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Tywin Manderly

US Politics: Get Tested or Get Bested

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13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It is, but irrational times can produce irrational outcomes. Like I said before, what I was describing isn't a likely outcome, but it is more plausible than at any other time, and during a pandemic, free healthcare for everyone has appeals.

And sorry, I should have been more careful with my language. Replace "liberal" with "Sanders supporter who loves M4A, but isn't a loyal Democrat." 

I'm not sure how likely the 30% unemployment scenario is but I otherwise agree with you. If we hit 30% unemployment and don't have a quick recovery once the lockdowns end, anything could happen, for good or ill. That's Great Depression territory and we'd probably be looking at a Great Depression level wipeout for the Republican Party. Or the start of the Trump dictatorship. In any case, we'd be well outside of normal electoral politics so we'd do well to show some humility instead of making declarations about what can't possibly happen. 

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I really don't want to belittle the idea of 100k dead, but is that realistic?  Did 45 botch things just that bad?  Or when things recover and it's less than 10k (and to be clear, one is too many, this whole thing was botched terribly), he can claim he saved tens of thousands as some sort of ploy?  

Gods I hate even thinking that.  My sister is a nurse and I have zero idea how she is right now.  

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The reason he went with that number now is that it is among the lowest realistic numbers. Also the reason he "suddenly" became aware of the 1,6 - 2,2 million worst case scenario. 

He's trying to reframe everything so that he'll continue to look good in his own eyes. Changing the story.

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2 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

I really don't want to belittle the idea of 100k dead, but is that realistic?  Did 45 botch things just that bad?  Or when things recover and it's less than 10k (and to be clear, one is too many, this whole thing was botched terribly), he can claim he saved tens of thousands as some sort of ploy?  

Gods I hate even thinking that.  My sister is a nurse and I have zero idea how she is right now.   

Less than 10k is looking extremely unlikely, since deaths are a lagging indicator and cases are still rising every day.  Under 100k is definitely still possible if the US gets its act together, but Trump is just trying to manage expectations, because that's all he has.  His response has been atrocious, and his go to approach of asserting dominance over governors, congress and the media isn't sustainable, because in a crisis people want their government to actually work. 

FYI, Trump's tiny bounce in the polls the past two weeks is disheartening, but I'm not terribly worried about it.  Looks like classic rally around the flag, and essentially every single governor in America got a bigger bump than Trump, because people can see that the governors are actually doing something to help people, whereas Trump is just assigning blame.  If the Democrats hadn't picked such a weak candidate, I would be feeling downright confident (in the election, not in the next 6 months, which will be terrible). 

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46 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

I'm not sure how likely the 30% unemployment scenario is but I otherwise agree with you. If we hit 30% unemployment and don't have a quick recovery once the lockdowns end, anything could happen, for good or ill. That's Great Depression territory and we'd probably be looking at a Great Depression level wipeout for the Republican Party. Or the start of the Trump dictatorship. In any case, we'd be well outside of normal electoral politics so we'd do well to show some humility instead of making declarations about what can't possibly happen. 

Two weeks ago I speculated on the possibility of supply chains being cut, and was widely dismissed. Now it's something you see being regularly talked about on the news. And that makes me happy, because people are finally thinking about it. Now to be clear, there is plenty of food, but foodies like me are going to have to accept less organic skinless chicken breasts and more dinosaur chicken nuggets, but that's life.

Speaking more broadly though, we need to accept that we have no idea what's going to happen. It's been a century since we've seen something like this, and the world is so different today, both in positive and negative ways. 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Rorshach said:

The reason he went with that number now is that it is among the lowest realistic numbers. Also the reason he "suddenly" became aware of the 1,6 - 2,2 million worst case scenario. 

He's trying to reframe everything so that he'll continue to look good in his own eyes. Changing the story.

We currently have a 1.5% fatality rate with massive under counting on all fronts. Assuming that rate holds, and the estimates of 70-150 million are accurate, yeah, 100k would really be an amazing achievement. 

ETA: Dr Birx said yesterday that it will be 200,00 if we do everything perfectly. 

Edited by Tywin et al.

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I can’t see the number being below 10,000. You could see 10,000 in Florida alone. The governor has done very little to stop spread in the state. The televised stories showing the state police stopping traffic at Florida's borders looked pro-active, if you’re an idiot, but that barn was empty a long time ago.

I understand, it’s hot, and there’s a beach. We had a few hours of sunshine on Sunday and there were way too many people out walking, so I can see a lockdown’s going to be hard to do in Florida. Money has won out over health, though.

I have been watching the plight of the poor people on the Holland of America cruise ship. The Florida governor wants to refuse to allow them to dock. The ship is full of elderly Americans, and Florida is the center of the cruise ship industry. Florida will never get one bloody cent from me again as long as I live if that shithead gets away with that crime.

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15 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I can’t see the number being below 10,000. You could see 10,000 in Florida alone. The governor has done very little to stop spread in the state. The televised stories showing the state police stopping traffic at Florida's borders looked pro-active, if you’re an idiot, but that barn was empty a long time ago.

I understand, it’s hot, and there’s a beach. We had a few hours of sunshine on Sunday and there were way too many people out walking, so I can see a lockdown’s going to be hard to do in Florida. Money has won out over health, though.

I have been watching the plight of the poor people on the Holland of America cruise ship. The Florida governor wants to refuse to allow them to dock. The ship is full of elderly Americans, and Florida is the center of the cruise ship industry. Florida will never get one bloody cent from me again as long as I live if that shithead gets away with that crime.

Eh, less that than a lifestyle won out, and parts of Florida have very unique ones. Me thinks you've seen very different parts of that state than myself. I'm curious how many people caught the rona from doing blow on shared surfaces. 

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6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Eh, less that than a lifestyle won out, and parts of Florida have very unique ones. Me thinks you've seen very different parts of that state than myself. I'm curious how many people caught the rona from doing blow on shared surfaces. 

Please do not use that word, like that jerk in the Covid-19 thread. 

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4 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Please do not use that word, like that jerk in the Covid-19 thread. 

Look at the context of the joke....

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39 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Two weeks ago I speculated on the possibility of supply chains being cut, and was widely dismissed. Now it's something you see being regularly talked about on the news. And that makes me happy, because people are finally thinking about it.

Be honest, you'd be happy to watch all of us starve if it meant you could say you were right. :P

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

Be honest, you'd be happy to watch all of us starve if it meant you could say you were right. :P

Not all of you. We'll stick to Thanos levels.

For now. 

Edited by Tywin et al.

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23 minutes ago, sologdin said:

classic rally around the flag

this is the best evidence for turning half the country into a re-education camp.  FFS. the irrationality of being persuaded by trauma to become more compliant with fiction not readily measurable.  

May I recommend one of those Disney Cruise Ships for that purpose.

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1 hour ago, Rorshach said:

The reason he went with that number now is that it is among the lowest realistic numbers. Also the reason he "suddenly" became aware of the 1,6 - 2,2 million worst case scenario. 

He's trying to reframe everything so that he'll continue to look good in his own eyes. Changing the story.

Yep, was just coming here to post that. He's been convinced that there are going to be a lot of deaths, so, he went from "15 cases, soon to be zero", to "it'll be a huge triumph of my administration if we manage to keep deaths at 100,000".

Then, when or if, we hit each "milestone", the numbers will be adjusted upwards accordingly so he can claim victory each time.

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So as of this morning, 23/24 states with Democratic governors are under stay-at-home orders, whereas only 11/26 states with Republican governors are under them.

Speaks volumes about how political affiliation is still impacting how people are responding to a fucking virus.

Also, anyone know what's up with Maine? They're the Democratic outlier.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Fez said:

So as of this morning, 23/24 states with Democratic governors are under stay-at-home orders, whereas only 11/26 states with Republican governors are under them.

Speaks volumes about how political affiliation is still impacting how people are responding to a fucking virus.

Also, anyone know what's up with Maine? They're the Democratic outlier.

To be fair, there's also a strong rural/urban divide (and of course rural states are more likely to have a Republican governor).  States with most of the population living in smaller towns are seeing less spread thus far, and thus stringent measures are not seen as "necessary".  Maine and Montana are the two most rural states with a Democratic governor, so it's not surprising one of those would be last. 

I know that Abbot in Texas is under pressure to declare a statewide stay-at-home order by the mayors of Dallas, Houston, Austin, etc, but is resisting it because he doesn't think it is necessary in more rural areas that make up his political base.  But he's going to have to give in soon, Dallas especially is getting pretty close to meltdown. 

EDIT:  I spoke with one of my friends who is a doctor in Maine a week ago, and he said that as of then, Coronavirus was a complete nonfactor in his hospital.  That actually things were very slow, because people were avoiding the hospital for regular things AND there wasn't yet a rush of COVID cases.  I don't know if that is still true, since the number of confirmed cases have increased from 107 to 275 in the past week. 

Edited by Maithanet

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15 minutes ago, Fez said:

Also, anyone know what's up with Maine? They're the Democratic outlier.

Don’t most Stephen King stories take place in Maine?

Just sayin’…

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Don’t most Stephen King stories take place in Maine?

Just sayin’…

Spend any time in Maine besides the Portland food scene stuff and it's pretty obvious what a good son of the local sod Mr. King is.

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