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Tywin Manderly

Will We Stand The Corona Test of Time? - Covid #7

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You'd hope that after their tepid response, Trump and Bolsonaro will be unelectable for life after this.

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Depressing story here that I didn't even think about...

Quote

 

When Capt. Nilesh Gandhi’s oil tanker docked in coronavirus-ravaged China early last month, he understood that he would not be able to disembark and fly home as planned. He would have to keep working, at least until Singapore.

But when he arrived there, Singapore had prohibited all crew changes. And when he docks in Sri Lanka next week, the government there will ban him from getting off the ship. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, his next two stops, forbid crew members from leaving, as well.

He is not alone. An estimated 150,000 crew members with expired work contracts have been forced into continued labor aboard commercial ships worldwide to meet the demands of governments that have closed their borders and yet still want fuel, food and supplies.

“We want to go home,” said Mr. Gandhi, 38, in a phone interview from aboard his ship.

His wife and son expected him home in Mumbai, India, more than a month ago. He said seven others — four Indians and three Filipinos — are similarly stranded on the ship. They are still being paid, but crew members say that, given the choice, they would have gladly declined the money and returned home.

 

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1 minute ago, Werthead said:

You'd hope that after their tepid response, Trump and Bolsonaro will be unelectable for life after this.

They should be put in prison. One can dream ;)  

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35 minutes ago, Arakan said:

I told my friends a few days ago, all this will result in some form of „Kriegswirtschaft“ (war economy) over the next 2/3 years. It’s unbelievable how stupid Trump and his fellows are to expect to go back to BAU come May. I don’t see it. Of course we will bounce back but it will be very difficult. And the cries to go back to some form of 17th/18th century mercantilism sure doesn’t help. Let’s see. 

One interesting situation: if New Zealand's lockdown succeeds in stamping out the virus here, but the rest of the world remains in the poo. A Fortress New Zealand situation - a rolling back of our entire economic framework to the Muldoon era (1975-1984) is not out of the question, as we try to disentangle ourselves from the global economy.

In all seriousness though, Grant Robertson (our Minister of Finance) could actually do worse than dust off Muldoon's old policy documents. 

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29 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The UK will apparently have a home testing kit for the virus available "within days." Allegedly it can detect antibodies so will identify recovered cases who didn't know they'd had the virus.

Interesting if accurate, but it sounds a bit too good to be true.

Indeed, strange to say it’s days away and also say that it needs testing to see if it works. I’m also interested how they keep a track of cases once home testing comes into play, do we have to register on a website if we’re positive? Surely the government still needs to know how many have it and where they are?

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I have maintained my essential status and gotten an unpaid promotion, lol.

Translation: We’re running out of crap to do.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Werthead said:

The UK will apparently have a home testing kit for the virus available "within days." Allegedly it can detect antibodies so will identify recovered cases who didn't know they'd had the virus.

Interesting if accurate, but it sounds a bit too good to be true.

Since the virus has been identified and sequenced for a couple months now, it's definitely possible that antibody based tests are close, but they need to be validated.  In this case, we would want the false positive rate, that is the number of people falsely identified as having gotten the virus, to be as low as possible.  For example, if infection with the 2003 SARS-CoV virus doesn't confer immunity to the 2019 SARS-CoV-2 virus, then it will be important for the assay to be able to distinguish between the two coronavirus strains.  That could be tricky.

Edited by Mudguard

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One positive. Finally managed to clean out the spare room of all the crap stored in there 18 months after moving in.

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A boss informed me that the hospital is going to try and meet Trump’s goal to fully reopen things by Easter.

We’re all going to die.  

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16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

A boss informed me that the hospital is going to try and meet Trump’s goal to fully reopen things by Easter.

We’re all going to die.  

WHAT.

I read a local news article saying Walz is announcing when we start Shelter in Place at 2:00 today. Hopefully that dashes any talk of business as usual by Easter.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I have maintained my essential status and gotten an unpaid promotion, lol.

Translation: We’re running out of crap to do.

You know it very well may be that the hospital is afraid of losing funding if they lay you off but they sure as shit ain't gonna pay ya to stay home!

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1 hour ago, Fury Resurrected said:

WHAT.

I read a local news article saying Walz is announcing when we start Shelter in Place at 2:00 today. Hopefully that dashes any talk of business as usual by Easter.

The smarter boss added a heavy caveat that this is more about having a target date for moral, but stupid main boss is a hard core Trump supporter even if she'll never admit it openly.

Old? Check.

White? Check

HS education only? Check.

Hates immigrants? Giant fucking check.
 

I really want to know how she was put in charge of an entire department, and she only has one boss in the building who can check her and she's never here. 

 

46 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

You know it very well may be that the hospital is afraid of losing funding if they lay you off but they sure as shit ain't gonna pay ya to stay home!

They're talking about working from home, which, to be clear, cannot work in any functional way. We need two computers to do the most minimal of work, and watching the demo on a laptop was hilarious. Plus side is I can make it look like I'm working for eight hours while only putting two hours of work in, but I kind of do that anyways. Oh well, at least then I can take regular smoke breaks and shotgun some beers.

America's healthcare, everyone....

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3 hours ago, Werthead said:

You'd hope that after their tepid response, Trump and Bolsonaro will be unelectable for life after this.

They should. However, populists always tend to always have a mass of followers regardless of what they do, and in Trump's case, he has in his favor the fact that basically 40% of the US votes Republican whoever is the candidate.  Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has on his side the fact that there's a huge chance the left will rally under a puppet of Lula again, rather than admit he's a shameless crook and move on to a more moderate figure. 

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4 hours ago, Arakan said:

So far no lockdown as far as I am aware but rumors of Moscow to be put under lockdown. Might be just rumors but wouldn’t be surprised to see swift action. 
 

Apparently today they announced a series of measures including a full week free of work, suspension of the referendum and other that I don't recall right now. I guess things are also getting serious. 

 

 

4 hours ago, Arakan said:

All this talk about herd immunity is utter bollocks and nothing more than the silent acknowledgment of failure. Plagues are not allowed to run its course, they are suppressed and contained. What South Korea is doing. What Singapore is doing. Hongkong, China etc. 

It‘s ridiculous. We still know so little about this virus. Many Experts simply underestimated it. I well remember the press briefings of our CDC (RKI) one month ago: low risk, everything under control. True death rate of that Virus somewhere between 0.4-0.7%, presumably 0.5%. Ridiculous. Back then there still was no clarity who are the risks groups etc. If a danger is unknown you act swiftly and decisively. No hindsight either. We saw the development in China and South Korea and the drastic measures. To visualize: China put a province the size of England and Wales combined with the population of Italy under lockdown. They put a City the size of London under strict quarantine. And they did it when they had 400 confirmed cases. All this happened 23.01.2020. We saw it. China is responsible for the wet markets and the origin of the Virus. WE are responsible for the situation now in our respective countries.  

Oh, I agree. China draconian containment measures gave us a month more or less. We continued as business as usual and let the virus spread. I don't exclude even some racist  "oh China,  so sad... let them die" attitude.

This article is laughable in retrospective

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-and-blindness-authoritarianism/606922/

 

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2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

A boss informed me that the hospital is going to try and meet Trump’s goal to fully reopen things by Easter.

We’re all going to die.  

You truly got an employer of horrors. :stunned:

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Posted (edited)

WaPo Article (limited clicks) on the spread of coronavirus in US by state.  It is looking at how the hardest hit states were initially all more urban states that voted for Clinton (Washington, California, New York).  New York is completely dwarfing all states (50% of all cases are in NY state, with only ~6% of the US population).  But the states with the fastest spread in the past week are states that voted for Trump:  Michigan, Missouri, West Virginia, Mississippi, and Arizona. 

In addition, it also compares the number of tests conducted with the number of positive tests, to see if this is just a function of states that test more get more positives.  Answer: no.  Missouri, Arizona and Mississippi for example, are below the national average in terms of how much they expanded testing this week, but they are still finding 10-27 times as many cases as they did a week ago.  That's bad. 

EDIT:  Note that many of the states with the fastest spread have not taken precautionary measures like closing bars and businesses (or if they did, they only did it in the past few days).  So there's every reason to expect that infections will spread dramatically in these areas in the next two weeks.  For example, businesses are still open in Arizona and BARS are still open in Missouri. 

Edited by Maithanet

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I now have a piece of paper confirming I’m a key worker in case I get stopped by police. On the plus side, my employer has now said they will reimburse us for car parking fees in order to get us off public transport.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Some further thoughts on a potential further drift towards economic autarky as a result of this crisis.

It will be interesting to see how that develops in general. You could already see a trend of deglobalization before this crisis, driven not only by increasing nationalism and geopolitical instability, but also by technological development.

In a world where energy increasingly will come from solar and wind power rather than oil, and factories are becoming increasingly robotized and hence not benefitting much from low wage labor, many of the economic benefits of globalization become substantially smaller. 

But this virus pandemic will probably put many of these forces into overdrive. 

Edited by Khaleesi did nothing wrong

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