Will We Stand The Corona Test of Time? - Covid #7

[williamjm]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I was chatting with a friend last night and he told me he saw some stories about Covid-19 actually being considered a version of SARs. Apparently there are researchers out there who are saying Covid-19 is actually a new an improved version of SARs.

I know it hasn't been the term used much in the media coverage but this (SARS-CoV-2 ) is the official name of the virus, Covid-19 is the name of the disease it causes.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Original Sun Chips are awful. What was my roommate thinking? Talk about desperate buying.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Wisconsin's Govenor Evers has ordered all non essential businesses shutdown, looks like a pretty similar measure to New York state's.

There will still be essential services for the obvious areas like the infrastructure grid, healthcare, utilities, banking and other necessary functions that need to keep running for people's basic needs like food, medicine, lights, electricity, law enforcement, etc.

[BigFatCoward]

My train to work is no quieter than yesterday, so either only essential workers were already coming into London, or people are still ignoring the conditions. 

[ants]

Melbourne from what I can see (I live in an apartment block where I can see the fringe of the CBD) looks pretty quiet.  

[The Marquis de Leech]

12 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Its times like these I'm glad I'm a chronic piss head. 

I combine fondness for alcohol with fondness for literature. I spent today on the sofa with three litres of cheap cask wine and a stack of unread books.

[Fragile Bird]

Last week I mentioned that 15,000 people attended a dentistry conference in Vancouver back in early March. So far 20 people in BC trace their infection to the conference and a similar number in other provinces. Now the first attendee has died, a dentist in BC. That didn’t take long.

[Werthead]

11 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Is this a U.K. specific comment? 

Yes.

[Werthead]

This article is optimistic, I feel, but for those looking for a good spin on events this may be mildly encouraging.

Essentially the argument is that it will not be necessary to have measures in place for 18 months or even six months, but based on the trends from China, South Korea and even Iran (which is surprising), it will be possible to get over the peak in a matter of weeks and then begin a slow recovery as China has done (going as far as easing the Wuhan lockdown today).

I am not convinced completely by the data, but the article has not taken into account the last 3 days in Italy, which has seen numbers of deaths decreasing for three days in a row. A smooth downturn is not expected, but if a general downward trend over time is identified, that would also be encouraging: Italy's health service has been pushed absolutely to breaking point but has not completely collapsed.

Note that the article author is clear that if this is happening, it is because the majority of people have been in total lockdown for weeks, obeying the restrictions and not spreading the virus, even without going to the insane lengths of China. China's much stricter measures may have limited the overall number of deaths severely, but even the looser and less effective steps taking in other countries should still pay off relatively quickly and before overloading the health services.

The author is also clear that there is a still a massive risk from a secondary infection boom which could be potentially more dangerous than the first outbreak (as in the Spanish Flu), as people are convinced the worst is over, resume business as normal and are slow to heed renewed warnings. That needs to be something that people are planning for and working on contingency plans.

A glimmer of good news for countries following the same path - Spain, France, the UK - but not helpful for the United States, which is still not in the nationwide lockdown it needs to be (individual states may follow the same path though).

[BigFatCoward]

Now that is a proper man of God

Italian priest who gave respirator away dies

An Italian priest who gave his respirator away to a younger patient he didn't know has died of the coronavirus.

Father Giuseppe Berardelli, 72, died in a hospital in Lovere, Bergamo - one of Italy's worst-hit cities.

The hospital said Father Berardelli's parishioners from the town of Casnigo had brought him a respirator, but he refused to use it, choosing instead to give it away.

Residents of Casnigo are reported to have applauded from their windows and balconies as his coffin was taken for burial. There was no funeral.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

And as any sane person could have predicted, the Olympics are postponed until 2021. The IOC really did their athletes a disservice by waiting so long, exposing them while they had to train in hopes the games could go on. 

[BigFatCoward]

I put my uniform on and went out walking for the first time in months, 3 mins out of the station i came across someone shoplifting/stockpiling about 10 trays of chewing gum, what an asshat.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

I put my uniform on and went out walking for the first time in months, 3 mins out of the station i came across someone shoplifting/stockpiling about 10 trays of chewing gum, what an asshat.

Again, club action?

[Ran]

3 more deaths today in Sweden, but they tend to trickle in through the day. Stockholm has still not seen the sure in cases that they had expected to begin this weekend, so that is positive. The government had tightened restrictions slightly by requiring restaurants and bars to serve only customers seated at tables. So no more people gathering at bars.

So far it seems like they feel that the increase in cases remains at a manageable rate.

[Arakan]

Regarding CFR and unknown cases. 
Yes, there are a lot of unreported cases but from an analyst pov I do not believe those 5:1 or 7:1 figures. I think this is said to calm the general population (which makes sense). 
 

The two best sample sizes (though not perfect for sure) are the Diamond Princess and South Korea (due to the most systematic testing for 6 weeks already). 
 

As of 24.03

Diamond Princess: 712 infected/ 10 death (CFR: 1.4%)

South Korea: 9037 infected/120 death (CFR: 1.3%)

What many do not take into account: only the weakest die fast, many patients, especially the younger ones, are 2-4 weeks in intensive care. This is also what my cousin, who works as Internist at Munich central clinic told me. 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Also not discussed enough, while most people will survive this, some of the long term health problems are worse than you might think, especially if you require a ventilator. Many people will develop life long respiratory issues as a result of this outbreak.

[Arakan]

And regarding that comment of the Texan vice-governor. This is even more despicable than Stalin or Mao. „Sacrificing for the greater good“. Unbelievable. Which greater good? It’s for selfish reasons only. Because hey when a man with 10 millions loses 5 of that, you know that’s really really bad. Better to let some people die...disgraceful and despicable. Especially when that politician himself will get the best medical treatment money can buy. 

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Note that the article author is clear that if this is happening, it is because the majority of people have been in total lockdown for weeks, obeying the restrictions and not spreading the virus, even without going to the insane lengths of China. China's much stricter measures may have limited the overall number of deaths severely, but even the looser and less effective steps taking in other countries should still pay off relatively quickly and before overloading the health services.

But here! 

Awake to the official declaration from Them, which we knew they believed all along, but are now pushing in public including the Fnoose, that the old must die for the sake of the economy. As I'd been hearing, there is no federal manufacturing act action because big biz doesn't want it. They're going full bore indoctrination of the base on this.

This is Capitalism in it's most distilled purity. It is literally powered by blood.

No more shut downs and closures! Reopen everything! and the markets will recover and we old rich people will be fine -- and REELECTED + we get all that stuff that the old people had like Social Security funds -- which are also a drag on the economy.

Letting old people die doesn’t mean US OLD PEOPLE. WE ARE THE ECONOMY. But wait – isn't this noplanplan for the sake of the economy? If You Fat Old Rich People are The Economy, you literally believe every one else deserves to die for your wealth.

Surely all old people are willing to sacrifice themselves for their grandchildren. I wonder if sis, who is so gratified that her children and grandchildren love her so much, thinks her children and grandchildren are willing to let her die now for the sake of future wealth for the wealthy? Wouldn't that be a kick in the head, as they like to say out there?

This straight up Death Cult.

OTOH, YOU may be willing to die for YOUR grandchildren, but not for THEIR grandchildren.

I sure as hell am not willing to die for THEIR grandchildren. If anything this might be exactly what tempers OUR will to live.

This is the thinking that could well lead in another couple weeks pushing to see anyone over 55, 60, 70, rounded up for the gas chambers, because that’s a lot quicker and efficient and that will get the markets booming again all that much faster. Baby Steps.  First They came for . . .

Every day we wake up to Worse.

[Arakan]

I think a lot of people know it already. Also the intelligent Republicans in the US (see that good article in Foreign Affairs). The C19 pandemic is a game changing moment in world history (28.06.1914 comes to mind). The US under leader Trump lost the plot and the lasting damage they are doing to the US reputation is unbelievable. The whole world is witness and can listen to the bullshit Trump and that ridiculous Fox News channel is spouting. 
They can talk all day about the Chinese Virus, the foreign Virus, the CCP Virus. Whatever. Words are wind. Action matters. And right now China is sending medical aid, equipment, personell to Italy, Iran, Turkey, Serbia, Spain, Africa etc. 

And the world can see that the Trump administration is too stupid to deal with anything. 
 

There is an old psychological truism. In the end, every person with narcissistic personality disorder will totally fuck up. Just a matter of time. Trump‘s time is now. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Expected plus side. Freeways are wide open. Speedy speedy.