will save money?

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

My God, listening to Trump give a press conference just hurts your head, he says so many things that are half-truths, if not outright lies, while sticking knives in. The virus from China. The economy is in great shape, all our foreign trade. Both exports and imports fell in 2019.

I could not keep up with the bs, I'd have to get a video of it and make notes.

And then bragging about the effect on the stock market! "We should do that 5 times a day!" Honey, unless you start delivering test kits that won't work twice. His obsession with the stock market is never-ending!

It sounds like Jerome Powell's job is really on the brink. His other huge obsession, once again, is with negative interest rates. Can no one in his fucking government explain to him what negative interest rates are? He likes to brag that the US economy is doing much, much better than the economy in Europe. When is the penny going to drop?

Oh, he finally took the test last night, all while issuing a WH doctor's letter saying he was showing no signs so he didn't need a test. Why did he not issue a statement instead, even a nice sucky one, saying something like "so many Americans have expressed concern about my health I have decided to take the test" instead of making a bad example and issuing that doctor's letter? So his supporters won't ask for a test and the government will save money?

I'm getting more and more scared the more he talks. He still has no grasp of the severity of the situation. There is still no more information available today than there was yesterday.

Maybe, some Republicans in Congress are starting to grasp the shape of the severity of the situation, but...it's an election year, so anyone up for election will be inclined to ride the President's coattails.

It all really comes down to how truly loyal is Trump's base when the shit starts hitting the fan. I mean, they'll stay on board when the economy is gangbusters and he's owning the libs, but will they stay on board when they start losing their jobs and their loved ones are dying? If they act like electorates of the past, they'll bail on Trump, Republican Senators will run away from him, effective measures will get put in place, and this will get bad, but not catastrophic.

I'm worried however, that one way or another, they'll stick with him. The knock-on effects of this may be delayed somewhat. I work in due diligence for CMBS loan servicers, and the emergency 1/2 point rate cut will keep us busy for at least a few months; our management is still actively hiring, and we honestly need the bodies (luckily my company is taking this extremely seriously). Private companies are proactively stepping up to figure out how to pay furloughed hourly employees (because they know how close things are to their employees thinking that "eat the rich" might sound pretty good in a couple of months). It may be enough to blunt the economic cost temporarily.

But unless there is a pro-active demand-side stimulus put into effect soon, and/or unless Trump does an about face and starts taking this seriously now, business will continue more-or-less as usual until it's too late.

[ThinkerX]

This came up elsewhere, and I'm too lazy to look into it at the moment, but...

 

...the claim is, should the general election be canceled for whatever reason, the Constitution mandates the Speaker of the House (Pelosi, in this case) becomes president.

 

Is that right?

 

And if it is, how big of a temper tantrum does Team Trump throw?

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

So, I have an acquaintance who works in the portion of the Pentagon that governs Military Police.  Apparently, if things in the US get as bad as Italy there is a plan in place to impose some form of Martial Law.

 

[Spockydog]

Eek. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

35 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

This came up elsewhere, and I'm too lazy to look into it at the moment, but...

 

...the claim is, should the general election be canceled for whatever reason, the Constitution mandates the Speaker of the House (Pelosi, in this case) becomes president.

 

Is that right?

 

And if it is, how big of a temper tantrum does Team Trump throw?

 

Basis for that?  It’s not textual as far as I know.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

54 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

This came up elsewhere, and I'm too lazy to look into it at the moment, but...

 

...the claim is, should the general election be canceled for whatever reason, the Constitution mandates the Speaker of the House (Pelosi, in this case) becomes president.

 

Is that right?

 

And if it is, how big of a temper tantrum does Team Trump throw?

 

Accordint to the leading legal source on the net.

Yes.