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Tywin Manderly

US Politics: Mad Max Beyond Corona Dome

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And the final bill passes the Senate 96-0. Best guess is that its $2 trillion and that most of the funds will be used in only 3-4 months (there's a few other things thrown in there that'll last longer, like $425 million more for substance use prevention, treatment, and recovery through September 2021). Honestly one of the more remarkable legislative feats in modern US history.

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6 minutes ago, DMC said:

That is indeed the way the US is structured.  Did you expect the stimulus bill to fix that?  Honestly, give me a proposal that could fix that in terms of the direct payments.  Like, did you expect this bill to heal the world or something?  I just..this seems like an underlying attack on the agencies that work their asses off to ensure benefits are distributed as quickly as possible.

No, it's really not meant to be that at all; at least not in how I see it. It's a good thing that people will be helped out far more than they were during the GFC, but it's just hard to feel thrilled about it when thinking about the people I know who are going to get hit hardest by this won't get a damn thing. Did they at least manage to get SNAP benefits saved, or even increased?

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13 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

it's just hard to feel thrilled

I don't think anyone feels thrilled right now.  That's different from admonishing the Dems from getting as much as they could get from an inherently disadvantageous position.

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47 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't think anyone feels thrilled right now.  That's different from admonishing the Dems from getting as much as they could get from an inherently disadvantageous position.

Fair enough.

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Billionaires Want People Back At Work, Even If It Kills Them
Hurting the economy “could be worse than losing a few more people,” Paychex founder Tom Golisano told Bloomberg.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/billionaires-workers-coronavirus_n_5e7b92f0c5b62a1870d68b11

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A number of the country’s richest businesspeople spoke frankly about the matter for a Bloomberg story published Wednesday. Dick Kovacevich, who ran Wells Fargo until 2007, said he wants healthy people under age 55 to return to work in late April if the outbreak is contained enough.

“We’ll gradually bring those people back and see what happens. Some of them will get sick, some may even die, I don’t know,” he said. “Do you want to suffer more economically or take some risk that you’ll get flu-like symptoms and a flu-like experience? Do you want to take an economic risk or a health risk? You get to choose.”

 

 

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Looks like 538 came out with their own...something,regarding Trump reelection prospects. They have their own Economic Index (first designed in 2012); like all 538 models its a fair bit complicated and I got tired going down the rabbit hole. Anyway, they have their predictions up, and a mild recession could have Trump trailing the popular vote anywhere from 4 to 6 points with an error bar that is quite large (>5 points).

Note that Trump has a built in EC advantage, so 4 points with a large error bar can still have him win the EC. The caveat here also being that partisanship can dull the response to a recession, so some of this may be baked in to the approval ratings come November.

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Query about this stimulus package: an individual making 75k or less gets $1200 + $500 for each kid up to three...so does that mean married couples with two children are assessed separately?

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1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Looks like 538 came out with their own...something,regarding Trump reelection prospects.

If you're referring to this, that's just Silver being a little boy playing with numbers.  Literally his "models" - summarized with the table headlined "Even a mild recession could make Trump an underdog" - smacks of an undergrad overusing excel.  His understanding of econometrics is plainly at a level where he still needs to take the basic regression seminar of first year grad students.  If I started talking to him about actual advanced models, like MLE or multilevel - in which those 18 data points are multiplied by 51 - he'd have to run to Azari or Masket to ask what the hell I was talking about.  I do agree with his concluding point/section though.  Nobody can create a reliable model to predict how a global pandemic impacts a presidential election.  We're all working without a net.

2 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Query about this stimulus package: an individual making 75k or less gets $1200 + $500 for each kid up to three...so does that mean married couples with two children are assessed separately?

Married couples that file jointly would receive $2400, and then $500 for each child under 17.

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Fucking hell. Unemployment claims last week were at 3.28 million. Even the more pessimistic projections I saw were that'd be closer to 2 million.

Apparently the previous all-time record was in 1982 (who knew?) at 695,000.

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3 minutes ago, Fez said:

Apparently the previous all-time record was in 1982 (who knew?) at 695,000.

Heh, yeah I was reading an article yesterday that mentioned that and was like WTF?  I mean, Reagan's GOP didn't even take that much of a hit - down 26 in the House but virtually even in the Senate.  Important to note those Labor stats only go back to 1967.

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35 minutes ago, Fez said:

Fucking hell. Unemployment claims last week were at 3.28 million. Even the more pessimistic projections I saw were that'd be closer to 2 million.

Apparently the previous all-time record was in 1982 (who knew?) at 695,000.

Previous one week loss was something like 1.3%. I think the 2,000,000 number was meant to represent 2%, which would have been a record. So it's even bigger than that, and this is just the beginning because all that government money is going to take a while to start flowing. 

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30 minutes ago, DMC said:

Heh, yeah I was reading an article yesterday that mentioned that and was like WTF?  I mean, Reagan's GOP didn't even take that much of a hit - down 26 in the House but virtually even in the Senate.  Important to note those Labor stats only go back to 1967.

I'm sure you know this, but people often overlook that a lot of Reagan's presidency was peaks and valleys, be it economics or social policy. He could really be all over the place, which makes his Republican super hero imagine come across as even more bizarre. But who cares, the party of Reagan is gone.

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7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

people often overlook that a lot of Reagan's presidency was peaks and valleys, be it economics or social policy.

Yeah I'm just surprised the record wasn't sometime in the 70s recession/stagflation or the GFC or even the 91-92 recession.  Particularly the latter two considering it's just a hard number and the rise in population.

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52 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'm sure you know this, but people often overlook that a lot of Reagan's presidency was peaks and valleys, be it economics or social policy. He could really be all over the place, which makes his Republican super hero imagine come across as even more bizarre. But who cares, the party of Reagan is gone.

Nah, this is the Party of Reagan written out to its logical conclusion. Business uber alles, with fake religiosity, made-for-TV tough guy shtick, and racism holding the coalition together.

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Posted (edited)

@mcbigski, I'm wondering when you'll let us know when and where the COVID crisis is improving in the US. Please, enlighten us.

Edited by Week

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16 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Nah, this is the Party of Reagan written out to its logical conclusion. Business uber alles, with fake religiosity, made-for-TV tough guy shtick, and racism holding the coalition together.

Fair enough.

And you could parallel his handling of the HIV/AIDS crisis with Trump’s handling of COVID-19.

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Well, the relief bill in Congress is good news, assuming the Speaker doesn't through another wrench before it gets passed.

Now that the bureaucrats have stopped getting in the way of private testing, the testing capability in the US has exploded.  Apparently the UK has developed a finger prick test for antibodies and the ability to test 3 million people or so.  Once we can start testing large random samples of the population at large we'll have a lot more clarity about how infectious, how many remain totally asymptomatic, and what the true CFR is. 

I suspect that this has been spreading more broadly and more mildly (ie flatter curved naturally) than the worst case scenario projections from short term extrapolation of a small segment of a growth curve that is being plotted using incomplete data.  More testing will mean better responses in both the better and worse cases so that's all good.

Plus, I saw that there are no cases as of yet in New Mexico and George said last week he's spending more time in Westeros.  Maybe this whole thing is God's way of telling him to finish the next book.

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5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Fair enough.

And you could parallel his handling of the HIV/AIDS crisis with Trump’s handling of COVID-19.

My LGBTQ friends have not been quiet about the parallels. It's almost like lack of empathy is a self-selecting trait for right wing politics.

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Its rather scary how a regional grocery store chain in Texas apparently did significantly more prep work for COVID-19 than the entire Federal government. https://www.texasmonthly.com/food/heb-prepared-coronavirus-pandemic/

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Justen Noakes, director of emergency preparedness, H-E-B: Just a little bit of history: we have been working on our pandemic and influenza plan for quite a while now, since 2005, when we had the threat of H5N1 overseas in China. That’s when we first developed what our plan looked like, [as well as] some of our requirements and business implications. I

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Justen Noakes: We activated our Emergency Operations Center in San Antonio on March 4 [the EOC is run out of H-E-B’s new 1.6 million-square-foot super-regional warehouse]. The driving factor behind that is when we see even a potential upswing in customer activity due to one of these events. The Emergency Operations Center at H-E-B is a collection of the most impacted areas of the company, and the leaders in those areas are brought together to make streamlined decisions and collaborate together on a daily basis. That’s almost every area of the company, so we’ve got a lot going on in our emergency operations center right now. It’s very busy.

Lotta interesting details in there. No idea if H-E-B is an outlier or if all the big grocery chains have this level of prep going on.

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