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M-m-m-my Corona! NCOVID-19 #5


Ran

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1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

This is a good longform article on what we can do to actually stop this. Basically - lots of infrastructure, testing, and taking it seriously in the longer term (3-9 months) while buying us some time right now to get that implemented.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/how-we-beat-coronavirus/608389/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

And how do we survive the 3 - 9 months? My once thriving online business is in the red for two weeks now, and sooo many others are in the same boat. 

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

So, don’t plan for the worst hope for the best?  That’s panicking?

Unless you're personally wealthy enough to either buy enough food to last for the rest of your life, or wall off an area of arable land suitable to feed you till you die, then what plan will help you if food supply lines collapse? Saying be prepared and buy enough food to last for x number of weeks is a good way to plan for the worst. 

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48 minutes ago, DMC said:

Please cite a political science empirical work that finds people do not work together in times of crisis.  From what I recall most studies find exactly the opposite.

Those studies tend to look at isolated natural disasters IIRC. This is different. I doubt we have any usable empirical evidence as to how people will behave. I know you don't like hearing this, but you're gonna have to game this out with best guesses, and the combination of a global pandemic, financial meltdown, public panic and an incompetent federal government suggest fairly grim results in the short and medium terms. We will recover from this, but I believe this has a better than 50/50 chance of being worse than '08 in a multitude of ways.

And to be clear, it is not the virus that has me concerned.

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Just now, Relic said:

And how do we survive the 3 - 9 months? My once thriving online business is in the red for two weeks now, and sooo many others are in the same boat. 

The 3-9 months are where we are largely back to 'normal'. There are more barriers - things like screening, travel delays - but in this scenario businesses are open, people are still meeting (though not as often, and not in very large groups), and life largely continues as it is for most people. There will be outbreaks - and in those specific areas we'll need to be a lot more vigilant. But as long as we can test quickly, do contact tracing well, and respond quickly to local issues we can contain it. It requires us to be able to build up that infrastructure - hospital equipment and more ventilators and beds, clinics for fast testing, support systems like websites and apps for tracking where people were when they were sick - but these are things that can happen quite fast, and can happen right now.

The only reason we'd have to stay locked down for 9 months or more is if we have absolutely no system of testing, control, or other mitigation. There is no real reason to believe that it will be that bad. Even if you think that the US fed will let people down, other governments have shown that with far fewer resources they're able to do quite well - and export that to other countries. 

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@Relic

The only way through for everyone Mike, imo, without economic ruin, is a combination of universal income, a freezing of all prices [those recently inflated must be normalized] mortgage deferrals [interest payments only] and rent relief due to the latter [landlords attempting to gouge while deferring their mortgages should face stiff, stiff penalties] 

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2 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

Italy has over 41.000 deaths now, more than China. :( (source: tagesschau.de)

This is not accurate. They might have 41000 CASES, but they most certainly do not have 41000 deaths.

ETA:

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-19-20-intl-hnk/h_338a9e3e86c965845d14e33d17c45d68

Italy has more deaths (3405) than China (3252). They do have more cases (41000). 

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Just now, Mindwalker said:

Italy has over 41.000 deaths now, more than China. :( (source: tagesschau.de)

4,100, not 41,000. Horrifying numbers for sure, for a country of 60 million. Not to diminish that but the USA had 265 or so deaths per day this winter from the flu. 

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1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

The 3-9 months are where we are largely back to 'normal'. There are more barriers - things like screening, travel delays - but in this scenario businesses are open, people are still meeting (though not as often, and not in very large groups), and life largely continues as it is for most people. There will be outbreaks - and in those specific areas we'll need to be a lot more vigilant. But as long as we can test quickly, do contact tracing well, and respond quickly to local issues we can contain it. It requires us to be able to build up that infrastructure - hospital equipment and more ventilators and beds, clinics for fast testing, support systems like websites and apps for tracking where people were when they were sick - but these are things that can happen quite fast, and can happen right now.

The only reason we'd have to stay locked down for 9 months or more is if we have absolutely no system of testing, control, or other mitigation. There is no real reason to believe that it will be that bad. Even if you think that the US fed will let people down, other governments have shown that with far fewer resources they're able to do quite well - and export that to other countries. 

Reasonable. Hope this is what ends up happening. 

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16 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

I don’t know, but you would think if a doctor thought someone didn’t need to be there they would immediately turn them away. That doesn’t appear to be the case. I mean there’s plenty of articles around doing the numbers; even a moderate increase in hospital demand drastically outstrips the actual beds.

We're turning everyone away who isn't a legit possible case or needs to go to the ER. Broke your hand, did you? Will mail you a wrist brace.

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2 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

@Relic

The only way through for everyone Mike, imo, without economic ruin, is a combination of universal income, a freezing of all prices [those recently inflated must be normalized] mortgage deferrals [interest payments only] and rent relief due to the latter [landlords attempting to gouge while deferring their mortgages should face stiff, stiff penalties] 

Roger. It's either what you said, OR securing our at risk population and getting on with things. Cuz what's happening right now in Europe, where i am located, is NOT sustainable. 

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2 minutes ago, Relic said:

Roger. It's either what you said, OR securing our at risk population and getting on with things. Cuz what's happening right now in Europe, where i am located, is NOT sustainable. 

Even three months isn't sustainable for the overwhelmingly large majority of individuals, families, and businesses. Governments that are putting these stabilizing measures off are only hedging. It'll come to that, for sure.  

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Those studies tend to look at isolated natural disasters IIRC. This is different. I doubt we have any usable empirical evidence as to how people will behave. I know you don't like hearing this, but you're gonna have to game this out with best guesses

So, the bases of your political science "background" really has no relevance then, right?  (And no, studies on crisis management are not isolated to natural disasters.)

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

We will recover from this, but I believe this has a better than 50/50 chance of being worse than '08 in a multitude of ways.

Well, that statement is far removed from saying the system is gonna breakdown or society is gonna "spiral out."  I agree this is very likely to be worse longterm and short-term than the GFC.

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5 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Even three months isn't sustainable for the overwhelmingly large majority of individuals, families, and businesses. Governments that are putting these stabilizing measures off are only hedging. It'll come to that, for sure.  

agreed

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3 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

But fewer today than there were yesterday. Back down to a plateau number. 

I had confused the numbers; it's 41.000 infected and I think roughly 3.400 dead

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12 minutes ago, DMC said:

So, the bases of your political science "background" really has no relevance then, right?  (And no, studies on crisis management are not isolated to natural disasters.)

Well, that statement is far removed from saying the system is gonna breakdown or society is gonna "spiral out."  I agree this is very likely to be worse longterm and short-term than the GFC.

To see how people react think back to 9/11 and all the planes in the air that landed their passengers in a small town of 10,00 called Gander in Newfoundland. Almost 7000 passengers landed there severely straining resources. And yes Gander coped.

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Got an email from the Kentucky chiropractic board today.  Governor has shut us down as of tomorrow at 5:00 PM.  Just said "until further notice."  My brother talked to former head of the state association and the Inspector General basically told him that MDs are getting shut down next for non-essential care. 

Had to talk to my staff today about filing for unemployment.  Doesn't look like I will be eligible, but they can be.  I'll have some checks trickling in for the next 2 - 3 weeks on services performed already, but will definitely get interesting from there.

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33 minutes ago, DMC said:

So, the bases of your political science "background" really has no relevance then, right?  (And no, studies on crisis management are not isolated to natural disasters.)

Well, that statement is far removed from saying the system is gonna breakdown or society is gonna "spiral out."  I agree this is very likely to be worse longterm and short-term than the GFC.

I believe I said initially that it has the potential too. The matter of fact statements were how it would look if it happened.

But to your first part, are you aware of any studies that look at everything collapsing at once globally? I know that’s a bit of an overstatement, but it is a possibility.

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