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Tywin Manderly

UK Politics: Life in the Johnsonian Dystopia

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Liffguard said:

I question the presumption that this is something he should want to do.

 

I might have misphrased a little, but what I'm basically meaning is that he cannot leave open the angles of attack that the press has on Corbyn - he doesn't have to be their friend but he needs not to be their constant punching bag. This isn't something I want to be true but it's something that is true - he isn't going to get anything done if the media establishment decide what he's saying isn't worth hearing.

And that's what I mean by the balance he needs to find. He's the labour leader so he shouldn't just leap to the center but he needs certain people to at least think there's something Blair-ish (without the war crimes) about him while also convincing the left that he isn't Blair. It's a tough tightrope.

And yes, I know that Blair himself is a poison name nowadays, but hopefully you get what I'm saying by that.

Edited by polishgenius

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Well he's unlikely to get Murdoch on board anyway, given that he opened the phone hacking investigation that got the News of the World closed down, haha!

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1 hour ago, polishgenius said:

I might have misphrased a little, but what I'm basically meaning is that he cannot leave open the angles of attack that the press has on Corbyn - he doesn't have to be their friend but he needs not to be their constant punching bag. This isn't something I want to be true but it's something that is true - he isn't going to get anything done if the media establishment decide what he's saying isn't worth hearing.

Agreed. With Corbyn, you always got the impression that he was surprised that most of the press were hostile. He then seemed to think that all he needed to do was to complain about how unfair it was to magically make them stop. Any competent Labour leader needs to expect it and have a plan to deal with it as far as possible.

As for Starmer, I think that his main problem unifying Labour is going to be a constant barrage of unhelpful comment from Corbyn. I see the Corbyn has already "pledged to work with Starmer" (my emphasis), while telling him that he must not work too closely with the Tories to end the current epidemic.

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4 hours ago, polishgenius said:

I might have misphrased a little, but what I'm basically meaning is that he cannot leave open the angles of attack that the press has on Corbyn - he doesn't have to be their friend but he needs not to be their constant punching bag. This isn't something I want to be true but it's something that is true - he isn't going to get anything done if the media establishment decide what he's saying isn't worth hearing.

Yeah that's fair. He absolutely needs a better strategy for dealing with the press than Corbyn had.

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Absolutely disgraceful scenes in Brockwell Park yesterday. Look at the state of these selfish b'stards. If this continues, none of us will be allowed to leave our homes to exercise.

 

 

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Problem with this is, they are all keeping social distancing, most people are staying well away from one another. 
 

Logically they are following the advice.

I think the issue is really if everyone decided to go out at the same time, then it could get very crowded, so telling everyone to stay at home keeps numbers lower 

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56 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Problem with this is, they are all keeping social distancing, most people are staying well away from one another. 
 

Logically they are following the advice.

I think the issue is really if everyone decided to go out at the same time, then it could get very crowded, so telling everyone to stay at home keeps numbers lower 

From those pictures the spacing does mostly seem reasonable. There are quite a few people sitting or lying on the grass which doesn't seem to fit the instruction only to leave for exercise, crowding is less likely to be a problem when people who go out for exercise don't spend any time doing anything else.

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Yeah, it's not the spacing, it's the picnicking and sunbathing - lying on your back for a couple of hours does NOT consititute "exercise"

Nor does having an 18th birthday party with dozens of people

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2 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Yeah, it's not the spacing, it's the picnicking and sunbathing - lying on your back for a couple of hours does NOT consititute "exercise"
 

While you are correct, I’m assuming most people are thinking ‘well as long as I’m not near anybody then there isn’t an issue’. In some ways they are right, there’s not much difference sitting somewhere than there is walking around if everyone stays away from each other.

But you have to tell people to limit this behaviour because it could get out of hand and everyone doing it would cause disaster 

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Posted (edited)

The chief medical officer of Scotland in trouble for visiting her second home, obviously against her own advice.

The problem is the advice is kind of counter intuitive, you can’t go out but you can if you keep two metres away from others. They need to make it stricter if they want to be able to enforce it absolutely.

Edited by john

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18 minutes ago, john said:

The chief medical officer of Scotland in trouble for visiting her second home, obviously against her own advice.

The problem is the advice is kind of counter intuitive, you can’t go out but you can if you keep two metres away from others. They need to make it stricter if they want to be able to enforce it absolutely.

Common sense suggests there’s no harm in doing what she did if there’s nobody at her second home. This is where the problem lies.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Common sense suggests there’s no harm in doing what she did if there’s nobody at her second home. This is where the problem lies.

Least common of the senses, and inaccurate in this instance.

On an individual level, you've got a point, but if everyone else with a second home follows suit, then you've got small rural communities suddenly having outbreaks and nowhere near enough medical facilities to cope.

 

Equally, 1 couple going and sunbathing isn't going to be problematic - and if it's allowed to slide, then the next sunny day, everyone goes out and sunbathes, creating a massed spread of infection.

 

People thinking they know better because "common sense" or "it's only once" is what will lead to this thing spreading further, faster, and staying for longer.

Edited by Which Tyler

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Least common of the senses, and inaccurate in this instance.

On an individual level, you've got a point, but if everyone else with a second home follows suit, then you've got small rural communities suddenly having outbreaks and nowhere near enough medical facilities to cope.

 

Equally, 1 couple going and sunbathing isn't going to be problematic - and if it's allowed to slide, then the next sunny day, everyone goes out and sunbathes, creating a massed spread of infection

Well this is my point , on an individual level the advice makes no sense, causes almost no harm and everyone can see that. The difference is that is everyone did it then it ‘might’ lead to a problem.


So the government either has to accept this level of freedom and establish how much of a problem it is causing, or completely crack down and say it’s illegal to leave your house without permission.

Right now I’m seeing a lot of people are out, but staying very far away from each other in most cases. I’d be curious to see how much more transmission this is causing. If the goal is to make sure that transmission levels stay low, rather than aiming at elimination of the disease ( which isn’t possible) then possibly there isn’t a problem

Edited by Heartofice

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I've enjoyed some lovely exchanges on Twitter where some people have said I should educate myself because I stated that adults don't need to go outside regularly in order to maintain a functional immune system. OTOH 350 people have agreed with me so far. 

It's been challenging to be a healthcare professional recently.

It's funny that people can't differentiate between going out for a walk/to run an errand and going to sit in the park. Surely the difference is obvious? So because these people think it's harmless for them to sit in a park in the sun, we might find ourselves under even stricter rules. I mean, it doesn't bother me as much as my husband and I are both critical workers with letters from our employers which we can show if stopped by the police. 

But the people sitting in the parks probably aren't key workers. So they're just spoiling things for themselves and others. 

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Posted (edited)

One thing that keeps striking me is how different the experience of lockdown is for different parts of the country. I live in a town in mid Wales. Sometimes I can hear sheep bleating from my doorstep. In theory, I could cycle all day along country lanes and have to try quite hard to come within two metres of anyone, because there are so few people about. (Before I get yelled at, I don't actually do this). I think on the whole it's much tougher for Londoners and to a lesser degree for people from Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds etc. I've seen it suggested that golf courses should be pressured/ordered to open themselves to the public. That could take some pressure off the parks. 

Edited by dog-days

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

Well this is my point , on an individual level the advice makes no sense, causes almost no harm and everyone can see that. The difference is that is everyone did it then it ‘might’ lead to a problem.


So the government either has to accept this level of freedom and establish how much of a problem it is causing, or completely crack down and say it’s illegal to leave your house without permission.

Right now I’m seeing a lot of people are out, but staying very far away from each other in most cases. I’d be curious to see how much more transmission this is causing. If the goal is to make sure that transmission levels stay low, rather than aiming at elimination of the disease ( which isn’t possible) then possibly there isn’t a problem

Nope.

On an individual basis it "might" lead to a problem.

On a massed basis it will lead to a "problem" - if thousand to hundreds of thousands of dead people can be dismissed as a "problem"

 

There really isn't that much wriggle room on the exercise front - you are alowe out to exercise. You are not allowed out to sunbathe. What there is, is too much selfishness and (deliberate) failure to understand.

If that persists (selfishness) then yes, HMG wil have to impose an outright ban on people leaving the house for anything other than food and medical supplies. Which will have a massive burden on physical and mental health. Because selfish idiots are selfish and idiotic.

 

Lots of people are out. Some are keeping their 2m apart, others are having a dozen mates around for a few drinks. Some are keeping clear of disallowed zones, others are ducking under the police tape. Oh, and the 2m thing - that's far from absolute it's just a matter of risk. We're talking about a virus that can live for an hour or so dispersed in the air (smaller droplets), and can be transmitted way beyond 2m by anyone coughing or sneezing. Please don't go around thinking that the 2m rule is 100% effective and all that's needed. That sort of thinking leads to many, many more people dying, even if all the other rules are adhered to.

 

The problem is not that people are allowed outside for an hour or so to exercise. It's that people are selfish arseholes who are happy for more people to die, so long as they get their suntan / pissed with their mates. IMO the worst offenders (groups, not the 2m distancers) should not just get their £60 fine - they should be up for manslaughter.

Edited by Which Tyler

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Her Maj has the most preposterous accent in the history of the world. 

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2 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

On an individual basis it "might" lead to a problem.

A person driving with their family to another house, not coming into contact with other human beings during that time, then driving home. There 'might' be a problem but the chances are very small. If lots of people were doing it.. yeah it 'might' lead to more contagion.. but if they all kept well away from each other it's difficult to say it will kill hundreds of thousands of people.

Quote

There really isn't that much wriggle room on the exercise front - you are alowe out to exercise. You are not allowed out to sunbathe. What there is, is too much selfishness and (deliberate) failure to understand.

But really there is little difference in a bunch of people out running in a park and the same amount of people in a park, and some are sunbathing. I walked through a park yesterday and saw a couple of people sitting about on their own, far away from anyone else. They had far less chance of catching something than I did as I walked along a path and dodged out of the way of people, or when I have to visit the supermarket. 

But I think we are in agreement here. The reason there is a call to ban sunbathing is because if the government said it was allowed, lots of people might do it and then when they all get close together the risk of spread shoots up. So really you have to tell people not to do something even if the current behaviour is mostly ok, to prevent giving over the message that everyone can do it. 

Even so I think in general the message has gotten across to people, the morons who go out and have parties are a tiny minority, overwhelmingly I think most people are doing a good job of being sensible. 

 

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Posted (edited)

"Her Maj has the most preposterous accent in the history of the world."

I thought that was Geordies. :)

Edited by Hereward

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