COVID19/4 Keep calm and wash your hands

[Frey family reunion]

14 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

The idea that there are huge numbers of infected but asymptomatic patients so it isn't really that bad is just wishful thinking.  The best available data on this may be the cases from the Princess Cruise ship, where everyone was tested.  A paper was published in early March about the Princess cruise data.  Around 600 of the 3700 passengers tested positive for the disease, with about half at the time of testing showing no symptoms.  So far 6 people have died, meaning 1% of the total infected or 2% of the infected with symptoms have died.  The passengers do skew towards the older end though.  This establishes some baselines, with the caveat that it's possible that some of the asymptomatic patients eventually developed symptoms after the data was collected for the study and that some additional patients may die later.  However, from this data, it appears that around half of the infected may not show symptoms.  If you want to try accounting for this population of patients, you could divide some of the numbers you hear in the news by two.  This doesn't really change all that much though.

Those are the numbers that I was curious about, because it seems the best way to figure out a true fatality rate.  So yea, pretty disturbing.  The other is South Korea, because it seems like they have done the most extensive testing per capita out of any country.  The fatality rate that they came up with was about .7%.  Still pretty high.  

From what I can figure the real cause for concern is the sudden spike that seems to occur when these viruses really start to hit.  It's the spike that our health care system can't handle.  Once again, all of the people that are gathering in restaurants and may end up having mild or no symptoms but the exponential spread that this causes is going to create such a massive amount of people who do have severe or critical symptoms that we can't handle the influx.

[Luzifer's right hand]

2 hours ago, Toth said:

So... it seems like I have spent most of the day hunting for groceries. Forget my hopes that things might settle after two days of panic buying! Out there is still a bloody battlefield!

Toilet paper gone. Kitchen rolls gone. Canned tomatos and tomato puree gone. Rice gone. Pasta still bravely standing here and there. Milk gone (even fresh milk!?). Flour gone. Yeast gone. For some reason even eggs gone. How are you supposed to hoard those?

In the middle of all that I saw an old lady with a walker mumbling something about the war...

Two hours after arriving back home I read that a car overturned itself in the parking area of one of the supermarkets I was at, with several people severely injured. What the fuck is wrong with people?

I'm honestly glad that I followed the advice of the Zivilschutzverband(civil protection assoziation) and stocked up on non-perishable foods about a week ago. The recommendation was two weeks of food(has always been I guess) but I got a bit more as I have no car and can't really go grocery hunting if the local stores run out.

I was able to get bananas and other fruits today though despite the fact that things like flour, noodles and potatoes were sold out. TP was also sold out today.

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, Toth said:

So... it seems like I have spent most of the day hunting for groceries. Forget my hopes that things might settle after two days of panic buying! Out there is still a bloody battlefield!

Toilet paper gone. Kitchen rolls gone. Canned tomatos and tomato puree gone. Rice gone. Pasta still bravely standing here and there. Milk gone (even fresh milk!?). Flour gone. Yeast gone. For some reason even eggs gone. How are you supposed to hoard those?

In the middle of all that I saw an old lady with a walker mumbling something about the war...

Two hours after arriving back home I read that a car overturned itself in the parking area of one of the supermarkets I was at, with several people severely injured. What the fuck is wrong with people?

Crap where do you live?

This is the other issue I'm concerned with.  A healthy amount of fear is good, because it keeps us quarantined and hopefully will prevent the spike in cases from happening.  Too much fear, however, could lead to social unrest, looting ect. and put other strains on the system that we also aren't prepared to handle.

[Freshwater Spartan]

Had the most depressing conversation with my father. He's 70 and an avid Fox News viewer. He went full on rant mode on how all of this is media driven. He's not going to change his life. He's going out as much as he wants. He's not following any of the advice from anyone and if God wants his soul he can have it. Wish he would think of others.

[Leofric]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

San Francisco just did a Shelter in Place order, which apparently is just short of a lockdown. Until April 7.

This is just not for San Francisco, but also includes all 6 surrounding counties in the Bay Area, including where I live.  Scrambling to figure out what I need from my office to try and work from home for the next three weeks, or longer.   Apparently goes in to effect at midnight tonight.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I have never once logged on with this computer, and am taking some risks, but people, it is time to panic, then get calm, then organize for your own situation. The hospital I work at is dancing on the knife's edge. It will collapse. So will many around the country. I went to four stores this morning and there was nothing. And when I did find something like TP, I had to think how much I should take. A chilling thought given what I'm privileged to. Please take care, and just as I write this, San Fran is now on lockdown. Be well friends, and stop planning for a recession. A depression looms. 

[KingintheNorth4]

First confirmed case in my county.

 

 

[Toth]

6 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

I'm honestly glad that I followed the advice of the Zivilschutzverband(civil protection Assoziation) and stocked up on non-perishable foods about a week ago. The recommendation was two weeks of food(has always been I guess) but I got a bit more as I have no car and can't really go grocery hunting if the local stores run out.

I was able to get bananas and other fruits today though despite the fact that things like flour, noodles and potato es were sold out. TP was also sold out today.

Well, when major news outlets kept posting that disaster control guide all the bloody time starting nearly two weeks ago you couldn't help but get anxious. That was the time I started stocking up a little myself as well. I am also lacking a car, so thankfully even if I wanted to, I couldn't just go and empty shelves, but I did take a package or two more of the stuff I usually bought, which is actually exactly what the guide recommends. Do not under any circumstances buy shit you wouldn't use up anyway. Though I must admit, this whole ordeal did awake a bit of a prepper mentality in how I looked out for more non-perishable stuff and made plans how to have a balanced diet even if I wasn't able to get fresh stuff anymore. All the stuff I was looking out for today was more or less the last touches. Still sour about not being able to get milk and flour...

16 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Crap where do you live?

I live close to Berlin. This is the result of aforementioned posting of a disaster control guide nobody knew existed all this time, as well as the sudden day-by-day closing of schools, venues and stores (usually a day after proudly announcing that they won't) that caused unfounded rumors about a total lock-down of everything including grocery stores. Like I said in my first post today, I had hoped that things had settled a bit, but apparently it hasn't.

16 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

This is the other issue I'm concerned with.  A healthy amount of fear is good, because it keeps us quarantined and hopefully will prevent the spike in cases from happening.  Too much fear, however, could lead to social unrest, looting ect. and put other strains on the system that we also aren't prepared to handle.

To be fair, while some asshats surely had to be bulk-buying to cause this nonsense, the atmosphere was still pretty relaxed and most people reacted with a sigh or an amused shaking of their head. Most people are aware that so far it's just that the supermarkets and discounters are not being fast enough to restock the shelves all the time. Guess that's the end result of hiring staff below necessary...

Still doesn't change the fact that I have seen pre-war supermarkets in Fallout that were more fully stocked. XD

[Luzifer's right hand]

7 minutes ago, Toth said:

Well, when major news outlets kept posting that disaster control guide all the bloody time starting nearly two weeks ago you couldn't help but get anxious. That was the time I started stocking up a little myself as well. I am also lacking a car, so thankfully even if I wanted to, I couldn't just go and empty shelves, but I did take a package or two more of the stuff I usually bought, which is actually exactly what the guide recommends. Do not under any circumstances buy shit you wouldn't use up anyway. Though I must admit, this whole ordeal did awake a bit of a prepper mentality in how I looked out for more non-perishable stuff and made plans how to have a balanced diet even if I wasn't able to get fresh stuff anymore. All the stuff I was looking out for today was more or less the last touches. Still sour about not being able to get milk and flour...

I mostly got different kinds of legumes, noodles, rice, oatmeal and plant milk. The stuff I eat most of the time anyway. I also got canned fruits and vegetables(usually I prefer the fresh stuff). I already had a years worth of nuts at home(from a relatives farm). I never throw these things away I know that from experince(I used to buy stuff in bulk once a month back when I had less money).

[Ormond]

48 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

Had the most depressing conversation with my father. He's 70 and an avid Fox News viewer. He went full on rant mode on how all of this is media driven. He's not going to change his life. He's going out as much as he wants. He's not following any of the advice from anyone and if God wants his soul he can have it. Wish he would think of others.

Well, if the mandated closings keep up he may soon have nowhere to "go out" even if he wants. 

[davos]

53 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I have never once logged on with this computer, and am taking some risks, but people, it is time to panic, then get calm, then organize for your own situation. The hospital I work at is dancing on the knife's edge. It will collapse. So will many around the country. I went to four stores this morning and there was nothing. And when I did find something like TP, I had to think how much I should take. A chilling thought given what I'm privileged to. Please take care, and just as I write this, San Fran is now on lockdown. Be well friends, and stop planning for a recession. A depression looms. 

You predict that the hospital you work at will collapse?  Would you be able to elaborate?  Are you seeing that many serious cases already and are approaching the situation faced by some Italian Hospitals?  Or, is it more due to stress and lack of resources and anticipation of what is likely coming?  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Just now, davos said:

You predict that the hospital you work at will collapse?  Would you be able to elaborate?  Are you seeing that many serious cases already and are approaching the situation faced by some Italian Hospitals?  Or, is it more due to stress and lack of resources and anticipation of what is likely coming?  

I love how @Ormond just posted above you, and I think we all can agree we are sending him well wishes and good health.

Ormond is better suited to address my fears, given that I only have a BA while he has a PhD, but I think we're about to see the worst fears of crowd/mob psychologists. Hospitals in America are not meant to handle a 1% viral infection rate that requires hospitalization, let alone one that can easily go into the double digits. The federal government has been dragging its feet for weeks because our president did nothing because he was worried about his polling numbers. While now they're about to be trashed, and we're all the worse for it. 

And this is just the start. Stock up and be safe. Movement country wide will be restricted soon for the most part. Don't be caught empty handed. 

[Ormond]

24 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I love how @Ormond just posted above you, and I think we all can agree we are sending him well wishes and good health.

Ormond is better suited to address my fears, given that I only have a BA while he has a PhD, but I think we're about to see the worst fears of crowd/mob psychologists. Hospitals in America are not meant to handle a 1% viral infection rate that requires hospitalization, let alone one that can easily go into the double digits. The federal government has been dragging its feet for weeks because our president did nothing because he was worried about his polling numbers. While now they're about to be trashed, and we're all the worse for it. 

And this is just the start. Stock up and be safe. Movement country wide will be restricted soon for the most part. Don't be caught empty handed. 

The psychology of crowd panic is not a specialty of mine. I actually think most people are rising to the occasion in most places. I don't think Tywin's hospital will "collapse" because most people who work there will run away screaming. But Tywin himself knows better than I do the logistical readiness of his hospital to physically handle the number of patients that may soon be there. If things go like they have in Italy, many US hospitals will have to be making "triage" like decisions where people will die just because there are not enough intensive care beds -- and, as a link from a British physician earlier on this thread pointed out, not all of those people will be coronavirus patients, because when all the beds are filled by them the hospitals won't be able to care for all the people who will still show up with major heart attacks, strokes, or accidental injuries (though the last of those may go down a bit with so many people self-quarantining.)

As for my personal situation -- just a few minutes ago my landlord knocked on my door! Turns out some of the other residents of my building were concerned about me just because my car hadn't moved in four days. I am very touched -- this is not the sort of building where people socialize together. The family who live in the apartment right below mine are personal friends as the husband is a former student of mine, but they are the only people who I'd really say I have a "relationship" with. So it's amazing and heartening to me that the landlord got called to check on me. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, Ormond said:

The psychology of crowd panic is not a specialty of mine. I actually think most people are rising to the occasion in most places. I don't think Tywin's hospital will "collapse" because most people who work there will run away screaming. But Tywin himself knows better than I do the logistical readiness of his hospital to physically handle the number of patients that may soon be there. If things go like they have in Italy, many US hospitals will have to be making "triage" like decisions where people will die just because there are not enough intensive care beds -- and, as a link from a British physician earlier on this thread pointed out, not all of those people will be coronavirus patients, because when all the beds are filled by them the hospitals won't be able to care for all the people who will still show up with major heart attacks, strokes, or accidental injuries (though the last of those may go down a bit with so many people self-quarantining.)

I didn't go into work this morning. Others didn't either. Our network has COVID-19 in the building. I would like to think I'm one of the most level headed people in my office, and I'm nervous. Major cities are shutting down, and what makes you think Minneapolis won't? I'm already deemed low-risky by proxy. I cancelled every unnecessary meeting and get together for the next few weeks.

I went shopping for the third time in a week. Last Monday, business as usual. Last Thursday, concerning, but doable. Today was frightening. And like I said, I can only game this out as getting a lot worse. I guess the plus side is since most of the meat was gone, I bought a ton of tenderloins. I think I'll cook one now to try and cheer up. Because I think this is just a taste of what's to come. 

Quote

As for my personal situation -- just a few minutes ago my landlord knocked on my door! Turns out some of the other residents of my building were concerned about me just because my car hadn't moved in four days. I am very touched -- this is not the sort of building where people socialize together. The family who live in the apartment right below mine are personal friends as the husband is a former student of mine, but they are the only people who I'd really say I have a "relationship" with. So it's amazing and heartening to me that the landlord got called to check on me. 

Good. 

[Ormond]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I didn't go into work this morning. Others didn't either. Our network has COVID-19 in the building. I would like to think I'm one of the most level headed people in my office, and I'm nervous. Major cities are shutting down, and what makes you think Minneapolis won't? I'm already deemed low-risky by proxy. I cancelled every unnecessary meeting and get together for the next few weeks.

I went shopping for the third time in a week. Last Monday, business as usual. Last Thursday, concerning, but doable. Today was frightening. And like I said, I can only game this out as getting a lot worse. I guess the plus side is since most of the meat was gone, I bought a ton of tenderloins. I think I'll cook one now to try and cheer up. Because I think this is just a taste of what's to come. 

Good. 

Tywin, what is your job at the hospital? Were any of the people who didn't go to work physicians, nurses, or other medical personnel? 

Being nervous now doesn't necessarily mean that people won't rise to occasion when the actual disaster hits. In fact, there is some research showing that people who think about the possibility of negative events do better when they occur, IF they use their anxiety to motivate them to think about what specific actions they could take when the anticipated disaster comes about.  If you were not "nervous" at all in this situation, that would probably be a worse sign for how you would be doing over the next few weeks. People who are trying to block out all bad possibilities right now are more likely to do stupid or panicky things when the big wave hits.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Tywin, what is your job at the hospital? Were any of the people who didn't go to work physicians, nurses, or other medical personnel? 

Being nervous now doesn't necessarily mean that people won't rise to occasion when the actual disaster hits. In fact, there is some research showing that people who think about the possibility of negative events do better when they occur, IF they use their anxiety to motivate them to think about what specific actions they could take when the anticipated disaster comes about.  If you were not "nervous" at all in this situation, that would probably be a worse sign for how you would be doing over the next few weeks. People who are trying to block out all bad possibilities right now are more likely to do stupid or panicky things when the big wave hits.

I work on the business side, not the medical. I'm sure they're giving it their all. But if you're a single mom cleaning beds for $30k a year, I doubt many will stay longer than they have to. My job is to help people in financial despair, but one can only look after others for so long. Once support staff goes, it all falls apart, and that's just one of many ways it could all collapse. 

ETA:

I took my dog for a second walk just now. It's a cold day to be sure, but people around here walk their best friends in way worse weather all the time.

I didn't see anyone either time. And there were very few cars. It's a busy area. 

[Ormond]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I work on the business side, not the medical. I'm sure they're giving it their all. But if you're a single mom cleaning beds for $30k a year, I doubt many will stay longer than they have to. My job is to help people in financial despair, but one can only look after others for so long. Once support staff goes, it all falls apart, and that's just one of many ways it could all collapse. 

ETA:

I took my dog for a second walk just now. It's a cold day to be sure, but people around here walk their best friends in way worse weather all the time.

I didn't see anyone either time. And there were very few cars. It's a busy area. 

I think you are being way too pessimistic. Society did not collapse during the 1918 influenza. People aren't going to thinking about "financial despair" when the wave of sickness hits and your business office will not permanently "fall apart." And your last two observations are HOPEFUL ones -- it is great that people in your community are heeding the advice to do "social distancing", isn't it?  Would you want to see as many cars today as you do on a normal Monday? Of course not. People are doing what they are being advised to do by the experts, which is a good sign, not a bad one.

[Guy Kilmore]

43 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I didn't go into work this morning. Others didn't either. Our network has COVID-19 in the building. I would like to think I'm one of the most level headed people in my office, and I'm nervous. Major cities are shutting down, and what makes you think Minneapolis won't? I'm already deemed low-risky by proxy. I cancelled every unnecessary meeting and get together for the next few weeks.

I went shopping for the third time in a week. Last Monday, business as usual. Last Thursday, concerning, but doable. Today was frightening. And like I said, I can only game this out as getting a lot worse. I guess the plus side is since most of the meat was gone, I bought a ton of tenderloins. I think I'll cook one now to try and cheer up. Because I think this is just a taste of what's to come. 

Good. 

I didn't realize you were back in Minneapolis.  I know my wife's downtown offices have closed for three weeks.  I think we are easing into that point right now. 

I hope people rise up and our state people are smart and coordinated.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I think you are being way too pessimistic. Society did not collapse during the 1918 influenza. People aren't going to thinking about "financial despair" when the wave of sickness hits and your business office will not permanently "fall apart." And your last two observations are HOPEFUL ones -- it is great that people in your community are heeding the advice to do "social distancing", isn't it?  Would you want to see as many cars today as you do on a normal Monday? Of course not. People are doing what they are being advised to do by the experts, which is a good sign, not a bad one.

One person's pessimist is another's realist. And the world is so different from a century ago. I'd be careful to base too much on that, though it is still worth studying. 

And I guess that's one way to look at it, but there is no quarantine here. There will be one though, I'm sure.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

46 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

I didn't realize you were back in Minneapolis.  I know my wife's downtown offices have closed for three weeks.  I think we are easing into that point right now. 

I hope people rise up and our state people are smart and coordinated.

I never left. Not really, at least. Home is home.

Walz must do the right thing and shut the Twin Cities down. 

ETA: Gov. Walz is beginning to shut down the state. Schools, bars, and restaurants are shutting down. Expect everything to follow suit. If you haven't already stocked up, get moving.

@aceluby, @Guy Kilmore