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M-m-m-my Corona! NCOVID-19 #5


Ran

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4 hours ago, DaveSumm said:

I’m no expert, but I can’t help but notice he completely ignores the massive quarantine in China? Maybe that played a part in the numbers dipping? The cruise ship figures aren’t definitive because we only know that 20% got infected when they tested, there’s been no follow up see if they subsequently displayed symptoms.

we had i think 11 on the ship, and from what i remember at least 2 of them were diagnosed once they came back and they are in the country statistics and not the ship statistics, i'm pretty sure i saw the same kind of reports from other countries, so the 20% is wrong (how wrong i don't know, but it's wrong)

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18 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'm curious what will happen with us. We're not traditionally essential staff, but the ventilators are stored in our warehouse. 

Is Walz going to fully shut down the metro? I keep seeing different reports.

Fully shutdown, I don't think so, not with bars and such shutdown and business voluntarily shutdown.  The counties are shutting down. I hope the legislature passes SF4200.

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

U.S.-Canada border is shutting down.

I was saying it was going to happen before the end of the week. Closed except for essential trade, like food.

 

7 minutes ago, Liv Stark said:

we had i think 11 on the ship, and from what i remember at least 2 of them were diagnosed once they came back and they are in the country statistics and not the ship statistics, i'm pretty sure i saw the same kind of reports from other countries, so the 20% is wrong (how wrong i don't know, but it's wrong)

Canada breaks out the number who returned from cruises. Eight.

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48 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

U.S.-Canada border is shutting down.

I'm sure this is really inconvenient for a lot of people but it's quite good news for me. If my Vancouver to Chicago flight in April gets cancelled I can have a full refund rather than, not particularly useful for me, Air Canada credit. So, yeah, I've been hoping for this. Sorry.

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I  have been thinking about the panic buying and hoarding that is going on and some of the reactions to it on this forum. The case of the survivalists who stockpiled 5 years of food and ammo was mentioned and some laughed at the idea. And rightly so. Let's say one does have five years food stocked. Eventually food runs out. Then what? Do you have the means to grow more? If there has been a complete and utter collapse of society, lasting five years longer than anyone else, hiding in your bunker is a pretty miserable existence. Especially when you come out and what do you have to trade to those who survived? Working together as a group is how humanity survived up until now, not huddling in caves behind a pile of rocks to throw at intruders. Having a skill that helps others survive is the best way for you to survive.

I guess the reason for stocking up on all the toilet paper is for all the masturbatory fantasies of emerging out of your bunker in five years, king of all you survey.

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In other news, a Japanese antiviral, Avigan (Faviparir) used against the flu has been shown to speed recovery by an average of a week (4 days vs 11 days) in a Chinese study. And apparently there's another antiviral showing good results. The Chinese are going to start mass producing it, and no doubt other countries will follow suit. Apparently it has a potential birth defect risk for pregnant women, but since the vast majority in need of it are older people that should not be a concern. Although for whatever reason it's not approved for use in Sweden yet -- there were requests for it in 2015 as a potential drug against ebola, but it looks like the drug administration here didn't allow it.

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58 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I was saying it was going to happen before the end of the week. Closed except for essential trade, like food.

 

14 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

I'm sure this is really inconvenient for a lot of people but it's quite good news for me. If my Vancouver to Chicago flight in April gets cancelled I can have a full refund rather than, not particularly useful for me, Air Canada credit. So, yeah, I've been hoping for this. Sorry.

Been saying for years, we need a northern wall too. Those sticky fingered monsters are gonna get us all sick!!!!!!

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17 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I don’t know.  I’m simply dividing the number of dead by the number of infected on the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracking app.

That's not really a terribly accurate way to come up with a fatality rate.  I'd look to South Korea which did a large amount of testing per capita and their fatality rate was .7.  And even that figure may be a little inflated.  Of course that is still pretty high.

Here is the issue, the fatality rate is a concern but only up to a point.  The bigger issue is how quickly the virus is going to spread.  And guess what, Merkel is right about 60 to 70 percent of us are probably going to get this virus at some point and time.  Almost no one has developed any antibodies to it, and it apparently spreads as easily as the common cold.  

The good news is that the vast majority of us that come down with the virus, will have only mild to moderate symptoms, or perhaps no symptoms at all, then our bodies start to build up antibodies for the virus, so the next time it comes around we may have no symptoms whatsoever.  

The problem isn't the great possibility that this is a death sentence for most people because it's not.  The problem is too many people coming down with this at once.  Our hospitals can't handle that, specifically they can't handle the number of people who may have more serious or severe symptoms if a large amount of the population contracts the virus at once.  That's the whole thing about flattening the curve.  They aren't really telling us that this is going to keep the virus from spreading, they are telling us that this will keep the virus from spreading too quickly.  

Which is probably why you need to be ready for the current state of affairs to go on longer than we are being told, especially in areas with denser population.  Because otherwise you are just delaying the spike in cases that they are worried about.  

And I think it's also possible that if this acts like other cold and flu viruses, we'll see a large down tick of cases during the summer, but then a renewed up tick once Autumn comes.  So guess, what, we may be going through all of this again come Fall.

 

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I'm interested in any reasons people are aware of for the dramatically different scenarios in Germany vs. Spain and Italy. Germany's number of confirmed cases is now increasing by over 1,000 daily, but they are reporting just 27 fatalities overall. 

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Just now, Paxter said:

I'm interested in any reasons people are aware of for the dramatically different scenarios in Germany vs. Spain and Italy. Germany's number of confirmed cases is now increasing by over 1,000 daily, but they are reporting just 27 fatalities overall. 

Better healthcare and fewer smokers? 

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11 minutes ago, Paxter said:

I'm interested in any reasons people are aware of for the dramatically different scenarios in Germany vs. Spain and Italy. Germany's number of confirmed cases is now increasing by over 1,000 daily, but they are reporting just 27 fatalities overall. 

Almost certainly broader testing and better contact tracing. 

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7 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Better healthcare and fewer smokers? 

My guess would be a smaller percantage of hidden cases and a bigger spread across the country that as of yet hasn't caused too much stress on the local hospitals.

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