Week Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: eta He keeps saying "if we go into a steep curve, a lot of people are going to die, a lot of people are going to die" It must be what the whole coronavirus team has been telling him to change his feeble brain. Once again, you can tell the last people he spoke to. Let's hope they are the only ones allowed in the room with him and they use parental control to block Fox news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 His approval rating remains resolutely high, so I thank him from destroying the notion that the US is in any shape a meritocracy (when the top dog is so mediocre and gets high marks for his mediocrity); and demonstrating the GoP is filled with hypocrites (willing to bail out big organizations during times of crisis but condone 'free stuff' to everyday Americans for roughly the same price) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centrist Simon Steele Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 12 hours ago, S John said: It really is amazing. And, IMO, they are going to have to do it. For Trump it could really be the deciding factor as to whether he gets re-elected or not. It’s a rare opportunity for him to actually do the right thing and hopefully his self preservation instinct kicks in, but as I told my wife today, he’s surrounded by some pretty hardcore righties. Will his vanity overcome the bad advice he’s probably getting? For once I find myself cheering for his vanity. I have to think it will only help them (though I suspect marginally at best). His base may not be hateful of "socialism" but I tend to think they lack any kind of self-awareness. If they were sent money, not only do they probably need it, they won't see it as "socialism" but a perk of "being in the greatest country evar." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 I guess I should mention the markets are up today, by 4.5% to 5.5%. The Dow is below it's 2018 low, as we discussed the other day, but the S&P 500 is not. One of the causes of the 2018 correction was the drop in oil prices to $27 and change. The price of oil is $27.80 at the moment, down more than 3%. A Saudi businessman was interviewed this morning and asked if he thought the Saudi government was going to reconsider it's new policy on increased oil production. He basically said don't hold your breath, and that high cost producers like off-shore oil in Russia and elsewhere and 'sands' oil like in Canada needed to reassess their production. He suggested that the Saudi government was heading to a free market in oil prices. Bye-bye cartel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 I just posted in the Covid thread, NYC warns a Shelter in Place order may be coming in next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Simon Steele said: I have to think it will only help them (though I suspect marginally at best). His base may not be hateful of "socialism" but I tend to think they lack any kind of self-awareness. If they were sent money, not only do they probably need it, they won't see it as "socialism" but a perk of "being in the greatest country evar." This is nothing new and Republicans have behaved this way a long time. Republican Presidents get to take out the credit card in order to enhance their popularity whenever they want. They don't even need a crisis to do so. Take Medicare Part D, for example. Was there a crisis? The crisis was the Bush Jr. needed to try to win an election. And this is why it is ridiculous for there to be debt scold Democrats. Any surpluses are already ear-marked to be spent by future Republican Presidents to enhance their popularity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paladin of Ice Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 15 hours ago, larrytheimp said: Have been thinking a lot about this the last few days, and a comment in the virus thread about NY states response to the situation got me thinking about leadership and what it means. Especially vision, the ability to see and assess a conflict, assess likely developments, and to do what's necessary to fix it, regardless of how unpopular or crazy the fixes may be. Especially considering where the Dem primary is right now. Have been hearing a lot of excuses lately for Biden's lousy record on so many things, which I have previously enumerated. On our morning roundtable on North East public radio, the panel for the most part argued that Biden's bad stances on things in the past were either due to compromise or to getting things done. Or not a bad thing but evidence that he can change. Huh. One problem with this approach, that this current outbreak situation is highlighting, is that sometimes there isn't a learning curve for leadership. You have to make decisions in the moment, and live with the consequences. You can't afford to be continually wrong, even if you eventually realize it and either lie about it or change your mind, or both. Yeah, I’ve said that about Biden a few times during the early stages of the primary, and it’s why he was about the last person that I was willing to vote for. Busing, social issues, Clarence Thomas, Iraq, Biden has been on the wrong side of a lot of issues since the early 80s, those are just what I can name off the top of my head. There’s been definite good stuff too, but between the way everyone except maybe the top 10% is falling apart economically, climate change, Republican radicalization, I just didn’t think he was the right choice at all. But too many people either believed differently or were too scared to get behind anyone else because they were looking for a sure thing, so barring something extraordinary happening, we’re stuck with him and need to cross our fingers and hope for the best. And, if you’re like me, try to push him, the party, and the next candidate to the left on economics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Republicans, White House Gut Paid Sick Leave In Coronavirus Bill Trump said he’d expand paid sick leave during the crisis. That’s not happening. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/paid-sick-leave-in-coronavirus-bill-watered-down-even-more_n_5e70e52ec5b6eab7793d0ceb Quote Under pressure from the White House and business groups, House Democrats agreed to further water down paid sick and family leave provisions in the coronavirus emergency bill currently awaiting a Senate vote. Democrats had already vastly scaled back their proposals for paid sick leave and paid family leave. Instead of covering all workers, millions were left out of the version of the bill passed over the weekend. Still, the original compromise bill included 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave for workers with COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, symptoms of COVID-19 or those caring for others who are sick. Now, after the legislative text was updated, those family leave provisions in the bill are much weaker. Paid family leave would only be available to parents who are home with kids due to school closure. The extended leave wouldn’t be available for people who are sick with COVID-19. Those workers would only be able to take 10 days of paid sick leave ― and only if they work at a company with less than 500 employees. What’s more: Companies with fewer than 50 workers can apply for hardship relief and get out of providing both sick and family leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 So tonight's primaries don't promise to be particularly intriguing unless there are huge surprises, but one thing I'm curious to look at is how accurate the polls are in the face of a pandemic and social distancing. In 538's final forecast, they have a good rundown of all the post-Super Tuesday polls in the three states tonight. I'd handicap the expected margins based on those polls like this: AZ: Biden by 17-24 FL: Biden by 35-40 IL: Biden by 20-30 Wonder if he over or underperforms any of those significantly. What are my priors on this? I have no fucking clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, DMC said: So tonight's primaries don't promise to be particularly intriguing unless there are huge surprises, but one thing I'm curious to look at is how accurate the polls are in the face of a pandemic and social distancing. In 538's final forecast, they have a good rundown of all the post-Super Tuesday polls in the three states tonight. I'd handicap the expected margins based on those polls like this: AZ: Biden by 17-24 FL: Biden by 35-40 IL: Biden by 20-30 Wonder if he over or underperforms any of those significantly. What are my priors on this? I have no fucking clue. I would expect him to underperform, just because his voting base is so much older than Sanders. However, older voters are generally much more determined to vote than younger voters, so maybe it's a wash? Nobody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonak Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 As a Washingtonian, I would think this would be a good reason for everyone to ditch the polling booths and upgrade to vote by mail like we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Maithanet said: I would expect him to underperform, just because his voting base is so much older than Sanders. However, older voters are generally much more determined to vote than younger voters, so maybe it's a wash? Nobody knows. Bernie should over perform. On top of the age gap you mentioned, his voters will probably be more motivated both because they’re more loyal than Biden voters and they’ll probably see this is one of their last chances to change the race. Biden still probably wins everywhere, but not by as much as he would have a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Bernie should over perform. On top of the age gap you mentioned, his voters will probably be more motivated both because they’re more loyal than Biden voters and they’ll probably see this is one of their last chances to change the race. Biden still probably wins everywhere, but not by as much as he would have a week ago. The people filling bars every night and partying on the beach at Clearwater, you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: The people filling bars every night and partying on the beach at Clearwater, you mean? The vodka steels their spins, Comrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 36 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Bernie should over perform. On top of the age gap you mentioned, his voters will probably be more motivated both because they’re more loyal than Biden voters and they’ll probably see this is one of their last chances to change the race. Biden still probably wins everywhere, but not by as much as he would have a week ago. I'm not so sure. I know it's just Twitter, but DSA, Sanders-types and leftists all were pretty pissed that the primaries weren't postponed, a lot of people saying they weren't going to vote. On the other hand you have Biden tweeting away to go and vote if you feel healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden performs as expected or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, larrytheimp said: I'm not so sure. I know it's just Twitter, but DSA, Sanders-types and leftists all were pretty pissed that the primaries weren't postponed, a lot of people saying they weren't going to vote. On the other hand you have Biden tweeting away to go and vote if you feel healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden performs as expected or better. I'll have to take your word on that. I'm not on Twitter, though I'm starting to rethink that seriously. Goes double for The Gram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Well, looks like Biden is at least gonna meet expectations in Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 So with 75% of the vote in Biden leads Florida by 37 percent. Tell me more about how Bernie has magical properties with Latino voters, believers! Tell me about your dreams, and quickly too lest they evaporate entirely before the next dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Well, at least Sanders looks like he’ll get his 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said: So with 75% of the vote in Biden leads Florida by 37 percent. Tell me more about how Bernie has magical properties with Latino voters, believers! Tell me about your dreams, and quickly too lest they evaporate entirely before the next dawn. Right now my dream is that people start taking the outbreak seriously, that Dems don't just roll over for the GOP on any relief efforts, and that the left wing of the party can get some solid concessions and then line up behind Biden and hit the Clorox soaked levers and buttons and touch screens and pencils in November. I don't think any stats coming out of voting today will ever mean jack shit about anything. These primaries should have been postponed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.