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Tywin Manderly

Will We Stand The Corona Test of Time? - Covid #7

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19 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Ugh, so true. Is there anything more irritating than a collective which turns its back on human divinity to make wishes at a cloud?

Much easier to bear an unanswered prayer and cite unknowable justifications on behalf of a distant nonhuman entity than to accept having failed oneself.

Truth be told, this forum has actually soften my distaste of the deeply religious, and at the same time has served as a useful way of highlight the frauds that lead most of these movements. Some are good people though, like Rev. William Barber.

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

I want to correct a previous poster. This is what we'll look like in six months (albeit hopefully with better hairlines):
 

 

Not me! My eyebrows are perfect and tattooed on my head and I am patting myself on the back pretty hard for that decision.

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Ran said:

I'd say it's safe to say that most governors will not adhere to this

Ha. Mississippi?  Even NY?  Where the Hassids are still dancing in the public spaces in large numbers in NY, NJ and Miami Beach? (Just the ones I know about due to Jewish friends who live in these areas.) The cops have long been paid off by these communities and now the cops are terrified of going among them because, you know, the virus.

Death Cult = Jim Jones is running the nation.

Edited by Zorral

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Truth be told, this forum has actually soften my distaste of the deeply religious, and at the same time has served as a useful way of highlight the frauds that lead most of these movements. Some are good people though, like Rev. William Barber.

I don't hate religious folks, but I speak truthfully when  I say their refusal to acknowledge the godliness of homosapien irritates. 

So much more could be achieved, and at such little comparative expense to the crimes of the great religious institutions. Spirituality is a natural rationalizing process for the species, but it is the species that achieved this capability for complex and contradictory thinking. Not some invisible hand of a far off deity, creating flawed likenesses of itself.

The songs and congregations and ponderous interpretations of the religious texts are all to the better of the individual, I think. But woefully, sadly, horrifically misguided. Excoriation of self is often productive, however to recast personal guilt or failings as a tragic predetermined fate is counterproductive.

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20 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I don't hate religious folks, but I speak truthfully when  I say their refusal to acknowledge the godliness of homosapien irritates. 

So much more could be achieved, and at such little comparative expense to the crimes of the great religious institutions. Spirituality is a natural rationalizing process for the species, but it is the species that achieved this capability for complex and contradictory thinking. Not some invisible hand of a far off deity, creating flawed likenesses of itself.

The songs and congregations and ponderous interpretations of the religious texts are all to the better of the individual, I think. But woefully, sadly, horrifically misguided. Excoriation of self is often productive, however to recast personal guilt or failings as a tragic predetermined fate is counterproductive.

I agree, but I tend to just like to start at "so you really think monotheism makes more sense than polytheism?" 

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Was it yesterday or the day before yesterday the US had more than 100 deaths?

The number on Worldometers right now is 222.

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4 hours ago, Ran said:

How are data visualization sites working for people in various countries? A group of IT guys put together one for Sweden, C19.se, which is honestly super-impressive in how clearly data is laid out, down to region-level. It's in Swedish, but you can probably figure out what "Dödsfall" and "Intesivvärd" are, which by process of elimination tells you what "Smittad" means. 

Dödsfall - pronounced something like "derdsfall"? Seems close enough to understand a common ancestry with death, but the fall part makes it sound more eventful.

Intesivvärd - intensive ward, ie cases that have gone to ICU seems to have pretty clear linguistic roots

Smittad - obviously the infected category by elimination, guessing the linguistic history is not to infection though but "smitted" as in "transmitted"? English has only retained it as the process of passing it on and I'd never stopped to think of how it breaks down like this.

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Italy has been on tightened Lockdown for the last 5 days. Again the waiting game now. They shut down all non-essential business and factories. People are not allowed to leave their community area. 

Let’s hope it does work to suppress the spread. Otherwise the only other significant option is to go the Wuhan route. Absolutely no idea if this is feasible at all in a Western Europe country. The „problem“ is the lacking self-discipline of the average person in the West, which in turn means you need draconian fines and punishments to enforce it. 
 

Anyway the Italian and Spanish economies are lost. Forget about tourism this year. Greece was 10 million people. Spain and Italy are 110 million. Tough and hard times coming for all of us. No other bullshit BAU Trump spinning possible. 

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4 hours ago, karaddin said:

Smittad - obviously the infected category by elimination, guessing the linguistic history is not to infection though but "smitted" as in "transmitted"? English has only retained it as the process of passing it on and I'd never stopped to think of how it breaks down like this.

I think smittad is equal to smitten (hit by), while transmitted comes from trans-mission and is of latin origin.  I'm surprised that swedish seems closer to english than to german.

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Are there statistics somewhere about the age/health condition of those who had to be hospitalized because of covid 19? (not just the death)

 

(I'm trying to convince some people that even if you are young and healthy covid is still dangerous for you )

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, karaddin said:

Dödsfall - pronounced something like "derdsfall"?

Yep!

Quote

Smittad - obviously the infected category by elimination, guessing the linguistic history is not to infection though but "smitted" as in "transmitted"? English has only retained it as the process of passing it on and I'd never stopped to think of how it breaks down like this.

So, this led me down a rabbit's hole. Transmitted is latinate -- trans + mittere (across + send) -- but from what I can find smittad comes from Germanic, originally meaning "blemished" with possibly the sense of smeared (there's a notion it meant throwing mud at first), and indeed the words smite and smitten in English are linguistic relations to Swedish smittad. My only uncertainty is whether it's possible the Latin mittere and the cognate of smite/smittad are themselves related further back in time. Very old etymological texts assume the connection, while I found a book online which suggests those efforts were uncertain and then apparently proposes a radical reinterpretation, namely that smite and mittere are of Semitic origin by way of European contacts with Carthage(!) I can't speak to how linguistically sound this is...

But anyways, yeah. That's smittad!

Edited by Ran

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6 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Was it yesterday or the day before yesterday the US had more than 100 deaths?

The number on Worldometers right now is 222.

I’ve been questioning how accurate worldometer is for some weeks. It always says completely different things than other sources I consider reliable. Does anybody know what sources they use? 

1 hour ago, Arakan said:

Italy has been on tightened Lockdown for the last 5 days. Again the waiting game now. They shut down all non-essential business and factories. People are not allowed to leave their community area. 

Let’s hope it does work to suppress the spread. Otherwise the only other significant option is to go the Wuhan route. Absolutely no idea if this is feasible at all in a Western Europe country. The „problem“ is the lacking self-discipline of the average person in the West, which in turn means you need draconian fines and punishments to enforce it. 
 

Anyway the Italian and Spanish economies are lost. Forget about tourism this year. Greece was 10 million people. Spain and Italy are 110 million. Tough and hard times coming for all of us. No other bullshit BAU Trump spinning possible. 

Our news said that yesterday was the first day Italy counted fewer new infected than the day before. Could this be accurate information? 

What exactly do you mean by the Wuhan route? As for self-discipline, neither self- nor any other type of discipline exists in Europe, if I may say so as a European. I hope the time is not now, but when it is, that’s exactly what will be the end of us. Complete lack of discipline and respect for things greater than our momentary interest and craving. No offense to any other Europeans who might feel differently about the subject, I merely draw conclusions from my social circle and limited knowledge of European national cultures. 

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5 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

I’ve been questioning how accurate worldometer is for some weeks. It always says completely different things than other sources I consider reliable. Does anybody know what sources they use? 

Our news said that yesterday was the first day Italy counted fewer new infected than the day before. Could this be accurate information? 

What exactly do you mean by the Wuhan route? As for self-discipline, neither self- nor any other type of discipline exists in Europe, if I may say so as a European. I hope the time is not now, but when it is, that’s exactly what will be the end of us. Complete lack of discipline and respect for things greater than our momentary interest and craving. No offense to any other Europeans who might feel differently about the subject, I merely draw conclusions from my social circle and limited knowledge of European national cultures. 

Wuhan Route: mandatory isolation in apartments / houses. Leaving allowed for one person every second or third day to buy essential stuff at exactly defined checkpoints. Then back to the apartment. No leaving the apartment for work except you are fundamentally essential (doctors, nurses, security etc.).  
 

We are nowhere near those measures in Europe. The Korean route is not possible for us at this stage. Maybe later when the rate of new infections is „under control“. 
 

forget the daily new cases statistics. Useless everywhere in Europe. No systematic testing is done, no systematic reporting. I only look at the cumulative development over a certain period (3-5 days) as of now. 

In Germany we had the situation of short-term optimism because „the cases went down“ on Saturday. Not all regional CDCs have reported them to the central organ. Simple as that  :))). Useless figures. 

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11 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

I’ve been questioning how accurate worldometer is for some weeks. It always says completely different things than other sources I consider reliable. Does anybody know what sources they use? 

They list sources here. I presume the issue is that there are uneven update speeds across sources and that they may be relying on global organizations who are receiving their own data from other parties so that adds to lag.

 

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Regarding self-discipline: for this to work there must be community sense, solidarity sense, a sense of „I am not the king / queen of the world“, I am just a part of something bigger. 
 

individualism is good and nice but sorry, not sorry. What we see in the West, be it Europe or the US, is selfishness, egoism masked as „individual freedom“. Social Media didn’t help. So many people just center around themselves, we all speak of rights and freedoms. Let’s talk about responsibilities. 
this Development has been going on for the last 30 years. But it’s another topic. Nevertheless it all connects. 
 

The new left is bullshit in many ways. Entitlement, me me me, outrage culture about luxury Problems. 
 

What about solidarity? 
We talk so much about gender politics, how many genders there are. Yes this is important. But let’s also talk about the fact that 3 million children in a rich country like Germany live below the poverty line. My point: we lost perspective. And now we see the result. 
 

How can it be that a super rich country like the UK has only 6.6 ICU per 100k capita (Germany: 29, Austria 21)? This must not be possible! The left has totally lost perspective. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Arakan said:

The new left is bullshit in many ways. Entitlement, me me me, outrage culture about luxury Problems. 

Other people's problems often strike us as 'luxury problems', but this sits particularly ill in a post calling for solidarity and not individualism. If your unity means telling minorities to STFU because you've decided their issues don't matter, it's not actually unity at all - it's a demand that other people do as you say.

Edited by mormont

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Posted (edited)

Something I hear a lot from people in the U.S. who complain about the actions being used to stop the spread of the disease is that "only 'X' amount of people have died! 'Y' amount die from car crashes every year. Why are we wrecking the economy over this when more people die from other things like car crashes?"

1) No shit there aren't that many deaths yet. It's a new disease. The whole point of this is to keep deaths as low as possible. That's why they're called, "preventive measures". You know. To prevent the worst from happening.

and

2) How many deaths would these people like to reach before they think these measures should be started? 1,000, 10,000, 50,000? At what point do they go, "whoops, lots of people are dying. Better start some of that social distancing the rest of the world is doing"?

Edited by A True Kaniggit

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4 minutes ago, Arakan said:

How can it be that a super rich country like the UK has only 6.6 ICU per 100k capita (Germany: 29, Austria 21)? This must not be possible! The left has totally lost perspective. 

Germany and Austria are unusual. Other wealthy countries like Norway and Switzerland have half, or less than half, of that. Yet, they don't have worse health outcomes over time. Sweden, with Portugal, has the lowest ICU bed count per capita, and again, the health outcomes for the population are pretty good.

Is it the case that Germany and Austria over-provide for intensive care out of an abundance of caution, and countries like Sweden under-provide? Maybe, maybe not, I can't really provide any discussion (in English) as to why Germany is so high up there compared to the rest of the OECD. The resources not used up by ICU units are devoted elsewhere in the health care system, though, in other countries.

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12 minutes ago, mormont said:

Other people's problems often strike us as 'luxury problems', but this sits particularly ill in a post calling for solidarity and not individualism. If your unity means telling minorities to STFU because you've decided their issues don't matter, it's not actually unity at all - it's a demand that other people do as you say.

No. You did not understand. Not at all. It’s about perspective. I will not speak for other countries but I think it’s a fucking much bigger problem that 3 million children in Germany live in poverty than making sure that every job description now has (m/f/d). Also important. Yes. But some topics get huge media attention, others not at all. Perspective, balance. As I said the new left is in many ways just as self-centered as the right. But OT. 

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3 minutes ago, Ran said:

Germany and Austria are unusual. Other wealthy countries like Norway and Switzerland have half, or less than half, of that. Yet, they don't have worse health outcomes over time. Sweden, with Portugal, has the lowest ICU bed count per capita, and again, the health outcomes for the population are pretty good.

Is it the case that Germany and Austria over-provide for intensive care out of an abundance of caution, and countries like Sweden under-provide? Maybe, maybe not, I can't really provide any discussion (in English) as to why Germany is so high up there compared to the rest of the OECD. The resources not used up by ICU units are devoted elsewhere in the health care system, though, in other countries.

Well Austria is an outlier. And I think it’s hard to compare smaller and bigger countries. Scandinavia for sure is well situated due to never losing the „social spirit“ in politics. But the big countries? I think the US has the same amount of intensive care per capita as Germany but there I guess it’s a matter of money / private health insurance costs. 
 

maybe the high amount of Germany is a leftover of the Cold War. The statistics I read is this (ICU/100k)

GER 29 FRA/SPA 12 ITA 10 UK 6.6

No reason for the UK to not be on per with France or Spain except rightwing neoliberal politics. 

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