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About The Purple Wedding...


Dreadscythe95

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On 3/23/2020 at 5:51 PM, Dreadscythe95 said:

We don't know actually if Bronn is a true friend of Tyrion in the series anyway.

On the contrary, we do know that he isn't a 'true friend' to anyone.

Bronn is the single most transparent character in the whole story, and that includes the dogs and the horses. He is a mercenary, pure and simple: utterly ruthless in his self-interest. He has no hidden depths. He doesn't even have hidden shallows!

 

22 hours ago, Nevets said:

Bronn works for Bronn and nobody else.  The level of coordination required is ridiculous.  His presence at the inn is coincidence, as is the meeting between Tyrion and Catelyn.  Trying to coordinate all that with the communication available would be impossible.

Absolutely.

However:

22 hours ago, Nevets said:

The Tyrells had no reason to want Tyrion dead.  Given that Sansa is a logical suspect and is carrying the murder weapon, they probably expected her arrest with Tyrion.  If Littlefinger promised to get Sansa out, they are fools.

I think part of the overall plot was to FRAME Tyrion to get him out of the way, to make Sansa a widow who could remarry. I believe the plan to get Sansa out served both LF and the Tyrells. LF probably lied to Olenna and said she would be sent to Highgarden, but I believe he intended to keep Sansa all along. Joff was murdered to clear the way for Marge to marry Tommen instead. It was clear Olenna didn't want her granddaughter tied to Joff; she knew what he was. Tommen was as good as Joff for the Lannister alliance, and he would also be a lot more biddable.

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2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

How is Varys ordering Bronn and Chiggen to suddenly start following Tyrion instead of Catelyn when he is all the way back in King's Landing?

After the Crossroads Inn it was easier to go after both of them, because from then on Cat and Tyrion went together. So by offering to Cat to escort her wherever she is going, was their way in into her entorage. Then, when they arrived to the Eyrie (Chiggen by that time was already dead), Bronn had enough time to send a raven-mail to Varys to KL, and to get back his reply.

 

It is known from ASOIAF-books, that ravens are bigger, faster and have higher endurance than pigeons (that's what maester Aemon (or was it Luwin?) said), that's why raven-mail is preferable method of communication in that world.

Speed of pigeons:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homing_pigeon

"Their average flying speed over moderate 640 km (400 miles) distances is around 80 km/h (50 miles per hour)."

There are many birds, that are much faster than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_birds_by_flight_speed

Most likely ravens are trained to delived their messages as fast as they can. Thus they don't stop until they will get to their destination. Birds can fly for many days without stopping or landing. They can even sleep or feed while they are flying.

Let's take as an average speed for ravens 50 mph, same as speed of pigeons. Though there are birds that can fly even faster than 100 miles per hour.

Direct line between KL and The Eyrie is 600 miles.

KL -> Eyrie - 600 miles/50 = 12 hours.

Thus it is possible to send a message from the Eyrie to KL, and to receive a reply to it in 24 hours. And Tyrion was held in a cell at the Eyrie for several days. So Bronn had enough time to get from Varys instructions what he should do next.

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4 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

Joff was murdered to clear the way for Marge to marry Tommen instead. It was clear Olenna didn't want her granddaughter tied to Joff; she knew what he was. Tommen was as good as Joff for the Lannister alliance, and he would also be a lot more biddable.

So whyd Loras join the KG?

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6 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

I think part of the overall plot was to FRAME Tyrion to get him out of the way, to make Sansa a widow who could remarry. I believe the plan to get Sansa out served both LF and the Tyrells. LF probably lied to Olenna and said she would be sent to Highgarden, but I believe he intended to keep Sansa all along. Joff was murdered to clear the way for Marge to marry Tommen instead. It was clear Olenna didn't want her granddaughter tied to Joff; she knew what he was. Tommen was as good as Joff for the Lannister alliance, and he would also be a lot more biddable.

This may seem logic at first though but it's actually not. Why would Littlefinger make openly enemies The Tyrells? The Tyrells control Highgarden and The Reach, and now they also control the Throne, they are not enemies you want to make. They could even send assasins for him.

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20 hours ago, Megorova said:

After the Crossroads Inn it was easier to go after both of them, because from then on Cat and Tyrion went together. So by offering to Cat to escort her wherever she is going, was their way in into her entorage. Then, when they arrived to the Eyrie (Chiggen by that time was already dead), Bronn had enough time to send a raven-mail to Varys to KL, and to get back his reply.

 

It is known from ASOIAF-books, that ravens are bigger, faster and have higher endurance than pigeons (that's what maester Aemon (or was it Luwin?) said), that's why raven-mail is preferable method of communication in that world.

Speed of pigeons:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homing_pigeon

"Their average flying speed over moderate 640 km (400 miles) distances is around 80 km/h (50 miles per hour)."

There are many birds, that are much faster than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_birds_by_flight_speed

Most likely ravens are trained to delived their messages as fast as they can. Thus they don't stop until they will get to their destination. Birds can fly for many days without stopping or landing. They can even sleep or feed while they are flying.

Let's take as an average speed for ravens 50 mph, same as speed of pigeons. Though there are birds that can fly even faster than 100 miles per hour.

Direct line between KL and The Eyrie is 600 miles.

KL -> Eyrie - 600 miles/50 = 12 hours.

Thus it is possible to send a message from the Eyrie to KL, and to receive a reply to it in 24 hours. And Tyrion was held in a cell at the Eyrie for several days. So Bronn had enough time to get from Varys instructions what he should do next.

How is Bronn supposed to send a raven from the Eyrie? Don't you think Coleman would think it the slightest bit suspicious that this grubby common sellsword has to send an urgent message to Kings Landing, and immediately tell his liege lady about it?

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16 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

So whyd Loras join the KG?

Oh, I dunno, maybe so the KG has at least one member the Queen can trust? :dunno:

14 hours ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

This may seem logic at first though but it's actually not. Why would Littlefinger make openly enemies The Tyrells? The Tyrells control Highgarden and The Reach, and now they also control the Throne, they are not enemies you want to make. They could even send assasins for him.

And with Harrenhal, his marriage to Lysa Arryn, and Sansa in his custody, LF can soon claim to control the Vale, the North, and the Riverlands. He's working towards a position of power that can cow even the Tyrells. He might not be there yet, but he's certainly capable of stringing them along with excuses and other distractions to keep them off balance - that's his strength, remember. Also add in that both LF and the Tyrells are pretending to be allies of House Lannister and/or the Iron Throne, so it's not just a matter of weighting Tyrell against Baelish - there are other players in the mix.

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46 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

How is Bronn supposed to send a raven from the Eyrie? Don't you think Coleman would think it the slightest bit suspicious that this grubby common sellsword has to send an urgent message to Kings Landing, and immediately tell his liege lady about it?

Do you really think that Varys doesn't have his agents in every major castle of 7K? I bet that he has at least one spy in each of this castles - Red Keep, Storm's End, The Eyrie, Riverrun, Winterfell, Casterly Rock, Sunspear, Highgarden, Pyke. He admitted that he has a spy even in the Citadel. How else is he getting news from all over Westeros? It's not his little birds, who personally deliver to him all those messages from all over 7K. How do you imagine it - do you think that a street urchin from the Vale goes on foot from the Eyrie to King's Landing to deliver information to Varys? Seriously? Varys has agents everywhere, and they are not just children. And his spies have access to important information, and means how to get that information from wherever they are to Varys. Thus it's logical that Varys' people have access to raven-mail and can use it whenever.

How else do you thought Varys is able to know everything that is going on all over 7K, furthermore to always have relevant and fresh information?

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3 hours ago, Megorova said:

How else do you thought Varys is able to know everything that is going on all over 7K, furthermore to always have relevant and fresh information?

But does he? He was at a total loss over the progress of LF's mission to Bitterbridge and beyond. He has sources all over KL, true, and in a few select places, but beyond the capital he's often as uninformed as anyone else at court.

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17 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

But does he? He was at a total loss over the progress of LF's mission to Bitterbridge and beyond. He has sources all over KL, true, and in a few select places, but beyond the capital he's often as uninformed as anyone else at court.

:agree:

The idea that Varys has spies literally in every major castle in every region, who not only spy but are also able to send ravens whenever they want is preposterous. And that’s before we even look at the logistics of how does he receive these messages, since rookeries seem to be tended to by maesters. So, either Varys would need a secret personal rookery, which is ridiculous b/c there’s no way to have one inconspicuously, or he uses the RK’s, which is also ridiculous b/c any maesters assigned there would report directly to Pycelle.  

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1 hour ago, Rufus Snow said:

He was at a total loss over the progress of LF's mission to Bitterbridge and beyond.

That's because (I think) Littlefinger used to be one of Varys' agents. He knows what methods Varys is using to get information, and who are working for him. Thus, by knowing how Varys' spy-network works, LF was able to avoid it.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

The idea that Varys has spies literally in every major castle in every region, who not only spy but are also able to send ravens whenever they want is preposterous.

Though not totally impossible.

Just think about who Varys is, and what he is capable of doing. He spent 22 years in 7K. That's more than enough time to cast his spy-network all over continent, in all big cities, in all major castles. His agents are not only little birds, street urchins or orphants. Some of his people are lords and ladies. 

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

And that’s before we even look at the logistics of how does he receive these messages, since rookeries seem to be tended to by maesters. So, either Varys would need a secret personal rookery, which is ridiculous b/c there’s no way to have one inconspicuously, or he uses the RK’s, which is also ridiculous b/c any maesters assigned there would report directly to Pycelle.  

Examples:

- a washerwoman that attend people that live in the castle. She goes into their chambers to gather dirty laundry, or change sheets. And while she's there alone, she goes thru their things. For example, one of this people is a Castellan, and in his room there are documents about important things that happen in that castle. She reads those documents, memorises them, later writes small reports to Varys, goes to rookery to chat with a maester, to ask him whether he needs something to wash or whatever, and while she is there she's also looking what documents, notes, messages he has there. And if he's not there, when she went to him, then she can use his absence, take one of his ravens and sent her report to Varys.

- a stableboy. Very convenient position to go thru personal things and luggage of riders that deliver messages from this castle to someplace else, or from someplace else to this castle. This way it's also possible to use riders to deliver messages unknowingly even to them. For example, Varys has a stableboy that works for him at Riverrun, and a stableboy at Harrenhall. Whenever there's a rider that goes with official correspondence (something too important or too big to be delivered by raven-mail) from Riverrun to Harrenhall, or from Harrenhall to Riverrun, the stableboy that works at the sender-castle, hides his own message, for example inside the saddle, and the stableboy at recepient-castle knows where he supposed to check for a hiden message/note, whether there was one of those sent.

- besides tending to ravens, maesters also have a lot of other work. Thus in castles there are other people that help them. For example at Castle Black Jon was once helping maester Aemon to prepare food for ravens and to feed them. Thus this kind of person, who brings to maesters feed for ravens, can use this accessibility to send his own messages.

- pages and maids. When Egg was serving as a page at King's Landing, he was often present during gatherings of the Small Council. When Arya was serving to Tywin at Harrenhall, she also often was present, when he was discussing important and secret things with his people. No one pays attention to servants, especially if they are children. What will happen if a maester, while entering into a rookery, will see there a page or a maid? Will he suspect them that they are spies? Will he think that they were there to send a secret message to their spymaster? Of course not. Those kids will just say that they wanted to see ravens. Though, most likely, they won't be even asked about why they were there or for what. Otherwise they can make up some fake reason why they went in the rookery. For example, certain lady sent her maid to find a maester and ask him about certain medicine, or whatever.

- coded messages; or messages with double ink, one of which is invisible. Even if this message will be received by a maester, he won't realise what the message is really about. Outwardly it could be some irrelevant message about random things, and maester will give this message to recepient. That recepient could be either Varys, or one of his people, or even not one of Varys' agents. For example, in case with messages written in double ink, the lord or lady that sent "open" message to his/her pen-pal in some other castle, would be totally unaware if one of Varys' people, prior that message will be sent, will add there "hidden" message in invisible ink, and on this paper there will be made a small mark. One of Varys' people at the castle to which this message was sent, will be looking for a letter with this mark, and then will take this letter, read the actual hidden message and then made it invisible again (I saw that sort of things in a movie). 

Thus Varys doesn't need to have a secret personal rookery, he can use other peoples' means for his spy-network and deliveries.

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3 minutes ago, Megorova said:

a washerwoman that attend people that live in the castle. She goes into their chambers to gather dirty laundry, or change sheets. And while she's there alone, she goes thru their things. For example, one of this people is a Castellan, and in his room there are documents about important things that happen in that castle. She reads those documents, memorises them, later writes small reports to Varys, goes to rookery to chat with a maester, to ask him whether he needs something to wash or whatever, and while she is there she's also looking what documents, notes, messages he has there. And if he's not there, when she went to him, then she can use his absence, take one of his ravens and sent her report to Vary

So, this is not only a literate washerwoman, she’s 007! :lol:

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5 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

Oh, I dunno, maybe so the KG has at least one member the Queen can trust? :dunno:

And with Harrenhal, his marriage to Lysa Arryn, and Sansa in his custody, LF can soon claim to control the Vale, the North, and the Riverlands. He's working towards a position of power that can cow even the Tyrells. He might not be there yet, but he's certainly capable of stringing them along with excuses and other distractions to keep them off balance - that's his strength, remember. Also add in that both LF and the Tyrells are pretending to be allies of House Lannister and/or the Iron Throne, so it's not just a matter of weighting Tyrell against Baelish - there are other players in the mix.

He is not there. He has a lot o fhidden power but not a lot of solidified power compared to the Grea Houses of Westeros. He can't make enemies the big Houses, he is still a nobody.

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On 3/26/2020 at 12:00 PM, Megorova said:

Do you really think that Varys doesn't have his agents in every major castle of 7K? I bet that he has at least one spy in each of this castles - Red Keep, Storm's End, The Eyrie, Riverrun, Winterfell, Casterly Rock, Sunspear, Highgarden, Pyke. He admitted that he has a spy even in the Citadel. How else is he getting news from all over Westeros? It's not his little birds, who personally deliver to him all those messages from all over 7K. How do you imagine it - do you think that a street urchin from the Vale goes on foot from the Eyrie to King's Landing to deliver information to Varys? Seriously? Varys has agents everywhere, and they are not just children. And his spies have access to important information, and means how to get that information from wherever they are to Varys. Thus it's logical that Varys' people have access to raven-mail and can use it whenever.

How else do you thought Varys is able to know everything that is going on all over 7K, furthermore to always have relevant and fresh information?

2

Even little birds can't just take ravens from the rookery and send them away without the maester knowing. That's part of his job: to keep the ravens so that urgent, important messages can be sent when necessary. And then is this little bird supposed to wait in the maester's chambers until the raven returns, hoping neither the maester nor anyone else notices? Please. Ravens are not available to Bronn. No way, no how.

And I think you are vastly overestimating Varys' spy network. He has little birds in KL, but the Citadel and elsewhere are probably just regular informants, and there is no reason to think he has people in every castle throughout the land.

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20 hours ago, Megorova said:

One of them - https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Brella

Part of her special training is fake snoring, to make people think that she is sleeping, while she isn't. ^_^

Please. Pretty please. Think about it... This is a very silly idea, even if it is very funny...

I’m now picturing this literate washerwoman, which is already a HUGE stretch, w/ an eidetic memory, walking around a castle in the middle of the night, rummaging for top secret documents, while fake-snoring all along. I mean, it’s right out of films like Top Secret or Naked Gun, or a Monty Python skit.

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2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Please. Pretty please. Think about it... This is a very silly idea, even if it is very funny...

It is funny, but she is Varys' spy. And she went to work as a washerwoman for whores not because other people won't take her as a maid after she served to two traitors (<- that's totally a lie), she went there because those whores are working for Littlefinger, and Varys placed his spy to spy after LF's spies.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Even little birds can't just take ravens from the rookery and send them away without the maester knowing.

Amongst Varys' agents there are not only mute little birds or other children, there are also adults from both castes - smallfolk and nobles.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

He has little birds in KL, but the Citadel and elsewhere are probably just regular informants, and there is no reason to think he has people in every castle throughout the land.

Not in every castle, but definitely in all capital castles of 7K's regions.

Though it's likely that with everything that happened since the beginning of AGOT, Varys had lost his agent stationed at Winterfell, and the one at Storm's End, and maybe at the Eyrie and Riverrun too.

My candidates for Varys' agents: Balon Swann, Jalabhar Xho, Anguy, Ravella Swann-Smallwood, Carellen Smallwood (Varys' spy at the Citadel), Paxter Redwyne, Gerold Dayne, Bronn, Chiggen (dead), washerwoman Brella, Mandone Moore (supposedly dead), Salladhor Saan, Aurane Waters, Shae (dead), Selwyn Tarth, Velaryons and Florents and all Swanns, Jory Cassel from Winterfell. Or not.

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On 3/27/2020 at 5:21 PM, Megorova said:

It is funny, but she is Varys' spy. And she went to work as a washerwoman for whores not because other people won't take her as a maid after she served to two traitors (<- that's totally a lie), she went there because those whores are working for Littlefinger, and Varys placed his spy to spy after LF's spies.

Amongst Varys' agents there are not only mute little birds or other children, there are also adults from both castes - smallfolk and nobles.

Not in every castle, but definitely in all capital castles of 7K's regions.

Though it's likely that with everything that happened since the beginning of AGOT, Varys had lost his agent stationed at Winterfell, and the one at Storm's End, and maybe at the Eyrie and Riverrun too.

My candidates for Varys' agents: Balon Swann, Jalabhar Xho, Anguy, Ravella Swann-Smallwood, Carellen Smallwood (Varys' spy at the Citadel), Paxter Redwyne, Gerold Dayne, Bronn, Chiggen (dead), washerwoman Brella, Mandone Moore (supposedly dead), Salladhor Saan, Aurane Waters, Shae (dead), Selwyn Tarth, Velaryons and Florents and all Swanns, Jory Cassel from Winterfell. Or not.

And this thought of putting a washerwoman in one of Petyr's brothels had never occurred to Varys before this? Not even when he's complaining to Illyrio that "the gods know what Littlefinger is up to"? LF has been MoC for a number of years from now and has remained the only lord who Varys is completely blind to, and only just now has it dawned on him to put a spy in his camp? :rolleyes:

It doesn't matter how old or young they are, nobody can just take a raven and send it flying. And they certainly can't wait around the rookery for hours or days waiting for a response. Sorry, but this is simply not possible.

Sorry, no. There is no indication that he has anyone in Winterfell, or the Eryie, or Casterly Rock, or Pyke . . . They don't let just anybody work in the lord's castle. You need references and a certified backstory, and anyone from far away would be spotted by the accent.

Good grief. Jory Cassel, nephew to Ser Rodrick, who gave his life for Ned on the streets of King's Landing -- a Varys spy. Selwyn Tarth, as well, and the pirate Saan. Why not Barriston Selmy? Varys got him to Illyrio, after all. Why not Renly? Melisandre, King Robert, the Sealord of Braavos . . . How about Littlefinger working for Varys as well? 

 

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20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

LF has been MoC for a number of years from now and has remained the only lord who Varys is completely blind to, and only just now has it dawned on him to put a spy in his camp? 

Of course not. Most likely, Varys multiple times placed his spies amongst LF's people. Though it's likely that LF found them each time, and got rid of them.

20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Good grief. Jory Cassel, nephew to Ser Rodrick, who gave his life for Ned on the streets of King's Landing -- a Varys spy. Selwyn Tarth, as well, and the pirate Saan. Why not Barriston Selmy?

Because Barristan is a Blackfyre, and fAegon's father. Maybe.

20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

How about Littlefinger working for Varys as well? 

I think that he did in the past. Years before he became master of Coin, even before he came to KL.

I'm sure that Littlefinger is a dragonseed and bloodrelated to Varys. And that Varys came to Westeros all those years ago, to find in 7K people with dragonblood, to give one of them to Golden Company, as replacement of Serra Blackfyre's unborn child, who was supposed to become leader of GC, but didn't, because Serra died before giving birth. Varys, who is also a Blackfyre, made a deal with Golden Company, that he will find them a dragonseed, bloodrelated to Blackfyres, for that person to become their leader, and the future King of 7K. Possibly LF was one of those early candidates, though later Varys found someone better, with purer blood.

In my opinion LF is descendant of Aegon IV Targaryen and his mistress Falena Stokeworth. It's highly likely that Falena's daughter, Jeyne Lothston, was Aegon's daughter. There's a possibility that the Bastard of Harrenhal is Jeyne's child from Aegon. It seems that he was posed as Lucas Lothston's child, same as Jeyne. This Bastard could have been Manfryd o' the Black Hood. Could be that he got that nickname because he was always wearing a black hood, because he was hiding under it his silver-gold hair. Would be suspicious if a guy, who is supposedly bastard of Lucas Lothston (Lothstons are red-heads, same as children of Minisa Whent-Tully) had Targaryen hair color, to addition of those rumors, that Jeyne Lothston was Aegon's daughter. At the time of First Blackfyre Rebellion son of Lucas Lothston sided with Blackfyres, but then betrayed them. I think that he betrayed them because he made a deal with King Daeron that he will be legitimised as Lucas' son and will become a Lothston and not a Bastard of Harrenhall. Nevertheless, even though he was legitimized, somehow Harrenhall was passed on to Danella Lothston and not to Manfryd. So after that he went to Braavos, to establish relationship with other spurted and unacknowledged bastards of Aegon the Unworthy, and had a child with one of Otheryses, either with one of daughters or granddaughters of Aegon's mistress, Bellegere Otherys, first Black Pearl of Braavos. LF's great grandfather, a sellsword from Braavos, is son of the Bastard of Harrenhall and an Otherys-girl. When later he (the Bastard) returned to Westeros, he became a Whent, and was a knight in service of House Lothston, and then caused a downfall of Lothstons and became first Lord Whent of Harrenhall. He was grandfather of Lady Shella Whent, Walter, Oswell, and Minisa Whent (Catelyn Tully's mother). LF is Cat's and Lysa's third cousin. The Bastard of Harrenhall was Daemon Blackfyre's half-brother, so LF was third cousin of Daemon and Maelys Blackfyre. So when Varys came to Westeros, he found LF and offered him to become a Blackfyre Prince. Though later he found a person with more Blackfyre genes. I think that Barystan Selmy's mother was Aenys Blackfyre's daughter. So Barristan is second cousin of Daemon and Maelys. Though, instead of converting Barry into a Blackfyre, and persuading him to lead Golden Company, Varys together with Shiera Seastar, the Kingswood Brotherhood and Jeyne Swann made a trap for him, and Barry conceived a child with Jeyne (on the same night when was conceived Rhaegar's Aegon). The septa that was with Jeyne, was Shiera Seastar in shadow-glamour. Nowadays Jeyne is using an alias septa Lemore. Obviously that it's just a theory, and I could be totally wrong about all of this.

Though if I'm right, then it explains what's between Varys and Littlefinger, and LF's obsession with Tully-girls, and who is fAegon, and why LF is acting against Varys. That's because Varys promised him the leadership of Golden Company and to get Iron Throne for him, but later casted him away, because he made a better plan, in which Targaryen Crown is going to be given to fAegon.

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20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

My candidates for Varys' agents: Balon Swann, Jalabhar Xho, Anguy, Ravella Swann-Smallwood, Carellen Smallwood (Varys' spy at the Citadel), Paxter Redwyne, Gerold Dayne, Bronn, Chiggen (dead), washerwoman Brella, Mandone Moore (supposedly dead), Salladhor Saan, Aurane Waters, Shae (dead), Selwyn Tarth, Velaryons and Florents and all Swanns, Jory Cassel from Winterfell. Or not.

Are you serious? Jory Cassel a spy working for Varys... that’s almost better than Shiera being the 3EC. :lol:

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