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COVID19/4 Keep calm and wash your hands


Which Tyler

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27 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

You have to understand that’s 22,000 deaths because about 50 M people caught the flu. If 50 M people get Covid-19 you’re looking at 1.5 million to 2.5 M deaths, in large part because there are only 900,000 hospital beds in the US and a tiny percentage are ICU beds. Plus you can add thousands of more deaths from people who had a crisis and there was no bed, no doctor, or no operating table available.

As for symptoms, when they say ‘mild’ that covers everything below ‘needed hospitalization’. It can range from ‘I didn’t even know I had it’ to ‘I was so sick in bed alone in my apartment I thought I was going to die’.

Covid-19 hits the lungs. People might end up with scarred lungs that will result in long-term health problems.

I guess the reason I'm having a hard time conceptualizing the nature of the problem, is that we're dealing with something we don't really have a good grip on.  (Which I assume is why it's so important to being draconian now).

I mean the fatality rate is kind of dependent on whether we have a good grasp of the number of people that have actually come down with the virus.  The problem is that we haven't had any real testing for this virus until fairly recently so we don't know just how many people have had it.  And the majority of those tested are people who have had to receive hospitalization because of their symptoms.  So when our numbers start increasing rapidly, is it because of the spread of the virus or is it because of the increase in the actual number of testing done for the virus?

If a number of people have tested positive for the virus have shown little to no symptoms, presumably a much, much larger number of people have never sought any medical treatment for it, and they aren't currently being counted as people who have tested positive for the virus despite the fact that they probably have it.

For example about three maybe four weeks ago, my wife got pretty sick.  High fever not feeling well, so she assumed she had the flu.  Went to see the doctor but they told her she tested negative for the flu and negative for some other common viruses.  But of course she wasn't tested for this virus.  She started to feel better afterwards but maintained a persistent pretty bad dry cough.  Her symptoms mirrored what I've been reading about the symptoms of this cold.  Is it possible that she's had/has the virus?  I don't know because she's never been tested for it.

They've so far only tested about 140 or so people in Louisiana.  Out of those tested about 50 have tested positive for the virus.  That's more than a third of the people they've tested.  If we've had large number of testing we'd probably come to the conclusion that a much larger number of people already have the virus currently that we don't realize

Now obviously that's bad news in a way.  But if you want to look at the glass half full, then you could also argue that if there's a huge amount of cases that we don't know about, then the fatality rate of the virus isn't quite as high as we are currently assuming.

I don't think it's the fatality rate that's really the concern, though.  Personally I think that what's worrying many government officials is the huge strain this virus is going to put on our health care infrastructure, a greater strain than it's probably equipped to handle right now.

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1 hour ago, polishgenius said:

I keep seeing people bring this sort of thing up and it's like...

 

Three and a half thousand deaths out of eighty thousand cases is a lot. The whole point of all the extreme measures is so that we don't end up with the same 40-odd million cases that those 22,000 flu fatalities came from because the deaths would then be closer to the millions.

I suppose like I stated above, my suspicion is that there are a lot more than eighty thousand cases in China.  Eighty thousand only encompasses those that have been tested positive for it.

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Look, I have a good friend whose spouse is an ER doctor in a large midwestern city.  She is usually unflappable.  She's literally seen it all.  She is freaking the eff out.  She works at two hospitals - one is a research hospital downtown attached to a university.  That one is prepared.  They have done drills, and have freed up bed space where they can, ordered more ventilators (and have a bunch on hand anyhow, but want more already in progress so that when things get bad hopefully they will have been delivered), have protocols etc. in place.  The other is in the suburbs.  It is not ready.  Staff are not taking it seriously.  They haven't done drills, ordered equipment or anything.  She thinks she saw 4-5 covid patients the other day there but couldn't get tests.  She's self-isolating for the near future.  She probably won't see her kids again until summer.  This is reality.

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16 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I suspect this will make remote meetings more difficult 

I don't know their infrastructure, but it's likely cloud based and they can just provision more to handle the added load. It may just take time to deal with the work of catching up with the added demand.

By the by, Sweden has had 4 deaths today, bringing our total to 7. Pretty expected. All 7 have been older people, I believe.

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Canada has closed it’s borders to non-citizens and non-residents, with the exception of diplomats, flight crews and Americans.

Why are we letting in Americans? Because the level of integration in our economies is so huge. Apparently this has been co-ordinated with the US. 90% of our population lives within an hour or two of the border. Forty million cross-border visits by Canadians and 25 M by Americans happen every year. Many Canadians living in border cities work in the US. Michigan would be badly hit, for example, if medical personnel were stopped from crossing the border.

However, the Prime Minister also said that decision will be reassessed if necessary.

Our province has added 130 nurses to answer the telehealth line.

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A further point - there is very high concern about the British Columbia - Washington state border because of Washington looking so out of control, and now about all the Ontario - New York State border crossings. Many Covid-19 cases in Canada are coming from Canadians who are returning from the US.

Just as an example. So far to date Canada has done 25,000 tests. The US, with 10x the population, has conducted 23,000 tests.

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Here is a (very small) piece of "good news":  I have seen more than one "request for information" (RFI) go around my firm asking how a large employer could go about setting up an employee relief fund.  This means that at least SOME employers are trying (yes, yes, yes, (1) they shouldn't have to, (2) maybe they should pay more/differently, but (3) given our system they also don't have to do anything, and at least some are).

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So... it seems like I have spent most of the day hunting for groceries. Forget my hopes that things might settle after two days of panic buying! Out there is still a bloody battlefield!

Toilet paper gone. Kitchen rolls gone. Canned tomatos and tomato puree gone. Rice gone. Pasta still bravely standing here and there. Milk gone (even fresh milk!?). Flour gone. Yeast gone. For some reason even eggs gone. How are you supposed to hoard those?

In the middle of all that I saw an old lady with a walker mumbling something about the war...

Two hours after arriving back home I read that a car overturned itself in the parking area of one of the supermarkets I was at, with several people severely injured. What the fuck is wrong with people?

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Had to run out for milk and eggs last night.  And chicken Taquitos... 

We were good on milk/eggs.  Grabbed the last box of frozen Taquitos.  (My step daughter was grateful.)  Its a good thing I didn't need packaged meat or lunchables though, those were long gone.  :lol: 

ETA:  Also, just saw that Idris Elba has tested positive.

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Sheeeeeeeit! Our beloved Bistro / our local,  got broken into – crow barred off the metal gates and stole all the computer systems and electronic equipment.  It’s on video though, and they see the guy.  I didn’t expect this to start so soon.  Or maybe at all.  

This sure seems specifically  targeted though.  I don't forget those guys who tried to rob the Bistro's cash register, and got good and stopped by the owner Brothers,  and the guy who tried to strong arm Owner's wife into giving him cash that night.  I was present and standing at their back both times.  Criminals the first two, and druggie the second one -- and criminal too.

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3 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Sheeeeeeeit! Our beloved Bistro / our local,  got broken into – crow barred off the metal gates and stole all the computer systems and electronic equipment.  It’s on video though, and they see the guy.  I didn’t expect this to start so soon.  Or maybe at all.  

This sure seems specifically  targeted though.  I don't forget those guys who tried to rob the Bistro's cash register, and got good and stopped by the owner Brothers,  and the guy who tried to strong arm Owner's wife into giving him cash that night.  I was present and standing at their back both times.  Criminals the first two, and druggie the second one -- and criminal too.

Hope they get the thief.

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1 hour ago, Toth said:

So... it seems like I have spent most of the day hunting for groceries. Forget my hopes that things might settle after two days of panic buying! Out there is still a bloody battlefield!

Toilet paper gone. Kitchen rolls gone. Canned tomatos and tomato puree gone. Rice gone. Pasta still bravely standing here and there. Milk gone (even fresh milk!?). Flour gone. Yeast gone. For some reason even eggs gone. How are you supposed to hoard those?

In the middle of all that I saw an old lady with a walker mumbling something about the war...

Two hours after arriving back home I read that a car overturned itself in the parking area of one of the supermarkets I was at, with several people severely injured. What the fuck is wrong with people?

At least Germany closes Frontiers! Lol

Spain will try one day. Once every single country has closed theirs. 

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Weirdest day ever. Multiple sources warned me that Macron would declare a full lockdown tonight so I rushed my family out of Paris to our country house. Even saw pics of military units moving on the capital  (sent by a friend, not a random internet guy). When did my life become a goddamn apocalyptic movie?

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This ends with Amazon fully entrenched as the dominant megacorp of the future.

On plus side, hopefully at least some of the people losing their jobs now can get hired; its office, warehouse, and delivery jobs they're looking for. The full gamut.

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2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I guess the reason I'm having a hard time conceptualizing the nature of the problem, is that we're dealing with something we don't really have a good grip on.  (Which I assume is why it's so important to being draconian now).

I mean the fatality rate is kind of dependent on whether we have a good grasp of the number of people that have actually come down with the virus.  The problem is that we haven't had any real testing for this virus until fairly recently so we don't know just how many people have had it.  And the majority of those tested are people who have had to receive hospitalization because of their symptoms.  So when our numbers start increasing rapidly, is it because of the spread of the virus or is it because of the increase in the actual number of testing done for the virus?

If a number of people have tested positive for the virus have shown little to no symptoms, presumably a much, much larger number of people have never sought any medical treatment for it, and they aren't currently being counted as people who have tested positive for the virus despite the fact that they probably have it.

For example about three maybe four weeks ago, my wife got pretty sick.  High fever not feeling well, so she assumed she had the flu.  Went to see the doctor but they told her she tested negative for the flu and negative for some other common viruses.  But of course she wasn't tested for this virus.  She started to feel better afterwards but maintained a persistent pretty bad dry cough.  Her symptoms mirrored what I've been reading about the symptoms of this cold.  Is it possible that she's had/has the virus?  I don't know because she's never been tested for it.

They've so far only tested about 140 or so people in Louisiana.  Out of those tested about 50 have tested positive for the virus.  That's more than a third of the people they've tested.  If we've had large number of testing we'd probably come to the conclusion that a much larger number of people already have the virus currently that we don't realize

Now obviously that's bad news in a way.  But if you want to look at the glass half full, then you could also argue that if there's a huge amount of cases that we don't know about, then the fatality rate of the virus isn't quite as high as we are currently assuming.

I don't think it's the fatality rate that's really the concern, though.  Personally I think that what's worrying many government officials is the huge strain this virus is going to put on our health care infrastructure, a greater strain than it's probably equipped to handle right now.

This is way worse that the flu.  When left unchecked for just two to three months, it can quickly put enough people into the hospitals that it collapses the medical system, and that's when you see the mortality rate spike to over 5% or so.  There's a good reason why China put hundreds of millions under lockdown and Italy has locked down the entire country.  Every country deals with the flu every year, and this is clearly not that.

The idea that there are huge numbers of infected but asymptomatic patients so it isn't really that bad is just wishful thinking.  The best available data on this may be the cases from the Princess Cruise ship, where everyone was tested.  A paper was published in early March about the Princess cruise data.  Around 600 of the 3700 passengers tested positive for the disease, with about half at the time of testing showing no symptoms.  So far 6 people have died, meaning 1% of the total infected or 2% of the infected with symptoms have died.  The passengers do skew towards the older end though.  This establishes some baselines, with the caveat that it's possible that some of the asymptomatic patients eventually developed symptoms after the data was collected for the study and that some additional patients may die later.  However, from this data, it appears that around half of the infected may not show symptoms.  If you want to try accounting for this population of patients, you could divide some of the numbers you hear in the news by two.  This doesn't really change all that much though.

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Some people are still very much in denial about this. I've had relatives and colleagues rage about how it is all hysteria, a panic, a fuss about nothing, etc. Granted it is not the Black Death but it is so much worse than the flu. 

14 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Weirdest day ever. Multiple sources warned me that Macron would declare a full lockdown tonight so I rushed my family out of Paris to our country house. Even saw pics of military units moving on the capital  (sent by a friend, not a random internet guy). When did my life become a goddamn apocalyptic movie?

You, my little Marxist friend, have a country house?

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