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larrytheimp

Muh muh muh means tuh testing - Covid #6

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

For US he doesn't have an informed guess given how messy and incomplete the reports are. It could be similar or 50x as much. 

I doubt it, but I continue to hope that that's absolutely true. If the infection rate is 50x higher than we what we know of, it means the hospitalization and fatality rates are 50x lower than they seem right now.

And I doubt it because that would mean the virus is much less dangerous than the flu. Which would be rather surprising to me, considering just how bad it can get for people who are hospitalized; including otherwise healthy, younger adults.

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It depends how recently those 50x people got infected though. An exponential curve could mean they simply have not yet reached the hospitals yet.

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1 hour ago, LynnS said:

Both my parents are gone now, but I have an elderly neighbor who needs help with groceries.  So I shop for both of us now when I go out rather than expose her to risk.  I have been slowly stockpiling for both us which is different from panic buying and hoarding.  If you have to isolate for long periods of time; then you need supplies to do that.  So I pick up a few extra canned or dried goods on each trip.  But you have to do it slowly, in a measured way, over time and mindfully of other people's needs.  Neither of us have a freezer, so I have to make more trips than I'd like.   I will get a small freezer next month from my sister; so I will be able to stock some meat products for both of us and have room for more home-made soups and stuff.

I also have to stock up on drinking water since our water is loaded with calcium and salt, good for washing but not for drinking.   I give water and food items away freely to anyone who needs it in my neighborhood and who are strapped in financial resources until month's end.  Finances are a serious problem now.

Although I am isolating and practicing all the social distancing objectives, including frequent handwashing; I would like to get to a point where I don't have to shop as much right now; which is every three or four days; since store shelves are low on stock.  

There is some relief since Walmart and Independent grocers are hiring more staff and taking measures to limit purchase of some items. As well as implementing exclusive shopping hours for the elderly, disabled and high risk individuals.  They are also sanitizing shopping carts and debit machines before and after each use.  Most pharmacies in the area provided a delivery service.   Most family doctor's are only taking the most needy patients in the office while offering telephone consultations for everyone else.

What I really wish for are face masks and sanitary gloves. 

My brother is a paramedic in his sixties and working 30 hours overtime a week.  I'm afraid for him.

This is a very scary time for all us.  The likes of which we haven't seen for a hundred years.  

I’ve been getting her about a weeks worth of things at once.

I think what you’re doing to help your elderly neighbour and others in your community is really great and I hope you,them and your brother are ok and stay safe :).

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Brazil's death toll is now at 25, and seems to indicate it will increase exponentially.

Latest polls in Brazil show that only 35% approve Bolsonaro's handling of the pandemic crisis (and is much lower among college educated individuals). For comparison sake, 55 % approve the work of the health minister and 54 % the  governors handling on the situation. While polling in Brazil can be even more unreliable than in places like the US, and even less credible (particularly due to the fact that the Car Wash revealed that not only part of the bribes to the Lula and Dilma Rousseff administrations was paid in the form of paying for campaign polls, and the ones that were unfavourable were buried, among other things), but it seems to reflect the mood of the country right now.

While other countries adopted much more inefficient measures, if at all (see Boris Johnson or Lopez Obrador, for exemple), probably no world leader has shown more erratic behavior than Bolsonaro (the president of the Eurasia group also singled him out as the president who's handling the situation worse), who is clearly not only more worried about the Corona hurting his reelection prospects (and that despite the fact that before taking office, he was a long standing opponent of reelections), but he's deliberately insulting governors and mayors who are taking more effective measures or doing it quickly, or ones that may hurt his base of support (for example, when the governor of São Paulo forbade the mass in churches, he described it as absurd).

What is clearly making him lose his mind more than anything is that the governors that are gaining more attention in how they are handing the situation (and mostly positive press) are the ones from São Paulo, João Dória, and of Rio de Janeiro, Wilson Witzel, and both are center-right, with presidential ambitions, and none of them has a history of saying non-sense like supporting military dictatorships or torture or other non-sense like he does. As I said in the previous thread, the main problem with adopting Trump-like tactics is that Brazil is not a two party system, so conservatives have other options if Bolsonaro begins to crumble. 

Mind you, if we have a repeat of the previous election in 2022 (which is very possible), with Bolsonaro facing another Lula puppet in the 2nd round, he'd sin by a landslide again. The damage he's doing still pales in comparison to the one Lula/Rousseff did, and Lula is too much of an authoritarian egotist to allow the left to rally among someone who doesn't answer to him, let alone someone that rejects and denounces him.

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Posted (edited)

NYT had a quick bit about bolsonaro's death squads in sao paulo.  seems like his priorities are typical of fascism.

Edited by sologdin

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2 hours ago, Fez said:

I doubt it, but I continue to hope that that's absolutely true. If the infection rate is 50x higher than we what we know of, it means the hospitalization and fatality rates are 50x lower than they seem right now.

And I doubt it because that would mean the virus is much less dangerous than the flu. Which would be rather surprising to me, considering just how bad it can get for people who are hospitalized; including otherwise healthy, younger adults.

The under-reporting goes both ways. If there are no tests then no deaths from Covid 19 will be reported.

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In entertainment news, Harvey Weinstein, the disgraced former movie kingpin, has tested positive for COVID-19.

(if this has already been noted, sorry.)

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2 hours ago, Jen'ari said:

I’ve been getting her about a weeks worth of things at once.

I think what you’re doing to help your elderly neighbour and others in your community is really great and I hope you,them and your brother are ok and stay safe :).

Thank you and bless you for taking care of your mom so diligently.  I hope all goes well for you and dear mom also. 

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11 hours ago, Mudguard said:

We won't need a 6 month lockdown if we implement a strict, nationwide lockdown for about two months

The key here is "We" and "We" aren't.

Someone we know slightly flew into JFK last night from Mexico.  They filled out forms about contact and so on while away.  Deplaning, nobody asked to see them or collect them.  There was no testing.  They went through and into a taxi in record time flat.  Shyte, with this sort of leadership and organization Northman's "Cold Equations" rhetorical logic fallacy isn't even in play. 

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6 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The key here is "We" and "We" aren't.

Someone we know slightly flew into JFK last night from Mexico.  They filled out forms about contact and so on while away.  Deplaning, nobody asked to see them or collect them.  There was no testing.  They went through and into a taxi in record time flat.  Shyte, with this sort of leadership and organization Northman's "Cold Equations" rhetorical logic fallacy isn't even in play. 

I was thinking some more on this yesterday and actually, we need a worldwide lockdown for 2 months.  Otherwise, even if the US gets rid of coronavirus, travelers will keep on bringing it back unless we automatically test and quarantine every person coming into the US.  China is seeing this problem now, where the vast majority of new cases are being brought into the country from outside, which means that they will need to screen and potentially quarantine all travelers until coronavirus is largely eliminated from the world.  Right now, that doesn't seem likely anytime soon.  We might need a vaccine to get this under control, which won't come for another 12 months or so, at best.

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Restricting travel seems like a much better choice. While it'll hurt the airline travel a lot, it's otherwise a fairly contained part of the economy. 

That said, right now Trump is mulling @Free Northman Reborn's plan of just letting everyone get sick so that we don't hurt the economy too much, so that gives you a good idea of how great that plan is.

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6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

All that is good and well, but what if the outbreak continues after 1 month?

Honestly, if the US doesn't enact a national lockdown, really if the entire world doesn't enact a worldwide lockdown, the mitigation strategy is probably doomed to failure.  At best, we will see waves of infection until either a vaccine is developed or so many people are infected that there is herd immunity.  

With respect to a national US lockdown, I don't think we have the stomach to go past 1 to 2 months.  Trump needs to make a decision very soon, probably this week, if he wants to impose or recommend a national lockdown.  At the current rate of infection, we should pass 100,000 cases within a week.

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Mixed personal news on my end.

The good: got my hands on a pack of TP, and also toast (this is like winning the tripple crown of shopping these days)

The bad: that nullifies Ty's plan of selling me overprized TP rolls (altho I am curious, would you have offered crapazon prime with overnight shipping?)

The ugly: I think I might have caught a cold. I am sneezing a bit, and my nose has started to run somewhere, anywhere. WIthout a sore throat or persistent cough, I assume it's just that, and not covid.

Continuing with the ugly on a more relevant/general level.

I dread to think of what will happen if this goes on for a few months. While the food supply chain is not in danger of getting interrupted atm, but if fruit pickers/farm hands were to stay in their Eastern European home countries (Poland and Romania), I can see that having an impact.

The silly. You know things have not too gone well, when Cuba is sending doctors to help Italy deal with the Corona crisis.

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I’ve been wondering what sports networks are going to do with, ya know, no sports. Seems like the early answer is the rock skipping championships and a 5 hour birthday special for Peyton Manning. :ack:

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2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

The silly. You know things have not too gone well, when Cuba is sending doctors to help Italy deal with the Corona crisis.

Why? Cuba has one of the best medical education systems in the world and had made it a habit to export doctors to major health disasters across though world, which is often overlooked because those happen mostly in the developing world. I guess it's more embarrassing that we aren't willing to help them this much (because we are expecting to be hit just as hard the next few weeks and frankly, at least in Germany have cut our personnel down too much anyway to have any to spare).

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I’ve been wondering what sports networks are going to do with, ya know, no sports. Seems like the early answer is the rock skipping championships and a 5 hour birthday special for Peyton Manning. :ack:

Fucking rock skipping, seriously? How is it judged, total number of skips, distance, aesthetically? I need to know. 

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