Muh muh muh means tuh testing - Covid #6

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Take care of yourself.  Heal well and quickly.

Yeah, I've been self-isolating because of possible exposure since Monday (? - idk, the days are running together),  and started getting sick Thursday evening. Not worried too much for myself, it's a moderately bad flu - or IS the flu - but 2 of my kids are high-risk, so have been staying away, but don't know if I caught it early enough.

No way I'll be able to get tested though, unless I'm sick enough to need the hospital. I'm worried about the poor population around here who won't seek medical care until it's too late.

[Guest]

Just now, Triskele said:

Dr. Len just said on CNN that it's partly related not to being overhwelmed per se, but that the healthcare workers running out of protective gear is a part of it.  So administering the test is itself a problem now.  What a disaster.

That kind of seems like they're at an inflection point then.

[Fragile Bird]

Well, guys, the analysts at RBC used their math skills to chart graphs of coronavirus cases instead of stocks, as I said a few days ago, and their estimate of the Very Bad Point was 30,500. Monday? Tuesday?

I’ll see if I can find a link and add it here.

[Zorral]

https://www.wlrn.org/post/theres-something-strange-about-floridas-coronavirus-data#stream/0
 

Quote

 

A concerned citizen contacted WLRN this week to share information they have been gathering that raises potential red flags about data the Florida Department of Health and other statewide agencies have been sharing about the crisis. The person wanted to remain anonymous because they are not authorized to talk about the subject, but they did send us links, screenshots and pointed us to spreadsheets that, taken together, raise questions about the state data.

Through the tip and further reporting, we have identified a series of instances where information about reported COVID-19 cases altogether disappeared, was removed and then re-added, or might have been altered in some kind of fundamental way, to the point where it is unclear what’s actually being shown to the public.

“The state data has not been transparent, at the very least. You see some cases that are there in the dataset one day and gone the next day, with no explanation for why that’s happening,” said the tipster. . . .

. . . . COVID numbers behaving strangely

In the early days of the pandemic in Florida, when the numbers were somewhat low, each daily announcement from the Florida Department of Health included a table that listed the location and travel information for each case, along with demographic information about who had contracted COVID-19.

By comparing some of this early data with data released later on, some strange things happen. Warning: the following gets a little bit complicated. 

On March 12, the Florida Department of Health listed several new cases on its daily press release. Included in it were two cases in Sarasota County -- a 50-year-old man and a 70-year-old man; both were out of state residents and it was “unclear” whether they were travel related.

A 24-year-old woman was added in Alachua County. She had traveled to Europe, according to the release.  Local media in Alachua County reported conflicting accounts of the person's sex.

Screenshot of the March 12 release from the Florida Department of Health. The individuals were removed from the statewide data two days later, only to later be added once again in the latest releases.
The following day, on March 13, the 24-year-old woman from Alachua County no longer appears on the table. But suddenly a 20-year-old male in Alachua County appears, without explanation. . . .

 

All those crazy kid spring breakers have dispersed back to the four corners.

Received email one of my students has tested positive -- and seems to have given it to his girlfriend.  He's going home to rich parents on Long Island.  But is continuing with the class, you bet!  

[Altherion]

1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

NYC and LA are saying that they will begin testing only people for whom a positive diagnosis might change their treatment regimen. 

That's...bad, right? Like that means they're already being overwhelmed?

Part of it is that the testing itself consumes valuable protective equipment, but I'm fairly confident that New York has been too efficient with the testing for its own good. The total current number of cases in the US is 25500 (we've just passed Spain for overall third place), but of these, 11700 are in New York. Given that up until last Monday, thousands of these people were on the subway, if NYC was to keep testing, they'd easily find at least a hundred thousand cases and maybe much more than that. Given that the treatment for all but the most severe cases is the same as for the flu and similar diseases (i.e. stay home, rest and try not to infect people), testing everyone with symptoms both wastes resources and risks panic as the number of cases rises.

Of course, the drawback to this approach is that the people who are seriously sick will still have to be tested and this will drive up the mortality rate. New York currently has 60 deaths so this rate is around half a percent, but it will definitely go up if the testing is restricted to people whose treatment might change based on the test.

[john]

Lombardy has tonight banned open air markets and (non-essential) building sites ... as well as stricter measures like all physical activity outdoors and use of vending machines.

But it seems insane that they’re only just now stopping the markets and building sites.

[Fragile Bird]

39 minutes ago, Altherion said:

 

Of course, the drawback to this approach is that the people who are seriously sick will still have to be tested and this will drive up the mortality rate. New York currently has 60 deaths so this rate is around half a percent, but it will definitely go up if the testing is restricted to people whose treatment might change based on the test.

The Italian experience is that death on average occurs 8 days after the person was so sick they showed up at hospital. 14 days + 8, I’d say the end of next week is the time period to watch.

[Castellan]

2 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

Yeah I have hypertension as well so that's something I've been worried about too. There's some hypothesises that certain hypertension medication (ARBs) which block the ACE2 receptor (which is the putative entry mechanism for the virus) may exacerbate the disease. Alternatively there's a case the medication may help and there's even some suggestion of trailing ARBs as a COVID-19 treatment. But the current reported stats just aren't giving the level of detail needed about the cases to form any conclusions. All that's known is there's a strong link between hypertension and severe cases.

So basically whether it's hypertension itself being out of control, the medication for the disease exacerbating the virus, or some other factor involved, at the moment we just don't know. So the advice is to continue any meds as normal for the time being.

Sorry that's probably not too reassuring.

thanks anyway!

[3CityApache]

Just heard of a first case of death during home quarantine, the man died even before he was tested. There's no offical cause of death yet though.

[dornishpen]

I don't know if anyone has posted about this yet and I don't know if the analysis is sound, but this journal article  says that some digestive symptoms (especially lack of appetite) are common and tend to happen before respiratory symptoms and that people with digestive symptoms have worse outcomes.

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, dornishpen said:

I don't know if anyone has posted about this yet and I don't know if the analysis is sound, but this journal article  says that some digestive symptoms (especially lack of appetite) are common and tend to happen before respiratory symptoms and that people with digestive symptoms have worse outcomes.

Well, I should be in good shape then.  All I’ve been doing in the house is stuffing my face.  When the crisis is over I’m going to have to widen the door to get out.  

[Fragile Bird]

  Btw, NY testing numbers shared by the governor yesterday, show 53% of those who tested positive are between 18 and 59.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Regarding numbers, I asked this question in the politics thread but it's more relevant here really-

So hive mind question, I tried Google but didn't find info yet.

Question is- Does anyone know where I can view a state by state list of covid cases per capita?

Several sites list the total cases and deaths for each state, but I've yet to find a place that tells me how many cases as a percentage of population?

[BigFatCoward]

17 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Regarding numbers, I asked this question in the politics thread but it's more relevant here really-

So hive mind question, I tried Google but didn't find info yet.

Question is- Does anyone know where I can view a state by state list of covid cases per capita?

Several sites list the total cases and deaths for each state, but I've yet to find a place that tells me how many cases as a percentage of population?

Can you not just combine the 2 bits of info yourself in excel? 

[Free Northman Reborn]

As an alternative to worldwide economic disaster, how about mandatory self isolation for people over the age of 65 and for those younger people with underlying health conditions - while letting the otherwise healthy workforce aged population continue normal working life. The epidemic can then spread naturally through the younger population without the economy grinding to a halt. 

[Which Tyler]

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2020/03/20/this-commentators-got-no-live-sport-left-so-hes-commentating-on-everyday-life-and-its-brilliant/

[DireWolfSpirit]

34 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Can you not just combine the 2 bits of info yourself in excel? 

I could do some math by dividing each state's population by the number of cases for each state but it would take me a very long time.

I am hoping someone has already published the numbers somewhere. If not, I may resort to it (the calculations) myself,  because it is much more informative to me to know the concentration of cases per a 1000 or 10000 or 100, 000 of population rather than just a state's total number of cases.

Regarding excell, I'm guessing that's some computer software? I don't use a desktop, only a tablet and smartphone for me I'm afraid.

[Isalie]

33 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As an alternative to worldwide economic disaster, how about mandatory self isolation for people over the age of 65 and for those younger people with underlying health conditions - while letting the otherwise healthy workforce aged population continue normal working life. The epidemic can then spread naturally through the younger population without the economy grinding to a halt. 

If you change mandatory to voluntary then id say thats basically swedens approach.

[karaddin]

On 3/21/2020 at 3:24 AM, Soylent Brown said:

No internet, which sucks, sure, but there would be plenty of grog and parrots!

You could devote your quarantine time to watching the anime One Piece which follows an aspiring young pirates quest to become Kind of the Pirates in the golden age of piracy (on his fictional world). It's currently at 924 episodes long which is probably long enough to last an entire quarantine.

12 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I hate to say this, because I've been through grim conversations with my parents (passed on 23 years ago and 10 years ago) but this virus will mean a lot of people need to have those conversations. 

I wasn't born the youngest of 6 to be the one stuck having this conversation with my remaining payment. That's what older siblings are for.

@HelenaExMachina not really much to add but 

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As an alternative to worldwide economic disaster, how about mandatory self isolation for people over the age of 65 and for those younger people with underlying health conditions - while letting the otherwise healthy workforce aged population continue normal working life. The epidemic can then spread naturally through the younger population without the economy grinding to a halt. 

A lot of these people need assistance, not only physical but also emotional and psychological. Who is going to provide that? Should we isolate also those who work with them? 

Furthermore, even if the old and infirm are at high risk. The risk is not negligible for the healthy population. If you have too many infections of healthy people you will overwhelm the hospitals regardless.

I don't see easy solutions