Purple Wedding, Finally Solved.

[Pedro Luiz]

This theory is my first contribuition to the Ice and Fire community, but it's a little complicated, so I'm trying to organize it in the most pedagogical way I can. It goes from fundamental incongruences between the narratives about what really happened by the time Joffrey was killed, and from the support of a interview made by GRRM in 2014. I argue that he purposelly wrote the book in a way that would lead us to misdirection - but the devil is in the details. That said, I'll try to order my ideas from the fundamental mistakes at the LF-Tyrell murder version to my own version of what happened there. Ready? Let's dig on this.

 

First, the GRRM interview to EW, at wich the author made key revelations about his intend at the PW. I'll quote the most important paragraph:

Quote

I think the intent of the murderer is not to have this become another Red Wedding—the Red Wedding was very clearly murder and butchery. I think the idea with Joffrey’s death was to make it look like an accident — someone’s out celebrating, they haven’t invented the Heimlich maneuver, so when someone gets food caught in his throat, it’s very serious.

Ok, we have a very clear statement here. Whoever was trying to kill Joffrey, wanted it to look like an accident. Giving fact that the exactly opposite happened, we can start with our first question: was Tyrion's accusation just some random consequence of the chaotic enviroment of the wedding? Straight ahead, I'm answering: no. Littlefinger, who claims to be behind the murder all along, knew that this was going to happen. Should we question GRRM's own words about the book? Or course not. He is, in fact, giving us everything we need. Let's dig, then, into LF's version of what happened, and how exaclty he's so sure he was the one that killed Joffrey.

1. Littlefinger - Tyrell's Plot Problem:

The first suspicious thing about this plan is that Littlefinger, besides be working with the Tyrells, it's directly sabotaging House Tyrell's plans: he's kidnapping Sansa. As we see in Olenna conversations with Sansa, she's very interested in wedding her to her grandson, Wyllas. All in all, she also wanted to take her on a trip to Highgarden after the wedding, and i quote:

 

Quote

 

ASOS, pg 616.

Lady Olenna smiled. “I am pleased to say I shall be leaving for Highgarden the day after next. I have had quite enough of this smelly city, thank you. Perhaps you would like to accompany me for a little visit, whilst the men are off having their war?

 

 

 

Why would Olenna make that offer if she knew that Sansa was going to flee with LF? It does seem like an incongruence between the two schemers. If you pay close attention to the wedding, both Joffrey and Margaery are drinking wine from the same cup. That wich was given, by the way, as a wedding present from Lord Mace Tyrell. That said, if Joffrey chokes on his pie, nobody could blame the wine, since he's bride was drinking from the same cup. And i quote:

Quote

 

ASOS, pg 617-618

Margaery, of course, smiling sweetly as she and Joffrey shared a drink from the great seven-sided wedding chalice.

 

Could that mean the Olenna was, in fact, hoping the death of Joffrey to look like an accident? I say yes, but what whent so wrong that it ended up so bad for Tyrion?

Does Littlefinger also wanted that to look like an accident? 

That said, we'll jump to LF''s own version of what happened, and try to match it with Sir Dontos version of what happened. And why? Because here resides fundamental mistakes too.

2. Littlefinger - Dontos Problem:

Let's start with a few assumptions:

1. Sir Dontos didn't atend the wedding. As agreed with Sansa, he was meant to meet her at the Godswood, wich means he was likely hiding somewhere in the castle. That said, he couldn't see what happened in the moment that Jofrrey died.
2. If we assume that LF was waiting for Sansa in a ship and Dontos was hiding on land, that would mean that he couldn't reach out for LF in the meantime when the bells wore ringing so he could get a clever deduction of what happened.
3. Sir Dontos it's a drunk fool. Let's assume that he's deduction skills are poor, if they exist. That said, it's very unlikely that he may be capable of figuring out what really happened at the wedding by mixed up information, and it's rather obvious that he trusted in LF's predicitons of what would happen at the wedding. That's an important factor to the theory, and you'll undestand why latter. That all lead to the simple conclusion that, again:
4. Dontos was telling what he was being told to tell and expecting what he was told to expect.

My point is here is that Sir Dontos reavealings of the plan to murder Joffrey dont match the acctual occurrences at the wedding. Let's examine the first conversation between Sansa and Dontos after the death of Joffrey, on their way to LF's ship.

 

Quote

 

ASOS, pg 628

Sansa: “They’re no amethysts. Are they? Are they? You lied.”

Dontos: “Black amethysts,” he swore. “There was magic in them.”

Sansa: “There was murder in them!”

Dontos: “Softly, my lady, softly. No murder. He choked on his pigeon pie.” Dontos chortled. “Oh, tasty tasty pie. Silver and stones, that’s all it was, silver and stone and magic.”

 

Wait a minute... Pingeon pie? If we follow assumptions 1 and 3, we would come to the conclusion that the poison was never meant to the wine. That's because, if it was meant to it, Dontos would naturally think it was the drink that killed Joff, not the food.  Following assumption 4, we get the idea that LF also thought he was going to die by the pie. But what makes us so certain it was the wine?

In fact, there's not a single strong evidence of it.

The idea that the Strangler poison was meant to the wine comes from two different ocasions: Cersei's acusation and Sansa's own deduction. Jaime was also concerned about it, when trying to understand the poisoning. In fact, we are tricked to think that LF poisoned Joff's wine, but he never explicitly told us that. In ASOS, it's Sansa that asks LF if one of the Kettlebacks poisoned Joff's cup, and LF quickly asks her if someone touched her hairnet at the wedding. Of course, the hairnet thing was part of his plan. But what was his plan? My central point here is that, following the previous logical assumptions involving Sir Dontos, it is possible to deduce LF's plan. Let's hear Sir Dontos again:

 

 

Quote

 

Dontos: “Hush, you’ll be the death of us. I did nothing. Come, we must away, they’ll search for you. Your husband’s been arrested.”

Sansa: “Tyrion?” she said, shocked.

Dontos: “Do you have another husband? The Imp, the dwarf uncle, she thinks he did it.” He grabbed her hand and pulled at her. “This way, we must away, quickly now, have no fear.”

 

Following assumption 1, 3 and 4, we can deduce that LF knew all along that Tyrion was going to be arrested. But how? Well, we know for sure that the justing dwarfs wore hired by him. He couldn't predict that Joffrey would make Tyrion he's own cupbearer... but was this even necessary? Knowing that Joffrey and Tyrion would have a hatred discussion during the weddind wouldn't be enough for a crazy Cersei to acuse Tyrion of poisoning? 

But, if Olenna wanted it to be an accident and LF knew that was not going to happen, we should deduce that he was the one that worked for the chaos. In one single stroke, LF both kindapped Sansa quicker than the Tyrells and made it for Tyrion to be acused. Now we can deduce that LF betrayed the Tyrells at their own cup. Had Tyrion been executed, Sansa would now be a widow, ready for another marriage and wouldn't even have to become Alayne Stone. Here we saw LF almost managing to win an important battle at the game of thrones. Thanks to Varys, Tyrion is still alive and Sansa became a bastard. 

By now one could say that this case is closed. Through GRRM'S interview, House Tyrell actions and Sir Dontos words, it seems that the most important thing about the PW is that Tyrion wasn't meant to be acused in first place. Should we analyze one last paragraph of Sir Dontos, just to be sure there's nothing else to think about?

That was said when Sir Dontos first proposed a chance of escape to Sansa, back in ACOK:

 

Quote

 

ACOK, pg 486

Dontos: “Be brave. I swore to see you home, and now I can. The day has been chosen.”

“When?” Sansa asked. “When will we go?”

Dontos: “The night of Joffrey’s wedding. After the feast. All the necessary arrangements have been made. The Red Keep will be full of strangers. Half the court will be drunk and the other half will be helping Joffrey bed his bride. For a little while, you will be forgotten, and the confusion will be our friend.”

 

Now...That's confusing!

 Joffrey clearly died on the very beginning of the feast.  The bedding didn't start yet, nobody had even eaten the pie.  It just dont match. Keep in mind that this is a complex poisoning scheme. No one could simply improvise another way to poison Joffrey, specially if the very person in charge of dealing with the poison (Olenna) is the one concerned in making it look like an accident. By assumption 4, we deduce that LF also wanted it to be that way. 

One can say i'm far too interested in the details. Yes, that would be a problem... but the devil is in the details. This is House Martin's own sigil, for sure. And when we start to read more critically, something else shows up.

3. Pingeon Pie.

I'll start this section by GRMM's very detailed description of the moment at wich Joffrey chockes to his death:

 

Quote

 

ASOS 625-626

The king’s chalice was on the table where he’d left it. Tyrion had to climb back onto his chair to reach it. Joff yanked it from his hands and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin. “My lord,” Margaery said, “we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us.” “My uncle hasn’t eaten his pigeon pie.” Holding the chalice one-handed, Joff jammed his other into Tyrion’s pie. “It’s ill luck not to eat the pie,” he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon. “See, it’s good.” Spitting out flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. “Dry, though. Needs washing down.” Joff took a swallow of wine and coughed again, more violently. “I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof kof, pig, Uncle. I want …” His words broke up in a fit of coughing. Margaery looked at him with concern. “Your Grace?” “It’s, kof, the pie, noth—kof, pie.” Joff took another drink, or tried to, but all the wine came spewing back out when another spate of coughing doubled him over. His face was turning red. “I, kof, I can’t, kof kof kof kof …”

 

It is rather interesting the selection of the word "Working", here. It's almost as he wanted us to look in somewhere else in order to understand this problem. Following the text, Joffrey eats Tyrion's pie just after claiming that Tyrion didn't eat it. Can we believe in him?

Quote

ASOS, 537

A serving man placed a slice of hot pigeon pie in front of Tyrion and covered it with a spoon of lemon cream. The pigeons were well and truly cooked inthis pie, but he found them no more appetizing than the white ones fluttering about the hall. Sansa was not eating either.

As we dig more into this, we must admit confusion. Back in section 2, I argued that LF knew Joffrey was going to be poisoned by the pie, but so it happens that he died eating Tyrion's pie. Assuming LF couldn't foreshadow Joffrey's actions to that point, we must take a step back and think: what if the poison was acctualy solved into the wine? Let's analyze it carefully:

Quote

ASOS, 536

But before they could make their retreat, Joffrey was back. “Uncle, where are you going? You’re my cupbearer, remember?” “I need to change into fresh garb, Your Grace. May I have your leave?” “No. I like the look of you this way. Serve me my wine.”The king’s chalice was on the table where he’d left it.

Its is important to understand that, by the time Joffrey had already cut the pie, the cup was empty. Tyrion than serves the wine that Joffrey instantly drinks. There's no mention to a single person aproatching the cup or even poisoning the bottle. Should we insist in the thesis that the wine was poisoned, we must deduce that it was poisoned right from before and then admit that it takes some time to work.

But does it?

Let's examine the only other case of poisoning by the strangler in ASOIAF, when Cressen tries to kill Melissandre:

Quote

ACOK, Prologue

His hands were shaking, but he made himself be strong. A maester of the Citadel must not be afraid. The wine was sour on his tongue. He let the empty cup drop from his fingers to shatter on the floor. “He does have power here, my lord,” the woman said. “And fire cleanses.” At her throat, the ruby shimmered redly. Cressen tried to reply, but his words caught in his throat. His cough became a terrible thin whistle as he strained to suck in air. Iron fingers tightened round his neck.

As we see, the only indication of the Strangler effect in one's throat is that it closes it instantly. This, along with the "His throat working" phrase, lead us to the conclusion that Tyrion's pie was poisoned. 

4. A Second Murder Plot

So far we've concluded that:

1. LF-Tyrell's conspiracy had a unexpected twist;
2. By deduction, that twist was made by Littlefinger;
3. Joffrey's death didn't happen as planed;
4. Evidence sugests there might have been a second plot aiming at Tyrion;

In order to understand who might try to kill Tyrion, let's first try to understand what was his value in the game of thrones by the time of the Purple Wedding.

Tyrion is Lord Tywin's second male son. Since Jaime is a knight from the Kingsguard, he can't inherit Casterly Rock and ain't supposed to quit the guard. Tyrion is the rightfull heir to Casterly Rock, and while he's father made clear to him that he may never be Lord of Casterly Rock, it ain't so clear to others. Tyrion is recently married to Sansa Stark, wich means that his son will be Lord of Winterfell. My statement here is that, from other lords point of view, Tyrion may be able to control both the Westlands and the North at some point in the future. He is the Lannister's most valuable piece at this point, wich is almost the same as being the most valuable target (it is also important to state that, since his marriage had already happened, someone interested in ceasing Lannisters powers by killing Tyrion may assume that Sansa is already pregnant of him. Since she didn't eat her slice of pingeon pie as well, there's also a possibility that her's was poisoned too). 

Our first suspect is, of course, Littlefinger. But if we follow assumption 4, we would deduce he never meant to kill Tyrion at the wedding: he thought the imp was going to be acused. 

The Tyrells would definitelly benefit from Tyrion's death, except we already came to the conclusion that they wanted it to look like an accident. Two dead Lannisters at the same wedding? That would even ruin Joffrey's poisoning (primal target), since the bedding wouldn't be happening.

All this previous characterization of the Imp may lead us to believe Cersei wasn't capable of doing that. Her dumbness and paranoia ain't enough for her to try and ruin her own House. Another reasons might be:

• Everybody saw Joffrey bullying Tyrion and then eating a piece of his pie. If Cersei knew it was poisoned, wouldn't she scream for her son not to eat it?
• We happen to see Cersei as POV in AFFC. She really thinks Tyrion killed Joff. This is a very trustfull insinuation that she wasn't responsable for her son's death. Unless you believe she has alternative personalities, wich would require much more theorizing and evidence. 

So we discarded three agents: Littlefinger, Tyrells and Cersei. Process of elimination would be a very hard path to go here, since the wedding was crowded with different houses with different interests. Again, we should look for clues and details. Well, in that case, it looks like George Martin almost shouted on our faces the name of the poisoner:

Quote

ASOS, pg 682

Oberyn: "Did you poison him?”

Tyrion: "No. Did you?”

The prince smiled

5. The Red Viper From Dorne

A great number of suspicion and theories have been made about the Martell's engagement in events through all the world of Ice and Fire. Perhaps the most famous, the Dornish Master Plan (DMB) was able to sumarize and relate a great number of events to Doran and Oberyn's cause. Whilist I don't believe in DMB theory because of some faults in its development and conclusion, I do agree in one thing: House Lannister is being largely affected by secret Martell scheming. My goal here its not to attach DMB's credibility to my own theory's credibility. You can disbelieve the first and agree to mine's, no harm. In this section, I'm aiming to show clues that incriminate Oberyn Martell at Joffrey's death, regardless if there is a master plan or not.

Quote

ASOS pg 683

Oberyn: “To be sure, I have much to thank your sister for. If not for her accusation at the feast, it might well be you judging me instead of me judging you.” The prince’s eyes were dark with amusement. “Who knows more of poison than the Red Viper of Dorne, after all? "

Who knows more of poison than the Red Viper of Dorne, after all?

So sarcastic, right?

During the trial, it is explicity told that the Strangler is a very rare kind of poison. Only maesters are known for commonly having it. Rather than sarcasm, it looks like Oberyn is toying with Tyrion's ability to deduce the real criminal behind the murder: "Hey, look at me. Had you ever thought that I could be the poisoner?"

Quote

ASOS pg 684

Oberyn: "You look so very guilty that I am convinced of your innocence"

.Again. another incriminating line from the Viper.

Now, in order to accpept the idea that Oberyn killed someone, we should first check if it was possible. At some extent, it was obviously possible. Tyrion does not pay attention to the one serving his slice of pingeon pie, there are lots of comes-and-goes, and it is even explicitly said by Sir Balon Swann:

Quote

ASOS 689

Ser Balon Swann frowned. “The Imp was not alone on the dais. Far from it. That late in the feast, we had people standing and moving about, changing places, slipping off to the privy, servants were coming and going … the king and queen had just opened the wedding pie, every eye was on them or those thrice-damned doves. No one was watching the wine cup.”

• Checking Oberyn's own coments about the wedding, we can suspect him;
• Considering the small list of people with access to the Strangler, Oberyn becomes even more suspect;
• The conditions at wich the murder takes place are possible for him;

  Now we should look for the reasons for Tyrion's murder. Does he had any?

6. When the Justice will be served?

This is a rather different section. I'm working both on facts and conjectures. The DMB theory is a possible explanation - a rather rich one, that I can't totally agree, but certainly it's right at some crucial points. May we use it? I ask the reader to look for this theory, specially the Deeper Dorne section, and then check if there's a match. Here, I'll try to theorize without large connections to other complex theories.

The first clear fact that we should consider is Oberyn's desperate desire for vengeance. He wants the Lannisters to pay their debts. That goes for a number of chracters, but specially for Tywin. The one who gave the orders. The one who nobody could stand against. My point here is that Oberyn's goal in KL is much more about Tywin than it is to anybody else. But how Tyrion fits in the story?

Lets start with the trial:

Quote

ASOS pg 683

Oberyn: “To be sure, I have much to thank your sister for. If not for her accusation at the feast, it might well be you judging me instead of me judging you.” The prince’s eyes were dark with amusement. “Who knows more of poison than the Red Viper of Dorne, after all? "

Amusement? Sure there's a lot of amusement when Oberyn fights Sir Gregor. This trial means a lot to him. And it goes specially because of something Tywin did: ordered the rape and death of Elia Martell. To the viper, the price Elia and her children paid wasn't just about war: it was about payback. And i quote:

Quote

ASOS pg 726

Oberyn: “What I did not tell you was that my mother waited as long as was decent, and then broached your father about our purpose. Years later, on her deathbed, she told me that Lord Tywin had refused us brusquely. His daughter was meant for Prince Rhaegar, he informed her. And when she asked for Jaime, to espouse Elia, he offered her you instead.”

Tyrion: “Which offer she took for an outrage.”

Oberyn: “It was. Even you can see that, surely?”

[...]

Tyrion: “Well, Prince Rhaegar married Elia of Dorne, not Cersei Lannister of Casterly Rock. So it would seem your mother won that tilt.”

“She thought so,” Prince Oberyn agreed, “but your father is not a man to forget such slights. He taught that lesson to Lord and Lady Tarbeck once, and to the Reynes of Castamere. And at King’s Landing, he taught it to my sister. My helm, Dagos.”

Manwoody handed it to him; a high golden helm with a copper disk mounted on the brow, the sun of Dorne. The visor had been removed, Tyrion saw.

“Elia and her children have waited long for justice.” Prince Oberyn pulled on soft red leather gloves, and took up his spear again. “But this day they shall have it.”

Was it just about the war? I hardly think so. To Oberyn, Elia died because of Tywin's own rage: they stolen he's blood from Rhaegar's children. Gregor Clegane was a mere pawn; he didn't understand why he was to this, he was just following orders. My point here is that the Viper intended this trial to happen long before arriving in KL. He didn't choose to fight for Tyrion when he saw that Gregor Clegane would be Cersei's champion; he decided to kill Tyrion and demand a trial by combat. 

Who else would be the champion for any Lannister victim? Bronn? I hardly think so. 

I could also talk about the strong evidence that Tywin was being poisoned by Oberyn with the Widows Blood, Sarella Sand sending visions to Lancel and making him confess his crimes to the Faith, Armory Loch trown to the bear pit, Qyburn suspicious behavior...

But you can see it all in other theories, specially DMB and Deeper Dorne. Please, do it.

For the Grand Finalle, I would like to point this creepy line that Oberyn keeps telling to Tyrion since he arrived in King's Landing:

Quote

ASOS pg 541

Every time he chanced to see Oberyn Martell the prince asked when the justice would be served.

 

Quote

ASOS pg 405

Tyrion: “Are you hungry, my prince?”

Oberyn: “I have hungered for a long time. Though not for food. Pray tell me, when will the justice be served?”

Served

Like a slice of pingeon pie with a spoon of lemon cream is served?

Quote

ASOS pg 624

"A serving man placed a slice of hot pigeon pie in front of Tyrion[...]"

That said, I ask you to feel free and talk about what you think that really happened at the Purple Wedding. Feel free to share!

Edit 1: Yes, I'm Djscarlax97 from reddit. Just before anyone else ask.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

Welcome to the forums. I think you will find this post would be better suited in the General Asoiaf section, as this section is primarily devoted to discussion about The World of Ice & Fire book. You will probably get more discussion if you move it over there. 

[BlackLightning]

You know, I did always find the Purple Wedding weird.

The Red Wedding was a long time coming; the groundwork for it began to be laid in the middle of A Clash of Kings, it didn't happen until 2/3rds of the way into A Storm of Swords. And not only is it still very relevant, there is still stuff being revealed about it even now as of the end of A Dance with Dragons.

The Purple Wedding came out of nowhere and was resolved far too quickly and far too neatly. For example, we don't have the benefit of a Tyrell POV so there's no one to challenge Littlefinger's story which is almost guaranteed to be bias. And why exactly would he tell Sansa everything?

[Yaya]

great points, thanks for posting this, i'll be re-reading the event POVs and will keep these ideas in mind.

 

[sweetsunray]

Interesting:

So, you claim the pigeon pie was poisoned, not the wine. But it could have been both. I do like the idea of there being two poison plots going on simultaneously. On the one hand, one amethyst is indeed missing and Olenna was the one who picked it from Sansa's hairnet, and the wine did have the purple color that matches the strangler. And having Joffrey poisoned while eating pigeon pie was the ideal moment to make it appear like he accidentally choked on his pie.

But it's indeed odd that Oberyn, a man known to use poison as his weapon, and indeed he does at least with Gregor Clegane is making such remarks and well is present throughout the whole plot. I for one at least consider it possible that he poisoned Tywin in such a way that he ended up with something serious that affected his bowels and later causes such a nauseating stench. Except for a long time I wondered how we could ever get such a reveal, if Oberyn is dead already and his mistress is basically out of the book-plot picture. I'd say it's Daemon Sand who might give us more information on this. He was Oberyn's squire and loved the man, was at KL, and he travels with Arianne in tWoW and tries to advize her several times in those chapters (and on top of that is also in love with Arianne).

[Aebram]

Wasn't the pigeon pie eaten by a number of other people besides Joffrey?  No one else died.

[Ygrain]

Just a couple of things. First, the strangler works by being dissolved in wine, the Cressen prologue tells us this. Second, the most convenient moment for poisoning Joff's wine was during cutting the pie, after which pigeon pie was to be served. So, the excuse of blaming it on the pigeon pie could have been prepared in advance. Third, Tyrion was served a slice of the pie, i.e. other guests were served slices of the very same pie. Hence, Tyrion's specific portion would have had to be poisoned separately. Since the custom of the time was not individual plates for each guests prepared elsewhere like we do today, his plate would have had to be poisoned by a particular server while slicing the pie or pouring it over with sauce, right before Tyrion.

[Yaya]

the more i think on this the more i like the double poison proposal - it sure is a fun idea!

one thing - i have not read about the DMB/Dornish Master Plan - could someone summarize that in a elevator pitch; what makes it different from what Pedro Luiz has proposed? 

or does it matter? 

i have never trusted Oberyn & do not doubt that he was up to something there. 

 

[Pedro Luiz]

15 hours ago, Aebram said:

Wasn't the pigeon pie eaten by a number of other people besides Joffrey?  No one else died.

I'm talking here about Tyrion's specific slice of pingeon pie.

[Hugorfonics]

 

I dont see Oberyn as a poisoner. With regards to Tywin, he poisoned him to have a tummy ache? That's laughable.

Regarding Oberyn trying to kill Lord Tyrion of Winterfell and the Rock, I too dont see it.  Mainly Martell specifically wants the heads of Tywin and Gregor, the ones responsible for dragonspawn, not Sansa and Tyrion. Furthermore for Tyrions future to be frightening would mean that knightly, smug ass, son of a prince has to admit that the Imp is worthy of being feared, which I dont see happening. Like whatever Petyr and Olenna planned at, for months, required lots of preparation. Do we really see the Red Viper prepping himself to kill a dwarf?

 

I do agree however that the PW was strictly Tyrion and Sansa induced. Sansa was the reason Olenna joined the alliance. Her hand and prospects were the reason an attempt was made on Tyrions life. By Petyr and Olenna, the ones who only agreed to peace talks because Tyrion set the meeting and Joff (Sansa) was no longer engaged

[Dreadscythe95]

I think that at this point we have strong clues that Joffrey was never the target of the poison.

There are two seperate persons who were poisoned imo.

1. Tyrion Lannister

2. Tywin Lannster (yup)

Tyrion was poisoned by The Tyrells. They wanted ot get rid of him because they realised his value to the Lannisters (and threat to them) and more importantly because they wanted Sansa and Tywin forced Tyrion to marry her.  

Tywin was probably poisoned the night that Tyrion killed him (or maybe he was poisoned in small doses for some time). Tyrion finds him in the toilet and we know that his corpse was smelling unusally badly. Martin doesn't stop refering to that fact many times during AFFC. The biggest possibility is that The Martells were poisoning Tywin for revenge. When he died everyone would blame Oberyn for the Murder and he would ask for a trial by combat. The Lannisters would probably pick The Mountain and Oberyn's vengeance would be complete. How did Oberyn poison him though? The answer is probably Shae, she was a Martell agent all along and this was probably the reason she approached Tyrion in the first place. Of course if that's the case then what about Amory Lorch, he should die for the vengeance plan to be true and there is no way for Oberyn to have predicted his death. Except if The Brave Companions were working for the Martells all along. Think of it. We know that The Brave companions betray Tywin lannister, the richest and strongest man in Westeros to align themselves with Roose Bolton, a far poorer man that was not even Warden of The North and this all happened when Amory Lorch had Harrenhal and Roose wanted to take it. Everything points out to a Martell conspiracy to kill everyone that has a part in Elia's murder.

As for Littlefinger, the biggest possibility is that he was lying when he said to Sansa that The Tyrells wanted to kill Joffrey. Littlefinger knew that The Tyrells had influenced Sansa a lot and he probably wanted to put her against them. Also Littlefinger probably played a part in convincing the Tyrells that Tyrion was a threat to them. Littlefinger seems to gamble a lot, he is an opportunit and he tries to turn every situation to his advantage.

[John Suburbs]

On 3/18/2020 at 4:45 AM, Pedro Luiz said:

snip

This is the most complex mystery in the book right now, and like a lot of people I think you only add unnecessary additional complexity by proposing multiple poisons, plots, plotters etc.

The simplest, most direct explanation is that Littlefinger and Lady Olenna were the only two plotters, the only target was Tyrion, and that the poison was placed in Tyrion's pie by Lady Olenna just as the pigeons took flight. There was not, could not have been, any poison in Joffrey's wine.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

1 minute ago, John Suburbs said:

This is the most complex mystery in the book right now, and like a lot of people I think you only add unnecessary additional complexity by proposing multiple poisons, plots, plotters etc.

The simplest, most direct explanation is that Littlefinger and Lady Olenna were the only two plotters, the only target was Tyrion, and that the poison was placed in Tyrion's pie by Lady Olenna just as the pigeons took flight. There was not, could not have been, any poison in Joffrey's wine.

I wondered when my fellow pie-poisoner would show up. 

[Aebram]

Not sure if this is helpful, but it just occurred to me to wonder: why is Sansa even involved in this plot? If Lady Olenna wanted to poison someone at the feast, surely she could have smuggled in a tiny crystal of Strangler without help. Instead she relied on a drunken fool and a naive teenage girl to complete the plot. That doesn't seem like the most reliable way to go about it.

[Hugorfonics]

23 minutes ago, Aebram said:

Not sure if this is helpful, but it just occurred to me to wonder: why is Sansa even involved in this plot? If Lady Olenna wanted to poison someone at the feast, surely she could have smuggled in a tiny crystal of Strangler without help. Instead she relied on a drunken fool and a naive teenage girl to complete the plot. That doesn't seem like the most reliable way to go about it.

The entire reason for the PW was to kidnap Sansa. With such a suspect plot going on it makes sense to keep other agents out of the scheme.

And Dontos was a drunk fool, however once upon a time someone knighted him. This is usually done for a good reason.

Also, since forever, the PW has been associated with the Stangler. Its a fair assumption I suppose, but an assumption none the less

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Aebram said:

Not sure if this is helpful, but it just occurred to me to wonder: why is Sansa even involved in this plot? If Lady Olenna wanted to poison someone at the feast, surely she could have smuggled in a tiny crystal of Strangler without help. Instead she relied on a drunken fool and a naive teenage girl to complete the plot. That doesn't seem like the most reliable way to go about it.

Lady Olenna did not join the plot until after Sansa's marriage to Tyrion and after the Red Wedding, which made Sansa the Lady of Winterfell, meaning Tyrion becomes Lord of Winterfell and Tywin adds the North to his collection of realms that now gives him the ability to marshall an army that could defeat the Tyrells.

It was Littlefinger who gave the poison and the hairnet to Sansa through Dontos, since he had no other safe place to keep it while still ensuring he could have her, the poison and the eventual poisoner and target together in the same place at the same time. Lady Olenna became the eventual poisoner and Tyrion became the eventual target (through LF's manipulation, BTW), so all that was needed was for Lady O to palm the crystal off the hairnet and slip it into Tyrion's pie as the doves were taking flight. That's pretty much it.

[The Green Bard]

On 3/18/2020 at 4:45 AM, Pedro Luiz said:

if Joffrey chokes on his pie

Joffrey doesn't choke on his pie.  He chokes on Tyrion's pie, as you pointed out later.  I agree with your conclusion on this.  Dontos's words are good support of it.  Only the trial and Tyrion's own supposition makes us think that it was the wine.

On 3/18/2020 at 4:45 AM, Pedro Luiz said:

Evidence suggests there might have been a second plot aiming at Tyrion

I think that you are making an already too complicated plot even more complicated.  First you suggest that LF wanted to kill Joffrey, a crime for which he admits having no motive, then you claim that he wants to frame Tyrion for the murder.  Then you claim that some other person actually wanted to simultaneously kill Tyrion?  It begs incredulity.  Clearly you have studied Preston Jacobs theory on this subject, but decided that the whole affair should be more complicated and less META.  I don't understand why you should think this.  

On 3/23/2020 at 1:25 PM, John Suburbs said:

The simplest, most direct explanation is that Littlefinger and Lady Olenna were the only two plotters, the only target was Tyrion, and that the poison was placed in Tyrion's pie by Lady Olenna just as the pigeons took flight.

No.  The simplest explanation is that Littlefinger was the only plotter, that he told Dontos only the bare minimum, and that he wanted to kill Tyrion, not Joffrey.  Preston Jacobs does a pretty good video on it.  The only complicating factor is that he requires one more person on the daias to take the poison from Sansa's hairnet and put it in the pie.  He settles on an un-named server.  My only issue with Preston's assumption here is the random server.  I find it highly unlikely that Littlefinger would do this, because, with Dontos, he proves that he is not the type of person who leaves witnesses behind.  Either Olenna or this random server would be witnesses; I don't think he involved either in his plot.  

Littlefinger's story that he worked with Olenna seems nonsensical to, and it is very possible that he made it up on the spot.  Let's just assume that she wanted to kill Joffrey.  This seems reasonable, given her actions with Sansa.  What isn't reasonable is for her to involve Littlefinger in such a plot. What possible reason would she have to involve him?  How would she even start the conversation?  How could she trust him?  Littlefinger already tattled on her plan to wed Sansa to Wyllas.  No, Littlefinger probably told Sansa this to disorient her.  Recall that she was the one who supplied the name of the person who adjusted her hair net.  Littlefinger may have just went with it, lying from there.      

I also eliminate the server for the reason I discussed above.  However, tootlesoficeandfire.wordpress.com has an insane essay that may supply an alternative to Preston's server X.  He posits that Sansa poisoned the pie herself, though not consciously, that Littlefinger had done it to her through some sort of mind control.  

Now, I am not going to say that I think any of these things is ironclad or proven, but If I were forced, I'd say I am most intrigued by that final possibility.  IMO, Littlefinger does have the ability to enter someone's mind, as evidenced by Ned's vision in the black cells.

Quote

The king heard him. "You stiff-necked fool," he muttered, "too proud to listen. Can you eat pride, Stark? Will honor shield your children?" Cracks ran down his face, fissures opening in the flesh, and he reached up and ripped the mask away. It was not Robert at all; it was Littlefinger, grinning, mocking him. When he opened his mouth to speak, his lies turned to pale grey moths and took wing.

Those are Littlefinger's words, IMO his attempt to persuade Ned to denounce his coup attempt not long before Varys shows up in Ned's cell to do the same.

[Lord Browndodd]

4 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

...

No.  The simplest explanation is that Littlefinger was the only plotter, that he told Dontos only the bare minimum, and that he wanted to kill Tyrion, not Joffrey.  Preston Jacobs does a pretty good video on it.  The only complicating factor is that he requires one more person on the daias to take the poison from Sansa's hairnet and put it in the pie.  He settles on an un-named server.  My only issue with Preston's assumption here is the random server.  I find it highly unlikely that Littlefinger would do this, because, with Dontos, he proves that he is not the type of person who leaves witnesses behind.  Either Olenna or this random server would be witnesses; I don't think he involved either in his plot.  

...

If we don't know who this random server was, how do we know he is still alive?

It is an odd way of writing a mystery though, making the killer someone who is not referenced in the text, especially as the wedding is crawling with agents of Littlefinger.

 

[The Green Bard]

2 hours ago, Lord Browndodd said:

If we don't know who this random server was, how do we know he is still alive?

It is an odd way of writing a mystery though, making the killer someone who is not referenced in the text, especially as the wedding is crawling with agents of Littlefinger.

 

If you read my full comment, you'll see that I share the same reservation as you.  I reject the server solution for the same reason that Littlefinger killed Dontos.  He would tie up loose ends.  He does not leave witnesses behind.  It's also why I don't think he worked with Olenna on the plot.  

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

No.  The simplest explanation is that Littlefinger was the only plotter, that he told Dontos only the bare minimum, and that he wanted to kill Tyrion, not Joffrey.  Preston Jacobs does a pretty good video on it.  The only complicating factor is that he requires one more person on the daias to take the poison from Sansa's hairnet and put it in the pie.  He settles on an un-named server.  My only issue with Preston's assumption here is the random server.  I find it highly unlikely that Littlefinger would do this, because, with Dontos, he proves that he is not the type of person who leaves witnesses behind.  Either Olenna or this random server would be witnesses; I don't think he involved either in his plot.  

Littlefinger's story that he worked with Olenna seems nonsensical to, and it is very possible that he made it up on the spot.  Let's just assume that she wanted to kill Joffrey.  This seems reasonable, given her actions with Sansa.  What isn't reasonable is for her to involve Littlefinger in such a plot. What possible reason would she have to involve him?  How would she even start the conversation?  How could she trust him?  Littlefinger already tattled on her plan to wed Sansa to Wyllas.  No, Littlefinger probably told Sansa this to disorient her.  Recall that she was the one who supplied the name of the person who adjusted her hair net.  Littlefinger may have just went with it, lying from there.      

I also eliminate the server for the reason I discussed above.  However, tootlesoficeandfire.wordpress.com has an insane essay that may supply an alternative to Preston's server X.  He posits that Sansa poisoned the pie herself, though not consciously, that Littlefinger had done it to her through some sort of mind control.  

Now, I am not going to say that I think any of these things is ironclad or proven, but If I were forced, I'd say I am most intrigued by that final possibility.  IMO, Littlefinger does have the ability to enter someone's mind, as evidenced by Ned's vision in the black cells.

Those are Littlefinger's words, IMO his attempt to persuade Ned to denounce his coup attempt not long before Varys shows up in Ned's cell to do the same.

 

This is not Lady Olenna involving LF in her plot, it's the other way around. Dontos is working for LF, LF set up Sansa with the poison and the hairnet because he had no other safe place to keep it at that time. Lady O did not become involved until after Tyrion married Sansa and after the Red Wedding, all of which made Tyrion a direct threat to the future of House Tyrell.

Lady Olenna does not know, cannot know, that LF was the one who ratted out the Willas plot. It could have been Varys, Sansa confiding in one of her maids, an overheard conversation with Margaery . . . 

Lady Olenna clearly took the poison from the hairnet. There was no wind that day, and the whole purpose of a hairnet is to keep the hair in place even if the wind is blowing. It would have required quite a gust to mess up her hair and this would surely have been noticed by someone. Sansa name Lady O to Petyr later, after he asked her who adjusted her hair on the way in. I refuse to believe that this was yet another incredible lucky coincidence for the most incredibly lucky man on the planet.

Lady Olenna was also on her feet very close to Tyrion behind the head table just before the cutting ceremony began. The pie was also there given the speed at which it was served right after the ceremony. So now we have Olenna with the poison and the pie that she is certain is going to Tyrion (most likely because she orchestrated it this way) all in the same place right when the servants eyes are drawn up by the doves taking flight. A split second is all it takes to pinch the crystal into the pie, and she even has a better-then 90 percent chance of knowing which part of the slice will be Tyrion's one and only bite -- the pointy end, which is also the easiest to poison.

So there is no need to rely on unnamed, unknown trusted servants, false memories, mind control or magic. The two people with the most to gain from Tyrion's death did this all alone, with no need to risk somebody telling -- because someone always tells.