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US Politics: Mad Max Beyond Corona Dome


Tywin Manderly

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2 trillion stimulus deal reached between the White House and Senate negotiators of both parties.  Looks like the democratic party extracted significant concessions and modifications to the republican proposal.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/senate-white-house-reach-2-trillion-stimulus-deal-to-blunt-coronavirus-fallout/ar-BB11Dj7d?ocid=ob-fb-enus-580&fbclid=IwAR1ixMN127_e0txz5k9_TiFiq7MAalYjkoszSwswT6DdkoobX0SRLix0kqI

 

The legislation, unprecedented in its size and scope, aims to flood the economy with capital by sending $1,200 checks to many Americans, creating a $367 billion loan program for small businesses, and setting up a $500 billion fund for industries, cities and states.

Other provisions include a massive boost to unemployment insurance, $150 billion for state and local stimulus funds and $130 billion for hospitals, among numerous other provisions.

...

As lawmakers neared a deal, the White House made a significant concession to Democrats’ demands, agreeing to allow enhanced scrutiny over the massive loan program that is a centerpiece of the Senate’s $2 trillion coronavirus economic package.

This pertains to the $500 billion loan and loan guarantee program that the Treasury Department would be tasked with administering for companies, states, and cities. Of that amount, $425 billion is supposed to go to businesses, cities and states. An additional $50 billion would go to passenger airlines, as well as $8 billion for cargo airlines, and $17 billion for firms that are deemed important to national security.

 

Trump has already said he wants some of the money to go to the cruise ship industry, and he also wants assistance for hotels. When he was asked Monday evening who would perform oversight of the program, Trump responded, “I’ll be the oversight.”

But during closed-door negotiations on Capitol Hill, White House officials agreed to allow an independent inspector general and an oversight board to scrutinize the lending decisions, senators said

 

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1 minute ago, BigFatCoward said:

Gallup poll has approval rating up 5 points, Jesus wept, what a messed up country. 

"Rally to the flag". The psychology of it makes sense -- they literally can't change boat in the middle of the storm, so they are praying the boat is sturdier than anyone believes.

 Lets see where it stands in three weeks.

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1 hour ago, Ran said:

"Rally to the flag". The psychology of it makes sense -- they literally can't change boat in the middle of the storm, so they are praying the boat is sturdier than anyone believes.

 Lets see where it stands in three weeks.

I'm making a prediction right now it'll otherwise remain stable or tick up.

People love hatred, and love the familiar. Now they have a ”better” reason to.

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4 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

2 trillion stimulus deal reached between the White House and Senate negotiators of both parties.  Looks like the democratic party extracted significant concessions and modifications to the republican proposal.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/senate-white-house-reach-2-trillion-stimulus-deal-to-blunt-coronavirus-fallout/ar-BB11Dj7d?ocid=ob-fb-enus-580&fbclid=IwAR1ixMN127_e0txz5k9_TiFiq7MAalYjkoszSwswT6DdkoobX0SRLix0kqI

 

 

Jesus, for significant concessions I was expecting more than that.  I hope this "oversight" has some fucking teeth.  Still looks like a massive corporate giveaway, with scraps for us.

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CNBC is reporting this morning that there is a clause in the agreement that must have been one of the biggest sticking points for some senators.

No money for companies owned or controlled by members of Congress or the administration!

Will Trump refuse to sign the bill?

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14 hours ago, DMC said:

In terms of economic indicators, GDP growth is a much better explanatory variable than unemployment - or even change in unemployment - in models trying to predict the two-party vote share in presidential elections.  In fact, the best models usually use change in GDP growth during the first two quarters of the election year (meaning January-June, NOT October-March which would be the first two quarters of the FY).  If that holds for this cycle, Trump is already screwed.  But, this is a pretty extraordinary case, so I wouldn't put too much stock in that as of yet. 

I also agree that Trump in all likelihood is still simply enjoying the rally round the flag effect right now, dissatisfaction during crises usually has a lagged effect.

Yes, I remember you talking about this in a previous thread; and I was meaning to ask about the rate of change in employment. Its hard for me to parse how a voter's decision is correlated to a rate of change (although I could make the same case for rate of change of GDP).  The root cause must be some form of 'economic anxiety' metric that is hard to quantify with a single number, so you have to make these kludges to approximate it. Still, I question how much a voter is knowledgeable about rate of change of unemployment rather than the more widely reported unemployment figure (the rate of change of GDP is widely reported).

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3 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

Jesus, for significant concessions I was expecting more than that.  I hope this "oversight" has some fucking teeth.  Still looks like a massive corporate giveaway, with scraps for us.

I'm not sure how much more concessions you could attain (at least in a remotely timely manner) with a GOP president and majority Senate.  While I haven't read the actual language, from reports the oversight includes an IG and a congressional panel - hard to ask for much more on its face.  As for corporate giveaway, it's $500 billion to corporations, or 25% of the bill.  That's a hell of a lot better than no oversight and corporate loans accounting for ~40% of the bill, which is where it was a few days ago.  Not to mention all the other concessions attained - beefed up unemployment coverage, an extra $150 for state and local governments, an extra $130 billion for hospitals, no floor on the direct payments (I think).  Pelosi putting out her own bill definitely seems to have worked as leverage.

51 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Still, I question how much a voter is knowledgeable about rate of change of unemployment rather than the more widely reported unemployment figure (the rate of change of GDP is widely reported).

Oh, just because a metric works doesn't mean the voter is knowledgable about it.  I remember back (in the long long ago) when I started grad school reading the lit on "pocketbook" vs. "sociotropic" economic voting.  Pocketbook refers to how the voters themselves have done financially - obviously something they're aware of, while "sociotropic" refers to macroeconomic indicators, or how the economy is doing in general.  Figured it had to be pocketbook that was a more significant/stronger factor on vote choice.  In most cases, nope, it's sociotropic.

That doesn't mean it's an a --> b relationship where "a" is change in GDP growth (or any other metric).  It's more of an a --> "captures the public's sense of the state of economy --> b.  Why does change in GDP growth work the best as "a" there - better than unemployment, change in unemployment, or even, say, consumer confidence?  No one can say for sure, but it suggests that voters do have a collective wisdom about the trajectory of the economy.  Just so happens GDP growth works best as the variable to reflect that when you plug different sociotropic metrics into models :dunno:

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https://katz.substack.com/p/the-coronavirus-disaster-hasnt-happened?

Quote

 

If those trends hold—and there is little reason to think they won’t—the U.S. chapter of the COVID-19 epidemic will be worse than any other in the world. Sheri Fink reported nearly two weeks ago that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that, without assertive measures, 160 million to 214 million people in the United States could be infected. A team of epidemiologists at Imperial College London has estimated that as many as 2.2 million Americans could die.

To that number in perspective, that toll would be double the military casualties of every U.S. war in history, and the 1918 influenza epidemic combined.

No one knows what that will be like. Few in this country have seen anything like it before. I survived the deadliest earthquake ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, in which an estimated 100,000 to 316,000 people died—almost one in ten people in and around Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince. It scarred all of us for life. Yet that event was constrained to one small part of one small country. These COVID-19 estimates describe an unimaginable catastrophe across one of the biggest countries in the world in the next few weeks.

Anyone who tells you we will simply shrug off even a fraction as many deaths as a “sacrifice,” as Texas lieutenant governor Dan Patrick and Glenn Beck have said, has no idea what they’re talking about, is a sociopath, or both. Anyone who thinks that coercing millions of people to hasten their own and their loved ones’ deaths will do anything but further destroy the economy is either stupid or has a plan to get rich on the side.

 

 

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