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Tywin Manderly

US Politics: Mad Max Beyond Corona Dome

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

More or less sick than the God of the Old Testament? 

More.  At least that guy had a code, as fucked as it was.

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6 minutes ago, DMC said:

More.  At least that guy had a code, as fucked as it was.

Guy? You sexist pig!

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2 trillion stimulus deal reached between the White House and Senate negotiators of both parties.  Looks like the democratic party extracted significant concessions and modifications to the republican proposal.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/senate-white-house-reach-2-trillion-stimulus-deal-to-blunt-coronavirus-fallout/ar-BB11Dj7d?ocid=ob-fb-enus-580&fbclid=IwAR1ixMN127_e0txz5k9_TiFiq7MAalYjkoszSwswT6DdkoobX0SRLix0kqI

 

The legislation, unprecedented in its size and scope, aims to flood the economy with capital by sending $1,200 checks to many Americans, creating a $367 billion loan program for small businesses, and setting up a $500 billion fund for industries, cities and states.

Other provisions include a massive boost to unemployment insurance, $150 billion for state and local stimulus funds and $130 billion for hospitals, among numerous other provisions.

...

As lawmakers neared a deal, the White House made a significant concession to Democrats’ demands, agreeing to allow enhanced scrutiny over the massive loan program that is a centerpiece of the Senate’s $2 trillion coronavirus economic package.

This pertains to the $500 billion loan and loan guarantee program that the Treasury Department would be tasked with administering for companies, states, and cities. Of that amount, $425 billion is supposed to go to businesses, cities and states. An additional $50 billion would go to passenger airlines, as well as $8 billion for cargo airlines, and $17 billion for firms that are deemed important to national security.

 

Trump has already said he wants some of the money to go to the cruise ship industry, and he also wants assistance for hotels. When he was asked Monday evening who would perform oversight of the program, Trump responded, “I’ll be the oversight.”

But during closed-door negotiations on Capitol Hill, White House officials agreed to allow an independent inspector general and an oversight board to scrutinize the lending decisions, senators said

 

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1 minute ago, BigFatCoward said:

Gallup poll has approval rating up 5 points, Jesus wept, what a messed up country. 

"Rally to the flag". The psychology of it makes sense -- they literally can't change boat in the middle of the storm, so they are praying the boat is sturdier than anyone believes.

 Lets see where it stands in three weeks.

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I've only got the news on in the background but did I just hear Trump say 'as we near the end of this terrible illness' or similar?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ran said:

"Rally to the flag". The psychology of it makes sense -- they literally can't change boat in the middle of the storm, so they are praying the boat is sturdier than anyone believes.

 Lets see where it stands in three weeks.

I'm making a prediction right now it'll otherwise remain stable or tick up.

People love hatred, and love the familiar. Now they have a ”better” reason to.

Edited by Varysblackfyre321

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4 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

2 trillion stimulus deal reached between the White House and Senate negotiators of both parties.  Looks like the democratic party extracted significant concessions and modifications to the republican proposal.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/senate-white-house-reach-2-trillion-stimulus-deal-to-blunt-coronavirus-fallout/ar-BB11Dj7d?ocid=ob-fb-enus-580&fbclid=IwAR1ixMN127_e0txz5k9_TiFiq7MAalYjkoszSwswT6DdkoobX0SRLix0kqI

 

 

Jesus, for significant concessions I was expecting more than that.  I hope this "oversight" has some fucking teeth.  Still looks like a massive corporate giveaway, with scraps for us.

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CNBC is reporting this morning that there is a clause in the agreement that must have been one of the biggest sticking points for some senators.

No money for companies owned or controlled by members of Congress or the administration!

Will Trump refuse to sign the bill?

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West Virginia has finally decided to play catch-up and probably wins the overnight prize, almost doubling it case number, from 20 to 39! Woot!

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How can the Orange Overlord have such a high approval rating for the mangled mess he's made of this situation?

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4 minutes ago, Darryk said:

How can the Orange Overlord have such a high approval rating for the mangled mess he's made of this situation?

The promise of free money to come?

Seems like it could sway a lot of people. 

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4 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Gallup poll has approval rating up 5 points, Jesus wept, what a messed up country. 

Gawd fobid we make progress against an epidemic!

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1 hour ago, A True Kaniggit said:

The promise of free money to come?

Seems like it could sway a lot of people. 

To reiterate my thesis of the average American:

1. Lazy

2. Greedy

3. Dumb

 

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3 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Gawd fobid we make progress against an epidemic!

When and where has that happened?

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9 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Gawd fobid we make progress against an epidemic!

I wouldn’t hold your breath....

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36 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Gawd fobid we make progress against an epidemic!

Others have already piled on, but I would like to know what progress looks like here.

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14 hours ago, DMC said:

In terms of economic indicators, GDP growth is a much better explanatory variable than unemployment - or even change in unemployment - in models trying to predict the two-party vote share in presidential elections.  In fact, the best models usually use change in GDP growth during the first two quarters of the election year (meaning January-June, NOT October-March which would be the first two quarters of the FY).  If that holds for this cycle, Trump is already screwed.  But, this is a pretty extraordinary case, so I wouldn't put too much stock in that as of yet. 

I also agree that Trump in all likelihood is still simply enjoying the rally round the flag effect right now, dissatisfaction during crises usually has a lagged effect.

Yes, I remember you talking about this in a previous thread; and I was meaning to ask about the rate of change in employment. Its hard for me to parse how a voter's decision is correlated to a rate of change (although I could make the same case for rate of change of GDP).  The root cause must be some form of 'economic anxiety' metric that is hard to quantify with a single number, so you have to make these kludges to approximate it. Still, I question how much a voter is knowledgeable about rate of change of unemployment rather than the more widely reported unemployment figure (the rate of change of GDP is widely reported).

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Posted (edited)

Franklin Graham has some commercials running on CNN right now trying to get some new members of his flock for people who are afraid in this time of Coronvirus.  A different twist on never let a crisis go to waste.  

 

ETA:  Link to COVID-related pieces from The Atlantic that appear to be free for the time being.  

Edited by Triskele

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3 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

Jesus, for significant concessions I was expecting more than that.  I hope this "oversight" has some fucking teeth.  Still looks like a massive corporate giveaway, with scraps for us.

I'm not sure how much more concessions you could attain (at least in a remotely timely manner) with a GOP president and majority Senate.  While I haven't read the actual language, from reports the oversight includes an IG and a congressional panel - hard to ask for much more on its face.  As for corporate giveaway, it's $500 billion to corporations, or 25% of the bill.  That's a hell of a lot better than no oversight and corporate loans accounting for ~40% of the bill, which is where it was a few days ago.  Not to mention all the other concessions attained - beefed up unemployment coverage, an extra $150 for state and local governments, an extra $130 billion for hospitals, no floor on the direct payments (I think).  Pelosi putting out her own bill definitely seems to have worked as leverage.

51 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Still, I question how much a voter is knowledgeable about rate of change of unemployment rather than the more widely reported unemployment figure (the rate of change of GDP is widely reported).

Oh, just because a metric works doesn't mean the voter is knowledgable about it.  I remember back (in the long long ago) when I started grad school reading the lit on "pocketbook" vs. "sociotropic" economic voting.  Pocketbook refers to how the voters themselves have done financially - obviously something they're aware of, while "sociotropic" refers to macroeconomic indicators, or how the economy is doing in general.  Figured it had to be pocketbook that was a more significant/stronger factor on vote choice.  In most cases, nope, it's sociotropic.

That doesn't mean it's an a --> b relationship where "a" is change in GDP growth (or any other metric).  It's more of an a --> "captures the public's sense of the state of economy --> b.  Why does change in GDP growth work the best as "a" there - better than unemployment, change in unemployment, or even, say, consumer confidence?  No one can say for sure, but it suggests that voters do have a collective wisdom about the trajectory of the economy.  Just so happens GDP growth works best as the variable to reflect that when you plug different sociotropic metrics into models :dunno:

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