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Will We Stand The Corona Test of Time? - Covid #7


Tywin Manderly

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2 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

I’ve been questioning how accurate worldometer is for some weeks. It always says completely different things than other sources I consider reliable. Does anybody know what sources they use? 

 

The tracker updates constantly, starting at 0 at 0 GMT. Some countries seem to update only once a day, some countries update throughout the day so their numbers always change. For example, Australia seems to update only once a day. Canada updates several times a day, as different provinces report their numbers. The first number reported is usually Ontario’s 10:30 am number, which gets updated at 5:30 pm, and other provinces seem to report once a day. The US states report all day.

I have seen the US number wrong once, when it looked like the total got double counted. But Worldometer seems on top of things and faster than any other site. 
The Canadian government site, for example, is always two days behind, and therefore useless to me, perhaps out of a desire to be overly cautious and accurate. 
 

The number of deaths is the most reliable figure - the number of cases obviously depends on testing being done. You just don’t really know if all the states that show very low numbers are in good shape or if they simply haven’t been testing.

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47 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Prince Charles confirmed, he is 71 but i'm getting he is getting a ventilator, but if Phillip or the Queen have it they are screwed. 

So we can just speed up Billy being king now, right?

What if he has it? What if his wife and kids do too? And sadly they die?

American Queen still a possibility? 

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7 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

 

The Canadian government site, for example, is always two days behind, and therefore useless to me, perhaps out of a desire to be overly cautious and accurate. 

Same issue with the official German numbers published by the Robert Koch Institut. Always at least 24h behind or even longer. Reporting structures in federal countries seem to be a special nightmare. It really is better just to look at the cumulative figures over a certain period (3-5 days).

It‘s annoying because reliable data of case development is so important right now to see if the political measures are working or not. And every day counts. Delay a certain action for 3 or 6 days and you might end up with a factor 2x or 4x of the total number of infected. The power of exponential growth. 

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37 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

I'm not sure "the fear of God" is something anybody needs, like, ever.

Wrong. It worked like a charm during the year I taught 5th and 7th graders English and Math while being the PE leader. Colonel Kurtz would have been proud of the unit I ran.

ETA: Other than that time I drilled a little girl in the face with a dodgeball. That was my bad. 

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7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:


ETA: Other than that time I drilled a little girl in the face with a dodgeball. That was my bad. 

While you were teaching dodgeball?

And she didn’t dodge?

She-it. That’s not you’re bad. You were just being a good teacher. 

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15 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Wrong. It worked like a charm during the year I taught 5th and 7th graders English and Math while being the PE leader. Colonel Kurtz would have been proud of the unit I ran.

ETA: Other than that time I drilled a little girl in the face with a dodgeball. That was my bad. 

Thats how I manage my team, aggressive development.  And bullying, but only if its funny. 

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14 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

While you were teaching dodgeball?

And she didn’t dodge?

She-it. That’s not you’re bad. You were just being a good teacher. 

No. I took it easy on most of the kids, but I challenged the few athletic ones. And the best one narrowly dodged the ball. She was just standing behind him.

8 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Thats how I manage my team, aggressive development.  And bullying, but only if its funny. 

I would have just assumed you were on the take and let your force do the same to maintain social cohesion. 

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4 hours ago, Liv Stark said:

Are there statistics somewhere about the age/health condition of those who had to be hospitalized because of covid 19? (not just the death)

 

(I'm trying to convince some people that even if you are young and healthy covid is still dangerous for you )

Some data on that from the Netherlands (blue hospitalization, red deaths), not all deaths were of people that were hospitalized. Not all data is complete.

https://i.imgur.com/GmMayUe.png

 

https://nos.nl/artikel/2328082-zeker-helft-coronadoden-had-onderliggende-aandoening-twee-derde-is-man.html

Generally the Netherlands barely tests, so this only gives a rough idea.

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8 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

734 deaths in 24 hours in Spain, I hope they reach their plateau soon.  

What is the healthcare system in Spain like?

For Spain goes the same as for Italy. Large regional discrepancies. But the region worst hit in Spain (Madrid) is on top level. No significant differences to e.g. Germany. They are simply overwhelmed by the number of critical cases. 

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1 hour ago, Arakan said:

Maybe what is needed to wake up the ignorants all around the world. Playing ugly devils advocate but when such a prominent figure has to be hospitalized it will give many the fear of God. Which is needed. 

Tom Hanks must die!

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1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

Prince Charles confirmed, he is 71 but i'm getting he is getting a ventilator, but if Phillip or the Queen have it they are screwed. 

Prince Phillip isn’t in great health, but it’s worth remembering that there is no age group for which death from Covid-19 is probable. The Queen hasn’t had that many issues as far as I remember, I bet she’d kick this one.

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2 hours ago, Ran said:

That's an interesting thought, and I'm sure UK members may have some ideas as to why the UK's ICU resources fell. I will say Sweden cut back its intensive care beds quite heavily over the last few decades, and indeed starting in the 90s, so it may have a similar root -- they kept a lot for fear of a hot war and with that out of the way they started to feel like it was wasteful to have so many.

The numbers fell in part because general health and life expectancy rose in the UK (despite the rise in obesity and diabetes at the same time) but also because the government started squeezing every penny out of the NHS, cutting the equipment maintenance budget as a way of cutting NHS funding whilst pretending they weren't etc.

The NHS capacity to deal with the problem is still quite impressive, but it's considerably less than if we hadn't just had a decade of the service being squeezed.

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