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larrytheimp

Muh muh muh means tuh testing - Covid #6

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3 minutes ago, AndrewJ said:

Need to provide a little more context around that, mate.

Is that what the government is guaranteeing per fortnight for people that lose their work? Per month?

Doesn't everyone get paid per month? I wasnt aware of people getting paid fortnightly. The full detail was still being released and I was just getting off the train.

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Well - my main question wasn't whether it was fortnightly or monthly - it was what the numbers pertained to (ie guaranteed pay by the government. You didn't actually state that, but I inferred as much - and was just confirming my understanding).

Anyway... all good, mate.

(as to everyone being paid monthly... well, here in Asustralia, I get paid fortnightly. And that's pretty much the standard here. I wasn't aware it was different elsewhere)

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Just now, AndrewJ said:

Well - my main question wasn't whether it was fortnightly or monthly - it was what the numbers pertained to (ie guaranteed pay by the government. You didn't actually state that, but I inferred as much - and was just confirming my understanding).

Anyway... all good, mate.

(as to everyone being paid monthly... well, here in Asustralia, I get paid fortnightly. And that's pretty much the standard here. I wasn't aware it was different elsewhere)

Fortnightly? Does that mean people have 2 big blow outs a month instead of one? I know it's the same money but that sounds more fun. 

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28 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Fuck. Italy had 627 deaths in a day. That 50% up on yesterday. 

Seven hells!

Are somewhere educated estimates of how many cases they have out there?

I imagine it's probably closer to half a million than to the 40k they are reporting

 

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, AndrewJ said:

But perhaps less shitty than to a nation whose president tried to buy exclusive rights to a vaccine so that they could have access to it but it was denied to anyone else.

As an Aussie, I'm perhaps ready to shack up with China - as they could just be the lesser of two evils.

Why so eager to bend the knee to anyone on issues such as this?  I'm sure Australia puts in tax payer money into the military (which employs people btw) countries might realize that it's in their nation's best interest to put money into a manufacturing sector, and yes create some protectionist measures.  

The reason we don't do it, is that the perception that there is no will from the people to do it.  As someone above said, people love their cheap goods.  I'm as guilty as any to that.  But I also obligingly pay taxes to the federal government every year a significant percentage which goes into national defense.  Perhaps the biggest change that this will create is the idea that a country's manufacturing and health care infrastructure is part of their national defense.

Trump was either asleep at the wheel or he was actively trying to downplay the issue with the fear of the economic dowturn it would create.  Either way, there is a remedy for his incompetence.  What's the remedy for the Chinese Governement's handling of this crisis.  A crisis which apparently they helped create from their initial handling of the matter?  

Do we reward their bad behavior by slavishly increasing our dependence on them?

Edited by Frey family reunion

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As per many a source, a huge source of Italy's crisis is that the mafia has taken over every system and institution, from the Church and banks, to hospitals and prisons, to agriculture and shipping, to the police forces and ta-dah! the government.  They have ransacked, pillaged and destroyed everything except the Italian family.

We found this good entertainment in fiction, tv shows and films, but as the authors of these novel series constantly proclaimed, from the Inspector Montalbano and the Brunetti series, to Gomorrah, etc. these were warnings and information that no one acted on.

We're not much different here either: see the rethugs and crime family syndicate in chief.

 

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Just now, Zorral said:

As per many a source, a huge source of Italy's crisis is that the mafia has taken over every system and institution, from the Church and banks, to hospitals and prisons, to agriculture and shipping, to the police forces and ta-dah! the government.  They have ransacked, pillaged and destroyed everything except the Italian family.

We found this good entertainment in fiction, tv shows and films, but as the authors of these novel series constantly proclaimed, from the Inspector Montalbano and the Brunetti series, to Gomorrah, etc. these were warnings and information that no one acted on.

We're not much different here either: see the rethugs and crime family syndicate in chief.

 

It's so bizarre.  You look at South Korea and feel pretty optimistic about the outcome.  And then you look to Italy, and it makes you want to run around in circles screaming.  

And boy, what's happening in Italy is really breaking my heart, that country has been pretty special to me and my wife. 

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2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

the data i've just been reading from China showed males were slightly higher in confirmed cases (51.4 - 48.6), but massively higher in deaths (63.8 - 36.2).  

Men smoke at a 25x times higher rate than women in China. Its like 2% vs over 50%. That alone explains it.

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Seven hells!

Are somewhere educated estimates of how many cases they have out there?

I imagine it's probably closer to half a million than to the 40k they are reporting

I have heard the guess 250.000 on TV a few days ago, but take that with all the grains of salt. At the same time it is clear that the system is locally so overwhelmed that they can only test the heavy cases at this point.

4 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Men smoke at a 25x times higher rate than women in China. Its like 2% vs over 50%. That alone explains it.

And the slightly higher number of infected men coincides with China's demographics. So it plays out fairly understandably.

However when looking at the mortal cases in Germany there is a similar shift with two thirds of the dead being male last time I checked...

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1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

Doesn't everyone get paid per month? I wasnt aware of people getting paid fortnightly. The full detail was still being released and I was just getting off the train.

I don't know about fortnightly, but when I was working as a labourer we were paid weekly. 

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7 minutes ago, Toth said:

I have heard the guess 250.000 on TV a few days ago, but take that with all the grains of salt. At the same time it is clear that the system is locally so overwhelmed that they can only test the heavy cases at this point. 

Is it possible to know that? I suppose there must be some mathematical models that can estimate ranges for the "dark cases" based on the reported statistics. Some googling came with few general answers.

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14 minutes ago, Toth said:

However when looking at the mortal cases in Germany there is a similar shift with two thirds of the dead being male last time I checked...

Can't find anywhere with the German stats to that level easily. It is just the mortality rate with a similar rate of infection?

If it's a simliar infection rate but a higher mortality rate that is somewhat concerning. Could still be explained by behavioural issues amongst men - we're well documented as less likely to get medical help until it's critical.

 

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3 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Can't find anywhere with the German stats to that level easily. It is just the mortality rate with a similar rate of infection?

If it's a simliar infection rate but a higher mortality rate that is somewhat concerning. Could still be explained by behavioural issues amongst men - we're well documented as less likely to get medical help until it's critical.

Granted, the 'source' I used was Wikipedia and I did it back when there had been only 10 deaths: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19-Pandemie_in_Deutschland#Todesfälle_nach_Bundesländern

Things have changed. Of the current 42 deaths 28 are men, so things are balancing themselves out.

11 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Is it possible to know that? I suppose there must be some mathematical models that can estimate ranges for the "dark cases" based on the reported statistics. Some googling came with few general answers.

The obvious idea to make an estimation is making an estimation for the mortality rate of the virus first. Or better: Make an estimation for the number of critical cases, the ones who end up with severe pneumonia are almost certainly at around 5%. When you are at the point where the hospital system has already been overwhelmed, all of those people are fucked. If you end up assuming that the 41.000 confirmed cases are made up entirely of those severe cases while the rest stays at at home self-medicating, you could theoretically drive the number of overall cases up to 820.000. Of course it will be much lower if you substract those tested without heavy symptoms, those recovered and all kinds of cases I can't think of at the moment. But I think 250.000 to 500.000 is a reasonable assumption at this point, or else the lethality doesn't make much sense.

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43 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Men smoke at a 25x times higher rate than women in China. Its like 2% vs over 50%. That alone explains it.

This thread might disagree with you.

(I'm not making any claims, but I find it curious)

 

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5 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

This thread might disagree with you.

 

Just read the paper. That is interesting if it holds up. Very surprised at the relatively low number of smokers in the sample, given the overall smoking stats in China - makes me wonder about whether the sample is somehow atypical - if there's socioeconomic factors with who's being admitted to hospital for example, or if people in China are more likely to deny smoking in a hospital setting, or if there's something going on there. There is an uptick amongst smokers in severe cases, but the sample size is so small you can't draw any conclusions from it.

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3 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

If you really want to have a depressing thought. Just imagine what Corona will do, when it hits the African continent.

I have been similarly worried about what happens when it hits the refugee camps on the Greek islands or on the Turkish-Greek border. Thousands of people live there in extremely limited space without access to basic hygiene and any medical care, lacking even food and clean water.

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4 hours ago, Fez said:

Another interesting finding I hadn't heard before

Wonder if it's because of some pre-existing condition (like lung damage or diabetes maybe) being more common in men; or if its something else.

Well, if it's all age groups it seems to just be than durn old Y chromosome again, with its very few genes that allow anything that might be deleterious on the one X chromosome men have to be manifest. I know many people attribute the higher death rate among men among the elderly to the higher percentage of men that smoke, but in the USA I don't think there is much difference in smoking rates between younger men and women. 

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4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Just chalked it up to the simply stuff: women are smarter, cleaner, and less likely to intentionally put themselves at risk.

Those characteristics would explain a difference in more men than women becoming infected in the first place. They wouldn't explain why the death rate is higher among males than females among those who do get sick.

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9 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Those characteristics would explain a difference in more men than women becoming infected in the first place. They wouldn't explain why the death rate is higher among males than females among those who do get sick.

Perhaps. And I could be wrong because I’m going on life experiences and not data, but I think women are more likely to go in sooner when they’re sick. I always hear stories of women complaining about their husband won’t go and get (x) looked at. I would assume earlier detection would lead to a higher survival rate and vice versa.

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Perhaps. And I could be wrong because I’m going on life experiences and not data, but I think women are more likely to go in sooner when they’re sick. I always hear stories of women complaining about their husband won’t go and get (x) looked at. I would assume earlier detection would lead to a higher survival rate and vice versa.

Oh, that's absolutely true. There's health psychology research on that. And it is especially true in blue collar families. Back when I was in graduate school at the University of Michigan in the early 1980s I had a good friend who got a job with a big health psychology survey of people around Detroit, and she told me one of the most striking findings to her was that among blue collar married couples the wives had more knowledge about their husband's health status than the husbands themselves did. One of the main factors that explains why married men live longer on average than single men is that the married men have someone to insist they go to the doctor when they are sick.

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