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Tywin Manderly

US Politics: Get Tested or Get Bested

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16 hours ago, SpaceChampion said:

I remember back in highschool math classes,  pandemic infections were one of the main examples used to illustrate exponential growth.  Is that not the case for Americans?

You have to understand, if a science teacher in America did that, they'd be run from the profession for espousing anti-Christian messages. How this would relate to that? I have no idea. But it would happen.

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He wants to quarantine / lock down New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Nothing in nothing out.  He just said it.

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23 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Hospital beds have been cut everywhere, because these days we're healthier. The beds aren't filled with polio victims and measles, mumps and chicken pox patients. Or as many motor vehicle accident victims. Or women who just had babies and stayed in hospital for 2 or 3 weeks. Now its's 2 or 3 days. The US hospital system has one of the lowest utilization rates in the first world - 65%. In Canada our hospital bed utilization rate is 93%.

Do you keep the beds open, or do you throw up emergency hospitals if there's a pandemic?

And, correct me if I'm wrong, didn't Trump's tax cuts hit blue states very hard in the budget, by cutting tax revenue?

So the US has about 5% more beds per 1000 people than Canada (2.9 v 2.7 according to the stats I saw).  I get that all not all beds are ICU with ventilators etc, but the US could handle a 50% surge in hospitalizations while Canada could handle an 8% increase.  For beds at least, no idea about staffing.  Serious zero snark question, why such a large difference?  Utilization is higher in Canada when patients have no or at least vastly lower marginal cost?

But the socialized version doesn't seem as robust, does it?

18 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

One thing I've noticed is that a lot of long time posters who stopped posting have returned.

Where the fuck is @TrackerNeil!!!

He's been around in the last year or two, I think, but three times now I've seen the Coronaman thread and though Coco was back at first.

18 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I'll take my side's rapist. It's one thing to have treated governing a state as a zero-sum exercise of political gamesmanship but Republicans literally set the decency bar at 0.

Joe could rape ten women this month and as long as he looks moderately ashamed of himself when questioned, he's my guy.

Is this a grab em by the pussy reference?  That was so clearly in the context of women that willingly use their sexuality to chase celebrity instead of say, soup kitchen volunteers or nuns or women as 3.5 billion at large category, that I think it's a terrible disservice to try to conflate that with sexual assault.

There was also that group of people that said Trump assaulted them in first class, but that's about as credible as the Kavanaugh spiking the punch for rape gang accusations considering the stakes and especially the timing.  If there's another incident I'm missing, I'm sure it will be pointed out.

I really wouldn't put much stock in the Tara Reade accusation though.  At least unless the National Enquirer starts reporting it.  They were way ahead of the curve on Rielle Hunter story, so when it comes to reporting on Democrat sex scandals, I'd trust them ahead of party mouthpieces like NYT or WaPo or Vox.

All that aside Jace, it's illuminating to see you take sexual assault so not seriously when it's potentially your guy as the accused.  Frankly I think this is going to get traction precisely because 2020 version of Biden is such a terrible candidate, but the DNC is going to have to feather it just so to get Biden aside, their pick in, and keep Bernie out.

18 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

One never knows what thread to post in...

Last week at this time there were 18,000 coronavirus cases in the US. There are over 100,000 today. 18+18=36, 36+36=72, 72+28=100,000. 72 x .4=28

If this continues at a pace, 100+100=200, 200+200=400, 400+160=560,000. 400 x .4=160

That's going to cause some serious political problems.

 

Exponential growth is always and everywhere only a short term approximation.  There are always limits.  We need more testing of the at large population to get a better handle on actual rates of infection, recovery, and fatalities.

Infection rates are always going to be partially a function of testing rates.  Testing rate has gone up, cases have too.  Even fatalities per capita is an inelegant measure, unless they were testing everyone who died of non trauma causes.  But it is a much better measure.

Perhaps what you meant to say was "hopefully framing it this way will cause some serious political problems for Trump".  Seems to be why the media is enamored of absolute cases this week, while when POTUS said more tests done than anyone else, it was all "you have to use per capita".  Party of science lolz.

17 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

they don't appear to grasp the concept of 'near exponential growth.'  I tried explaining this to one of my conservative coworkers a few pages ago; his reaction was much the same as these people 'huh? that can't be right.'

Also (again linked to a page or three back) is a right wing article pointing out the COVID 19 numbers are all wrong; according to them we are on the downside of the curve because the true CV pandemic was over the holidaze.  (and because a lot of people were deathly ill in that time frame, the claim garners a bit of traction)

As said, total infections are going to be more like a sigmoid curve, there's a part where that's exponential growth, but there are certainly going to be limiting factors.  I happen to agree that social distancing etc is a good idea right now, but let's not get married to extrapolations even once more data may become available.

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3 minutes ago, Zorral said:

He wants to quarantine / lock down New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Nothing in nothing out.  He just said it.

That would be insane (because of food and other supplies) and it's not what he said:

Quote

Trump, however, said that possible quarantine would be "enforceable" and "restrict travel" from those parts of the tri-state area. He also said any quarantine wouldn't affect truckers from outside the New York area.

So people can't leave, but trucks can come and go. Also, it's not obvious he has the authority to do that at all without the governors of these states.

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2 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

He's been around in the last year or two, I think, but three times now I've seen the Coronaman thread and though Coco was back at first.

Who is this Coco you speak of?

TAKE ME TO YOUR LEADER!!!!

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5 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

So the US has about 5% more beds per 1000 people than Canada (2.9 v 2.7 according to the stats I saw).  I get that all not all beds are ICU with ventilators etc, but the US could handle a 50% surge in hospitalizations while Canada could handle an 8% increase.  For beds at least, no idea about staffing.  Serious zero snark question, why such a large difference?  Utilization is higher in Canada when patients have no or at least vastly lower marginal cost?

But the socialized version doesn't seem as robust, does it?

You know what they say, there are lies, damn lies and statistics. 

The post was in response to the claim that first, Cuomo was cutting hospital beds, and second, cutting funding to Medicaid. Ergo, my response that hospital beds have been cut everywhere because people are healthier.  The US health care system is largely private, and extremely expensive, twice as expensive as Canada's, for example. Does the US have those hospital beds because of the generosity of your system or because of the medical business's ability to extract more and more money out of the public? Are the beds empty because you are so healthy or because people can't afford hospitalization? Canadians, btw, have a longer life expectancy than Americans, and your rate of maternal mortality is the worst in the first world. Beds in hospitals are so full in Canada not for some failing of our medical system (and it ain't perfect by any means), but because there is a shortage of long term health care facilities ie nursing homes. People are in hospital while they wait for a bed elsewhere. If we have a 'surge' they'll do exactly what NYC has done and open beds in a conference centre for non-covid cases.

And, incidentally, can you explain why the US has more than twice the number of Covid-19 cases, proportionally, than Canada does, and 4x the fatality rate? Surely under our shitty socialist system our numbers would be so very much worse, would they not? Knock on wood, ours don't get worse and your numbers improve. Unfortunately, even though the US has at least twice as many ICU beds as Canada, I think it's you guys who are running out of capacity.

And about the cuts to Medicaid comment - iirc, everyone said Trump's tax cuts seemed to specifically include provisions that would cut tax income to blue states. New York was hit hard, wasn't it? Please, correct if I'm wrong, and blue states did not lose revenue from taxation.

37 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Exponential growth is always and everywhere only a short term approximation.  There are always limits.  We need more testing of the at large population to get a better handle on actual rates of infection, recovery, and fatalities.

Infection rates are always going to be partially a function of testing rates.  Testing rate has gone up, cases have too.  Even fatalities per capita is an inelegant measure, unless they were testing everyone who died of non trauma causes.  But it is a much better measure.

Perhaps what you meant to say was "hopefully framing it this way will cause some serious political problems for Trump".  Seems to be why the media is enamored of absolute cases this week, while when POTUS said more tests done than anyone else, it was all "you have to use per capita".  Party of science lolz.

 

Canada has tested waaaaaaaayyyyyy more than the US. Per capita. And the argument "oh, now it's about per capita" fuck yeah, of course it's about per capita. How the hell else do you know the extent of the problem? I have no idea how long exponential growth will last, but I don't think it will disappear in the next 7 days.

And when I said exponential growth is going to cause some political problems, well, just who exactly is running the country? Who said 'there's 15 cases and that's it"? Who said "don't talk to the governor of Washington and that woman in Michigan"?.

Also, every state that is still not taking things seriously.

And still there are not enough testkits. The governor of Nevada said yesterday they've asked 4 times for testkits and have been sent none. Oh, wait, could he possibly be a Democrat? I just looked that up, I didn't know. Why am I not surprised? They got 1,000 shipped in from Macau by a casino owner, for crying out loud. Stuff like that is going to cause political problems.

After this is all over there should be a joint Senate/Congressional commission to find out how things got so screwed up. Somehow I don't think "Obama left me a totally broken system" is going to be the reason.

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53 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Who is this Coco you speak of?

TAKE ME TO YOUR LEADER!!!!

Summer child.  He was a respected though seldom agreed with poster back when you were still popping zits on your funny face and jacking off to the lingerie section of the Sears catalog.

2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

And about the cuts to Medicaid comment - iirc, everyone said Trump's tax cuts seemed to specifically include provisions that would cut tax income to blue states. New York was hit hard, wasn't it? Please, correct if I'm wrong, and blue states did not lose revenue from taxation.

 

Meant to respond this last time, but again, box wine. 

That round of tax cuts limited the state and local taxes (aka SALT) deduction to 10k.  That is, state and local taxes are only now deductible up to $10,000, where previously you typically paid no federal tax on any amount of payments to the state or local govt (absent maybe perhaps AMT and other sorts of more fringe cases).  The primary schedule A (itemized) deduction being typically local real estate taxes, charity, and mortgage interest deductions (along with relatively high out of pocket medical expenses even for the US), this meant that if you had a lot of mortgage interest in a moderate to high tax district, you (to use the language of those that talk about ordinary business deductions for oil companies as tax subsidies) used to get a subsidy on your federal income taxes if you paid a lot of mortgage interest and/or local property taxes that then got limited at 10k.  But other than perhaps increasing the gross amount of income that flowed through to your state return, that had nothing to do with what the state and local jurisdictions charged you for taxes.

Note that for most middle income and lower income people, the standard deduction increased at the same time, so that it more often became pointless to bother with Schedule A regardless, and those people ended up showing less taxable income, at a lower marginal rate.  (Despite all of the articles trying to argue the contrary.  Lies, damned lies, and the democrat media complex).

The actual issue was that taxes went UP for high income blue zip codes on the whole.  State and local taxes weren't reduced at all.  (In fact, if I understand the interplay of both systems in CT, where I live, if your net federal goes up because of the SALT limitation, the taxable amount that the state return starts at also goes up!).

It was mostly a case of people asking for more government, paying for it. 

Personally, in the first year of that limitation, I got hit slightly on the SALT limitation, but being self employed, I think I got a larger benefit from some other tax wrinkles to compensate.  Though I live in a fairly modest 2 bedroom condo worth less than $150k in an area where $500k to $1m houses are, while not the majority, not at all uncommon.  Sustainability FTW!

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7 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Summer child.  He was a respected though seldom agreed with poster back when you were still popping zits on your funny face and jacking off to the lingerie section of the Sears catalog.

Never really got zits on my face outside of football season, and what's a Sears catalog? 

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Posted (edited)

Just imagine Gary Busey saying it.  Kids today.

Edited by mcbigski

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Never really got zits on my face outside of football season, and what's a Sears catalog? 

long ago, in the days before Al Gore invented the Internet, the Sears Catalog was a thick, glossy book listing Sear's entire inventory that would appear a couple times a year.  Big even for those of us living way out in the sticks.  Would be carefully inspected and pondered for days.

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4 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

long ago, in the days before Al Gore invented the Internet, the Sears Catalog was a thick, glossy book listing Sear's entire inventory that would appear a couple times a year.  Big even for those of us living way out in the sticks.  Would be carefully inspected and pondered for days.

My mom used to get those. They had some weird shit in them. One time she wanted to buy this self-ironing device, but my pops wasn't having it. 

Also, needs to be pointed out. We didn't own an iron or a board. So it's not like she was looking to save herself some work, just back then toys for women were things like vacuums and hair rollers.

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1 hour ago, Simon Steele said:

You have to understand, if a science teacher in America did that, they'd be run from the profession for espousing anti-Christian messages. How this would relate to that? I have no idea. But it would happen.

Not true. We talk exponential growth in my HS  bacteria unit.

Also most Christians are pro science. Only evagelicals are not. But they scream the loudest so thats who the media listens to. It also gives great comfort to Lefties to think all Christians are evangelicals.

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6 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Also, needs to be pointed out. We didn't own an iron or a board. So it's not like she was looking to save herself some work, just back then toys for women were things like vacuums and hair rollers.

They weren't gifted detachable shower heads. 

 

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Posted (edited)

How did this this bigsty get himself so filled with fertilizer he could fertilize an entire county of corn all by himself?  Must watch fnoose 24/7 while drinking kool-aid.

How did this country's health care get so broken? Decades of insurance companies' policies to gouge, not insure, decades of privatization of hospitals for profit, not health care, decades of medical school so expensive nobody wanted to even think of doing general medicine, but only the really high ticket specialties including cosmetic surgery, decades of cutting public health budgets for everything from treating the mentally ill to the homeless, while insuring housing keeps sky rocketing. O on and on and on.  Its decades of treating health care is another resource to plunder, rather than to keep the nation healthy, dealing with health care as crisis rather than as public good that benefits us all.

 

Edited by Zorral

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18 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

My mom used to get those. They had some weird shit in them. One time she wanted to buy this self-ironing device, but my pops wasn't having it. 

Also, needs to be pointed out. We didn't own an iron or a board. So it's not like she was looking to save herself some work, just back then toys for women were things like vacuums and hair rollers.

Possibly your mom had proclivities you would never have thought to consider?  I mean you seem so normal... ;) 

But seriously I thought a Point Break reference would just get a chuckle or two and move on, not any sort of side thread.

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49 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

long ago, in the days before Al Gore invented the Internet, the Sears Catalog was a thick, glossy book listing Sear's entire inventory that would appear a couple times a year.  Big even for those of us living way out in the sticks.  Would be carefully inspected and pondered for days.

Man, I remember picking out my Christmas wish list for my letter to Santa out of the Sears catalog.

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52 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

Not true. We talk exponential growth in my HS  bacteria unit.

Also most Christians are pro science. Only evagelicals are not. But they scream the loudest so thats who the media listens to. It also gives great comfort to Lefties to think all Christians are evangelicals.

Not true. I worked in a small conservative, very religious town, and the Methodist core of that town ran a science teacher off for getting too close to evolution. Absolutely science is an endangered subject in this country.

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3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

@Mlle. Zabzie,

Escape from New York City seems to have been a wise decision.  

A classic. Not my favorite Carpenter movie, but a classic. And better than the escape from LA sequel. If you ever wondered what the next lockdown location was gonna be.

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A possible ray of hope.  I do wonder if Trump will try to kill it, as more tests = more verified CV cases = Trump looking bad, though:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-game-changer-fda-authorizes-abbott-labs-portable-5-minute-coronavirus-test-the-size-of-a-toaster/ar-BB11PVCI?ocid=ob-fb-enus-580&fbclid=IwAR2C__M75v3ADBkTOjd52ik08ka01yzALPJ3d-wafXKne-ztczfRiSREZsQ

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued Emergency Use Authorization to Illinois-based medical device maker Abbott Labs on Friday for a coronavirus test that delivers positive results in as little as five minutes and negative results in 13 minutes, the company said.

Bing COVID-19 tracker: Latest numbers by country and state

The company expects the tests to be available next week and expects to ramp up manufacturing to deliver 50,000 tests per day.

Start the day smarter. Get all the news you need in your inbox each morning.

"I am pleased that the FDA authorized Abbott's point-of-care test yesterday. This is big news and will help get more of these tests out in the field rapidly," FDA Commissioner Steve Hahn said in a statement. "We know how important it is to get point-of-care tests out in the field quickly. These tests that can give results quickly can be a game changer in diagnosing COVID-19."

Get daily coronavirus updates in your inbox: Sign up for our newsletter now.

Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, echoed Hahn's comments on Twitter, calling the development a "game changer." Gottlieb also said it’s "very likely" that we’ll see additional approvals of point-of-care diagnostics behind this one, extending testing to doctor offices across the U.S.

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