Jump to content

Purple Wedding, Finally Solved.


Pedro Luiz

Recommended Posts

An interesting theory, but alas, I don't buy it. However it was worked out, I still remain convinced that Olenna was behind it, probably with Margaery's own connivance, and the object was to be shot of Joff to clear the way to Tommen, who would be as much more manipulable puppet. That LF was involved I also do not doubt. And though these two conspired together, I also believe that LF was double-dealing from the start: he wanted Sansa from the day he first met her.

By plotting with Olenna he gave himself the opportunity to kidnap Sansa ('rescue', yeah right....) while no doubt promising faithfully on his mother's grave that he would deliver her to Highgarden.

I am also sure the fatal agent was the Strangler, in the wine, and the pie was as innocent as Tyrion.

Quote

ASOS 625-626

The king’s chalice was on the table where he’d left it. Tyrion had to climb back onto his chair to reach it. Joff yanked it from his hands and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin. “My lord,” Margaery said, “we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us.” “My uncle hasn’t eaten his pigeon pie.” Holding the chalice one-handed, Joff jammed his other into Tyrion’s pie. “It’s ill luck not to eat the pie,” he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon. “See, it’s good.” Spitting out flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. “Dry, though. Needs washing down.” Joff took a swallow of wine and coughed again, more violently. “I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof kof, pig, Uncle. I want …” His words broke up in a fit of coughing. Margaery looked at him with concern. “Your Grace?” “It’s, kof, the pie, noth—kof, pie.” Joff took another drink, or tried to, but all the wine came spewing back out when another spate of coughing doubled him over. His face was turning red. “I, kof, I can’t, kof kof kof kof …”

Much is made of the pie, but the poisoned wine, which Joff quaffed eagerly (which is what is meant by his 'throat working') whilst quick is not INSTANT. He had to swallow some of the wine for the poison to work. It did work quickly. Quickly enough to prevent him swallowing any of the pie:

 

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion IX

Maesters Ballabar and Frenken opened the second day of trial. They had opened King Joffrey's noble corpse as well, they swore, and found no morsel of pigeon pie nor any other food lodged in the royal throat. "It was poison that killed him, my lords," said Ballabar, as Frenken nodded gravely.

Joff blamed the pie for being dry, but that was because he couldn't swallow it. He couldn't swallow at all by this point because the Strangler had already closed his throat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hello everybody.

  1. I'm not arguing that Olenna wasn't planing to kill Joffrey. My point here is that, since she wanted to do this after the feast, Joffrey's death coming much earlier + coming from Tyrion's specific slice of pie sugests that he's pie was also poisoned. That would only be possible if there wore two murdering plots.
  2. Yes, I also considered the possibility of only Tyrion being the target. But if the imp was the only one meant to die there, why Sir Dontos was so sure that Joff would die and Tyrion would be acused?
  3. Sure it is a rather complex theory, with focus on details that GRRM may have never intended to mean a thing. But that's what it is: theory. It may be proven right, may be proven wrong, may never be proven at all. I'm confident about it because I could use logic, but then again, some incongruences could be GRRM not paying that much attention;
  4. There are still two books to go. It means that we are probably going to be feed with more information, so who knows?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

They'd have to tell eachother.  that is a gigantic risk, huuuge.  What reason does either have to trust eachother?

They don't, but they both have a mutual interest in removing Tyrion. This is why LF just didn't hand over the poison to Lady O ahead of time. He doesn't trust her. He's not going to give her any evidence to be used against him until he is safe and sound on his boat ready to split to Braavos at the first sign of trouble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

This is why LF just didn't hand over the poison to Lady O ahead of time. He doesn't trust her. He's not going to give her any evidence to be used against him until he is safe and sound on his boat ready to split to Braavos at the first sign of trouble.

You're focusing in the logistics.  I am talking about how you start on this conspiracy.  What reason would she possibly have to think the man is down for murder.  How does this conversation begin?

I know how it went with Bronn suggesting it, he was shut down completely, even though Varys used it against Tyrion in the trial anyway.  

And, now you are saying that Olenna's target was Tyrion too.  This makes Littlefinger's story to Sansa complete bullshit anyway, because he claimed they conspired together to kill Joffrey, not Tyrion.  Why do we believe Littlefinger about the story about the conspirators, but not the conspiracy?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/25/2020 at 3:26 PM, Pedro Luiz said:

I'm not arguing that Olenna wasn't planing to kill Joffrey. My point here is that, since she wanted to do this after the feast, Joffrey's death coming much earlier + coming from Tyrion's specific slice of pie sugests that he's pie was also poisoned. That would only be possible if there wore two murdering plots.

Once your realize that there was a plan to poison Tyrion's pie, why do you think there was another plot?  I think your focus on the bedding is leading you astray, I find no evidence there tied to any murder plot.  It's just a mention of a normal thing that would expectedly happen at a wedding.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/25/2020 at 1:54 PM, Rufus Snow said:

Joff blamed the pie for being dry, but that was because he couldn't swallow it. He couldn't swallow at all by this point because the Strangler had already closed his throat.

If there was no pie there, he swallowed the pie.  it wasn't closed yet.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

You're focusing in the logistics.  I am talking about how you start on this conspiracy.  What reason would she possibly have to think the man is down for murder.  How does this conversation begin?

I know how it went with Bronn suggesting it, he was shut down completely, even though Varys used it against Tyrion in the trial anyway.  

And, now you are saying that Olenna's target was Tyrion too.  This makes Littlefinger's story to Sansa complete bullshit anyway, because he claimed they conspired together to kill Joffrey, not Tyrion.  Why do we believe Littlefinger about the story about the conspirators, but not the conspiracy?

The conspiracy is not based on trust, but mutual interests. They both need Tyrion dead. Littlefinger would begin the conversation like he always does, casually mentioning the marriage, the Red Wedding, etc. And if Lady O doesn't already realize the danger that Tyrion now poses to House Tyrell, LF can bring her to that conclusion like he always does -- make it think it was her idea. But I doubt he has to do that because she is a smart cookie and knows full well the threat Tyrion poses. Once their mutual interests have been identified, it's just a matter of getting the poison, deploying it and other logistical concerns -- most of which LF has already worked out. Neither of them have to trust the other until the wedding when Lady O finally takes possession of the poison. Until then, it's just his word against hers, and vice versa.

Bronn is not Littlefinger, and LF (and LO) are smart enough to have this conversation well away from the Red Keep.

Yes, Littlefinger is lying to Sansa. Shocking. Littlefinger often mixes lies with the truth. He knows it was lady O who adjusted the hairnet. That Lady O happened to do this and also happened to be standing right next to the pie just before it was served is coincidental enough; to now have LF aware of this insignificant little factoid when he is supposed to be out on his boat way out in the bay is beyond plausible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

You're focusing in the logistics.  I am talking about how you start on this conspiracy.  What reason would she possibly have to think the man is down for murder.  How does this conversation begin?

It began when Tyrion sent Petyr over to win Margerys hand, the price for Tyrells allegiance was apparently Tyrions head

5 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

And, now you are saying that Olenna's target was Tyrion too.  This makes Littlefinger's story to Sansa complete bullshit anyway, because he claimed they conspired together to kill Joffrey, not Tyrion.  Why do we believe Littlefinger about the story about the conspirators, but not the conspiracy?

Quote

Petyr smiled. "I will wager you that at some point during the evening someone told you that your hair net was crooked and straightened it for you."

Sansa raised a hand to her mouth. "You cannot mean . . . she wanted to take me to Highgarden, to marry me to her grandson . . ."

How else could he know that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The conspiracy is not based on trust, but mutual interests. They both need Tyrion dead. Littlefinger would begin the conversation like he always does, casually mentioning the marriage, the Red Wedding, etc. And if Lady O doesn't already realize the danger that Tyrion now poses to House Tyrell

House Tyrell wanting Joffrey dead I can buy (but it would make more sense to me after Margaery had born his heir).  Littlefinger wanting Tyrion dead is almost a no-brainer.  So, from the motivation standpoint, OP's ideas stand up better than yours IMO (though certainly not from a complexity standpoint).  

The main threat Tyrion poses to house Tyrell is that he was used as Tywin's pawn to block them from marrying Wyllas to Sansa.  Now that they are already married, Olenna is smart enough, as you say, to know that it will only lead to her marriage to Lancel, or Davin, or Moonboy for all I know.  Garlan, notably of House Tyrell, seems to genuinely respect Tyrion.  Given that he doesn't seem very oaf-ish, I have a feeling that he shares his grandmothers' counsels.  I am not at all convinced that killing Tyrion is in the Tyrell's best interest. 

Also, you say there was no wind, but that is also not convincing to me, because Sansa certainly didn't object to Olenna using it as an excuse to adjust her hairnet.  I agree that involving a server is not LF's MO, given how hetied up the loose end with Dontos, so I do have to repeat that mental manipulation of Sansa is the least complex option here, although I am certainly not wholly convinced of it. It is the least complex. It implicates Sansa, so she has to flee.  It kills Tyrion, so she no longer has a husband and so that the threat he poses to Littlefinger is alleviated.  It accomplishes all his goals.  The only problem is that the plan didn't work. And it is supported by the text.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

. It implicates Sansa, so she has to flee.   

No it doesnt.  If Sansa were to confess that Olenna touched her hairnet, one designed by Ser Dontos, Quyburn would have Thornes singing left and right, as if Butterbumps became her guard.

And Sansa doesnt have to flee until her husband was questioned for murder, fortunately she was fleeing regardless because that's the whole point of this escapade. 

41 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

I am not at all convinced that killing Tyrion is in the Tyrell's best interest. 

They want Sansas hand, this is evident because they never shut up about it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

No it doesnt.  If Sansa were to confess that Olenna touched her hairnet, one designed by Ser Dontos, Quyburn would have Thornes singing left and right, as if Butterbumps became her guard.

And Sansa doesnt have to flee until her husband was questioned for murder, fortunately she was fleeing regardless because that's the whole point of this escapade. 

They want Sansas hand, this is evident because they never shut up about it

What do you mean, they never shut up about it?  They don't say a word to Sansa after her wedding until Joffrey's wedding.  And Olenna's question about leaving was made with Tyrion standing right there.  Of course she's going to say no.  They lost interest in Sansa when she married Tyrion.

If Tyrion gets arrested, Sansa gets arrested alongside him.  And they find the murder weapon, and she only remembered Olenna's adjusting it when LF reminded her.

Joffrey was a problem for the Tyrells.  He would likely harm Margaery and therefore anger Loras.  Plus he was likely to become another Aerys II.  They don't want to be around for that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

What do you mean, they never shut up about it?  They don't say a word to Sansa after her wedding until Joffrey's wedding.  And Olenna's question about leaving was made with Tyrion standing right there.  Of course she's going to say no. 

Why would Olenna ask that question then? Shes a politician, if we know Sansa would decline then of course so does Thornes. Shits like one of Mercys plays, and Olenna knows her lines. 

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

They lost interest in Sansa when she married Tyrion.

Sansa is the north. You dont just lose interest in half the realm

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

If Tyrion gets arrested, Sansa gets arrested alongside him.  And they find the murder weapon, and she only remembered Olenna's adjusting it when LF reminded her.

If Sansas prosecuted then shes prosecuted, any two bit paid for lawyer would ask if anything unusual happend or if she came into contact with anyone. Not to mention the missing fucking amethyst, a pretty decent piece of physical evidence

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Joffrey was a problem for the Tyrells.  He would likely harm Margaery 

eh, maybe. Sansa was a special type of girl for Joffrey. She saw him at his weakest, Margaery never did. Furthermore Margerys father didnt call him a bastard or try to kick him off his throne.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

and therefore anger Loras. 

So then why send him to the KG? Also, who cares? Some fear may be good for Joff

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Plus he was likely to become another Aerys II.  They don't want to be around for that.

Arranging the death of a king off hearsay is quite extreme.

If Joff turns rancid then they could put him down, till then, commiting high treason is a risky decision

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Why would Olenna ask that question then? Shes a politician, if we know Sansa would decline then of course so does Thornes. Shits like one of Mercys plays, and Olenna knows her lines. 

Sansa is the north. You dont just lose interest in half the realm

If Sansas prosecuted then shes prosecuted, any two bit paid for lawyer would ask if anything unusual happend or if she came into contact with anyone. Not to mention the missing fucking amethyst, a pretty decent piece of physical evidence

eh, maybe. Sansa was a special type of girl for Joffrey. She saw him at his weakest, Margaery never did. Furthermore Margerys father didnt call him a bastard or try to kick him off his throne.

So then why send him to the KG? Also, who cares? Some fear may be good for Joff

Arranging the death of a king off hearsay is quite extreme.

If Joff turns rancid then they could put him down, till then, commiting high treason is a risky decision

I have no idea why she asked.  Maybe being polite, maybe checking non-verbal reaction.  But no way is Sansa agreeing with her husband standing next to her.

The North is half the realm.  The half that is isolated, impoverished, underpopulated, with lousy weather and obstreperous bannermen.  Nice if you get it handed to you on a plate.  But hardly worth the trouble otherwise, especially since it is a long way from the Reach.

Joffrey's own public acts are enough to show he is an uncontrollable loose cannon well on his way to becoming a tyrant.  Tommen is much nicer and more malleable.  And if you're lucky, you can be Queen Regent as well.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I have no idea why she asked.  Maybe being polite, maybe checking non-verbal reaction. 

She was being shrewd. So when theyre going to Highgarden that night Olenna could be all like, I told ya so. 

13 minutes ago, Nevets said:

But no way is Sansa agreeing with her husband standing next to her.

Obviously. Thats why she was planning on icing her husband

13 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The North is half the realm.  The half that is isolated,

Umm. From what? The south? Itself? Eastwatch by the sea?

32 minutes ago, Nevets said:

, impoverished,

Compared to what? I mean, regardless, its not

35 minutes ago, Nevets said:

, underpopulated,

Ok, I know the north all around sucks is a popular saying around here, but its not true.

Citations please

36 minutes ago, Nevets said:

, with lousy weather

bundle up

36 minutes ago, Nevets said:

and obstreperous bannermen. 

We're talking about Reachmen. Thats all they know

37 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Nice if you get it handed to you on a plate.  But hardly worth the trouble otherwise, especially since it is a long way from the Reach.

Half the realm. Shits worth as much trouble as you can handle

39 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Joffrey's own public acts are enough to show he is an uncontrollable loose cannon well on his way to becoming a tyrant. 

According to Tyrell thats all hearsay

40 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Tommen is much nicer and more malleable. 

Then why have Loras in the KG?

40 minutes ago, Nevets said:

 And if you're lucky, you can be Queen Regent as well.

Who? Thornes? Shes in highgarden!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

She was being shrewd. So when theyre going to Highgarden that night Olenna could be all like, I told ya so. 

Obviously. Thats why she was planning on icing her husband

Umm. From what? The south? Itself? Eastwatch by the sea?

Compared to what? I mean, regardless, its not

Ok, I know the north all around sucks is a popular saying around here, but its not true.

Citations please

bundle up

We're talking about Reachmen. Thats all they know

Half the realm. Shits worth as much trouble as you can handle

According to Tyrell thats all hearsay

Then why have Loras in the KG?

Who? Thornes? Shes in highgarden!

The plot was in the works shortly after the Joffrey/Margaery match was agreed to.  Sansa received the hairnet at the end of ACOK, long before her marriage to Tyrion.  And the date of her departure was set as the day of the wedding.

I think LF was hiding the poison in case the Tyrells betrayed him.

At that point, I can't think of a reason for the Tyrells to want Tyrion dead.  As for Joffrey, they had heard stories but weren't sure, so asked Sansa, who would have first hand information.  They probably asked Court regulars as well.

I don't think even LF expected Sansa's marriage to Tyrion.  He just wanted to keep her from Highgarden.

By the way, the Queen Regent would have been Margaery, as Tommen's wife.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

Once your realize that there was a plan to poison Tyrion's pie, why do you think there was another plot?  I think your focus on the bedding is leading you astray, I find no evidence there tied to any murder plot.  It's just a mention of a normal thing that would expectedly happen at a wedding.  

Because Sir Dontos thought that Joff would die. I made it clear at the post.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The plot was in the works shortly after the Joffrey/Margaery match was agreed to.  Sansa received the hairnet at the end of ACOK, long before her marriage to Tyrion.  And the date of her departure was set as the day of the wedding.

I think LF was hiding the poison in case the Tyrells betrayed him.

Huh? The poison was in the hairnet, Sansa was hiding it.

So the plot had to start in acok, agreed. Because Petyr leaves KL before Olenna arrives, and who wants to talk in front of a bunch of spiders anyway

43 minutes ago, Nevets said:

At that point, I can't think of a reason for the Tyrells to want Tyrion dead.  

 

I don't think even LF expected Sansa's marriage to Tyrion.  He just wanted to keep her from Highgarden.

Ok, so, acok, LF comes a knockin. So hes all a cause and effect guy, so if Joffrey marries Tyrell then Sansas single. If Tyrell and Lannisters a thing, then Robb, with his burnt home and flayed brothers, is not. LF (and Thornes, whos supposed to be all skillful with it) can not see the future, but he can see better then most (or at least Ned and 11 year old Sansa).

So, cause and effect, Sansa the north and a Lannister ward is single. Well Jaimes kg, Tywin likes his lonesome and Tommons a bit young. It has to be the imp

49 minutes ago, Nevets said:

As for Joffrey, they had heard stories but weren't sure, so asked Sansa, who would have first hand information.  They probably asked Court regulars as well.

I mean the stories were about smacking Sansa out her dress in court, so id assume shed have first hand info. But again, in acok this is hearsay. 

And again, if the plans to murk the crossbow king why send Loras to kg?

53 minutes ago, Nevets said:

By the way, the Queen Regent would have been Margaery, as Tommen's wife.

Shes a teenager, why give her power when shes not even (or hardly) of age. Plus, where's Cersei in this scenario?

53 minutes ago, Pedro Luiz said:

Because Sir Dontos thought that Joff would die. I made it clear at the post.

Ser Dontos heard the bells ring that the king is dead, like they rang for Robert. A knight, even a drunk one, can summarize what happened then

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Ser Dontos heard the bells ring that the king is dead, like they rang for Robert. A knight, even a drunk one, can summarize what happened then

I find it spectacular that he managed not only to deduce that, but also that Tyrion would be acused as well. Which means that he didn't expect Tyrion to die that night.

Did you read the second section of the theory?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...