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Tywin Manderly

Will We Stand The Corona Test of Time? - Covid #7

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36 minutes ago, Arakan said:

Regarding CFR and unknown cases. 
Yes, there are a lot of unreported cases but from an analyst pov I do not believe those 5:1 or 7:1 figures. I think this is said to calm the general population (which makes sense). 
 

The two best sample sizes (though not perfect for sure) are the Diamond Princess and South Korea (due to the most systematic testing for 6 weeks already). 
 

As of 24.03

Diamond Princess: 712 infected/ 10 death (CFR: 1.4%)

South Korea: 9037 infected/120 death (CFR: 1.3%)

What many do not take into account: only the weakest die fast, many patients, especially the younger ones, are 2-4 weeks in intensive care. This is also what my cousin, who works as Internist at Munich central clinic told me. 

 

Some other things not taken into account: 

- There are still 5410 active cases in South Korea, and 115 active cases on Diamond Princess. It's unlikely that all of them will get survive, and additional deaths will affect the stats.

- South Korea and Japan are both wealthy countries with high-quality (and importantly, non-overwhelmed) health systems, which were fully focused on treating these cases. Other countries won't be that lucky.

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2 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Some other things not taken into account: 

- There are still 5410 active cases in South Korea, and 115 active cases on Diamond Princess. It's unlikely that all of them will get survive, and additional deaths will affect the stats.

- South Korea and Japan are both wealthy countries with high-quality (and importantly, non-overwhelmed) health systems, which were fully focused on treating these cases. Other countries won't be that lucky.

Indeed. As of this stage it is safe to expect a 1% CFR as best case scenario. As you said, C19 in most cases doesn’t give a quick death but it’s a weeks long fight. 

The percentage of young (20-40) and middle-aged (40-55) people among the death will just grow. Unavoidable. 
 

Furthermore it has to be repeated again and again and again. Age is not the primary or independent variable. It is health condition. Naturally the older you are the worse your general health condition. Simple correlation, not causation. Total media communication  fuck up (in the beginning). 

In the US alone there are roughly 30 million people classified as extremely obese (BMI > 35). Extreme obesity is considered as the most dangerous underlying health issue regarding C19. So far the sample sizes are too small but expect the worst. Expect a CFR > 30% among the infected extreme obese (if they get intensive care). This must be communicated everywhere! Trump is fucking irresponsible and I hope everyone sees he has blood on his hands. The same with that anti Malaria drug. It’s utterly unbelievable. 
 

American users: Trump is your Kaiser Wilhelm 2. 
 

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5 minutes ago, Tywin Manderly said:

Man dies after self-medicating with chloroquine phosphate to treat coronavirus

Here is one for the Darwin Awards! You can't make stuff like this up! People self-medicating with a cleaning agent! 

Sadly, trust in Trump is what caused this madness, and unfortunately trusting him seems to correlate to poorly developed cognitive skills. I feel very sorry for him and his wife -- you could hear how shattered she was by this.

He's a menace, and he wants to lead allow of people down a very dangerous route.

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5 minutes ago, Ran said:

Sadly, trust in Trump is what caused this madness, and unfortunately trusting him seems to correlate to poorly developed cognitive skills. I feel very sorry for him and his wife -- you could hear how shattered she was by this.

He's a menace, and he wants to lead allow of people down a very dangerous route.

Ran, I think from a Personal character pov Trump is not better than Stalin, Hitler, Mao. The only difference is he doesn’t wield the same personal power as those monsters thanks to the American constitution. 
 

But even then...his sycophants are already preparing the nation for some kind of „genocide“ among the old, the weak and vulnerable. Utterly despicable. Fox News is Goebbels 21st Century wet dream. And I am not dramatizing. 

Edited by Arakan

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In a bit of good news, the local used bookstore near me is doing absolutely gangbusters right now. They had a tweet about a customer who emailed the owner asking if they could get a mystery grab bag of books for $100 which went viral; and so now they've gotten swamped with emails from other people to doing the same. 

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Cuomo saying right now that cases in NY are accelerating faster than anticipated, and that the state will need to more than double it's hospital beds in the before the apex arrives in somewhere between 2-3 weeks.  Says that we are not yet seeing any flattening of the curve, reiterated need to maintain social distancing and stay home.

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15 hours ago, williamjm said:

I know it hasn't been the term used much in the media coverage but this (SARS-CoV-2 ) is the official name of the virus, Covid-19 is the name of the disease it causes. 

Similarly SARS wasn't the virus, it was the name of the disease caused by the virus. The actual name of the virus? SARS-CoV,

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17 minutes ago, Fez said:

In a bit of good news, the local used bookstore near me is doing absolutely gangbusters right now. They had a tweet about a customer who emailed the owner asking if they could get a mystery grab bag of books for $100 which went viral; and so now they've gotten swamped with emails from other people to doing the same. 

As I can no longer work with patients, and because the buys work is quickly drying up, I expect to be home soon too, especially if Minnesota goes under quarantine. One of the up sides is I have like a dozen books sitting out on my work desk and bedside table. Could bang them all out in two months while studying for the GRE and LSAT.

Small victories?

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18 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Cuomo saying right now that cases in NY are accelerating faster than anticipated, and that the state will need to more than double it's hospital beds in the before the apex arrives in somewhere between 2-3 weeks.  Says that we are not yet seeing any flattening of the curve, reiterated need to maintain social distancing and stay home.

I've been listening.   That news sounds horrible in that it sounds like the US is totally failing to flatten the curve.

But damn is it no refreshing to hear a leader who seems completely on top of the details.  I feel like Cuomo is our President.  Would that he actually were.  

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8 minutes ago, Zorral said:

 

 

Rightwing neoliberal capitalism is dead. Social market capitalism (make money but never forget your responsibility for the community or else we will remind you with laws capitalism) is the only viable form of market economy. Maybe it’s my German cultural bias but I despise the American capitalism. It’s built on predestination theory (you are poor? Well you are a bad person and god doesn’t love you as much as he loves me). You see the worst version right now. 

Edited by Arakan

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12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

As I can no longer work with patients, and because the buys work is quickly drying up, I expect to be home soon too, especially if Minnesota goes under quarantine. One of the up sides is I have like a dozen books sitting out on my work desk and bedside table. Could bang them all out in two months while studying for the GRE and LSAT.

Small victories?

You....you...you want to come over to the dark side?

:devil:

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13 minutes ago, Zorral said:

 

 

We do not have a button out of our four options that is adequate for this.  

Does Lt. Governor mean that he's Abbott's #2?   

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20 hours ago, Consigliere said:

The number of cases in South Africa has jumped from 61 to 402 over the past 8 days. The President has now declared a nationwide lockdown for 21 days effective from midnight 26 March to midnight 16 April. The national defence force has been mobilised to support the police service.

People will not be allowed to leave their homes except under strictly controlled circumstances such as to seek medical care, buy food, medicine and other supplies or collect a social grant. All shops and businesses will be closed except for pharmacies, laboratories, banks, essential financial and payment services, including the JSE, supermarkets, petrol stations and health care providers.

The categories of people who will be exempted from the lockdown: health workers, emergency personnel, those in security services – such as the police, traffic officers, military medical personnel, soldiers – and other persons necessary for the response to the pandemic including those involved in the production, distribution and supply of food and basic goods, essential banking services, the maintenance of power, water and telecommunications services, laboratory services, and the provision of medical and hygiene products. A full list of essential personnel will be published soon. 

Regulations have been put in place to prohibit unjustified price hikes as well as to prevent people from panic buying. The president has also reiterated that any attempts to profiteer from this crisis will not be tolerated. Special units of the National Prosecuting Authority have been put together to act immediately and arrest those who are found to be doing this. The judiciary has also been asked to expedite cases against those implicated. 

Same measures announced in Canada this morning.

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27 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

You....you...you want to come over to the dark side?

:devil:

Sadly I let my old score expire. Scored between the 85th and 90th percentile, but I was really mad at myself for screwing up one section while acing the others (I was aces at logic games, I rarely even needed to right write anything out, it’s those damn scientific reading sections that kill me). Combine that with a 3.9 GPA with top honors and I could have probably gotten into a lot of good schools. I randomly called the University of Hawaii’s law school to see if I could get a full ride. Could of. How different life might have been….  

Edited by Tywin et al.

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sadly I let my old score expire. Scored between the 85th and 90th percentile, but I was really mad at myself for screwing up one section while acing the others (I was aces at logic games, I rarely even needed to right anything out, it’s those damn scientific reading sections that kill me). Combine that with a 3.9 GPA with top honors and I could have probably gotten into a lot of good schools. I randomly called the University of Hawaii’s law school to see if I could get a full ride. Could of. How different life might have been….  

Look at the bright side of thngs. If you do go forward your work experience will make you a far better lawyer than some smart ass preppie little bastard with brains and no bedside manner.

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and if you grover dill with some federalist society greasers in law school, maybe trump will appoint you to supreme court during his fifth term in office.

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