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Tywin Manderly

Will We Stand The Corona Test of Time? - Covid #7

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The number of cases in South Africa has jumped from 61 to 402 over the past 8 days. The President has now declared a nationwide lockdown for 21 days effective from midnight 26 March to midnight 16 April. The national defence force has been mobilised to support the police service.

People will not be allowed to leave their homes except under strictly controlled circumstances such as to seek medical care, buy food, medicine and other supplies or collect a social grant. All shops and businesses will be closed except for pharmacies, laboratories, banks, essential financial and payment services, including the JSE, supermarkets, petrol stations and health care providers.

The categories of people who will be exempted from the lockdown: health workers, emergency personnel, those in security services – such as the police, traffic officers, military medical personnel, soldiers – and other persons necessary for the response to the pandemic including those involved in the production, distribution and supply of food and basic goods, essential banking services, the maintenance of power, water and telecommunications services, laboratory services, and the provision of medical and hygiene products. A full list of essential personnel will be published soon. 

Regulations have been put in place to prohibit unjustified price hikes as well as to prevent people from panic buying. The president has also reiterated that any attempts to profiteer from this crisis will not be tolerated. Special units of the National Prosecuting Authority have been put together to act immediately and arrest those who are found to be doing this. The judiciary has also been asked to expedite cases against those implicated. 

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Sadly, six more deaths in Stockholm put Sweden at 33 deaths, meaning we're doubling every 3 days, or at least we were  10-12 days ago (since deaths are a lagging indicator). But it's only after that point that we began social distancing efforts officially, so we'll see how it continues to play out. New cases per day, less of a lagging indicator, is still trending down.

Also sadly, it sounds like Swedish Somalis are the hardest hit in Stockholm. 6 of the 9 who died prior to today were elders of that community. This explains why a few days ago the government said they recognized too late that they needed to get information out in more languages.

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Apparently the first 100000 cases took 67 days, the next 100000 took 11, the one after that 4. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Apparently the first 100000 cases took 67 days, the next 100000 took 11, the one after that 4. 

That wouldn’t be exponential growth by any chance, would it?

:idea:

Edited by Fragile Bird

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9 minutes ago, KingintheNorth4 said:

It's times like these were I'm glad that I'm such a bookworm.

Its times like these I'm glad I'm a chronic piss head. 

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47 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Apparently the first 100000 cases took 67 days, the next 100000 took 11, the one after that 4. 

These numbers are an artifact of the testing. Realistically, there are almost certainly millions of cases out there right now...

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1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

Apparently the first 100000 cases took 67 days, the next 100000 took 11, the one after that 4. 

There are a lot of grim numbers out there.

I saw a post earlier pointing out that the number of official recoveries from Covid-19 has now passed 100000, which is a slightly more positive landmark.

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I'm really worried about India. As of this moment, the WHO map has them with 434 reported cases. The positive news there is that, since the numbers are finally changing daily, it must mean they've started some kind of testing. But until just a few days ago, the numbers were at something like 155 for day after day after day. Obviously, these numbers are way, way low and as I understand it, India's ratio of doctors to population is below the WHO recommendation of 1:1000. And also obviously, the government doesn't have the same resources to address the crisis that we have in the US. At the same time, they have a population of 1.3 billion and the cities are very crowded. The good news is that the country is addressing the crisis as best they can with 30 states on lockdown, suspension of air travel, and a curfew. But it seems like it could get very bad there. 

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I was chatting with a friend last night and he told me he saw some stories about Covid-19 actually being considered a version of SARs. Apparently there are researchers out there who are saying Covid-19 is actually a new an improved version of SARs.

What he pm'd me:

"Two strains of the virus have caused outbreaks of severe respiratory diseases in humans: SARS-CoV, which caused an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) between 2002 and 2003, and SARS-CoV-2, which since late 2019 has caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).[7][8]

Coronaviridae Study Group of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (March 2020). "The species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: classifying 2019-nCoV and naming it SARS-CoV-2". Nature Microbiology.

Lau SK, Li KS, Huang Y, Shek CT, Tse H, Wang M, et al. (March 2010). "Ecoepidemiology and complete genome comparison of different strains of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related Rhinolophus bat coronavirus in China reveal bats as a reservoir for acute, self-limiting infection that allows recombination events". Journal of Virology. 84 (6): 2808–19. doi:10.1128/JVI.02219-09. PMC 2826035. PMID 20071579., the original being SARs."

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Posted (edited)

BBC making a cheerful point that the improving weather and the British pub culture for going out for a drink when the sun is shining is going to test the lockdown to its limit, although the pubs being closed should help that.

4 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I was chatting with a friend last night and he told me he saw some stories about Covid-19 actually being considered a version of SARs. Apparently there are researchers out there who are saying Covid-19 is actually a new an improved version of SARs.

What he pm'd me:

"Two strains of the virus have caused outbreaks of severe respiratory diseases in humans: SARS-CoV, which caused an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) between 2002 and 2003, and SARS-CoV-2, which since late 2019 has caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).[7][8]

Coronaviridae Study Group of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (March 2020). "The species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: classifying 2019-nCoV and naming it SARS-CoV-2". Nature Microbiology.

Lau SK, Li KS, Huang Y, Shek CT, Tse H, Wang M, et al. (March 2010). "Ecoepidemiology and complete genome comparison of different strains of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related Rhinolophus bat coronavirus in China reveal bats as a reservoir for acute, self-limiting infection that allows recombination events". Journal of Virology. 84 (6): 2808–19. doi:10.1128/JVI.02219-09. PMC 2826035. PMID 20071579., the original being SARs."

Yup. It comes from the same source, except they seem to think this came from pangolins rather than bats or birds. Chinese wet markets with poor or non-existent hygiene seems to the same root cause. I thought China cracked down on them after the 2002 scare but apparently not. I suspect they will now, and that'll be a proper, hardcore Chinese crackdown to try to make sure it never happens again.

It may be more luck than anything else that we have avoided a global pandemic for so long. Almost every candidate that's sprung up has spread slowly or been too lethal, so it killed the host before it could spread widely.

Edited by Werthead

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Just now, Werthead said:

BBC making a cheerful point that the improving weather and the British pub culture for going out for a drink when the sun is shining is going to test the lockdown to its limit, although the pubs being closed should help that.

 

Supermarkets need to stock up on charcoal. 

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14 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Supermarkets need to stock up on charcoal. 

On the plus side, for the first time in weeks I saw the shelves actually have a lot of the all mighty TP on them. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

On the plus side, for the first time in weeks I saw the shelves actually have a lot of the all mighty TP on them. 

I suspect we might see a second run of panic buying tomorrow.

The belated good news about thirty years of recklessly sky-rocketing house and rental prices is that a substantial portion of the British population lives in far too small a domicile to hoard enormous amounts of food and/or Andrex, otherwise the situation would probably be far worse than it is. Yay?

Edited by Werthead

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I’ve heard stories about people buying multiple freezers and setting them up in their garages. Of course, I don’t have a garage so not an option for me.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

I’ve heard stories about people buying multiple freezers and setting them up in their garages. Of course, I don’t have a garage so not an option for me.

So basically the quite well-off are doing it.

Still, their electricity bill is going to hurt. Not enough, but a bit.

Edited by Werthead

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23 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I suspect we might see a second run of panic buying tomorrow.

Is this a U.K. specific comment? 

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