Will We Stand The Corona Test of Time? - Covid #7

[Cpl. Tunny]

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I agree with almost all of this.  Some red states have absolutely made a good account for themselves.  Gov DeWine in Ohio has gotten a lot of credit for acting quickly to address the threat.  But I also think that the states that are dragging their feet the worst have almost entirely Republican governors, and in statements they've made, they almost always echo Trump's talking points about avoiding economic disruption and not seeing this as a huge problem yet. 

I have only limited evidence on whether that filters down the local/individual level.  But there are polls showing that Republicans are still not taking COVID as seriously as Democrats/independents (although that gap is closing since Trump finally did his reversal).  And the social distancing metric I linked to a couple days ago showed most of the states where people had reduced their travel the least were also "red" states, although that dataset isn't perfect, nor perfectly correlated. 

Yes. And, Maithenet is as not trying to fight/argue with you. WV gets a bad rap for so many reasons. I might have gotten a bit defensive, I'm sorry. 

Yes, I get your point totally. From what ive seen, almost all Trump supporters do not take this seriously. He has them brainwashed and Fox News leaves out all of his idiotic statements, which is why they think he is responding just perfect to thia situation. 

Let's all be grateful for Dr. Fauci. He has corrected Trump's statement moments after Trump has spewed his lies on these updated from the WH. It's fascinating. I love the time when Trump referred to a "Deep State", and Fauci basically smacked his forehead when he made the statement. 

I understand your original point. I do. But, I just had to come to the defense of my state. I'm 100% sure that it wasn't Justice's choice to do what he did, when he did. I'm sure a much smarter person made the choice and forced his hand. Thank god for whoever that was.

Anyhow. I wish everyone on this board the best. Stay home. Stops the spread of this. And, we'll come back stronger than ever. Wether in months or a year or two. And, if Trump would be re-elected, I'm giving up on those I know who would vote for him. Im to the point that even speaking to these people is not even an option for me anymore. The level of ignorance they display...is something I cant wrap my head around.

[Zorral]

well, Jim Jones is now saying federal aid is dependent on opening for business again at Easter, and it will be looked at state by state and county by county.  Great way to get rid of Dem voters.  Plus he out a 20 million dollar bounty on the head of Venezuala's president because narco traffiking.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

33 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Kind of just coming to an end. I think Feb and March are probably the biggest tourism months. China is a huge source of tourists for us so the tourism sector has been operating on significantly reduced numbers since January. And of course earlier in March we closed our borders to all non-citizen / permanent resident arrivals so tourism ground to a total halt a few weeks back.

Interesting. I would have guessed it started a bit earlier than that, and that maybe one factor was getting it out of the way before people in your region got hit, but that's not entirely the case. 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Interesting. I would have guessed it started a bit earlier than that, and that maybe one factor was getting it out of the way before people in your region got hit, but that's not entirely the case. 

It definitely starts before Christmas, but Feb/March is the peak of the peak. School keeps going here until just before Christmas, so tourists coming here to see family / friends will normally come January when all schools are on summer break so there is a lot of domestic tourism in January. But visitors who want to avoid a bunch of annoying school kids cramping their holiday will wait until Feb when kids are back in school. Cruise ships are mostly doing the rounds in from Feb onwards. But there's always Cruise ship traffic even in winter.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

25 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It definitely starts before Christmas, but Feb/March is the peak of the peak. School keeps going here until just before Christmas, so tourists coming here to see family / friends will normally come January when all schools are on summer break so there is a lot of domestic tourism in January. But visitors who want to avoid a bunch of annoying school kids cramping their holiday will wait until Feb when kids are back in school. Cruise ships are mostly doing the rounds in from Feb onwards. But there's always Cruise ship traffic even in winter.

 

I guess that makes my theory a bit more plausible. Maybe tourism fell sharply along with a crackdown in China, and that the tourists who did come from there did so before the infection could take its toll. And given that you guys are rather remote, it just never got a chance to get to you before your government took action. I don't know anything about your healthcare system, but I have a hard time believing that alone is what to point to. 

[karaddin]

They also have a young woman as PM who has to be far more competent than most of the men around her to remain in her position, and who is also pretty good at showing and having compassion. She has had a very different response to this crisis than our Australian Evangelical PM has shown to this (and to the bush fires just a few months ago) who very much comes across like the rapture is proceeding as expected.

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I see the USA now has the most confirmed cases in the world for an individual country. Italy I imagine is still the leader on a per-capita basis. But USA being #1 in absolute number of cases is not a nice place to be.

Poor San Marino have the highest per-capita cases followed by a few other small countries. Out of those with over 10000 cases Switzerland are slightly ahead of Italy per capita while Spain are close behind.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, williamjm said:

Poor San Marino have the highest per-capita cases followed by a few other small countries. Out of those with over 10000 cases Switzerland are slightly ahead of Italy per capita while Spain are close behind.

And who said Switzerland liked to stay out of global catastrophes? 

[Fragile Bird]

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And who said Switzerland liked to stay out of global catastrophes? 

Note the very low death rate.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Note the very low death rate.

Probably because that's where the rich stash their ventilators. 

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I guess that makes my theory a bit more plausible. Maybe tourism fell sharply along with a crackdown in China, and that the tourists who did come from there did so before the infection could take its toll. And given that you guys are rather remote, it just never got a chance to get to you before your government took action. I don't know anything about your healthcare system, but I have a hard time believing that alone is what to point to. 

It's got nothing to do with the healthcare system, the course of the disease has nothing to do with any healthcare system, because the healthcare system is just the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff. What influences the course of the epidemic within any country are the "pre-healthcare" actions taken to limit the spread. Social distancing, social isolation etc.

We have been lucky (or the govt has been from a PR perspective) that almost all of the people that brought the disease into the country have been returning NZers, and interestingly none of these returning NZers have come from China. Our first couple of cases were people coming back from Iran, then Italy and more lately the USA (before the USA blew up officially) and the UK and other parts of Europe, and one Aussie. We closed out borders pro-actively to China and Korea but only reactively to Iran, Italy and the other risk countries. Being reactive to Iran I can sort of understand, because Iran was engaging in an even worse cover up than China. But the disease had blown up in Italy to an equal extent as China and Korea and we hadn't closed off our border to Italy. But as I said, lucky it's all been returning NZers who brought the disease in with just a couple of exceptions those from "non-ethnic countries"well after the disease had already arrived. So it meant the govt avoided being blamed for not closing borders soon enough (even though they didn't close borders soon enough), and it kept the mouths of racists and xenophobes shut, except in the early days when the racists were out there blaming NZ born and bred people of Chinese ethnicity.

This Evangelline Lilly situation is interesting, for only one reason: She said something like people are making too much of a fuss over a "respiratory 'flu". The thing is, yes this is basically a respiratory "'flu" (but in a totally different family of virus so not actually a 'flu at all). What people like her don't understand is that if not for the 'flu vaccine this is the sort of thing that would be happening almost every year, and it's only because we have been vaccinating the most vulnerable people for 'flu for decades that seasonal 'flu isn't having this effect every year (or most years), especially now with the world being so mobile. But even if we were experiencing 'flu infections like this every year, throwing this Coronavirus on top of uncontrolled seasonal 'flu would be throwing petrol onto a bonfire.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

11 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

This Evangelline Lilly situation is interesting, for only one reason: She said something like people are making too much of a fuss over a "respiratory 'flu". The thing is, yes this is basically a respiratory "'flu" (but in a totally different family of virus so not actually a 'flu at all). What people like her don't understand is that if not for the 'flu vaccine this is the sort of thing that would be happening almost every year, and it's only because we have been vaccinating the most vulnerable people for 'flu for decades that seasonal 'flu isn't having this effect every year (or most years), especially now with the world being so mobile. But even if we were experiencing 'flu infections like this every year, throwing this Coronavirus on top of uncontrolled seasonal 'flu would be throwing petrol onto a bonfire.

But you see, she has great cheek bones and pretty eyes, so it's all good, right? That's how modern society is supposed to work, after all. 

Or are you a Maoist? 

[Impmk2]

4 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It's a pity most countries in Europe and the USA (and probably Canada and Australia too) were caught a wee bit by surprise and already well into a community spread situation before significant social isolation measures were put in place.

3 hours ago, karaddin said:

They also have a young woman as PM who has to be far more competent than most of the men around her to remain in her position, and who is also pretty good at showing and having compassion. She has had a very different response to this crisis than our Australian Evangelical PM has shown to this (and to the bush fires just a few months ago) who very much comes across like the rapture is proceeding as expected.

Despite the somewhat lackluster response Australia actually doesn't look to be doing too badly at the moment. Testing is still happening pretty extensively, we're only getting 1-2% positive depending on where you live, daily increases have been in the steady ~400 range for the last 5 days rather than exponential, and still have a very very low death rate (though that's a lagging indicator). We only really started to lock down beginning of this week, so should start to see the effects of that in about another week or so too. Fingers crossed we dodged the bullet, though probably need to see how things go over the next couple weeks to know for sure.

My uni has just announced that it's shutting down to non-essential staff as at April 1. We're scrambling to see if our research is classed as essential. 

[Raja]

3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 What influences the course of the epidemic within any country are the "pre-healthcare" actions taken to limit the spread. Social distancing, social isolation etc. 

A strong public health system is something you need - it's the core of combating a pandemic, it isn't just individual responsibility when it comes to epidemics ( social distancing/ isolation), most public health systems are weak and underfunded because so much health expenditure is concentrated elsewhere.

How good is your contact tracing? How good is your notification system for notifiable disease? How quickly can you set up good isolation & central quarantine pathways? These are the things that matter. Can you set up a central quarantine system like they did in Wuhan with different pathways for people that are 1. Test Positive, 2. Suspected Cases ( with symptoms) 3. Have Fever 4. Close contacts with confirmed or suspected cases? - These are the public health actions that matter and unfortunately are complex and hard to get right if your health system isn't prepared for them ( Wuhan is fascinating given the changes in the R0 before and after centralized quarantine , getting it from 3 to 0.32 is impressive as fuck)

A strong public health system, with the right mixture of public health officials and government official with the power to enact change go a long way. Unfortunately, it is not something that most countries invest in, including the US where public health is left to state health departments with the CDC in an advisory role, which is why you see such a varied ( among states) and arguably disastrous response to Ebola and now SARS-Cov 2 in the US.

11 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Provided that we can get our hands on enough ventilators, trained staff, and PPE to allow them to work

Unfortunately, staffing is a big issue. Even before this crisis hit, there was a recognition amongst the government that their health service needs doctors ( I talk about doctors here as I'm familiar with that more than anything else) - and remember, this is a Tory govt recognizing this - in preparation for Brexit, the govt included all medical professionals in the 'shortage occupation list' for visas, making it much easier for people outside the EU to be hired as doctors in the NHS.

Now, the Tories being the Tories are going to try and make up that money by increasing the health surcharge that migrants, including doctors have to pay every year to access to NHS service to about 600 pounds per year in October this year (My visa application to the UK required me paying 1200 pounds for 3 years, and this is before application fees), but with EU doctors leaving because of Brexit, there has never been more of a shortage for staff at every level - and this is all before the epidemic. These staffing issues have existed for years and are especially worse in the winter, so the staffing issue is not a new thing, but is made even worse by the strain the NHS is under during the winter & during a pandemic like this one.

Which is why the General Medical Council put out a call for 15,000 doctors to come back and help with the NHS during the pandemic ( retired, people who gave up their license), in addition, doctors from surgical specialties are being asked to take on shifts to learn how to operate vents, pick up ICU shifts and help out with the epidemic. On top of that you add the lack of PPE & not testing front line NHS staff, and it's a nightmare.

[karaddin]

46 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Despite the somewhat lackluster response Australia actually doesn't look to be doing too badly at the moment. Testing is still happening pretty extensively, we're only getting 1-2% positive depending on where you live, daily increases have been in the steady ~400 range for the last 5 days rather than exponential, and still have a very very low death rate (though that's a lagging indicator). We only really started to lock down beginning of this week, so should start to see the effects of that in about another week or so too. Fingers crossed we dodged the bullet, though probably need to see how things go over the next couple weeks to know for sure.

My uni has just announced that it's shutting down to non-essential staff as at April 1. We're scrambling to see if our research is classed as essential. 

Yeah my criticism in this case was specifically aimed at the leadership of the PM/Government and their failure to inspire confidence and trust, or eve to communicate a clear message about what they are actually doing. Announcing that only essential businesses will be allowed to continue, but then undermining his own announcement by making a political statement about how "everyone with a job is essential" or whatever it was.

Not criticising our health authorities and their handling of things.

[Toth]

Day 12 of the lockdown.

Have I mentioned that my mother is a person solely driven by fear and has been for the last 8 years?

It should come to nobody's surprise that she at some point stopped ignoring me and pretended her pointless anger at me never happened because she remembered she still needed someone to rant to. Things therefore have been quite normal for the last few days and I successfully managed to finish almost all my work. Yesterday I then intended to spend the whole day finishing correcting my last exams to get this off the table, but the desk was blocked by my mother going utterly Corona crazy and I was unable to do anything at all.

The reason is that our supplies of fresh food are running out since we weren't outside since Monday last week and she is affected by watching Corona-related talkshows all day every day since then. She is now too scared to go out and when I offer to do the groceries as usual she snaps at me for being an idiot since I am apparently even more at risk in her mind and she forbids me to go out. Instead she spent the whole day, the whole day, trying to figure out how to order food at the supermarket online (despite their stock looking miserable and expensive and the delivery dates being booked out for the next three months), but cowering in fear at every step ("Why do they want my telephone number? There is something fishy about this! Have I been hacked?"). In the end she didn't order anything, but today demanded that I sign up for it and order something instead after we had just another argument about me going out to buy shit.

[RhaenysBee]

Oh come on. We have a “partial” lockdown. A partial lockdown. Which cancels out every necessary action I would have liked to take to prepare for the upcoming weeks and my sister’s traveling to the city for an online exam. But it allows people to see a manicurist.  I mean I get that we are trying to support these businesses but without the intention of offending anybody, aren’t manicures the least important thing in the world right now? 

 

[BigFatCoward]

39 minutes ago, Toth said:

Day 12 of the lockdown.

Have I mentioned that my mother is a person solely driven by fear and has been for the last 8 years?

It should come to nobody's surprise that she at some point stopped ignoring me and pretended her pointless anger at me never happened because she remembered she still needed someone to rant to. Things therefore have been quite normal for the last few days and I successfully managed to finish almost all my work. Yesterday I then intended to spend the whole day finishing correcting my last exams to get this off the table, but the desk was blocked by my mother going utterly Corona crazy and I was unable to do anything at all.

The reason is that our supplies of fresh food are running out since we weren't outside since Monday last week and she is affected by watching Corona-related talkshows all day every day since then. She is now too scared to go out and when I offer to do the groceries as usual she snaps at me for being an idiot since I am apparently even more at risk in her mind and she forbids me to go out. Instead she spent the whole day, the whole day, trying to figure out how to order food at the supermarket online (despite their stock looking miserable and expensive and the delivery dates being booked out for the next three months), but cowering in fear at every step ("Why do they want my telephone number? There is something fishy about this! Have I been hacked?"). In the end she didn't order anything, but today demanded that I sign up for it and order something instead after we had just another argument about me going out to buy shit.

Why don't you just ignore her and go out and do the shopping?

[Loge]

21 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

Oh come on. We have a “partial” lockdown. A partial lockdown. Which cancels out every necessary action I would have liked to take to prepare for the upcoming weeks and my sister’s traveling to the city for an online exam. But it allows people to see a manicurist.  I mean I get that we are trying to support these businesses but without the intention of offending anybody, aren’t manicures the least important thing in the world right now? 

 

That varies by country or state. I'm fairly sure manicurists are shut down here. Hairdressers too. Grocery stores are still open, though. Handling those shopping carts is a bit scary, though. People don't always keep distance either. Still, you can't avoid them for weeks, or months even. 

[Toth]

20 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Why don't you just ignore her and go out and do the shopping?

You see, that is my plan. But I fully expect to be reprimanded if I 'forget' to get anything she needs after she refuses to make a shopping list. And it is tough going out spontaneously when there is a person around constantly screeching that you are dooming you two to certain death if you go out.

Is anyone really surprised that I have grown up to become a person who needs several hours writing an E-Mail because I am damn near constantly worrying about how to phrase everything?