Shadow Assasinations

[Bobity.]

The shadows spawned by Melisandre with the blood of Stannis were very effective in conducting the anonymous assassinations of Ser Cortnay Penrose and Renley Baratheon. Two methods are demonstrated, pushing/throwing a victim from heights with appearance of suicide and shadowy sword attacks implicating innocents in close proximity.  By all accounts the pair got away with the murders, but Varys is onto them.

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"Ser Cortnay had challenged Lord Stannis to single combat on the morning he died. I ask you, is this the act of a man lost to despair? Then there is the matter of Lord Renly's mysterious and most fortuitous murder, even as his battle lines were forming up to sweep his brother from the field." - A Clash of Kings - Tyrion X

Varys knew to connect the pattern, he had identified Mel as a shadowbinder early.

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“Oh, Varys hears his whispers. Stannis is building ships, Stannis is hiring sellswords, Stannis is bringing a shadowbinder from Asshai.” - A Game of Thrones - Tyrion IX

Spawning shadows is not a skill unique to Mel, as shadowbinders are open and active in Asshai. Begs to question if there has been other shadowbinders active in Westeros?  Why not? The marine route to and from Asshai can be done along the sight of land and considering Storm’s End walls were built warded against shadows...I think the Age of Heroes was a little bit magicy.

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“Storm's End is an old place. There are spells woven into the stones. Dark walls that no shadow can pass—ancient, forgotten, yet still in place.” - A Clash of Kings - Davos II

When in history then? The details of the murder of Septon Moon outside of Oldtown jumped out at me on the first reading of Fire and Blood.

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“But then, suddenly, there was a groan, and a women's shriek, followed by a bellow of rage.  The tent flap was thrown open and the woman burst out, half-naked and barefoot, and dashed away wide-eyed and terrified before any of the Poor Fellows could think to stop her. Septon Moon himself followed a moment later, naked, roaring, and drenched in blood.  He was holding his neck, and blood was leaking between his fingers and dripping down his beard from where his throat had been slit open.” F&B - Prince into King

I believe the unknown women in the tent with Septon Moon got the same wrongful murder accusation Brienne of Tarth and Catelyn Stark received. Whatever intentions the women bedding down with Septon Moon had, I don’t believe cutting him was part of it as she was totally unprepared for it. She was barefoot and half naked, if you were planning to murder someone and then run away would you not plan to be wearing shoes and clothes? She shrieked. If you are planning to murder someone and then run away, would you not be quiet? Though, I suppose Brienne made the same mistake in the minds of her accusers.

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“Your Gr-no!” cried Brienne the Blue when she saw that evil flow, sounding as scared as any little girl. -  A Clash of Kings - Catelyn IV 

If this woman had slit Septon Moon’s throat would she not be covered in blood? This woman was running “wide eyed and terrified” from something, and I don’t believe it was from a dying Septon Moon.  The quick acting poisoned wine was given to her so her account of a shadow sword was never heard.

If it was a spawned shadow that killed Septon Moon, who would have done the deed? Who had most to gain from the death of Septon Moon?  The Hightowers. The Hightowers had been dithering on dealing with the Moon’s mob outside Oldtown and were probably open to options.  After the death of Septon Moon his followers scattered allowing for a one sided Hightower mop up and an unhurt Oldtown citizenry.

Let's think like Varys for a moment, if there was a shadowbinder active at the time are there other suspicious deaths where people are dying in rooms everyone thought them to be alone in?  Do they have connections to the Hightowers?  

Found two more within a five year period:

The High Septon - died in very suspicious circumstances alone in his room. No details about the manner of death and followed was a very immediate chain of events for his replacement. In my mind the killing of the High Septon was part of the coordinated Hightower plan, not a response. If the High Septon had not been murdered and replaced in a single night then in all likelihood dragonfire would have been felt in Oldtown.  There was motivation.
  
King Maegor Targaryen - died impaled on the Iron Throne, guards swear he was alone.  Maegor at that moment was contemplating the reality that he did not have enough support to field an army to control his realm, but Balerion was within reach.  At that moment mounting the Black Dread and burning it all, including Oldtown, was a distinct possibility. The list of people with motive to kill Maegor were many, Hightowers included.

All three of these deaths had a result of limiting civilian casualties, particularly in Oldtown. As to who spawned my theorized shadows I am leaning towards Lady Patrice Hightower, reputed witch who had visited the High Septon hours before his mysterious death. The first of the proposed linked incidents.

Common variable amongst all known and proposed examples of shadow assassinations is timing, all five died at night.

Renly Baratheon

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"I dream of it sometimes. Of Renly's dying. A green tent, candles, a woman screaming. And blood." Stannis looked down at his hands. "I was still abed when he died. Your Devan will tell you. He tried to wake me. Dawn was nigh and my lords were waiting, fretting. - A Clash of Kings - Davos II

Ser Cortnay Penrose

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Davos licked his lips. "I am yours to command. What would you have me do?" "Nothing you have not done before. Only land a boat beneath the castle, unseen, in the black of night." - A Clash of Kings - Davos II

High Septon

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Sometime during the blackest hour of that long and dreadful night, the High Septon had died. F&B - The Sons of the Dragon

Maegor Targaryen

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Hours later, as dawn was breaking, the last of Maegor’s queens came seeking him. - F&B - The Sons of the Dragon

Septon Moon

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Dusk was falling outside of Oldtown when Septon Moon retired for his tent. - F&B - Prince into King

If the walls of Storms End are warded against spawned shadows then at some point during the Age of Heroes the Durrandon Storm Kings built those defenses to protect from a shadowbinding foe, an age when the Hightowers were actors.  Could shadowbinding be a Hightower family secret, only used in times when Oldtown is in grave danger? Euron may need to watch for shadows at his back as he approaches Oldtown…because whenever Oldtown is threatened convenient deaths occur when the sun goes down.

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“Lord Leyton's locked atop his tower with the Mad Maid, consulting books of spells” - A Feast for Crows - Samwell V

Bonus Extra Shiny Tinfoil

Are there other potential shadow assassinations in Westerosi history?  Mysterious sword attacks, or people falling from great heights with questionable stories of suicide. Was Ashara pushed?
 

[Frey family reunion]

Well done, I'm convinced.

 

[Megorova]

Could be that the shadowbinder that killed the High Septon and Septon Moon was Tyanna of the Tower (the timing fits).

[Moiraine Sedai]

Nice theory. The Shadowbinder that we know, Mel, is a disciple of the fire worshippers. Maybe there is a connection between fire, light, and shadow. It would mean the wall was probably warded to keep out the shadows. 

[szbszig]

Although your observations are interesting, and I really like your theory about House Hightower being connected to these dark arts, I felt you were carrying things too far at certain points. Not all mysterious deaths are necessarily shadow assassinations. A regular assassin can also do the work in most of the cases, and, if skilled enough, he can even make it look like a suicide, or that other people are blamed for the murder. And we have quite a few skilled assassins in the world, starting with the Faceless Men...

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, szbszig said:

Although your observations are interesting, and I really like your theory about House Hightower being connected to these dark arts, I felt you were carrying things too far at certain points. Not all mysterious deaths are necessarily shadow assassinations. A regular assassin can also do the work in most of the cases, and, if skilled enough, he can even make it look like a suicide, or that other people are blamed for the murder. And we have quite a few skilled assassins in the world, starting with the Faceless Men...

Sure that's possible, and some of the assassinations could be run of the mill or the work of the Faceless Men, but the OP brought up a possibility that frankly had not occurred to me, that shadowbinders may have been involved.  It's definitely buttressed by the fact that so many of those assassination occurred at night (like Melisandre's) and a number of suspects were seemingly cleared because they were seen leaving the presence of the victim while the victim still lived.

I do wonder if there has to be initial contact with the target of your assassination first.  Wasn't Melisandre in the presence of both Renly and Penrose prior to their murders?  And if not, Stannis definitely was.

ETA: Yes, I checked Melisandre was in direct presence with both and spoke to both of them (veiled threats) the day prior to their night time assassinations.

[szbszig]

58 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I do wonder if there has to be initial contact with the target of your assassination first.  Wasn't Melisandre in the presence of both Renly and Penrose prior to their murders?  And if not, Stannis definitely was.

ETA: Yes, I checked Melisandre was in direct presence with both and spoke to both of them (veiled threats) the day prior to their night time assassinations.

Now, that's an interesting addition...