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Will We Stand The Corona Test of Time? - Covid #7


Tywin Manderly

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4 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

In Norway you can casually log in and find out what your friends and neighbours earn each year. They are open as fuck. 

Heh. Most boring day in news, that, when tax returns are made public. 

Nothing but non stop coverage of who-earned-what in every city, county, region, muncipality, celebrity category, etc.. Perhaps this year will be different? Fingers crossed.

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38 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

I am not a fan of his politics, but holy fucking lord, I'd trade competence over orthodoxy 10 times out of 10 right about now.

Yeah, well, we had a run of dud governors in NY for quite few years. I voted to Cuomo, but I didn’t have strong feelings one way or another other until now. 

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14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Interesting dataset estimating social distancing in US.  Uses aggregated cell phone location data to estimate how much people are traveling, compared to a normal day.  Obviously, such a metric has some limitations, but overall Americans are traveling 32% less than "normal" since social distancing started.  Overall, social distancing is happening more in "blue" states and counties, and less in more republican areas.  No surprises there. 

32% is better than nothing, but fucking hell, that is absolutely nowhere near what is needed to get on top of this.

I'd want to see the same kind of coverage for Italy and Spain (maybe the UK, but I fear for the results).

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5 minutes ago, Arakan said:

A question to all my dear fellow US posters here. I just watched Cuomo‘s press conference/urgency presentation in some hall. 

A competent, intelligent, determined and dedicated political leader. Objective clear analysis, no fake melodrama, no nonsense attitude. Calm but focused. I don’t know nothing about his policies or ideological standings. Doesn’t even matter. He seems a man of integrity. If you agree with him or not. 
 

How in God‘s name is some bullshit con artist like Trump president and not he? How is a nice grandpa like Biden presumably running against the con artist? It doesn’t make any sense. Maybe it’s because I like leadership styles like Merkel or former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt. But it makes no sense to me. Cuomo can rebuild the US. Sorry OT I guess. 

Trust me, if I knew the answer to that question, I'd be a wealthy man by now.

I'm 41 years old and have lived in a mostly Republican-controlled state for nearly my entire life, and it still baffles me. A lot of the people I've known my entire life, either those my own age, or older Okies like friends and acquaintances of my parents, have somehow bought hard into his bullshit.

And these were people that I had thought for years were compassionate, decent people. Yes, a higher proportion of them are conservative given where I live, but most of them backed another candidate in 2016 before they embraced Trump, but now a lot of them are fully invested in staying on this ride to the end. 

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40 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Italy number jumped again, nearly 750 deaths. 

I can’t find the figure for new cases today, I was hoping that at least would be lower? You’d expect deaths to lag behind new cases due to the time it takes to die from it.

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2 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

While the number of deaths in Italy is bad, the number of new cases is still slowing. Though obviously that depends on the testing regime. 

I'm fairly sure I read that they've moved to a similar testing regime as that of NYC, in that they're not employing widespread testing in order to conserve resources. Can't find the article now.

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1 minute ago, DaveSumm said:

I can’t find the figure for new cases today, I was hoping that at least would be lower? You’d expect deaths to lag behind new cases due to the time it takes to die from it.

It is. Rate of new infections still following downward trend. 

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5 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

While the number of deaths in Italy is bad, the number of new cases is still slowing. Though obviously that depends on the testing regime. 

The testing in Italy is apparently very sporadic. They're not testing people who don't have severe symptoms and people self-isolated at home, it's all hands on deck in the hospitals.

Some Italian doctors on the BBC yesterday confirming they'd had the illness, recovered and have gone straight back into work, which will help as more doctors are infected. It'll also be a stress-test of how much immunity is conferred by exposure and what the correlations are between viral load, the course of infection and immunity. If the immunity is reasonable, it may also mean those doctors won't have to worry as much about self-infection.

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My housemate came back from an unavoidable trip over the weekend, so we're now self-isolating in the house from each other for 7 days and being ultra-careful in shared spaces (kitchen, bathroom) which should very much not be fun. He has zero symptoms, I've been fending off what appears to be a standard cold (albeit with slightly worrying chest aches) for about a week and it appears the allergy season is also kicking in, so I'm probably more of a cause for concern at the moment (although I haven't been out of the house barring a single trip to the corner shop in thirteen days).

Fortunately our other housemate headed off home (to Lithuania) eight days ago and probably won't be back, as the rest of his uni course is being done on-line, so that removes a major source of potential transmission into and out of the house.

19 minutes ago, lessthanluke said:

My city centre (Preston) was pretty damn empty today so maybe people are listening? Slowly 

Good. My very real fear was that people would go apeshit over the lockdown and go panic-mad today, but things seem to be relatively okay, although some idiots torched a couple of Iceland lorries in Bristol for some reason and there's reports of "virus lock-ins" doing on at some pubs.

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28 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The testing in Italy is apparently very sporadic. They're not testing people who don't have severe symptoms and people self-isolated at home, it's all hands on deck in the hospitals.

Some Italian doctors on the BBC yesterday confirming they'd had the illness, recovered and have gone straight back into work, which will help as more doctors are infected. It'll also be a stress-test of how much immunity is conferred by exposure and what the correlations are between viral load, the course of infection and immunity. If the immunity is reasonable, it may also mean those doctors won't have to worry as much about self-infection.

I think it's safe to assume that if you've gotten it and recovered, you'll be immune.  Generally speaking, since there isn't any treatment, recovery means the patient's immune system was able to fight off the disease, which means the patient should have plenty of neutralizing antibodies to prevent reinfection.  

There's been more and more discussion regarding the need for antibody based assays in conjunction with the PCR based assays to detect people that have recovered from the disease.  These people should be able to return to work, shop for groceries, etc., without putting other people at risk.

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1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Trust me, if I knew the answer to that question, I'd be a wealthy man by now.

I'm 41 years old and have lived in a mostly Republican-controlled state for nearly my entire life, and it still baffles me. A lot of the people I've known my entire life, either those my own age, or older Okies like friends and acquaintances of my parents, have somehow bought hard into his bullshit.

And these were people that I had thought for years were compassionate, decent people. Yes, a higher proportion of them are conservative given where I live, but most of them backed another candidate in 2016 before they embraced Trump, but now a lot of them are fully invested in staying on this ride to the end. 

I can only imagine how frustrating it must be. He is an utterly embarrassing joke of a caricature of a man of integrity or competent political leader. He is a clown. Be right, be left. This man has no redeeming qualities. Maybe, just maybe and be that the glimmer of hope for Americans, this whole pandemic catastrophe is a huge wake up call. There are still man like Fauci, risking his life everyday (79 years old!), and Cuomo out there. And the better they perform, the worse a clown like Trump looks. 

I saw a videoclip how he made fun of a disabled journalist IIRC on one of his ego booster campaign trips. Garbage, rat, cockroach. This is Trump. Sorry. I just despise him so much. And everyone in the world can see what damage he does to your country. 

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25 minutes ago, Werthead said:

My housemate came back from an unavoidable trip over the weekend, so we're now self-isolating in the house from each other for 7 days and being ultra-careful in shared spaces (kitchen, bathroom) which should very much not be fun. 

The tech director of my theatre called yesterday. He had a meeting last week at the college’s museum then came to a meeting with me. Someone at his first meeting has just had a positive test (and they are only testing hospitalized cases here due to lack of tests). He has no symptoms but is required to self-isolate (we’re under a stay at home mandate anyway) and has relocated his 80+ year old mom to his brother’s (she lives with him) and has reported himself to rue county health dept. I am probably fine, I have no symptoms and the contact is minimal on my end, but my husband is suitably freaked out. Plus, he takes Humira and therefore has a suppressed immune system. 

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We have the first cases of people refusing the test for their kids here in Austria. They tested 191 kids in one school but two parents refused the test. 

We have cases in retirement homes now which does not surprise me at because it least in the one a friend of mine is working sick caretakers are not tested and are just sent home on sick leave(more than half the staff at his workplace are on sick leave at this point).

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1 minute ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

We have the first cases of people refusing the test for their kids here in Austria. They tested 191 kids in one school but two parents refused the test. 

We have cases in retirement homes now which does not surprise me at because it least in the one a friend of mine is working sick caretakers are not tested and are just sent home on sick leave(more than half the staff at his workplace are on sick leave at that point).

Are you satisfied with your chancellor Kurz‘ approach so far? His handlings or the pandemic are the model for the Bavarian lockdown approach. My sister lives in Salzburg. Borders are closed and I cannot visit or see her even in case of emergency. It is all so fucked up. 

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22 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

There's been more and more discussion regarding the need for antibody based assays in conjunction with the PCR based assays to detect people that have recovered from the disease.  These people should be able to return to work, shop for groceries, etc., without putting other people at risk.

We also need that test to identify people who've had so mild symptoms that they didn't even know they had it, both so they can also get back to normal and aren't freaking out unnecessarily for the next however many months.

Greta Thunberg posted today that her father had pretty definitive symptoms of C19 (he is now recovering) but she had barely a normal cold and shrugged it off. That's more due to her age, but there are some signs that there are more asymptomatic and barely-symptomatic people in older groups (there is that Chinese study that suggests that the number of asymptomatic cases in all age bands may be waaaay higher than thought, but that's not been backed up by additional data yet).

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And, just as I thought, Oklahoma ranks near the bottom when it comes to how aggressively the state is testing for COVID-19.

Governor holding a press conference at 4:00 CST. Many are expecting him to announce shelter-in-place guidelines.

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