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Tywin Manderly

US Politics: Mad Max Beyond Corona Dome

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6 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

That's interesting. Do you know off the top of your head how much of a better model fit you get when you add in unemployment? Or does it really add anything once GDP is present?

I've never seen incorporating unemployment increase an r-squared score (or any other goodness of fit measure) for a model by any substantial margin - and sometimes I've seen it even decrease.  I have seen change in unemployment be a useful addition both in its own statistical significance and substantively increasing the r-squared, but that's usually in models that employ more (and more complicated) macroeconomic indicators than just simply change in GDP.

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3 minutes ago, DMC said:

I've never seen incorporating unemployment increase an r-squared score (or any other goodness of fit measure) for a model by any substantial margin - and sometimes I've seen it even decrease.  I have seen change in unemployment be a useful addition both in its own statistical significance and substantively increasing the r-squared, but that's usually in models that employ more (and more complicated) macroeconomic indicators than just simply change in GDP.

Thanks. Interesting.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

I also agree that Trump in all likelihood is still simply enjoying the rally round the flag effect right now, dissatisfaction during crises usually has a lagged effect.

I largely agree with the snipped, but want to add a bit to this. I don't think you're wrong, but I also think a huge factor at play is that it's blue states that are being crushed. The four states I keep hear being cited as getting out of control are NY, CA, WA and IL. I think attitudes will change when this hits red states, states I might add that have done jack shit for the most part. I can't link the graphic, but I saw on Hayes show a comparison between KY and TN, and acting a week quicker has KY with a fifth of the number of cases as TN. Obviously there are some other factors at play, mainly less urban residents in the former than the latter, but I think this has a chance to boomerang on Republicans and that's why they're spending link drunken sailors spilling over the bar.
 

10 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Trump is so delusional that I'm starting to have delusions that Republicans would make moves to remove him again.  

Not a chance. The party writ large clearly only cares about holding on to power, and cutting bait now could lead to a 1972 or 1984 result for Republicans. They're all in, whether they like it or not, making Donald Trump the Jameis Winston of Presidents. 

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Jokes aside, how does your hospital look? 

Most of the non-medical staff are home, which is most of the hospital. So I'm doing administrative work for 3 different departments. Other than that it's just hectic stupidity as idiots try to convince everyone around them that they're 3 seconds from death.

 

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1 hour ago, Zorral said:

You're missing the constant drumbeat to be back to normal at Easter -- his nonstop message is to pack the churches at Easter.

Jim Jones.

Why is this insane monster not being taken out RIGHT NOW? Why is fnoose not unplugged RIGHT NOW?   Without this constant drumbeat the asshole base would deflate.

Jim Jones at least offered his followers a drink...

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Most of the non-medical staff are home, which is most of the hospital. So I'm doing administrative work for 3 different departments. Other than that it's just hectic stupidity as idiots try to convince everyone around them that they're 3 seconds from death.

 

Sounds about right. I should have been sent home last week. And instead I'm kept in close quarters with idiots who are not taking this seriously. 

Despite still having work, it's clear I made a grave mistaking in wasting so much time here. I had hoped to transfer to the psych department, because they offer very generous education benefits if you want to work there and go to grad school at the same time on the condition you agree to stay afterwards for a few years, but they haven't posted a single job in over a year now that didn't already require a grad degree. And now they certainly won't.

Should of taken that job in Vice City after all, even if the highlights of my day would have been editing "Florida Man" stories. Sigh. 

Edited by Tywin et al.

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21 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I also think a huge factor at play is that it's blue states that are being crushed. The four states I keep hear being cited as getting out of control are NY, CA, WA and IL. I think attitudes will change when this hits red states, states I might add that have done jack shit for the most part. I can't link the graphic, but I saw on Hayes show a comparison between KY and TN, and acting a week quicker has KY with a fifth of the number of cases as TN.

This may be the case, but I'm skeptical at this point - or at least not quite as cynical.  It's not like red states (or voters) didn't care about 9/11 because it hit NYC and DC.  Now you could say that's because they had the Arab/Muslim world to blame.  Well, sure, that's why the right is racializing the virus as well.  On the KY/TN comparison, it should be noted the former has a Democratic governor and the latter does not.

4 minutes ago, The Worm's Hole said:

So I'm hearing this shit about Biden wanting somebody with a lot of "political experience" to be his VP. They wouldn't really go there would they? I mean not with Trump in office. Like I know the DNC is stupid, but they're not stupid enough to try that, are they?

Uh, doesn't the Trump administration's gross incompetence highlight the desirability of political experience?

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7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Uh, doesn't the Trump administration's gross incompetence highlight the desirability of political experience?

That and maybe Biden's looking to assuage people's fears associated with his age?

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

This may be the case, but I'm skeptical at this point - or at least not quite as cynical.  It's not like red states (or voters) didn't care about 9/11 because it hit NYC and DC.  Now you could say that's because they had the Arab/Muslim world to blame.  Well, sure, that's why the right is racializing the virus as well.  On the KY/TN comparison, it should be noted the former has a Democratic governor and the latter does not.

I guess I'm just that cynical at this point. 

9/11 creates an interesting comparison point, but I wonder if there are just too many complicating factors to make it worth using. It was a clear attack on our country, with an enemy that was easy to articulate. Diseases just don't work that way, despite Trump's desires to xenophobically rebrand COVID-19 as China or Chinese virus. 

And yes, I should have included that, because KY is not a blue state at all and only has a Democrat in office because the incumbent Republican was so unlikable. But the two states are interesting comparison points, and of course the liberal is doing better. Us Minnesotans have been lording such over the despicable Wisconsinites for years now (though they have become sane and have a Democrat as governor now too. Maybe there's hope for them after all*).

*There is not. COVID-19 won't even let Freaky Greeky get a chip.

Quote

Uh, doesn't the Trump administration's gross incompetence highlight the desirability of political experience?

He's not going to pick Hillary. But Cuomo sure has shit jumped to the head of the line of white men that could be accepted as the VP. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, The Worm's Hole said:

A few weeks ago I was scoffing at the idea of Yang as his VP, but with so many people on lockdown over the virus, UBI isn't completely off the table as an issue, so who knows.

I can tell you right now, he won't pick Yang. I will bet $50,000 against you only having to put down $500 and will happily spend your money on an once of weed, a nice bottle of scotch and a ticket on a cruise shit, value descending in that order.

ETA: I immediately realized I wrote shit instead of ship, but at this point, what's the fucking difference? 

Edited by Tywin et al.

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The Texas Democrats need to run ads replaying that Lt. Governor saying old people should just sacrifice themselves for business over and over and over.  Still no word on Beto or Castro running for Senate?   

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12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

He's not going to pick Hillary. But Cuomo sure has shit jumped to the head of the line of white men that could be accepted as the VP. 

There are plenty of women candidates with sufficient political experience, he's still going to pick a woman.  And no, not Hillary.  Pretty sure his statement there is emphasizing the importance of competent leadership and a return to normalcy - which has been his message all along and sounds like a pretty damn good thing to double down on with the crisis.

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8 minutes ago, The Worm's Hole said:

I could see him picking Hillary before picking Yang.

.00001 > .000000000000000000000001

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5 minutes ago, DMC said:

There are plenty of women candidates with sufficient political experience, he's still going to pick a woman.  And no, not Hillary.  Pretty sure his statement there is emphasizing the importance of competent leadership and a return to normalcy - which has been his message all along and sounds like a pretty damn good thing to double down on with the crisis.

I tend to agree, and that could mean Abrams is less likely, but it's hard to deny how good Cuomo has been as of late. If the VP is a man, he has to be the leading contender, no? 

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22 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

If the VP is a man, he has to be the leading contender, no? 

Even if it was a man, I'd still think he'd want to choose someone that isn't loathed by the left.  At least that'd be the wise thing to do.

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3 hours ago, DMC said:

I also agree that Trump in all likelihood is still simply enjoying the rally round the flag effect right now, dissatisfaction during crises usually has a lagged effect.

And you asked me how he could turn a viral pandemic it into a rally around the flag issue. Even with it happening I sure as fuck don't understand how it happened. 

Now I just have to hope that after rallying around the flag for 8 months, his supporters will be really sick of standing next to a guy that's been humping their flag for 8 months.

I continue to think that the only mark against Warren as VP candidate is age, effective and organised administrators is definitely the sort of skills I think are desirable right now.

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21 minutes ago, DMC said:

Even if it was a man, I'd still think he'd want to choose someone that isn't loathed by the left.  At least that'd be the wise thing to do.

Recent events necessitate reconfiguration. 

Or are we in a simulation?

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1 minute ago, karaddin said:

And you asked me how he could turn a viral pandemic it into a rally around the flag issue. Even with it happening I sure as fuck don't understand how it happened. 

Well, IIRC when you asked that question I did not anticipate basically the entire global economy shutting down for who knows how long.  If I knew the crisis was going to become this serious then, yeah, there's definitely going to be a rally effect at the beginning.  Although you're right, I should have anticipated Trump racializing the virus.  Still remains to be seen how much that's gonna work for anyone that isn't gonna vote for him anyway.

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Or are we in a simulation?

If we are, the person/entity running it is pretty damn sick in the head. 

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Just now, DMC said:

Well, IIRC when you asked that question I did not anticipate basically the entire global economy shutting down for who knows how long.  If I knew the crisis was going to become this serious then, yeah, there's definitely going to be a rally effect at the beginning.  Although you're right, I should have anticipated Trump racializing the virus.  Still remains to be seen how much that's gonna work for anyone that isn't gonna vote for him anyway.

Yeah it was quite a while ago and I guess that's the difference - I was expecting major financial damage from the Chinese lock down disrupting supply chains even if the outbreak wasn't this severe.

I really hope there is a short time limit on the rally when he's fucking up the response so badly

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2 minutes ago, DMC said:

If we are, the person/entity running it is pretty damn sick in the head. 

More or less sick than the God of the Old Testament? 

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