Jump to content

Muh muh muh means tuh testing - Covid #6


Larry of the Lawn

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Ok you might have to go without some luxury goods for awhile?  Or not remodel the kitchen?  Or miss some bill payments and ruin your credit?  These things suck but they are very easy to live with compared to say your average medieval standard of living.  

Given that I’m already unemployed this is a bit more than a mere “inconvenience” for my family and myself.  

I’d like to keep my family fed.  

Minor in the grand scheme of civilization?
 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some odd reports there. Other countries seem to be holding to the pattern that younger people are much less at risk. UK deaths at 150 (and counting) and the youngest death so far was 45, from a massive underlying health condition. Some reports from China, Italy and the USA suggesting much more younger people seem to be badly hit than in other countries. Unclear why, although relative health/exercise levels may be to blame (which may explain the US but not China or Italy) and there's also some reports of a correlation (but not confirmed causation yet) between blood type and how hard the virus hits, with Type O being much less adversely affected. That may explain figures in China (where Type O is less common) but not in the USA.

The Italy figures may also be warped because of how centralised the outbreak has been in one particular region. The local hospitals are utterly overwhelmed so many of the young people who'd survive with some oxygen assistance have instead sadly passed away, whilst in the UK (at the moment) and many other places they'd have been saved.  

Also some early reports from a Chinese paper (based on mass testing in Wuhan) that people who catch the virus but are asymptomatic may be far, far higher than previously expected, which would push the fatality rate right down (not a good thing in the sense that thousands will still die and the isolation steps will still save thousands, but good in the sense that herd immunity should be instilled in the population much more quickly). It's probable that that will only be testable once the worst of the outbreak is over in each country. Some European doctors advising this is not matching what they're figures are showing, that most people reported as asymptomatic do go on to develop symptoms, just a few days later than most, but I'd assume the Chinese would have accounted for that, and the European picture is warped by the outbreak still being in the growth stage whilst the Chinese have had some distance and time to analyse the figures more calmly.

Not sure they do tbh. Badly hit isn't the same as dead. I think 'young people' (20-44 or so) aren't dying of this, save in very small numbers, but are needing very serious medical attention in unexpectedly high numbers. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How long did it take to “come back” from the Black Death?

It depends.  Depopulation was so great that in many parts of Spain and France and Italy -- they didn't come back at all.

For the rich it didn't matter.  Many of them got richer, taking over lands lost to families who had died out.  The only royal who died in the successive waves of bubonic plague in the 14th century was King Edward III's daughter, Joan, during her trek from Aquitaine to Spain to marry Peter of Castille. Despite the plague, the expedition set out.

Labor shortage -- particularly for agriculture was endemic for centuries in many places, leading to more famines, which led to more epidemics and death.  It depressed Europe's economy until at least the 18th c, though in certain areas there was a rebound, finally, with colonialization starting at the end of the 15th C.  The economic recovery was further slowed by no ceasation of wars.  The 100 Years War raged on anyway, for instance.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Fez said:

There's very few economic estimates that go back that far. This paper makes an attempt though. http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Working-Paper-206-Fouquet-and-Broadberry.pdf

GDP estimates for Italy, Holland, Spain, and England go back to 1300. You can see the massive hit that Italy especially took form the black death on page 5. But remember that the Black Death was far more deadly than Covid-19, and there were less tools to facilitate the economic recovery. It took more time for innovations and ideas to spread.

Thanks, will read and respond later. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

During WWII the US was largely insulated from direct danger of bombing or other violent action.  That allowed it to be the breadbasket of the world while everyone else fought.  
 

COVID-19 is everywhere at the same time.

:(

So... time to sack-up and get in the fight, then? :P

(And I appreciate your own personal situation is extremely tenuous at the moment. Mine is less so, but still somewhat so. But... we're in for a rough 3-6-12-18 months. Things will change. But 0.5-3% death rate isn't cataclysmic. We'll emerge and continue on. Your current employment opportunity looks to be disappearing into smoke - but you'll find other opportunities on the other side of this).

So... we're in for a rough period over the short to medium term. And we might need to rely on government assistance to get through this period. But there is light at the end of the rainbow.

Oh - and forgive me if I'm rambling a little - I'm a bit drunk at the moment. (And think yourself lucky - before typing the "light at the end of the rainbow" bit, I initially broke into a chorus of "tomorrow, is only a day a way". But, even drunk, I managed to reign in that urge)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another interesting finding I hadn't heard before

Wonder if it's because of some pre-existing condition (like lung damage or diabetes maybe) being more common in men; or if its something else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I think 'young people' (20-44 or so) aren't dying of this, save in very small numbers, but are needing very serious medical attention in unexpectedly high numbers. 

If true, this only means they will start dying when the health care system is overwhelmed and there is not enough respirators.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Given that I’m already unemployed this is a bit more than a mere “inconvenience” for my family and myself.  

I’d like to keep my family fed.  

Minor in the grand scheme of civilization?
 

 

Didn't mean to be dismissive.  I've been out of work for months at a time before with no savings in the bank.  It's not easy.  Hoping things are looking up for you soon.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 3CityApache said:

If true, this only means they will start dying when the health care system is overwhelmed and there is not enough respirators.

I was just saying I'm not clear there are big discrepancies between countries in terms of the effect of Covid on the young. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Didn't mean to be dismissive.  I've been out of work for months at a time before with no savings in the bank.  It's not easy.  Hoping things are looking up for you soon.  

And I shouldn’t be focused on my personal issues.  This is much bigger than that.  I’m sorry for being snappy.

I do have a line on another job, just much lower pay than the one that fell through because of the COVID-19 crisis.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Fez said:

Another interesting finding I hadn't heard before

Wonder if it's because of some pre-existing condition (like lung damage or diabetes maybe) being more common in men; or if its something else.

Just chalked it up to the simply stuff: women are smarter, cleaner, and less likely to intentionally put themselves at risk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Soylent Brown said:

Rather than going back to the middle ages, would anyone else mind if we went back to the golden age of piracy instead?

No internet, which sucks, sure, but there would be plenty of grog and parrots!

Given I'm drunk on rum at the moment, I figure I'm three quarters of the way there.

Do we have any volunteers to start up an ASOIAF pirate ship, to navigate our way through these turbulent times? I'm happy to take on a role as deck-hand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Soylent Brown said:

Rather than going back to the middle ages, would anyone else mind if we went back to the golden age of piracy instead?

No internet, which sucks, sure, but there would be plenty of grog and parrots!

I’ve got a medical device warehouse right next to me.

Who needs modern peg legs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh... and because my filters are now fully disengaged...

Earlier today when I was reading Hudson's (I mean Tywin's) melt-down, I was sorely tempted to post this. But it was well after the fact, so I figured it was no longer relevant.

But... my filters are off, now. (Sorry, bud - but you kind of had it coming :P )

 

 

Possibly should be in the gallows humour thread? :dunno:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Shopping updates.

Got my hand on flour. Two packs (household typical amounts) were the max they sold, and all I wanted anyway. Milk, I had to settle for the fat reduced one (1.5% fat instead of 3.5%) like some sort of savage. But hey sacrifices. TP remains elusive, oh, and the city has shut down restaurants. Assuming MacDonald's qualifies as a restaurant in the furthest sense of the word, that means there goes my plan B. Shit got real. They were out of Chocolate cookies, thus I settled for licorice as a treat, like some Dutch! J/k, I like licorice.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Just chalked it up to the simply stuff: women are smarter, cleaner, and less likely to intentionally put themselves at risk.

the data i've just been reading from China showed males were slightly higher in confirmed cases (51.4 - 48.6), but massively higher in deaths (63.8 - 36.2).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Not sure they do tbh. Badly hit isn't the same as dead. I think 'young people' (20-44 or so) aren't dying of this, save in very small numbers, but are needing very serious medical attention in unexpectedly high numbers. 

You have to keep in mind, that at this stage the only ones being tested are the ones who are requiring very serious medical attention.  I really don't think anything has changed.  The younger people are spreading it and the older people are dying from it.  It's certainly in the CDC's (and society as a whole) best interest that younger people believe that they could die from this.  And even if younger people really aren't dying from the disease directly, a collapse of the medical infrastructure surely has a ripple effect, which could cause a loss of service for other significant medical issues.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

And I shouldn’t be focused on my personal issues.  This is much bigger than that.  I’m sorry for being snappy.

I do have a line on another job, just much lower pay than the one that fell through because of the COVID-19 crisis.

 No, you should be, along with community concerns.  My personal social and economic issues 100% influence how I think about these things.  Don't know your exact situation but, it's totally ok to let it inform your decisions and state of mind.  There are millions people in this country in the same situation and when you think and speak about your situation you are thinking of them as well, you are not being self-focused in being concerned about these things, and you shouldn't apologize for it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...